Just How Unlucky Were The Leafs? (Kessel Trade)

[indigobuffalo]

Just asking a general question.

How unlucky were there Leafs in the Kessel trade?

By that, I mean to ask, what was the probability that the Leafs' picks would wind up #2, #32, and #10 in their respective drafts.

Since the Leafs were gambling futures against netting a player they believed (rightly so, IMO) would be an elite scoring winger, I'm just curious what the probability is that the Bruins would get equal or better return, assuming the Leafs were right about Kessel's value.

I'm thinking it was probably in the realm of 1:250, but I'm not a statistics Ph.D by any means.

Curious what others think, and why.

Please respond with what the odds were at the time the deal was made and if you want, include an explanation for your value.

Thanks!

Click to read more...

 

[Bardown warrior]

Just how unlucky were the leafs to land a forward who is 2nd amongst all players in combined points the last 3 seasons?



Not Very.


You have to give some to get some; IMO the Kessel trade is about even in terms of assets.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Just how unlucky were the leafs to land a forward who is 2nd amongst all players in combined points the last 3 seasons?



Not Very.


You have to give some to get some; IMO the Kessel trade is about even in terms of assets.

That's not the question being asked, though.

The question being asked (as I understand it) is: the Leafs gave up a collection of draft picks. At the time of the trade, the value of those picks was undefined. What were the odds that the ultimate outcome would be that good for the Bruins (or better)?

 

[Bardown warrior]

That's not the question being asked, though.

The question being asked (as I understand it) is: the Leafs gave up a collection of draft picks. At the time of the trade, the value of those picks was undefined. What were the odds that the ultimate outcome would be that good for the Bruins (or better)?

Answer is still the same. The chances were pretty high actually... Everyone new the risks involved. The Leafs roster was completely terrible


Kessel-Stajan-Blake
Kulemin-Grabo-Hagman
Poni-Bozak-Stempniak
Tlusty-Mitchell-Mayers

Kaberle-Schenn
Van Ryn-Komisarek
Exelby-White
Finger



Vesa Toskala
Curtis Joseph

This was a lottery team, and in hindsight I would still do the trade.

 

[RandV]

Typically there isn't much separating the bottom 10 or so teams in any giving season, who finishes where usually involves a bit of luck with injuries/streaks/etc.

Consider the 4 year point spread the Leafs had from the season before Kessel and the 3 following it, with the middle two where the Bruins owned the pick: 81, 74, 85, 80. So 80 points seem like the average setting, where its perfectly normal to see them fluctuate up or down 5 or more points in a season.

If you start talking about the 'odds' then they're going to look long because there's 30 places a team can finish in any giving season and all sorts of possibilities. Realistically it shouldn't have been unexpected that they could fall that low during those two seasons after acquiring Kessel. There's only so much a young winger can do for a team.

 

[Boreal01]

Answer is still the same. The chances were pretty high actually... Everyone new the risks involved. The Leafs roster was completely terrible


Kessel-Stajan-Blake
Kulemin-Grabo-Hagman
Poni-Bozak-Stempniak
Tlusty-Mitchell-Mayers

Kaberle-Schenn
Finger-Komisarek
Exelby-White




Vesa Toskala
Jonas Gustavsson

This was a lottery team, and in hindsight I would still do the trade.

Fixed.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

That's actually a pretty interesting question. They weren't good in 2009, but were only the 7th worst team, and were 11th in goals for(albeit dead last in goals against). They added two good defensive defensemen in Komisarek and Beauchemin, along with Kessel. Then they traded for JS Giguere and Phaneuf. That's not to say that's enough to make them contenders, but one would certainly think those additions wouldn't result in a 9-point drop. I'm not that surprised they were still a bottom-10 team in 2011, but falling to 2nd worst was definitely pretty unlucky IMO.

 

[Halpysback*]

Not very, given their roster composition the probability of them finishing bottom 10 was already 90%. Finishing 1st and finishing 30th did not have equal probabilities assigned to it.

 

[Rebuilt]

Just asking a general question.

How unlucky were there Leafs in the Kessel trade?



Thanks!

Unlucky for Brian Burke , and very lucky for the Bruins. Yes.

