Speculation: Justin Schultz's extension

[McGlassbangers]

MacTavish:

The plan for Schultz is to look to extend him a serious offer after the deadline concludes.

“I think, with Justin, it will be after the deadline,†MacTavish said. “I’ve had some preliminary conversations with his representation and after the deadline, I think we’ll get down to more serious discussions with Justin.â€

As for whether or not MacTavish puts Schultz into the same category as Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, in terms of contract perimeters and talent, the GM said he’s of the same skill level potentially.

“It all depends on the number on the year-to-year part of the contract. If you’re asking me, do I consider Justin Schultz in that skill level, potentially? I do. I think he’s a terrific talent. I think he’s developing and has taken significant steps this year, maybe in the last six weeks, in terms of really establishing himself as a guy that’s got a very high upside.â€

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=26525

Schultz:

“I don’t regret it (signing with us) at all,†he said. “Some people might find that hard to believe but I knew it wasn’t going to be immediate winning. It’s going to take some time. Maybe this year hasn’t gone as good as we all hoped for, but I know it’s going to get better around here and it’s going to be fun.â€

On the contract front: “I’m pretty open to anything right now,†he said. “Obviously I want to stay here and play for a long time. With the young guys they have locked up in a matter of no time we’ll be winning. This is where I want to play and if the opportunity presents itself, that’s what will happen."

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/02/...h-longterm-deal-despite-teams-lack-of-success

IMO there's no way in hell Schultz deserves 6M per year. I'm not a fan of bridge contracts but 2yrs, 2.5M per should be the way to go. Of course if you can sign him for 6-7years at 4-4.5M I would probably do it. He has great potential but he hasn't shown anything which is even in the same ball park with 6M.

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[NewBoysClub97*]

They need to do a bridge contract

 

[Joey Moss]

If any of them get a bridge contract it's Schultz.. I'd look at 2 years, 2.5-3M per ish.

 

[OF17]

I think you're being very reasonable. I'd imagine that a bridge contract would likely come closer to $3 million, but that's a minor difference. I think that it's the right way to go. We just don't know what Schultz is worth long-term yet, whereas with the other kids it's fairly certain that they'll be worth their $6 million price tags.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

when's he a UFA?

no more than 2-years IMO

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Bridge Contract is the only option.

He's good but he's accomplished very little at the NHL level.

I want him to have the same attitude that PK Subban has. Here's what you deserve right now. If you win a Norris or become our number 1 dman then we can talk big dollars.

We have to stop paying for the top end potential and pay for what he's worth right now. (ie. Gagner)

 

[ManofSteel55]

Bridge contract, take his current salary, the bonuses he is projected to earn this year (not the total, just the ones he actually is projected to achieve), and add 5 - 10 %.

 

[doulos]

Yeah, a bridge contract seems to be the way to go. His career could go either direction right now and overpaying down the road if he performs lights out is a much better alternative than being stuck with an ugly contract for a marginal player if he doesn't fully develop.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I'm thinking about 3 to 4 years, at between $3-4M per, the Cap is going up, so I could see Schultz getting about $500K-ish more then what some might see as "market" value.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I'd lock him in long term right now. If he'd settle for $4.5 million or so I'd max out his term.

 

[CornKicker]

i disagree completely, schultz has looked a bit out of sorts this year at times but when he is on his game he is an amazing player. A bridge contract will probably come back to kick us in the hole when he puts up 60pts from the back end just like Montreal is getting hacked when subbans next contract comes up. Use this weak season to lure Schultz into a 6 year 4.5 mil deal and reap the benefits for 4/6 years on that deal. we have the cap space to make a gamble here. if we bridge him at 2.5 for 2 and he lights it up like he did in the ahl we are looking in the 7-8M range to resign him.

also if we can lock him into 4.5 for 6 and he becomes elite then the d cap is set for Nurse/Marincin etc as well.

 

[Aerchon]

J. Shultz is a very difficult target to hit for a contract.

Such an unknown going forward.

He is 23.

Very lightweight. 185-190. Probably will never be able to put on enough muscle to be effective down low.

His college days, his AHL, and even his first 20 games or so I thought this guy could easily develop into a true #1 and almost certainly a solid #2. I think people forget how good he really was to start off with.

Right now he looks like a mid pairing guy PP specialist. Hopefully that is just a softmore slump.

He has played significantly better the last 10 games or so.

When does he hit Free Agency?

He is not worth 6 mill right now. I would say 4 is a bit steep for where he is at right now.

5 mill long term? Or give him a contract that keeps him as a RFA for cheaper?

I think I would have to gamble on him. His potential is still way up there. I think his low end is still NHL worthy. Give him 5 mill a year and sign him long term as part of "the plan".

EDIT: Wow. Seen all the people above saying long term 4.5... I am usually the cheapest person, always saying lower then the people on this board.

I don't think he signs for that little and if he did and he does reach his potential... OMFG Mac T will be considered a god for that signing.

I also think people are forgetting how much a of a premium goes with even a decent offensive defenseman in this league. Dennis Wideman makes over 5 a year for 5 years I believe and really J. Shultz should reach his level of play.

 

[Oiltankjob Fail]

I'd lock him in long term right now. If he'd settle for $4.5 million or so I'd max out his term.

