Just How Unlucky Were The Leafs? (Kessel Trade)

Claypool

Registered User
Jan 12, 2009
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If Toronto was a scoring winger away from winning a Stanley Cup the trade would have made sense.
 

bearcountry17

Registered User
Jun 4, 2012
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South Shore, MA
So the Leafs have Kessel for 8 more years., who do the Bruins have Now
I think the Leafs were lucky to get him and well yeah you have to be unlucky to finish 2nd last but I think they still come out pretty even with what Boston has now.

30 out of 30 GMs take Eriksson, Hamilton, and Smith(if he receives ~2.84m which he won't) at 8m combined than Kessel at 8m by himself. Then you add in Morrow, knight, and Fraser and there's defiantly enough quality in those 6 pieces to take them over Kessel even if he's the best player out of that group.
 

Confucius

There is no try, Just do
Feb 8, 2009
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30 out of 30 GMs take Eriksson, Hamilton, and Smith(if he receives ~2.84m which he won't) at 8m combined than Kessel at 8m by himself. Then you add in Morrow, knight, and Fraser and there's defiantly enough quality in those 6 pieces to take them over Kessel even if he's the best player out of that group.

30 out of 30 you say. Well so much for the fallacy, the team who gets the best player wins the trade.
 

Price is Wright

Registered User
Feb 5, 2010
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Mcdonagh Gomez trade was worse

From a pure trade standpoint, absolutely.

However, the Kessel trade did more damage to the Leafs as a team than the Gomez trade did for Montreal. The Habs have made the eastern conference final twice since the deal with only one year missing the playoffs. Toronto has only made the playoffs once in a first round loss.
 

bearcountry17

Registered User
Jun 4, 2012
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South Shore, MA
I wouldn't no. Although those 6 are clearly better as a whole than the 6 Bruins mentioned so it's not really a fair comparison.

They're pretty damn close. I'm sure most people would agree with that, the majority would probably have Kane>Kessel as well. Anyways, I'm pretty sure I made my point.
 

SmellOfVictory

Registered User
Jun 3, 2011
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Answer is still the same. The chances were pretty high actually... Everyone new the risks involved. The Leafs roster was completely terrible


Kessel-Stajan-Blake
Kulemin-Grabo-Hagman
Poni-Bozak-Stempniak
Tlusty-Mitchell-Mayers

Kaberle-Schenn
Van Ryn-Komisarek
Exelby-White
Finger



Vesa Toskala
Curtis Joseph

This was a lottery team, and in hindsight I would still do the trade.

Their forward corps looks perfectly fine. Not great, but fine. Everyone in their top 9 was, at the time anyway, a legitimate top 9 player. If they'd had a goaltender above replacement and another top 4 defemceman they should've ended up picking outside the top 10.
 

Mr Positive

Cap Crunch Incoming
Nov 20, 2013
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...

Burke got what he deserved for misjudging the stage of his rebuild and not doing the other trade of Kaberle+7th for Kessel. I still don't know why he didn't do everything possible to worsen that 2nd overall pick. Instead he left the team as is......

Why should Burke have worsened that 2nd overall? How would that have benefited the Leafs in any way?

To me, that seems like making hockey moves just for better PR. I don't think that's Burke's style, and it shouldn't be any GM's style either
 

TheHockeyRant

Registered User
Apr 19, 2014
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Reno, NV
Just asking a general question.

How unlucky were there Leafs in the Kessel trade?

By that, I mean to ask, what was the probability that the Leafs' picks would wind up #2, #32, and #10 in their respective drafts.

Since the Leafs were gambling futures against netting a player they believed (rightly so, IMO) would be an elite scoring winger, I'm just curious what the probability is that the Bruins would get equal or better return, assuming the Leafs were right about Kessel's value.

I'm thinking it was probably in the realm of 1:250, but I'm not a statistics Ph.D by any means.

Curious what others think, and why.

Please respond with what the odds were at the time the deal was made and if you want, include an explanation for your value.

Thanks!

Not as unlucky as they were for trading away the Tuukka Rask draft pick.

Toronto, stop trading with Boston, you will always lose.
 

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