Player Discussion Jonathan Lekkerimaki

[Raistlin]

I thought the main problem was that we should not be adding salary. We need Hronek, will really help. I Didn't think he was worth a mid to late first and our 2nd. One or the other but not both. (the fact the Isles made the playoffs lessens the blow). If you remember a lot of tv analysts were shaking their heads at this trade. But I am scared shitless as to what this mgmt team can and will do to shed salary.

The issue with my dislike of the Hronek trade was the timing, esp after Yzerman said in his presser that he wasnt shopped. So JR or PA approached him, he deemed it lucrative enough to cut short their bid to make playoffs this year for a short bet on the islanders. a 17th-18th pick is still pretty nice on this deep top end of the draft.

That said, when they made the deal, it has the potential on being a Celebrini pick. Hronek could've came in the pushed the 11th pick further lower, and who knows what will transpire with the prospects? why not wait til the offseason when things are clearer on the cap front and market front? Hronek did jack all for us when all is said and done. I like the player, but its too early to tell how much he will impact the already dire cap situation. Add to the fact the Allvin shot down any chance of buying out OEL.

#1: QH - 7.85
#2: UFA - 4.5
#3: Hronek - 7 (say he becomes a #2-#3)
#4: Bear - 3.5
#5: OEL - 7.25
#6: Schenn - 2.5
#7: Hirose - 2

Thats almost 35 million for a serviceable D corps SMH in 2024. this is also the year EP's new contract kicks in. All in a bid to be a bubble team. Say if we are looking good by TDL, forget about buying, say if there are injuries, we are screwed as the team is shallow as a puddle.

 

[arttk]

The issue with my dislike of the Hronek trade was the timing, esp after Yzerman said in his presser that he wasnt shopped. So JR or PA approached him, he deemed it lucrative enough to cut short their bid to make playoffs this year for a short bet on the islanders. a 17th-18th pick is still pretty nice on this deep top end of the draft.

That said, when they made the deal, it has the potential on being a Celebrini pick. Hronek could've came in the pushed the 11th pick further lower, and who knows what will transpire with the prospects? why not wait til the offseason when things are clearer on the cap front and market front? Hronek did jack all for us when all is said and done. I like the player, but its too early to tell how much he will impact the already dire cap situation. Add to the fact the Allvin shot down any chance of buying out OEL.

#1: QH - 7.85
#2: UFA - 4.5
#3: Hronek - 7 (say he becomes a #2-#3)
#4: Bear - 3.5
#5: OEL - 7.25
#6: Schenn - 2.5
#7: Hirose - 2

Thats almost 35 million for a serviceable D corps SMH in 2024. this is also the year EP's new contract kicks in. All in a bid to be a bubble team. Say if we are looking good by TDL, forget about buying, say if there are injuries, we are screwed as the team is shallow as a puddle.

wow you are incredibly generous with contracts... are you uhh Chris Gear?

You think Hirose is going to do enough to earn 2 in 1.5 years???? It's more likely his salary will be around 1Mx3. Schenn at 2.5M while being a year and half older???? Hronek at 7??? I don't see us keeping Bear if he is going to cost us 3.5.

 

[Raistlin]

I wasnt that high on him when we drafted him.


If his season before being drafted was his regular season in the Allsvenskan that he just had... how could any team justify drafting him earlier than the 3rd round? He is small, not fast, and now he isn't able to produce and seems to stay away from the play as much as possible.

I agree mostly with what you said, I disagree with this though.

So you factor in that he has mono, and a concussion, you look back at how he dominated the U18, that he has a major league shot. everyone knew Raty had a horrible year, he didnt drop to the 3rd round. the third round talk is preposterous, good for a chuckle. when it comes to prospects, this board is extra reactive, maybe because of the Schroeders and White and Juolevi and Shinkaruks.... I get it you've been hurt, but I was just taken back by how early the bust calls came out with J.L. Yeah I was disappointed, but he was nowhere close physically anyways, playing against 30+ yrold Swedes with dad strength isn't the CHL.

 

[Raistlin]

wow you are incredibly generous with contracts... are you uhh Chris Gear?

