TB87
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn
- May 30, 2018
- 6,099
- 17,162
JVR grew up in Toronto
A metric that no one uses, but I've created - GF - xGF, i.e., how many goals does a player create above expected scoring?
Is it fluctuations or meaningful?
3 year totals (should eliminate fluctuations with a large sample size):
Granlund +42
Laine +41
Barkov +40
P Kane +37
Scheifele +37
Hoffman +35
Jagr +35
Kucherov +34
MacKinnon +34
Stamkos +33
Point +32
Ovechkin +32
Rakell +31
Malkin +28
Panarin +28
Stone +27
Neiddereiter +27
Monahan +25
Ehlers +25
Couts +25
Huberdeau +25
Marchand +24Karlsson +24
Oshie +24
Palat +24
Domi +24
Tarasenko +23
Zucker +23
Brassard +23
Haula +23
Backstrom +22
Marchessault +20
Black holes:
PEB -16
Staal -20
Dowd -21
Read -21
Wingels -22
B McGinn -23
Lewis - 25
Tierney -26
Shore -27
Clifford -28
Lindholm -29
Interesting looking at the worst xGA players and their xGFrel
Scorers are going to generally have bad xGA, but can balance it with, well, scoring:
xGA/xGF/xGFrel
McDavid 62.73/54.88/+6.54 - worst xGA in the league but makes up for it
A metric that no one uses, but I've created - GF - xGF, i.e., how many goals does a player create above expected scoring?
Have at it, I just used the data on Corsica.
It probably needs some further exploration, since it's an "on ice" metric.
So is it due to matchups, or the composition of the lines.
My preliminary hunch is that it reflects shooting and setting up linemates who can shoot, a great shooter will score above his xGF b/c it's based on average shooting from different spots. It also may reflect setting up screens, since I don't think xGF takes that into account.
So you might want to look at players and line combinations, that is, does everyone on his line exceed their xGF (a group effort) or is it more player oriented?
Yes, what I'm looking at is whether the team scores more or less than expected when a player is on the ice.
The whole reason for many of these stats is to glean out player performance from team performance, and McDavid is on ice with the Oiler's best players, so the team can suck, but it could be above average when he's on the ice. This is of course why you look at both Corsi and CorsiRel, how tall are you and are you the tallest midget?
wutJVR grew up in Toronto, the Flyers are bringing back a finished product.
He doesn't have to be great defensively, just good enough that he's not a liability.
And while he's been protected in Toronto, like Voracek he's adequate enough on defense that it doesn't negate his scoring.
Interesting looking at the worst xGA players and their xGFrel
Scorers are going to generally have bad xGA, but can balance it with, well, scoring:
xGA/xGF/xGFrel
McDavid 62.73/54.88/+6.54 - worst xGA in the league but makes up for it
However, here are some big name scorers who may not be as valuable as their scoring stats indicate:
Kane 58.92/48.04/-2.36
Trocheck 57.62/45.81/-4.39
JT 56.47/46.85/-0.01
Larkin 56.32/47.93/-1.00
Hoffman 54.20/43.43/-3.53
Lee 53.44/47.07/+0.29
Bailey 52.66/44.13/-4.44
Marleau 52.50/48.35/-3.88
Others with below 50 xGF and negative xGFrel
Keller, Kessel, Stepan, Kadri, Toffoli, Vesey, Domi, Tatar, Arvidsson, Perry, Drouin, Galchenyk, Pyatt, Eller, Laine
Some Flyers
Voracek 45.01/52.27/+2.23
Couts 44.84/55.05/+6.77
Giroux 43.13/55.35/+7.11
TK 40.18/51.23/+0.98
Simmonds 37.10/49.05/-2.50
JVR 36.23/56.17/+6.78
It does help to have sheltered minutes, top scorers on 1st lines are often matched against other teams top lines.