So the Leafs have Kessel for 8 more years., who do the Bruins have Now
I think the Leafs were lucky to get him and well yeah you have to be unlucky to finish 2nd last but I think they still come out pretty even with what Boston has now.
30 out of 30 GMs take Eriksson, Hamilton, and Smith(if he receives ~2.84m which he won't) at 8m combined than Kessel at 8m by himself. Then you add in Morrow, knight, and Fraser and there's defiantly enough quality in those 6 pieces to take them over Kessel even if he's the best player out of that group.
30 out of 30 you say. Well so much for the fallacy, the team who gets the best player wins the trade.
Mcdonagh Gomez trade was worse
Would you trade JVR, Reilly, Kadri, Finn, Leivo, and Frattin for Patrick Kane?
I wouldn't no. Although those 6 are clearly better as a whole than the 6 Bruins mentioned so it's not really a fair comparison.
Answer is still the same. The chances were pretty high actually... Everyone new the risks involved. The Leafs roster was completely terrible
Kessel-Stajan-Blake
Kulemin-Grabo-Hagman
Poni-Bozak-Stempniak
Tlusty-Mitchell-Mayers
Kaberle-Schenn
Van Ryn-Komisarek
Exelby-White
Finger
Vesa Toskala
Curtis Joseph
This was a lottery team, and in hindsight I would still do the trade.
...
Burke got what he deserved for misjudging the stage of his rebuild and not doing the other trade of Kaberle+7th for Kessel. I still don't know why he didn't do everything possible to worsen that 2nd overall pick. Instead he left the team as is......
Just asking a general question.
How unlucky were there Leafs in the Kessel trade?
By that, I mean to ask, what was the probability that the Leafs' picks would wind up #2, #32, and #10 in their respective drafts.
Since the Leafs were gambling futures against netting a player they believed (rightly so, IMO) would be an elite scoring winger, I'm just curious what the probability is that the Bruins would get equal or better return, assuming the Leafs were right about Kessel's value.
I'm thinking it was probably in the realm of 1:250, but I'm not a statistics Ph.D by any means.
Curious what others think, and why.
Please respond with what the odds were at the time the deal was made and if you want, include an explanation for your value.
Thanks!