Not unlucky for the Maple Leafs at all. Ron Wilson and the entire team is directly responsible for finishing 2nd worst and 9th worst when they damn well knew they were giving up the first rounders.

They were a better team than that and they let both Kessel and Burke down.

It should have been #10 to 14 in 2010 and then 18 to 22nd in 2011.

 

[Catamo]

About 1 in 3.

 

[hatterson]

The Leafs certainly weren't a good team in 08-09, but they didn't lose anyone significant (at the time) except Kubina who was replaced by Beauchemin and Komisarek, and added Kessel. In addition adding Giguere and Gustavsson was assumed to help Toskala from sucking so bad.

Sure, they weren't expected to be a contender, and were even a stretch for the playoffs, but finishing at the bottom was unexpected.

Even then, no one expected their first 20 games to be 3-11-6 and after that terrible start they played at an 82 point pace which would have put them at 7th worst in the league, much more in line with expectations.

The pick in 2011 turning into 10th wasn't that "unlucky" but I'd say you could have got awfully good odds if you had a prop bet for the Leafs finishing 2nd last in 09-10 which would make the Bruins lucky/Leafs unlucky.

 

[Quares27]

They were pretty unlucky I guess. Like mentioned above, there isnt much separating the bottom teams in the NHL. And if the Leafs had finished about 9th worst the next season (they were 7th the previous and added a 30 goal scorer) then thats a massive difference because instead of getting Seguin they could have also picked up a really good young player (Granlund, Skinner, Fowler, Schwartz) although none of them are as good as Seguin, but they also could have picked up a not so good one (Burmistrov, Mcilrath, Connolly, Niederreiter).

So they were sort of unlucky, but at the same time it doesnt really matter too much because the Bruins traded Seguin. If the Leafs decide to trade the pick it makes no difference if the pick was 2nd or 9th because they dont have the pick regardless, and either way the players are going to join an NHL team. The problem is that the pick was traded to a division rival who they had to play against 6x a year, but after the Bruins traded him it doesnt really matter much anymore

 

[CanadienShark]

Answer is still the same. The chances were pretty high actually... Everyone new the risks involved. The Leafs roster was completely terrible


Kessel-Stajan-Blake
Kulemin-Grabo-Hagman
Poni-Bozak-Stempniak
Tlusty-Mitchell-Mayers

Kaberle-Schenn
Van Ryn-Komisarek
Exelby-White
Finger



Vesa Toskala
Curtis Joseph

This was a lottery team, and in hindsight I would still do the trade.

Really? I think the Leafs would have gotten either Hall or Seguin, then one of Landeskog or RNH the next year. Basically, they'd be the Oilers.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Probably somewhat unlucky in a sense. In 07-08, the Leafs had the 7th worst record. In 08-09, the 7th worst record. There was probably more wrong with that version of the Leafs than just Kessel and a couple other additions could compensate for. You probably don't think it'll get worse though, so you can understand the chance taken.

Still, in 10-11, they had the 9th worst record. In 11-12, the 5th worst. In the 2 years prior to getting Kessel, and in the 2 years after getting Kessel, the Leafs averaged the 7th worst record in the league. While the Leafs were a bit unlucky to the outcome of that deal in 2010, they also probably shouldn't have made that specific deal at that specific time. In 2013, playoffs in a short season. In 13-14, the 8th worst record. It ultimately hasn't gotten a whole lot better by the end of all these seasons.

Nothing against Kessel, as he's a scoring winger, and just 1 guy. So was Hull in St.Louis. Probably more of a last piece sort of player though, and not the guy you give up a lot for when there's not much else on the team. The Leafs haven't had the greatest prospect pool during this time. They haven't gotten the greatest of free agents. With trades, you usually open up a spot to fill one, which is where the prospect issue can come back to bite you.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Some bad luck involved.
But there's also a very good reason why bubble teams don't trade away multiple first round picks. It's a thin line between a playoff bubble team and a lottery team.
Sam Pollock, the legendary Habs GM, helped build a dynasty by trading existing players for first rounders.

 

[duffy9748]

Just how unlucky were the leafs to land a forward who is 2nd amongst all players in combined points the last 3 seasons?



