Speculation: Justin Schultz's contract

[Mr Positive]

I'm confused: I thought we were talking about Justin Schultz.

Our D is not that hot if you haven't noticed, so to say that Schultz is our most valuable Dman is not a stretch. Keep in mind that the NHL is trending towards puck moving D as being the most valuable. That explains why Schultz leads all our Dmen in ice time despite the fact that Petry is much older and more experienced. That's the key for me being a big fan of Schultz. Sure he has had many failures in his tenure here but he's been misused as the linchpin of our entire defensive core despite his inexperience. He's clearly carrying our D, coaching constantly is talking him up, and so why on earth would he sign long term for a small amount of money?

As for Marincin, he's been paired with a veteran top 4 Dman, unlike Schultz, and so he's been put in a much more fair position to be evaluated than Schultz has. Also both Marincin and Petry are the shutdown pair and so they have a much easier task than Schultz has. Schultz can't just play safe. He HAS to drive offense, and he's been given bottom pairing talent to play with, so of course Schultz is the one getting all the pressure from the opposition.

Losing Schultz right now would be a massive fail. It's not like getting rid of him would erase his minuses. It would multiply them and spread them throughout the lineup

 

[McDrai]

Bridge contract please. He hasn't shown me anything in regards to being a true top pairing defenseman. 2 years 7 million total

 

[Spawn]

Have you seen the guys your comparing Schultz to play? They all looked like they had much higher upside but hadn't put it together. For me Schultz at max is a 40 point two way dman. Valuable sure but not something I wouldn't trade if there was a better option on the table.

He was on pace for 46 last year in his rookie season. No reason to suggest he couldn't exceed that mark in the future. He has shown flat out elite level offensive upside in every other league he has played in as well.

Mike Green didn't have much of a slap shot either and he still managed to be a PPG d-man.

Not saying Schultz will hit that mark (although he has a better chance at getting close to that than any of our other d-men), but he has the skills to be a high level offensive player. His defensive play needs obvious work, but that will hopefully come with more experience, and it sure would help a heck of a lot if they had a legitimate top 4 veteran to play him with.

Trading Schultz is crazy. The Oilers need more players who can provide offense from the back end, not less. Obviously if you can get some sort of an upgrade you can pull the trigger. You can do that with any player. But this is the kind of player that you keep and continue to develop. Not trade away after he struggles in his sophomore season.

 

[Raab]

He was on pace for 46 last year in his rookie season. No reason to suggest he couldn't exceed that mark in the future. He has shown flat out elite level offensive upside in every other league he has played in as well.

Mike Green didn't have much of a slap shot either and he still managed to be a PPG d-man.

Not saying Schultz will hit that mark (although he has a better chance at getting close to that than any of our other d-men), but he has the skills to be a high level offensive player. His defensive play needs obvious work, but that will hopefully come with more experience, and it sure would help a heck of a lot if they had a legitimate top 4 veteran to play him with.

You mean this Mike Green?




And I have a hard time believing Schultz would have kept his pace up all season. He was brand new in the league so teams hadn't focused on him yet. Now that they can focus on him and know his tendencies I'm sure its going to get tougher for him to produce.

 

[Raab]

Our D is not that hot if you haven't noticed, so to say that Schultz is our most valuable Dman is not a stretch. Keep in mind that the NHL is trending towards puck moving D as being the most valuable. That explains why Schultz leads all our Dmen in ice time despite the fact that Petry is much older and more experienced. That's the key for me being a big fan of Schultz. Sure he has had many failures in his tenure here but he's been misused as the linchpin of our entire defensive core despite his inexperience. He's clearly carrying our D, coaching constantly is talking him up, and so why on earth would he sign long term for a small amount of money?

As for Marincin, he's been paired with a veteran top 4 Dman, unlike Schultz, and so he's been put in a much more fair position to be evaluated than Schultz has. Also both Marincin and Petry are the shutdown pair and so they have a much easier task than Schultz has. Schultz can't just play safe. He HAS to drive offense, and he's been given bottom pairing talent to play with, so of course Schultz is the one getting all the pressure from the opposition.

