Sportsnet: JVR has net positive NHL metrics

[HamiltonNHL]

pretty good article.
Shows the stats on his defence aren't counting out his great offence.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/...ronto-maple-leafs-analysis-maple-leafs-roster

Click to read more...

 

[Walshy7]

pretty good article.
Shows the stats on his defence aren't counting out his great offence.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/...ronto-maple-leafs-analysis-maple-leafs-roster

nice send it to the other 30 GM's ASAP, "see he isn't THAT bad". Trade him

 

[Brock Radunske]

I'm fine trading JVR but I'd love if he took a foolish discount and stayed for a shot at a Cup. Bozak too, for that matter.
The issue isn't with their current play. The issue is how will their current play look with 1 mil (TB)/2 mil (JVR) tacked on to their deals.
What they bring for 4-4.5 mil is awesome.

 

[SprDaVE]

He's a good player. The flack he gets while some barely get anything is pretty weird around here.

 

[HockeyThoughts]

I'm fine trading JVR but I'd love if he took a foolish discount and stayed for a shot at a Cup. Bozak too, for that matter.
The issue isn't with their current play. The issue is how will their current play look with 1 mil (TB)/2 mil (JVR) tacked on to their deals.
What they bring for 4-4.5 mil is awesome.

JVR =/= Tyler Bozak

While both are below average defensively - JVR is a proven 30G-30A player and valuable net front presence.

Re-signing Bozak at his current rate would be completely unnecessary and poor cap management.

 

[Brock Radunske]

JVR =/= Tyler Bozak

While both are below average defensively - JVR is a proven 30G-30A player and valuable net front presence.

Re-signing Bozak at his current rate would be completely unnecessary and poor cap management.

Yeh but my "foolish discount" that I had in mind was something like;

JVR - 5x5
Bozak - 3x3

Unrealistic, of course but really that's the only way I seem them being a part of this team going forward.

 

[Walshy7]

JVR =/= Tyler Bozak

While both are below average defensively - JVR is a proven 30G-30A player and valuable net front presence.

Re-signing Bozak at his current rate would be completely unnecessary and poor cap management.

saying this is like calling Bozak a 50 point C. JVR has done that exactly 1 time, he has another season of 60 points too (29g-33a) to be fair. But if doing something once is proven Kulemin is a 30 goal scorer

 

[Not My Tempo]

Yeh but my "foolish discount" that I had in mind was something like;

JVR - 5x5
Bozak - 3x3

Unrealistic, of course but really that's the only way I seem them being a part of this team going forward.

You can sign JVR for 8 years and just use the compliance buyout on him after the next lockout


(I’m joking but I’m sure NHL GMs think about it all the time when signing these guys to long term deals)

 

[thewave]

JVR is a damn good player. Those that blamed him just don't know what's going on. He is good, not great defensively but a good player and valuable to any team including ours in the right situation.

When we got Marleau I thought it was for C to replace Bozak. They made him a wing and now he is a C replacing Bozak tonight.

Watch JVR look better with Marleau, but it may take him a bit to adapt. You won't be complaining so much when an aware player finds him and we are not always hemmed in.

 

[Brock Radunske]

You can sign JVR for 8 years and just use the compliance buyout on him after the next lockout


(I’m joking but I’m sure NHL GMs think about it all the time when signing these guys to long term deals)

Haha you're probably right.
Assuming you're still a capable player, other than a bruised ego, a compliance buyout would be sweet. You get to settle up on that deal and then sign another one for similar money. Vinny made bank like that last time

 

[GoonieFace]

So did Marincin, and we all know how that turned out.

 

[Mickey Marner]

This reason why JvR has decent rel stats is because when the puck goes the other way he knaws on his mouthgaurd as he casually glides towards the bench for a change and lets his teammates defend the odd man rush.

Obviously a ~30/30 winger brings a positive net value.

 

[Morgs]

As long as he's sheltered with a lot of OZS, he's one of the better offensive players in the league.

Problem is and will always be his usage and brutal defense.

 

[HockeyThoughts]

saying this is like calling Bozak a 50 point C. JVR has done that exactly 1 time, he has another season of 60 points too (29g-33a) to be fair. But if doing something once is proven Kulemin is a 30 goal scorer

Over his last 3 full seasons, the man has registered:
30G-31A
27G-29A
29G-32A

Yeah.. I'm willing to round up a goal or two to call him a 30-30 guy

Not to mention that since joining the Leafs he has averaged:
29.4G-30A over 343GP

I think it's fair to say you know what you're getting when you sign JVR.

 

[Critical13]

saying this is like calling Bozak a 50 point C. JVR has done that exactly 1 time, he has another season of 60 points too (29g-33a) to be fair. But if doing something once is proven Kulemin is a 30 goal scorer

I am sorry but you are just straight up wrong in this case.