You think Hirose is going to do enough to earn 2 in 1.5 years???? It's more likely his salary will be around 1Mx3. Schenn at 2.5M while being a year and half older???? Hronek at 7??? I don't see us keeping Bear if he is going to cost us 3.5.

I'm realistic. if anything getting a #2 for 4.5 is being very generous. cap is going up.

Wait to see how much Schenn is signing for after helping Reilly turn back the clock.

 

[arttk]

I'm realistic. if anything getting a #2 for 4.5 is being very generous. cap is going up.

Wait to see how much Schenn is signing for after helping Reilly turn back the clock.

4.5M for like Gavikrov is probably a bit on the low, I think realisrtically he should be 5, but all the other signings are inflated by like a M.

There is no way Hirose would cost 2M considering he is a RFA and we would be offering him a multi year 1ishM extension that he would probably not reject.

Bear will need to play pretty damn well to get more than 3.

Schenn you should just walk away if he asks anything that starts with a 2M considering he is like a 3rd paring guy.

There is a multi page discussion around Hronek and what he would get. I don't think there is an opportunity here for him to earn anything that starts with a 7.

 

[Raistlin]

4.5M for like Gavikrov is probably a bit on the low, I think realisrtically he should be 5, but all the other signings are inflated by like a M.

There is no way Hirose would cost 2M considering he is a RFA and we would be offering him a multi year 1ishM extension that he would probably not reject.

Bear will need to play pretty damn well to get more than 3.

Schenn you should just walk away if he asks anything that starts with a 2M considering he is like a 3rd paring guy.

There is a multi page discussion around Hronek and what he would get. I don't think there is an opportunity here for him to earn anything that starts with a 7.

if you're talking Gavrikov, you'll need to overpay for him, as he hates the tax situation here. I'm thinking a lesser player like a Soucy or Graves for 4.5, which maybe doable. I inflated the deals you mentioned by 0.5 because the cap in 2024 is def higher. Regardless, the elephant is 3 contracts over 6.5. IF Hronek is not being paid 6.5, his play is not justifying the 2 high picks we gave up for him.

Back on track, any news on where Lekkerimaki is going? Ostlund and Ohgren are already committed to Farjestad and Skelleftea.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I agree mostly with what you said, I disagree with this though.

So you factor in that he has mono, and a concussion, you look back at how he dominated the U18, that he has a major league shot. everyone knew Raty had a horrible year, he didnt drop to the 3rd round. the third round talk is preposterous, good for a chuckle. when it comes to prospects, this board is extra reactive, maybe because of the Schroeders and White and Juolevi and Shinkaruks.... I get it you've been hurt, but I was just taken back by how early the bust calls came out with J.L. Yeah I was disappointed, but he was nowhere close physically anyways, playing against 30+ yrold Swedes with dad strength isn't the CHL.

Räty was trending like the 1st overall before his abysmal year.

Lekkerimäki went 15th overall in a weak draft.

Im not quite sure what is so preposterous about the latter falling to the 3rd round but not for the former falling to the 2nd round... Maybe we had a VERY different view of Lekkerimäki before he got mono and before his horrific 2022-23 campaign?

 

[Gurn]

You think Hirose is going to do enough to earn 2 in 1.5 years????

Hirose is already playing on a $2,026,667- and he had no years played.

 

[MS]

John, please get off MS's back. He's legit one of the best posters on this forum. Disagree all you like but don't harass by digging through their history. Hindsight is always 20/20 so easy to look smart afterwards. Lekk legit looked awful injury or not (if he was injured or sick he shouldn't have played IMO).

He's looking good now, but no reason to gloat. Thats all on Lekk and his effort.

I have no problem with being called out when I'm wrong on something. I just hate being misquoted or being told I was wrong when I wasn't.

If you dropped Lekkerimaki into this year's extremely deep draft a month ago as an overage pick, absolutely he would have gone somewhere 3rd round-ish. I'm actually amazed people are arguing this. His stock had dropped considerably, he'd be one of the oldest players in the draft, and he'd be going from one of the worst drafts in recent memory to one of the best.