Losing Schultz right now would be a massive fail. It's not like getting rid of him would erase his minuses. It would multiply them and spread them throughout the lineup

The whole point is he shouldn't be untouchable. Would I trade him away for nothing? Not a chance, but I also wouldn't want to pay him 5.5M per for 7 years. If we can find a deal that makes the team better as a whole I think you consider it.

 

[Spawn]

You mean this Mike Green?




And I have a hard time believing Schultz would have kept his pace up all season. He was brand new in the league so teams hadn't focused on him yet. Now that they can focus on him and know his tendencies I'm sure its going to get tougher for him to produce.

Neither player is known for their slap shot. Both have top notch wrist shots. They actually play the game in quite a similar manner.

If the powerplay didn't fall off the cliff this year Schultz's production would have been fine. As I said. He has shown elite level offensive production every stage of his career. Over a PPG in college. Over a PPG in the AHL, and a 45 point pace his first year in the NHL.

He has a great wrist shot and an uncanny ability to sneak into open spots in the offensive zone. There's nothing wrong with his offensive potential. The defensive end is a whole other story though. And he needs to be better and improve. But the Oilers also need to do a better job making it easier for him. So far they've failed him immensely in that regard.

Frankly, he has shown way more to suggest his offensive potential is way higher than 40 points than he has shown that it isn't.

 

[The Nuge]

Our D is not that hot if you haven't noticed, so to say that Schultz is our most valuable Dman is not a stretch. Keep in mind that the NHL is trending towards puck moving D as being the most valuable. That explains why Schultz leads all our Dmen in ice time despite the fact that Petry is much older and more experienced. That's the key for me being a big fan of Schultz. Sure he has had many failures in his tenure here but he's been misused as the linchpin of our entire defensive core despite his inexperience. He's clearly carrying our D, coaching constantly is talking him up, and so why on earth would he sign long term for a small amount of money?

As for Marincin, he's been paired with a veteran top 4 Dman, unlike Schultz, and so he's been put in a much more fair position to be evaluated than Schultz has. Also both Marincin and Petry are the shutdown pair and so they have a much easier task than Schultz has. Schultz can't just play safe. He HAS to drive offense, and he's been given bottom pairing talent to play with, so of course Schultz is the one getting all the pressure from the opposition.

Losing Schultz right now would be a massive fail. It's not like getting rid of him would erase his minuses. It would multiply them and spread them throughout the lineup

Lol what? Schultz doesn't have to face the hard competition or play tough minutes, so he has a harder time? Did I really just read that? Schultz is not our leader on the blue line. That's Petry. Schultz is a highly skilled dman who plays easy minutes, and sucks defensively. Schultz hasn't earned a penny over 3 million per. Give him 2 years at 2.5, and see what he can do

 

[Spawn]

Lol what? Schultz doesn't have to face the hard competition or play tough minutes, so he has a harder time? Did I really just read that? Schultz is not our leader on the blue line. That's Petry. Schultz is a highly skilled dman who plays easy minutes, and sucks defensively. Schultz hasn't earned a penny over 3 million per. Give him 2 years at 2.5, and see what he can do

Schultz isn't getting grossly sheltered. He plays 2nd pairing minutes. That's not being sheltered.

I don't disagree though that they should give him a 2 year deal. Although I wouldn't nitpick over 2.5 or 3 or 3.2 or whatever. That amount is sort of irrelevant.

 

[Mr Positive]

Lol what? Schultz doesn't have to face the hard competition or play tough minutes, so he has a harder time? Did I really just read that? Schultz is not our leader on the blue line. That's Petry. Schultz is a highly skilled dman who plays easy minutes, and sucks defensively. Schultz hasn't earned a penny over 3 million per. Give him 2 years at 2.5, and see what he can do

I knew you were wrong just by virtue that it is impossible to shelter a player who is also leading your entire team in ice time. The opposition plays their best players as much as possible so how on earth would Schultz find a way to be sheltered?