 

[Walshy7]

Over his last 3 full seasons, the man has registered:
30G-31A
27G-29A
29G-32A

Yeah.. I'm willing to round up a goal or two to call him a 30-30 guy

Not to mention that since joining the Leafs he has averaged:
29.4G-30A over 343GP

I think it's fair to say you know what you're getting when you sign JVR.

ok sure its nitpicking, are we rounding up bozak to a 50 point C he has averaged 51 points per 82 games since joining the leafs. Im not saying you do this but there are a lot of posters who refuse to call him a 50 point C because he has only actually hit 50points 1 time

 

[HamiltonNHL]

nice send it to the other 30 GM's ASAP, "see he isn't THAT bad". Trade him

His trade prospects at the deadline could be quite good.

 

[Walshy7]

I am sorry but you are just straight up wrong in this case.

straight up wrong how? it is a fact he has one season of 30-30 it cant be disputed, am I being nitpicky? yeah for sure but doing something once isn't proven

 

[Trapper]

He's a good player. The flack he gets while some barely get anything is pretty weird around here.

The type of player he is invites it.
Check out the thoughts on Max Patches in Montreal.
They have names such as Casparety and Minumum Pacioretty.
JVR is Patches light. One scores 35-40, the other 25-30. They are invisible when not scoring.
If JVR was signed to 3/4 more years, we probably deal with it and try to strengthen around that line (meaning Bozak out). But since he is a UFA, I have no desire to pay 6 million or 8 years, IMO he should be dealt.

 

[93LEAFS]

He's a first line complimentary winger when used correctly, that is prone to slumps and extended disappearing acts. The problem is, he doesn't play with a good center who can drive play, so a lot of the creating offense falls onto their other winger, who is an amazing young talent, but can't shoulder the load for 2 vets when they start to struggle.

 

[SprDaVE]

The type of player he is invites it.
Check out the thoughts on Max Patches in Montreal.
They have names such as Casparety and Minumum Pacioretty.
JVR is Patches light. One scores 35-40, the other 25-30. They are invisible when not scoring.
If JVR was signed to 3/4 more years, we probably deal with it and try to strengthen around that line (meaning Bozak out). But since he is a UFA, I have no desire to pay 6 million or 8 years, IMO he should be dealt.

I can agree but it's still weird that he gets a lot of flack but Komarov doesn't, for example.

Either way, I also agree with the fact that he should have been traded. We had SO MANY options to replace him. I don't understand the Leafs logic here. It made no sense keeping him past this summer.

Lamoriello deserves a lot of flack for his asset management decisions.

 

[Mess]

JVR ability to pot 30 goals in a league that is challenged for goal scorers gives him more rope to hang himself to offset his defensive weaknesses.

It was the same for Kessel as well. Like Kessel previously JVR should follow him out the door.

However at some point you can only shelter these players so much when you have true desires to win by fixing known weaknesses.

 

[zeke]

pretty good article.
Shows the stats on his defence aren't counting out his great offence.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/...ronto-maple-leafs-analysis-maple-leafs-roster

unfortunately this article once again dismisses quality of competition, which is the single biggest blindspot in current analytics. usage does matter, even if analytics are having a very hard time adjusting for the impact.

JVR this year plus last year:

50.2 xgf% = pretty much break even
-1.6 xgf% rel = below average when compared to the rest of the team
28.88 toiqoc = not super-sheltered but definitely below average quality of competition (this would be graded B- competition if you split up qualcomp into grades).

so JVR actually has a negative xgf% relative to the team, and he does this in pretty soft usage. But it's actually not that bad, especially given his offensive production.

But what does make him look better is that he does much better in this regard than his most common linemates:

Marner: 49.4xgf% (-2.4rel), 28.84toiqoc (B-)
Bozak: 48.7xgf% (-4.0rel), 28.88toiqoc (B-)

Marner a bit worse than JVR in the same usage, Bozak much worse in the same usage.

So there's the distinct possibility that his linemates have been dragging him down, especially Bozak, and that he might turn into a legit good possession player on a different line.

We'll get our first chance at seeing that tonight.

 

[thewave]

I think it's Brown on that line, not Marner.

But I am worried about Marleau's ability to handle center. There's no guarantee he can handle it better than Bozak at this point, so we'll see.

That's true. Can't argue that. Glad its Brown he is a real work horse. You would think the best JVR lines would be...


JVR Nylander Brown
JVR Kadri Brown
JVR Matthews Brown

The reasoning is Brown is good in all situations and also has a sniper shot. It leaves JVR in tight around the net, Brown at mid range and the Cs link it all together.

Marleau is certainly experimental.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Yes and this is why I maintain if we are keeping Matthews/Nylander together, we upgrade that 3C spot ASAP. Matthews/Kadri is 1/2 duo you can win with, but Marner is going to need someone very strong on the 3C metrics. I'm not looking for a 50 point 3C, merely someone who is not lost in the play and cover Marner so he can do his Marner things. Zeke is the expert on these stats, not sure if he can locate the best 3C fit we should be looking at. Someone in the 23-25 year old range.
I think a 3rd line of Leivo/Marleau-C-Marner is a nice overhaul. Matthews stays with Nylander if that's the long range plan.

I can't help but think running a whole team to shelter Marner isn't the smart move. He could be valuable in a trade if it comes to that. We have lots of wingers.

Does every team have a glut of wingers ?