Agreed the longer we sign these young bucks now the more cap space in the future we will have for top ufa's when we are contending.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I'd lock him in long term right now. If he'd settle for $4.5 million or so I'd max out his term.

If i was Justin Schultz agent, i would advise against this.

 

[CornKicker]

If i was Justin Schultz agent, i would advise against this.

and he probably should, but schultz seems pretty entangled with the young core. maybe the idea of a 6 year deal appeals to him more than potentially earning a bit more money down the road. he has to know that Marincin, Nurse, Klefbom and possibly Ekblad are coming and if he signs a bridge deal and doesnt outplay at least 3 of them he could be trade bait? hard to say, personally the comfort of a 6 year deal would be calming.

 

[Paralyzer]

How much do you wanna bet MacT will be able to lock Schultz up for 4 years at 3.5M with a signing bonus? He'll try to compare it to Smid's contract. Then say if you want to win now, we gotta have money to buy more talent to play with you. Then in the summer, get a Dan Boyle/Andrei Markov to play with Schultz. Win-win IMO.

 

[joestevens29]

How much do you wanna bet MacT will be able to lock Schultz up for 4 years at 3.5M with a signing bonus? He'll try to compare it to Smid's contract. Then say if you want to win now, we gotta have money to buy more talent to play with you. Then in the summer, get a Dan Boyle/Andrei Markov to play with Schultz. Win-win IMO.

How is Smid going to be a comparison?

The big issue here is we have to watch what we give Schultz as Petry is also a RFA. Could make things interesting.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

J. Shultz is a very difficult target to hit for a contract.

Such an unknown going forward.

He is 23.

Very lightweight. 185-190. Probably will never be able to put on enough muscle to be effective down low.

His college days, his AHL, and even his first 20 games or so I thought this guy could easily develop into a true #1 and almost certainly a solid #2. I think people forget how good he really was to start off with.

Right now he looks like a mid pairing guy PP specialist. Hopefully that is just a softmore slump.

He has played significantly better the last 10 games or so.

When does he hit Free Agency?

He is not worth 6 mill right now. I would say 4 is a bit steep for where he is at right now.

5 mill long term? Or give him a contract that keeps him as a RFA for cheaper?

I think I would have to gamble on him. His potential is still way up there. I think his low end is still NHL worthy. Give him 5 mill a year and sign him long term as part of "the plan".

EDIT: Wow. Seen all the people above saying long term 4.5... I am usually the cheapest person, always saying lower then the people on this board.

I don't think he signs for that little and if he did and he does reach his potential... OMFG Mac T will be considered a god for that signing.

I also think people are forgetting how much a of a premium goes with even a decent offensive defenseman in this league. Dennis Wideman makes over 5 a year for 5 years I believe and really J. Shultz should reach his level of play.

I'd go up to $5 million long term, if that's not good enough for him then I'd go for 2 years at $4 million per and then pay him at the end of that deal.

Agreed the longer we sign these young bucks now the more cap space in the future we will have for top ufa's when we are contending.

Agreed and I for one am a big fan of the kid and think that he has far from shown us the best hockey that he can play as an NHLer. When he hits his stride we will wish that we locked him up.

If i was Justin Schultz agent, i would advise against this.

Fair enough, it all depends on what Justin would be happy with. I also wouldn't mind overpaying him a little for choosing us and getting us that much closer to being a competitive team.

 

[Paralyzer]

How is Smid going to be a comparison?

The big issue here is we have to watch what we give Schultz as Petry is also a RFA. Could make things interesting.

Not by skill you can't compare, but you can compare by age, and how many minutes he plays per game. Same thing happened to Smid.

 

[joestevens29]

Not by skill you can't compare, but you can compare by age, and how many minutes he plays per game. Same thing happened to Smid.

When Smid was 23 he got a two year deal at 1.3mil a year. At 25 he got yet another 2 year deal at 2.25 and then at 27 he got his 4 year 3.5mil deal.

 

[Ninety7]

6 years 6m.

 

[Paralyzer]

When Smid was 23 he got a two year deal at 1.3mil a year. At 25 he got yet another 2 year deal at 2.25 and then at 27 he got his 4 year 3.5mil deal.

Nvm then. I don't know what I'm talking about. Carry on.

 

[ponokanocker]

Eakins clearly likes what he has been seeing from him for a while now giving him #1 minutes. Call it justified or not, but he has been getting over 22min/game for quite some time, and over 25min/game for half his games lately. Maybe this has been a directive from management, maybe they just really like what they have been seeing. This is going to be an extremely difficult contract and I imagine will be a much debated one.

 

[Raab]

Id rather overpay him in 2 years then have a 5M dman who should be bottom pairing. So in saying that id give him a 2 year deal between 2.5-3M. I would use Fransons last contract as a comparable.

 

[CornKicker]

Eakins clearly likes what he has been seeing from him for a while now giving him #1 minutes. Call it justified or not, but he has been getting over 22min/game for quite some time, and over 25min/game for half his games lately. Maybe this has been a directive from management, maybe they just really like what they have been seeing. This is going to be an extremely difficult contract and I imagine will be a much debated one.

i think if schultz shows in the last 20 games anything close to what we saw in the ahl last year then long term him.