But - as I keep saying - prospect values are incredibly volatile. We can see this with Raty who was a top 3-valued pick in 2000, then went in the 50s in 2001, and then was worth a late 1st by 2002. Lekkerimaki has now played better, so he will have bumped his value up again considerably - just as a 6 game sample size did for him last year. People want to act like prospect values are a flat line and it's the exact opposite.

I've been having these same discussion with people for 20 years where any prospect who is doing well is OMG STEAL! and every player who is doing poorly is WAIT AND SEE STOP CALLING HIM A BUST AT AGE 19 or whatever and it goes the same way every single time and it's tiresome.

 

[arttk]

if you're talking Gavrikov, you'll need to overpay for him, as he hates the tax situation here. I'm thinking a lesser player like a Soucy or Graves for 4.5, which maybe doable. I inflated the deals you mentioned by 0.5 because the cap in 2024 is def higher. Regardless, the elephant is 3 contracts over 6.5. IF Hronek is not being paid 6.5, his play is not justifying the 2 high picks we gave up for him.

Back on track, any news on where Lekkerimaki is going? Ostlund and Ohgren are already committed to Farjestad and Skelleftea.

I guess who knows what our honour AGM will do.

I think Hronek getting 6.5M is more realistic, I don't think he would get the opportunity to earn 7M here and he will probably take that offer.

There is always the instance where we give him more responsibility after we extend him as the depth increase and depth wise, we can afford to ice a Hughes-Hronek pair and he crushes that role. And he would be a 1st paring guy earning at lower rate.

 

[arttk]

Hirose is already playing on a $2,026,667- and he had no years played.

is that like a bug or something? his base is 855k and his signing bonus is 95k.. also performance bonus is listed a 0.

his qualifier is like 897k, we will probably give him like a 2-3 year extension at like 1M and he will most likely take it because he is going to start in the A next year and his agents is not going to let him walk around from that kind of guaranteed money especially considering hes not a NHL player yet.

 

[Raistlin]

I have no problem with being called out when I'm wrong on something. I just hate being misquoted or being told I was wrong when I wasn't.

If you dropped Lekkerimaki into this year's extremely deep draft a month ago as an overage pick, absolutely he would have gone somewhere 3rd round-ish. I'm actually amazed people are arguing this. His stock had dropped considerably, he'd be one of the oldest players in the draft, and he'd be going from one of the worst drafts in recent memory to one of the best.

But - as I keep saying - prospect values are incredibly volatile. We can see this with Raty who was a top 3-valued pick in 2000, then went in the 50s in 2001, and then was worth a late 1st by 2002. Lekkerimaki has now played better, so he will have bumped his value up again considerably - just as a 6 game sample size did for him last year. People want to act like prospect values are a flat line and it's the exact opposite.

I've been having these same discussion with people for 20 years where any prospect who is doing well is OMG STEAL! and every player who is doing poorly is WAIT AND SEE STOP CALLING HIM A BUST AT AGE 19 or whatever and it goes the same way every single time and it's tiresome.

Yeah its tiresome because there is wisdom in wait and see. Matt Boldy is a recent example, other than like 4 games in his D+1, he was horribly ineffective. He did manage to turn that season around at the very end, not unlike JL, drafted around the same area pick wise too. Anyways, I'm sure everyone only wants the best for the kid. As with Boldy, next year he has to build upon what he did these 15 playoff games, just wish they won the final game instead of being forced to disperse now. I bet if he starts slow in a new league new team new coach, people here will be clamoring to trade him for magic beans again.

 

[MS]

Yeah its tiresome because there is wisdom in wait and see. Matt Boldy is a recent example, other than like 4 games in his D+1, he was horribly ineffective. He did manage to turn that season around at the very end, not unlike JL, drafted around the same area pick wise too. Anyways, I'm sure everyone only wants the best for the kid. As with Boldy, next year he has to build upon what he did these 15 playoff games, just wish they won the final game instead of being forced to disperse now. I bet if he starts slow in a new league new team new coach, people here will be clamoring to trade him for magic beans again.

There might be wisdom in 'wait and see' but only if you're also applying that to prospects doing better than expected. And I can assure you that that is never, ever the case for the people we're talking about here.