Just to make it official I checked some player usage charts and the only D we had that I would classify as sheltered would be Larsen and Belov. Petry definitely has the edge in quality of opposition but Schultz is no slouch, and it is to be expected considering that Schultz got more PP time, which isn't a bad thing considering that we are using on the PP for his abilities, not to shelter him.

It's probably best for everyone if we give Schultz a bridge contract that ends in RFA status. I have faith in Schultz so I wouldn't have minded a longer deal, but I could be wrong so I can get behind it. Sometimes it's better just to pay what's fair rather than gamble, even if it's a good gamble (imho)

 

[Raab]

Neither player is known for their slap shot. Both have top notch wrist shots. They actually play the game in quite a similar manner.

If the powerplay didn't fall off the cliff this year Schultz's production would have been fine. As I said. He has shown elite level offensive production every stage of his career. Over a PPG in college. Over a PPG in the AHL, and a 45 point pace his first year in the NHL.

He has a great wrist shot and an uncanny ability to sneak into open spots in the offensive zone. There's nothing wrong with his offensive potential. The defensive end is a whole other story though. And he needs to be better and improve. But the Oilers also need to do a better job making it easier for him. So far they've failed him immensely in that regard.

Frankly, he has shown way more to suggest his offensive potential is way higher than 40 points than he has shown that it isn't.

I respectfully disagree. Mike Green has a great one timer, easily better then Schultz's. And what good is Schultz's if he never uses it anyway? I can count the number of times I've seen him take a one timer from the point on one hand. And the number of times he's slapped it from the point on two. He always sneaks in low and snaps home a wrister similar to what Gilbert used to do for his goals. I agree he has alright offensive potential, I mean 40 points is nothing to sneeze at but I don't see how he ever has a 55-60 point season.

 

[ResilientBeast]

If that's the case I'd flip Schultz + 2016 1st for Thornton

Gagner retained salary + Musil + Pitlick for Sharp

Yakupov + Lander + 2015 2nd for 1st overall= Ekblad

Draft Draisaitl with 3rd overall.

Hall-RNH-Eberle
Perron-Thornton-Sharp
X-Draisaitl-X
Hendricks-Gordon-Pinozzotto

X-X
Marincin-Petry
Klefbom-Ekblad

Hopefully the X's can be filled with Kulemin, Markov, Fayne, Moss

Those trades are all awful for us

 

[Up the Irons]

Bridge contract please. He hasn't shown me anything in regards to being a true top pairing defenseman. 2 years 7 million total

something like that. or 10mil x 3. wouldn't go more term than that, unless he is willing to do 16 x 4, which would probably be a value contract towards the end. but if he thinks he's in the 5 mil range, that's crazy. Bergevin and the Subban contract probably squashed that possibility. he can't ask for more than what Subban got. He's not even in Subban's galaxy and never will be.

 

[CupofOil]

Some of the comments in here are cringeworthy. Giving up on Schultz after 1.5 years of NHL play just because there was a rumor that his agent is trying to get to get a big money deal for his client (freaking shocking, i know).

He's not going to get more than the McDonagh contract and if he does, the blame of that falls on Oilers management, not Schultz.
Unfortunately, they backed themselves into a corner by handing out $6 mil contracts for potential so who can blame Schultz for trying to squeeze more money from them.
Secondly, i guess some of you didn't watch many games later in the year (not that i blame you). He definitely showed some defensive improvements later in the year. He's not the trainwreck defensively that he was early in the year but i guess once you get a reputation on HFOil, it's almost impossible to shake so i guess he's a trainwreck defensively if you guys say so.

I think a little perspective is needed here. This is a very young player who has played one full season and one shortened season under 2 different coaches while getting way too much responsibility too soon. While so many of you are ready to throw him in the trash bin, maybe you should gain some perspective about the situation.
I see no reason why he can't improve and become a 45-50 point defenseman who is adequate defensively in the mold of a Shattenkirk type of player. He has all the tools, it's just a matter of him gaining more experience, becoming more comfortable with the coaches and becoming properly insulated. There's no reason to give up on him now.

