JVR - A boost to the Flyers Depth Scoring

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
JVR grew up in Toronto, the Flyers are bringing back a finished product.
He doesn't have to be great defensively, just good enough that he's not a liability.
And while he's been protected in Toronto, like Voracek he's adequate enough on defense that it doesn't negate his scoring.

Interesting looking at the worst xGA players and their xGFrel
Scorers are going to generally have bad xGA, but can balance it with, well, scoring:
xGA/xGF/xGFrel
McDavid 62.73/54.88/+6.54 - worst xGA in the league but makes up for it

However, here are some big name scorers who may not be as valuable as their scoring stats indicate:

Kane 58.92/48.04/-2.36
Trocheck 57.62/45.81/-4.39
JT 56.47/46.85/-0.01
Larkin 56.32/47.93/-1.00
Hoffman 54.20/43.43/-3.53
Lee 53.44/47.07/+0.29
Bailey 52.66/44.13/-4.44
Marleau 52.50/48.35/-3.88
Others with below 50 xGF and negative xGFrel
Keller, Kessel, Stepan, Kadri, Toffoli, Vesey, Domi, Tatar, Arvidsson, Perry, Drouin, Galchenyk, Pyatt, Eller, Laine

Some Flyers
Voracek 45.01/52.27/+2.23
Couts 44.84/55.05/+6.77
Giroux 43.13/55.35/+7.11
TK 40.18/51.23/+0.98
Simmonds 37.10/49.05/-2.50
JVR 36.23/56.17/+6.78

It does help to have sheltered minutes, top scorers on 1st lines are often matched against other teams top lines.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
A metric that no one uses, but I've created - GF - xGF, i.e., how many goals does a player create above expected scoring?

Is it fluctuations or meaningful?
3 year totals (should eliminate fluctuations with a large sample size):
Granlund +42
Laine +41
Barkov +40
P Kane +37
Scheifele +37
Hoffman +35
Jagr +35
Kucherov +34
MacKinnon +34
Stamkos +33
Point +32
Ovechkin +32
Rakell +31
Malkin +28
Panarin +28
Stone +27
Neiddereiter +27
Monahan +25
Ehlers +25
Couts +25
Huberdeau +25
Marchand +24Karlsson +24
Oshie +24
Palat +24
Domi +24
Tarasenko +23
Zucker +23
Brassard +23
Haula +23
Backstrom +22
Marchessault +20

Black holes:
PEB -16
Staal -20
Dowd -21
Read -21
Wingels -22
B McGinn -23
Lewis - 25
Tierney -26
Shore -27
Clifford -28
Lindholm -29
 

TB87

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn
May 30, 2018
6,073
17,122
A metric that no one uses, but I've created - GF - xGF, i.e., how many goals does a player create above expected scoring?

Is it fluctuations or meaningful?
3 year totals (should eliminate fluctuations with a large sample size):
Granlund +42
Laine +41
Barkov +40
P Kane +37
Scheifele +37
Hoffman +35
Jagr +35
Kucherov +34
MacKinnon +34
Stamkos +33
Point +32
Ovechkin +32
Rakell +31
Malkin +28
Panarin +28
Stone +27
Neiddereiter +27
Monahan +25
Ehlers +25
Couts +25
Huberdeau +25
Marchand +24Karlsson +24
Oshie +24
Palat +24
Domi +24
Tarasenko +23
Zucker +23
Brassard +23
Haula +23
Backstrom +22
Marchessault +20

Black holes:
PEB -16
Staal -20
Dowd -21
Read -21
Wingels -22
B McGinn -23
Lewis - 25
Tierney -26
Shore -27
Clifford -28
Lindholm -29


This is very cool! Would you be okay if I included it in a future article? Of course, you would be credited with the data and the metrics creation.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Have at it, I just used the data on Corsica.
It probably needs some further exploration, since it's an "on ice" metric.
So is it due to matchups, or the composition of the lines.

My preliminary hunch is that it reflects shooting and setting up linemates who can shoot, a great shooter will score above his xGF b/c it's based on average shooting from different spots. It also may reflect setting up screens, since I don't think xGF takes that into account.

