Just Not Excited About 2016 / 2017

[Fro]

I, for one, can't wait to see this Jack Werenski guy play!

I will NEVER get tired of hearing Ville Siren announce the Werenski pick

 

[major major]

We've never traded draft picks outside of the Jeff Carter trade. We've always had young depth in the system.
Now we've never had enough elite talent and honestly I don't think we added any elite talent in last 12 month - maybe Dubois proves me wrong?
But the CBJ has never really traded 1st round picks that often. So the talent was in the system.

You can have top 10 first rounders for a decade and it's no guarantee of having an above average group of young players.

I was thinking that at this point in 2009 it would have been the highest point of excitement for youth on the Jackets roster, so I looked it up to make a comparison. Just looking at U24 with good top line / top pair / #1G upside (i.e. >50% chance).

F: Voracek, Brassard, Filatov

D:0

G: Mason

That's it. There's no one on the roster in the U24 age group with much upside. Methot and Russell maybe, but not top pair. The highest rated prospect not listed above was John Moore, who was slated for second pair PMD duty.

Compare that to today's pre-prime group:

F: Saad, Jenner, Wennberg, Bjorkstrand, Dubois

D: Jones, Murray, Werenski

G: ?

 

[Xoggz22]

So has that changed in last 12 months? Outside of trading RyJo for Jones (which I agree makes the team more balanced) why are you more excited now than last year?

Again I think it's fine to be a fan(atic). But after 16 years I think everyone is tired of the team being a year away. We've always had young depth, witnessed by our draft position every year except the year we traded our 1st for Carter. The only thing Jarmo has done drafting that everyone hangs there hat on is Oliver in the 3rd round, and he has played all of 12 NHL games (so very small sample size).

The big thing to keep in mind about our historical young depth is how many times the young player is better than what he is a few years later with the CBJ (Brule, Brassard, Zherdev, Fritsche, Mason all come to mind as guys who were impressive initially but then almost regressed while they were here). Even a guy like Nash was at his best in 2nd season (offensively), Pascal had injuries, Klesla never progressed but not sure if he was better early on. Filatov I don't think was good early and never really did much. RyJo progressed and regressed, same with Jake? Point being is we've always had young talent. Sometimes it flourished early, then regressed. Other times it never took off. Rare cases (Nash, RyJo, Mason) where it progressed and peaked early, then maybe not a regression but didn't improve after 2-3 seasons.

Bottom line is hopefully the future development is better than our past.

Personally I think there is a huge difference between young depth and playing 18 year olds. This club has had a lot of "future" through the years. Unfortunately most of them played immediately without any development (I realize some 18 year olds don't need to play an extra year of junior, in Europe or in the AHL).

One year can make a significant difference in development. Playing against men vs playing against boys can be a huge benefit. It isn't just age but where players are plying their trade. Werenski having 2 years in college... Bjorkstrand having a year in the AHL... Anderson having 2 years in the AHL... Wennberg entering his third year in the NHL...

The development curve appears, on paper, to have changed in the organization. For me it just feels different. Then again, I'm the eternal optimist.

 

[Xoggz22]

We've never traded draft picks outside of the Jeff Carter trade. We've always had young depth in the system.
Now we've never had enough elite talent and honestly I don't think we added any elite talent in last 12 month - maybe Dubois proves me wrong?
But the CBJ has never really traded 1st round picks that often. So the talent was in the system.

But the "system" was the NHL. Now it's utilizing multiple leagues. Without injuries, I think every 1st round pick for most of our existence (until recent - I dont' have time to look but may try to over the weekend) was in the NHL in their first year. The only time I recall a 1st round pick not being on the roster (minus injury) was John Moore and then not again until Wennberg, Dano, Rychel. This is from a quick memory trip so I could be wrong but hopefully the point comes through

 

[Crede777]

But the "system" was the NHL. Now it's utilizing multiple leagues. Without injuries, I think every 1st round pick for most of our existence (until recent - I dont' have time to look but may try to over the weekend) was in the NHL in their first year. The only time I recall a 1st round pick not being on the roster (minus injury) was John Moore and then not again until Wennberg, Dano, Rychel. This is from a quick memory trip so I could be wrong but hopefully the point comes through

Brassard went back to Juniors for 2006-2007. Played 17 games in 2007-08 but spent most of the season in the AHL. Didn't become a full time NHL'er until 2008-09.

 

[Old Guy]

Without injuries, I think every 1st round pick for most of our existence (until recent - I dont' have time to look but may try to over the weekend) was in the NHL in their first year. The only time I recall a 1st round pick not being on the roster (minus injury) was John Moore and then not again until Wennberg, Dano, Rychel.

LO stands for Lock Out

Year, Player, GP Draft yr, 2nd yr,3rd yr
00 Klesla 8, 75,
01 P. LeClaire 0, 0, 2
02 Nash 74, 80,
03 Zherdev 57, LO,
04 Picard LO, 17,
05 Brule 7, 78,
06 Brassard 0, 17, 31
07 Voracek 0, 80,
08 FIlatov 8, 13,
09 Moore 8, 13,
10 Johansen 0, 67,
11 No 1st rd
12 Murray 0, 66,
13A Wennberg 0, 68,
13B Rychel 0, 5, 32
13C Dano 0, 35,
14 Milano 0, 0, 3
15A Werenski 0, NA,
15B Carlsson 0, NA,
16 DuBois NA,

 

[major major]

But the "system" was the NHL. Now it's utilizing multiple leagues. through

How a player is developed is important, but the level of talent now far exceeds what we've had before, and that ultimately is the most important thing. My post above shows we're at roughly double the level of young talent that peaked in 2009. That's the big difference.