 

[sepHF]

If we got Schultz on a longer term deal under 5m I dont know how you could complain. I wouldn't be mad if he got a contract similar to McDonagh

 

[Smart Dunsparce*]

How is he a big part of the future if he can't even play defence? He can hold the puck and look pretty at the point, but he's not even putting up sublime offensive numbers to make up for his atrocious defense. Let alone the number of SHG against we have had this season with him playing point man on defense....
No way he deserves what he's speculated to be asking for. He needs to show a hell of a lot more to get what he wants.

Schultz is on par or exceeding production with Letang at the same age. No point in giving up on Schultz at all considering he has only played his 2nd season, well technically 1 and a half seasons in the NHL.

Letang 07/08 65gp 6G 11A
08/09 74gp 10G 23A
09/10 73gp 3G 24A

Schultz 12/13 48gp 8G 19A
13/14 74gp 11G 22A

Keep in mind Letang was playing on a team with Crosby and Malkin and the Oilers have no comparible players. Now I'm not saying that Schultz would be as good as Letang but we have a player who is trending pretty well and without the health issues Letang has. I have no clue why you act like you know what he is asking for, nor do I understand why it seems like you have given up on a player playing 1 and a half seasons in the NHL... this forum though...

 

[Oiltankjob Fail]

Shattenkirk after his Elc signed a 4year 4.25 million dollar contract. Both these players came through College ranks and Shattenkirk had a better start to his NHL career, I can't see how his agent would expect anything north on a 3/4 year deal.

 

[Petes2424]

Bridge contract please. He hasn't shown me anything in regards to being a true top pairing defenseman. 2 years 7 million total

You would honestly give him $3.5 per on a bridge?? Maybe I'm missing this one but unlike his world tour signing a couple years ago, nobody's beating doors down for him these days.

I'd be surprised if he's signed before Krug or Dekeyser. Both of whom, should get more than him. Literally his bridge deal should be somewhere between $1.7 and $2.2. It is the Oilers though and you never know.

 

[Petes2424]

How is he a big part of the future if he can't even play defence? He can hold the puck and look pretty at the point, but he's not even putting up sublime offensive numbers to make up for his atrocious defense. Let alone the number of SHG against we have had this season with him playing point man on defense....
No way he deserves what he's speculated to be asking for. He needs to show a hell of a lot more to get what he wants.

How many PP goals did he score this year?? If he's not even contributing on the PP, how can we justify giving him any lucrative deal? I'm with you.

Guys. He has a great skill set but he has a very long way to go just to be a top 4 guy in the league. You simply can't depend on him. Right now, he's a 5-6 guy who you play on the PP. And that's here. I think we all expect him to come around but that's why we have bridge contracts. Just because NHL14 says he's worth a higher dollar amount, they'd be stupid giving it to him.

He needs to take steps forward before he gets paid anywhere near some of these numbers. We can trade for Almqvist who's set to go back to Europe and get the same production transitionally. In fact I'm in favor of bringing him in. Midget or not, he moves the puck extremely well.

 

[Spawn]

You would honestly give him $3.5 per on a bridge?? Maybe I'm missing this one but unlike his world tour signing a couple years ago, nobody's beating doors down for him these days.

I'd be surprised if he's signed before Krug or Dekeyser. Both of whom, should get more than him. Literally his bridge deal should be somewhere between $1.7 and $2.2. It is the Oilers though and you never know.

Torey Krug is actually a really good example of a player used properly by his team.

He played far and away the most sheltered minutes of any Boston d-man. Like it isn't even close. The easiest quality of competition by a country mile. Ridiculous offensive zone starts (his offensive zone start % was 66%. That is the highest of any d-man in the league who played at least 20 games).

The Bruins did with Krug what the Oilers should have done with Schultz from day one. But instead they've decided it would be a good idea to play Schultz almost 19 minutes a night at ES. A full minute than anyone else on the Oilers. Last year was only marginally better at 17:30. Second behind Petry.