 

[Ernie]

is that like a bug or something? his base is 855k and his signing bonus is 95k.. also performance bonus is listed a 0.

his qualifier is like 897k, we will probably give him like a 2-3 year extension at like 1M and he will most likely take it because he is going to start in the A next year and his agents is not going to let him walk around from that kind of guaranteed money especially considering hes not a NHL player yet.

The signing bonus is payed out immediately but he only played like a week, so they kind of retroactively apply that to the whole season, making his cap hit $2m. It won't affect his qualifying offer as it was just bonus money.

 

[RobertKron]

Hirose is already playing on a $2,026,667- and he had no years played.

That's an elevated cap hit due to being signed late in the season. He's on a 950k contract.

 

[Zombotron]

-finally healthy for the first time in a while
-he's going to talk to his agent about next steps soon
-Canucks management wants him to play in Sweden for one more year

 

[Gstank]

I have no problem with being called out when I'm wrong on something. I just hate being misquoted or being told I was wrong when I wasn't.

If you dropped Lekkerimaki into this year's extremely deep draft a month ago as an overage pick, absolutely he would have gone somewhere 3rd round-ish. I'm actually amazed people are arguing this. His stock had dropped considerably, he'd be one of the oldest players in the draft, and he'd be going from one of the worst drafts in recent memory to one of the best.

But - as I keep saying - prospect values are incredibly volatile. We can see this with Raty who was a top 3-valued pick in 2000, then went in the 50s in 2001, and then was worth a late 1st by 2002. Lekkerimaki has now played better, so he will have bumped his value up again considerably - just as a 6 game sample size did for him last year. People want to act like prospect values are a flat line and it's the exact opposite.

I've been having these same discussion with people for 20 years where any prospect who is doing well is OMG STEAL! and every player who is doing poorly is WAIT AND SEE STOP CALLING HIM A BUST AT AGE 19 or whatever and it goes the same way every single time and it's tiresome.

I have never seen you once admit you were wrong. You consistently try and prove that other people are wrong even when your take is so far off its comical.

Lekkermaki even with his poor start to 2023 wasnt going to be a 3rd round pick. Do you really believe that the players in the top 3 rounds of thisyears draft are better then a mid 1st round pick from last years draft? He would be in the similar range as Musty, Stenberg, and others which is a low 1st high 2nd. Perron is a comparable for Lekkermaki in terms of undersized skilled forward



I didnt know Raty was -2 years old when he was drafted

 

[Gstank]

-finally healthy for the first time in a while
-he's going to talk to his agent about next steps soon
-Canucks management wants him to play in Sweden for one more year

The SHL would be the best place for him. Top 6 minutes and PP1/PP2 time against men will help his transition to NA in 2025 go a lot smoother. I think he will probably at least start 2025 in the AHL playing hopefully a similar role to what I mentioned above

 

[MS]

I have never seen you once admit you were wrong. You consistently try and prove that other people are wrong even when your take is so far off its comical.

Lekkermaki even with his poor start to 2023 wasnt going to be a 3rd round pick. Do you really believe that the players in the top 3 rounds of thisyears draft are better then a mid 1st round pick from last years draft? He would be in the similar range as Musty, Stenberg, and others which is a low 1st high 2nd. Perron is a comparable for Lekkermaki in terms of undersized skilled forward



I didnt know Raty was -2 years old when he was drafted

I admit I was wrong about stuff here all the freaking time.

Lekkerimaki if you dropped the 2022 version into the 2023 draft would probably be a late 1st. Maybe early 2nd. Add a year of poor development, concussion issues, and he's an overage player? Nothing is unreasonable in that take.

And again, it's changed again since then with a spell of good play.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

The issue with my dislike of the Hronek trade was the timing, esp after Yzerman said in his presser that he wasnt shopped. So JR or PA approached him, he deemed it lucrative enough to cut short their bid to make playoffs this year for a short bet on the islanders. a 17th-18th pick is still pretty nice on this deep top end of the draft.

That said, when they made the deal, it has the potential on being a Celebrini pick. Hronek could've came in the pushed the 11th pick further lower, and who knows what will transpire with the prospects? why not wait til the offseason when things are clearer on the cap front and market front? Hronek did jack all for us when all is said and done. I like the player, but its too early to tell how much he will impact the already dire cap situation. Add to the fact the Allvin shot down any chance of buying out OEL.