So you might want to look at players and line combinations, that is, does everyone on his line exceed their xGF (a group effort) or is it more player oriented?
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Flyers (3 year totals):

Couts +25
Giroux +15
TK +15
B Schenn +2
Filppula +2
Raffl -3
Weal -3
Weise -3
Leier -4
Patrick -5
Cousins -7
Voracek -7
Simmonds -9
Laughton -9
PEB -13
VdV -16
Read -21

Hagg +7
L Schenn +6
Provorov +5
Schultz 0
Ghost -1
MacDonald -2
Sanheim -5
Gudas -7
MDZ -13
Streit -15
Manning - 16
 

wankstifier

All glory to the harvest god
Jun 19, 2018
7,683
11,097
You seem confused

Interesting looking at the worst xGA players and their xGFrel
Scorers are going to generally have bad xGA, but can balance it with, well, scoring:
xGA/xGF/xGFrel
McDavid 62.73/54.88/+6.54 - worst xGA in the league but makes up for it

The Oilers are one of the worst teams in the league in xGA. Connor McDavid has a high xGA as a result.

A metric that no one uses, but I've created - GF - xGF, i.e., how many goals does a player create above expected scoring?

GF is a team stat. iGF is a player stat. A positive differential in GF-xGF means that a team scores more than expected given observed on ice shot quality. There's still confusion about how to describe a quality shot.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Yes, what I'm looking at is whether the team scores more or less than expected when a player is on the ice.

The whole reason for many of these stats is to glean out player performance from team performance, and McDavid is on ice with the Oiler's best players, so the team can suck, but it could be above average when he's on the ice. This is of course why you look at both Corsi and CorsiRel, how tall are you and are you the tallest midget?
 

TB87

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn
May 30, 2018
6,073
17,122
Have at it, I just used the data on Corsica.
It probably needs some further exploration, since it's an "on ice" metric.
So is it due to matchups, or the composition of the lines.

My preliminary hunch is that it reflects shooting and setting up linemates who can shoot, a great shooter will score above his xGF b/c it's based on average shooting from different spots. It also may reflect setting up screens, since I don't think xGF takes that into account.

So you might want to look at players and line combinations, that is, does everyone on his line exceed their xGF (a group effort) or is it more player oriented?


Teammates definitely would have an impact here. I wonder if there is a way to potentially minimize teammate impact?
 

wankstifier

All glory to the harvest god
Jun 19, 2018
7,683
11,097
Yes, what I'm looking at is whether the team scores more or less than expected when a player is on the ice.

The whole reason for many of these stats is to glean out player performance from team performance, and McDavid is on ice with the Oiler's best players, so the team can suck, but it could be above average when he's on the ice. This is of course why you look at both Corsi and CorsiRel, how tall are you and are you the tallest midget?

You're looking at whether a team scores more or less than expected, given the assigned value of unblocked shots attempted, when that player and their linemates are on the ice. I think you'd have to compare ixGF/60 and xGF/60 for a meaningful discussion on individual player influence?

A smidge more than 50% of McDavid's 5v5 points last season were away from Draisaitl. Nugent-Hopkins isn't bad, but the remaining mix of forwards weren't really 1st line players away from McDavid. I get the sense that using relCorsi and relFenwick alone fail to capture how great McDavid is. He's on a different planet
 

OrangeAndBlackMetal

Dark Wizard of the Black Cascade
Aug 14, 2009
13,348
1,533
Reykjavík
JVR grew up in Toronto, the Flyers are bringing back a finished product.
He doesn't have to be great defensively, just good enough that he's not a liability.
And while he's been protected in Toronto, like Voracek he's adequate enough on defense that it doesn't negate his scoring.

Interesting looking at the worst xGA players and their xGFrel
Scorers are going to generally have bad xGA, but can balance it with, well, scoring:
xGA/xGF/xGFrel
McDavid 62.73/54.88/+6.54 - worst xGA in the league but makes up for it

However, here are some big name scorers who may not be as valuable as their scoring stats indicate:

Kane 58.92/48.04/-2.36
Trocheck 57.62/45.81/-4.39
JT 56.47/46.85/-0.01
Larkin 56.32/47.93/-1.00
Hoffman 54.20/43.43/-3.53
Lee 53.44/47.07/+0.29
Bailey 52.66/44.13/-4.44
Marleau 52.50/48.35/-3.88
Others with below 50 xGF and negative xGFrel
Keller, Kessel, Stepan, Kadri, Toffoli, Vesey, Domi, Tatar, Arvidsson, Perry, Drouin, Galchenyk, Pyatt, Eller, Laine

Some Flyers
Voracek 45.01/52.27/+2.23
Couts 44.84/55.05/+6.77
Giroux 43.13/55.35/+7.11
TK 40.18/51.23/+0.98
Simmonds 37.10/49.05/-2.50
JVR 36.23/56.17/+6.78

It does help to have sheltered minutes, top scorers on 1st lines are often matched against other teams top lines.
wut

Edit: Oh i get it, as in he 'matured as a player in Toronto' lol
 

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