Not Very.


You have to give some to get some; IMO the Kessel trade is about even in terms of assets.

You think Seguin, Hamilton, and Knight is equivalent to Kessel or the original deal with just 2 1sts+1 2nd is equal value? I'm not a Leafs or Bruins fan but I can't imagine many Toronto fans wouldn't take back that deal.

 

[Faltorvo]

You think Seguin, Hamilton, and Knight is equivalent to Kessel or the original deal with just 2 1sts+1 2nd is equal value? I'm not a Leafs or Bruins fan but I can't imagine many Toronto fans wouldn't take back that deal.

I would reverse that trade in half a heart beat and I'm a leafs fan.

some of the biggest reasons.

kessel already 26 and a 8 million$ cap hit, 5 wasted seasons here, the team is nowhere even close to being anything worth a damn and a winger with many limitations.

Seguin 22 and a #1 C already , we could really use those 4 extra years to keep trying to fix this.

Hamilton , 21 , 5 extra years to fix this. RHD with top pairing future

A #1 C and top pairing if not future #1d for a #1 winger, bah burned.

PS. for the record I railed on this board about the trade the moment I got back from Germany , this team was in no position to be trading around first round slots.

 

[Pi]

I would reverse that trade in half a heart beat and I'm a leafs fan.

some of the biggest reasons.

kessel already 26 and a 8 million$ cap hit, 5 wasted seasons here, the team is nowhere even close to being anything worth a damn and a winger with many limitations.

Seguin 22 and a #1 C already , we could really use those 4 extra years to keep trying to fix this.

Hamilton , 21 , 5 extra years to fix this. RHD with top pairing future

A #1 C and top pairing if not future #1d for a #1 winger, bah burned.

PS. for the record I railed on this board about the trade the moment I got back from Germany , this team was in no position to be trading around first round slots.

Seguin is a #1C with a 40% faceoff percentage, plays zero minutes shorthanded, plays nearly four mins of PP and up to now has never lived up in the playoffs.

Kessel is near PPG in the playoffs, has made all of his wingers better.

Swapping Kessel for Seguin, Hamilton makes zero difference. Leafs would still be just as bad as they were and are.

The trade was ill advised, the value in terms of picks was fair for a rising star. The Kessel trade is one that a team that is just about to contend should have made, not one who had zero prospects and no one notable on its roster.

Either way you think of it, the Leafs wouldn't be in a better place. I personally don't see what the big deal is.

Leafs suck and acquire Seguin, Hamilton, Rielly, Kadri, Nylander (my god that sounds ****ing awesome but again these are just names...) and people will say that the Leafs are tanking.

Make the trade and people will say: Should have tanked.

Until a team wins, there are always going to be question marks.

Putting myself in Burke's shoes, I wouldn't have made the trade BUT I would be equally disappointed to keep picking top 10 and hope that they all just come together and win.

Oilers went in one extreme, Leafs went in another. BOTH terribly wrong.

You need to draft well with all your picks, not just your 1st round lottery pick. You need to make sensible trades...not sexy trades and most important...STAY THE **** AWAY from expensive average UFA's.

Teams that win the Cup usually have a perfect balance....there are young kids coming up and taking important spots (Saad, Voynov, Krug etc), they make smart signings and don't sign average players for more than 3-4 years...Blackhawks did drop the ball with Bickell contract though, it won't hurt them too much though.

 

[JackJ]

How unlucky were there Leafs in the Kessel trade?

By that, I mean to ask, what was the probability that the Leafs' picks would wind up #2, #32, and #10 in their respective drafts.

Extremely probable given the roster. Burke is a moron.

 

[aleshemsky83]

They weren't a no-brainer lottery team like that one poster said

ridiculous assertion to make really, I dont care if youre a fan of the leafs or not

Problem was Vesa Toskala went from being an okay starter to a god awful backup due to a hip injury. Completely derailed their season (Gustaffson was crap as well)

Basically, they were extremely unlucky regarding their goaltending situation

 

[West]

They were 7th and 8th in the year before and after so 2nd overall might look a little fluky. Having said that if you use the gf^2 / (gf^2+ ga^2) formula they actually were a little lucky high in 08/09 year and could have very easily been 5th.