#1: QH - 7.85
#2: UFA - 4.5
#3: Hronek - 7 (say he becomes a #2-#3)
#4: Bear - 3.5
#5: OEL - 7.25
#6: Schenn - 2.5
#7: Hirose - 2

Thats almost 35 million for a serviceable D corps SMH in 2024. this is also the year EP's new contract kicks in. All in a bid to be a bubble team. Say if we are looking good by TDL, forget about buying, say if there are injuries, we are screwed as the team is shallow as a puddle.

This all sorely lacks context.

One, the trade happened immediately after the Red Wings were abjectly humiliated by the Senators twice, a team they were ostensibly competing with for the last playoff spots, so Yzerman cut bait. It's not like they were 2nd in their div and couldn't turn down our offer.

2nd, Allvin correctly surmised that the Islanders pick was an asset that would drop in value. He bought a short position on the Islanders, and then sold the short position once he stopped believing it could lead to a Celebrini or even 13th overall this season. It was shrewd and he was correct.

It's very possible that Yzerman would not have traded Hronek for the 17th overall pick this year, but was willing to trade him for a possibility at 13th/lottery pick next year.

Further, our improvement also meant the 2nd rounder was lower than it was tracking to be.

These were shrewd calls on the part of Allvin.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I have never seen you once admit you were wrong. You consistently try and prove that other people are wrong even when your take is so far off its comical.

MS has admitted when he is wrong in the past (mostly), IIRC. I think his initial take on Lekkerimaki has coloured perceptions here a bit. He does not favour smaller, less robust players. There was trepidation with Pettersson, and he did not favour Hughes. This much I remember.

Even so, we all have these player biases. If the player isn't favoured from the outset, then good play maybe raises the bar to level, while others are elated. Bad play maybe sinks his assessment down to the basement, while others are in a holding pattern. It's all relative.

It's a prospect. An unknown. Nobody can really be faulted at this stage because the outcome is uncertain. That said, there is a likelihood to things and Lekkerimaki wasn't tracking well. So it wasn't out of line to be down on the pick.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Every team has access to these players.

This isn't some bold brand new strategy they are employing. Hell... The Canucks did this with Burrows and Tanev etc.

They hit the ball out of the par on Kuzmenko and it literally made ZERO good. They got a 40 goal ELC player and it didnt help one lick. That is how far from competing the team is.

Is all of your analysis just post-hoc blanket statements?

So we got a 40 goal scorer for free, but it doesn't count as shrewd because we were a bad team.

So no moves made by unsuccessful teams are good moves or move those teams toward success?

This is just such specious reasoning.

 

[oceanchild]

This all sorely lacks context.

One, the trade happened immediately after the Red Wings were abjectly humiliated by the Senators twice, a team they were ostensibly competing with for the last playoff spots, so Yzerman cut bait. It's not like they were 2nd in their div and couldn't turn down our offer.

2nd, Allvin correctly surmised that the Islanders pick was an asset that would drop in value. He bought a short position on the Islanders, and then sold the short position once he stopped believing it could lead to a Celebrini or even 13th overall this season. It was shrewd and he was correct.

It's very possible that Yzerman would not have traded Hronek for the 17th overall pick this year, but was willing to trade him for a possibility at 13th/lottery pick next year.

Further, our improvement also meant the 2nd rounder was lower than it was tracking to be.

These were shrewd calls on the part of Allvin.

It was still an overpay for this asset, and doesn’t justify the risk had this played out differently. The focus should have been on maximizing our draft position and adding prospects. This group can win every trade and I still don’t see how that adds up to a cup. You need high performing players on a ELC to win.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Is all of your analysis just post-hoc blanket statements?

So we got a 40 goal scorer for free, but it doesn't count as shrewd because we were a bad team.

So no moves made by unsuccessful teams are good moves or move those teams toward success?

This is just such specious reasoning.

Obviously not my point.

Try to remember what I am replying to or these conversations will keep going in circles forever.

 

[Vector]