 

[Moose Coleman]

Our D is not that hot if you haven't noticed, so to say that Schultz is our most valuable Dman is not a stretch. Keep in mind that the NHL is trending towards puck moving D as being the most valuable. That explains why Schultz leads all our Dmen in ice time despite the fact that Petry is much older and more experienced.

The difference in TOI between Petry and Schultz is actually fairly insignificant and easily explained by the fact Schultz gets a lot of PP time.

That's the key for me being a big fan of Schultz. Sure he has had many failures in his tenure here but he's been misused as the linchpin of our entire defensive core despite his inexperience. He's clearly carrying our D, coaching constantly is talking him up, and so why on earth would he sign long term for a small amount of money?

I'm confused: you say he's been misused as the linchpin and the results would suggest that is so. So how can he also be said to be carrying the D when it's clear his performance has not been up to snuff?

As for Marincin, he's been paired with a veteran top 4 Dman, unlike Schultz, and so he's been put in a much more fair position to be evaluated than Schultz has.

Schultz has played the most minutes with Nick Schultz and Andrew Ference. Both of them put up better results 5 on 5 apart from Schultz than they did with him. He's playing with veteran guys and would seem to be dragging them down.

Also both Marincin and Petry are the shutdown pair and so they have a much easier task than Schultz has.

I've never before seen anyone suggest that playing a shutdown role is an easy gig. That's just bizarre.

Schultz can't just play safe. He HAS to drive offense, and he's been given bottom pairing talent to play with, so of course Schultz is the one getting all the pressure from the opposition.

Schultz is a bottom pairing talent who happens to post good PP numbers. He's a more hyped Marc Andre Bergeron.

Losing Schultz right now would be a massive fail. It's not like getting rid of him would erase his minuses. It would multiply them and spread them throughout the lineup

This doesn't make sense. If a player is causing GA, getting rid of that player doesn't mean those GA will migrate elsewhere. Schultz has shown himself to be a one dimensional player who is also a drag on his partners.

 

[Raab]

Some of the comments in here are cringeworthy. Giving up on Schultz after 1.5 years of NHL play just because there was a rumor that his agent is trying to get to get a big money deal for his client (freaking shocking, i know).

He's not going to get more than the McDonagh contract and if he does, the blame of that falls on Oilers management, not Schultz.
Unfortunately, they backed themselves into a corner by handing out $6 mil contracts for potential so who can blame Schultz for trying to squeeze more money from them.
Secondly, i guess some of you didn't watch many games later in the year (not that i blame you). He definitely showed some defensive improvements later in the year. He's not the trainwreck defensively that he was early in the year but i guess once you get a reputation on HFOil, it's almost impossible to shake so i guess he's a trainwreck defensively if you guys say so.

I think a little perspective is needed here. This is a very young player who has played one full season and one shortened season under 2 different coaches while getting way too much responsibility too soon. While so many of you are ready to throw him in the trash bin, maybe you should gain some perspective about the situation.
I see no reason why he can't improve and become a 45-50 point defenseman who is adequate defensively in the mold of a Shattenkirk type of player. He has all the tools, it's just a matter of him gaining more experience, becoming more comfortable with the coaches and becoming properly insulated. There's no reason to give up on him now.

Can people please stop calling him young? He's turning 24 next month.

 

[Raab]

Schultz is on par or exceeding production with Letang at the same age. No point in giving up on Schultz at all considering he has only played his 2nd season, well technically 1 and a half seasons in the NHL.

Letang 07/08 65gp 6G 11A
08/09 74gp 10G 23A
09/10 73gp 3G 24A

Schultz 12/13 48gp 8G 19A
13/14 74gp 11G 22A

Keep in mind Letang was playing on a team with Crosby and Malkin and the Oilers have no comparible players. Now I'm not saying that Schultz would be as good as Letang but we have a player who is trending pretty well and without the health issues Letang has. I have no clue why you act like you know what he is asking for, nor do I understand why it seems like you have given up on a player playing 1 and a half seasons in the NHL... this forum though...