Add on to that the second half of the 08/09 year the went into what has become there yearly tail spin. Prorating the second half pace over a season they would have ended up in 2nd last. So looking a little less fluky.

On the plus side they got Kessel for nothing off there roster so it's not unrealistic to say that he added 20 goals to the team and add zero goals against as Toronto was weak defensively. Using estimate from second half of season and 20 extra goals lands Toronto with about the 5-6th pick of the draft.

Good place to note haven't actually compared the rest of the roster. To keep things simple I'm assuming it stayed moderately static or should have.

What I find really interesting is that the 09/10 team improved it's GA by 16 - 30 goals depending on what you compare to above but also dropped 36 - 56 GF in the same season (56 is counting Kessels assumed extra points).

This is where I move from pseudo-Math to opinion. I'm guessing Burke and staff decided it was interpretive to improve the teams defensive play regardless of if it was a style of play that suited the team or players so whatever they gained in GA was not surprisingly lost 2 to 3 times over in GF.

IMO Toronto would have been better of trading for Kessel or forcing the team to be more accountable defensively (guestimated 5th and 10th for Kessel) but both at once was a mistake.

Last comment is Toronto without Kessel would have very likely been 1st overall pick and very very likely a higher pick than 8th. Very very last comment is given GF GA Toronto ended up exactly where it was expected in 09/10.

 

[hatterson]

Good place to note haven't actually compared the rest of the roster. To keep things simple I'm assuming it stayed moderately static or should have.

It was basically Kubina out, Beauchemin and Komisarek in. On paper they were an improved team even before the Kessel deal.

 

[supsens]

Just how unlucky were the leafs to land a forward who is 2nd amongst all players in combined points the last 3 seasons?



Not Very.


You have to give some to get some; IMO the Kessel trade is about even in terms of assets.

Seguin is 22 and has already had a more productive year then Kessel has ever had. The trade is not even in assests,

 

[Frank Drebin]

Answer is still the same. The chances were pretty high actually... Everyone new the risks involved. The Leafs roster was completely terrible


Kessel-Stajan-Blake
Kulemin-Grabo-Hagman
Poni-Bozak-Stempniak
Tlusty-Mitchell-Mayers

Kaberle-Schenn
Van Ryn-Komisarek
Exelby-White
Finger



Vesa Toskala
Curtis Joseph

This was a lottery team, and in hindsight I would still do the trade.

You're so preoccupied with defending the trade, you're ignoring the actual question.

NOBODY thought the leafs would finish 2nd last in 2010, they made some moves that significantly improved their roster, namely adding a 35 goal scorer in Kessel, a supposed solid top 4 dman in Komisarek and a cup winning veteran goalie in Giguere.

It was very unlucky for the Leafs, Burke obviously didn't expect to suck so bad because I cant see a shrewd trader like Burke giving up a top 5 pick ++ for another former top 5 pick.

Boston wanted to get rid of Kessel, they are supposed to lose that trade. I personally would rather have Hamilton and Seguin vs Kessel but it turned out pretty even in the end.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

You're so preoccupied with defending the trade, you're ignoring the actual question.

NOBODY thought the leafs would finish 2nd last in 2010, they made some moves that significantly improved their roster, namely adding a 35 goal scorer in Kessel, a supposed solid top 4 dman in Komisarek and a cup winning veteran goalie in Giguere.

It was very unlucky for the Leafs, Burke obviously didn't expect to suck so bad because I cant see a shrewd trader like Burke giving up a top 5 pick ++ for another former top 5 pick.

Boston wanted to get rid of Kessel, they are supposed to lose that trade. I personally would rather have Hamilton and Seguin vs Kessel but it turned out pretty even in the end.

The Giguere deal was made during the 09/10 season, so it has nothing to do with this discussion.

The real issue is that Toskala's sv% dropped 17 points, when it was expected that it would improve, since his prior season was his career worst (by a lot) due to injuries. In addition, the signing of Mike Komisarek completely flopped, Schenn regressed a lot and Beauchemin dissapointed.

Not to mention that the team was not built for Ron Wilson's run and gun system, though that's Burke's fault and doesn't have much to do with luck.