If my calculations are correct Letang put up his first 50 point season when he was the same age as Schultz. Your showing his 20, 21, 22 year old seasons.

 

[Mr Positive]

The difference in TOI between Petry and Schultz is actually fairly insignificant and easily explained by the fact Schultz gets a lot of PP time.

Justin Schultz plays over a minute per game more even strength than Petry. That's a big margin. Make no mistake. Schultz is our #1D. Not Petry. Petry is the 2nd line shut down guy.

I'm confused: you say he's been misused as the linchpin and the results would suggest that is so. So how can he also be said to be carrying the D when it's clear his performance has not been up to snuff?

Justin Schultz is a linchpin D because he is by far our best puck mover. The reason it is a bad is because he's too inexperienced to be a 1D in the NHL and he is given bottom pairing talent to play with. If were in Seth Jones' shoes and got to play with someone like Weber he would an unquestioned future top pairing D in this league. On the Oilers he is set up to fail. That's not Justin's fault.

Schultz has played the most minutes with Nick Schultz and Andrew Ference. Both of them put up better results 5 on 5 apart from Schultz than they did with him. He's playing with veteran guys and would seem to be dragging them down.

The Oilers D with Schultz on the ice is very predictable. Schultz is the only one who can move the puck so just focus all attention on him and the Oil will crumble. Ference and Nick Schultz just fought for the puck along the boards and would feed it to Justin so he could start the play. The reason they do better away from Schultz is because Schultz is on the top pairing. When Ference and Nick Schultz get demoted so they can hide on the bottom pairing of course they look better. Their expectation is lower.

I've never before seen anyone suggest that playing a shutdown role is an easy gig. That's just bizarre.

It is easier to play a shutdown role than play transitional D. Shutdown D always have the option to just ditch the puck out of the zone. Transitional D have to be creative. They have to find passes. They have to drive the offense. That is what Schultz did. That's what a top pairing Dman does. Shutdown defensemen play it safe with the puck. Schultz couldn't afford to.

Schultz is a bottom pairing talent who happens to post good PP numbers. He's a more hyped Marc Andre Bergeron.

This doesn't make sense. If a player is causing GA, getting rid of that player doesn't mean those GA will migrate elsewhere. Schultz has shown himself to be a one dimensional player who is also a drag on his partners.

First off his minutes prove he is our top pariing Dman. It might also surprise you to learn that most of Schultz' points were 5 on 5.

I suppose you mean the role he should be playing. The idea is that Eakins just doesn't know what he's doing and should be giving Petry all these minutes. Let me ask you this: who is supposed to move the puck? Right now Schultz is basically alone on this team. Demoting him makes zero sense. Getting him another capable top pairing puck mover makes too much sense.

Plus minus is one of the most abused stats out there. It MUST be taken along with context. Saying that removing the minus player will solve all the problems is an example of abusing the plus minus stat. As long as Schultz is playing on our top pairing with bottom pairing talents like Ference you cannot blame Schultz on everything that goes wrong on the team and even with his own stats. We should be willing to toss out Schultz' plus minus stat for the same reason that I'm sure the Canucks are tossing out Edler's even worst plus minus. It's the team's fault, not the player's.

 

[rickyrunfar]

Until the guy learns to play defence he deserves nothing over 2 million 2 years. I think he's talented and he'll improve but why he gets lumped in with the the big 3 by MacT is beyond me. Just another weird glitch in the Oilers universe of winning.

 

[shoop]

Until the guy learns to play defence he deserves nothing over 2 million 2 years. I think he's talented and he'll improve but why he gets lumped in with the the big 3 by MacT is beyond me. Just another weird glitch in the Oilers universe of winning.

2M a year for 2 years is a dream. Schultz should fire his agent if he brings that deal to him.

He hasn't earned a long term deal and is dreaming if he would turn down six years with a 3.75M AAV.

Term should be two or three years. Then you look at that 3.5M to 4M aav.