John Tavares

[Znith]

If you take Tavares out of the Leafs line-up this season our Leafs would be battling for a WC spot with the likes Montreal and Carolina and Columbus right now and might be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.

His 2nd in the NHL in goals is what is separating the Leafs from that wild card chasing pack. IMO

Johnny has been a very important player to the Leafs and is masking some of their bigger flaws.

100%. He's been the leafs best player

 

[IPS]

Johnny T has 7 game winning goals this year, among his 45.

Leafs have 96 points and Montreal the WC #2 team has 90 points which is the playoff cut-off line.

Tavares impact, in terms of his goals for the Leafs is a reason whey Leafs have 3 more wins than Montreal.

Food for thought:

Timing is everything because if Matthews new contract kicked in this year @$11.6 mil instead of next year then the Leafs couldn't have afforded to sign Tavares @ $11 mil, even if he wanted to come home because they wouldn't have had the cap room to do it.

Without JT things would be a lot different this year, Leafs forward line-up would look something like this;

Hyman --- Matthews --- Marner
Johnsson -- Nylander -- Kapanen
Marleau --- Kadri -- Brown
Lindholm -- Gauthier -- Ennis

You can attibute Tavares to a lot more than a 3-win improvement.

We legit wouldn't be in the playoffs without him, I'm not sure people realize this.

Now you and I share very different reasons as to why that is, but it's concerning.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

And Kadri'd be in there too if he had shot what he did couple years

That's a big IF.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

We legit wouldn't be in the playoffs without him, I'm not sure people realize this.

Carried while Matthews dealt with is Trouba injury.

 

[Deebo]

all still true.

Except that he has matched his career high in points.

 

[TheProspector]

That's a big IF.

Not really. Kadri has shot >= 13.5% five times.

 

[nuck]

While I don't agree with some parts, this is a solid objective post from an Isles fan.

Except he's a Leafs fan but yes.

 

[Mess]

You can attibute Tavares to a lot more than a 3-win improvement.

We legit wouldn't be in the playoffs without him, I'm not sure people realize this.

Now you and I share very different reasons as to why that is, but it's concerning.

Improvement is in the eye of the beholder.

Without JT
2017-18 .. Leafs finish with franchise best 105 points on 49 wins and 3rd in the Atlantic
GF = 277 & GA = 232 = +45 goal differential
PP% of 24.9% (2nd best) scoring 56 PP goals.

vs

With JT
2018-19 ..Leafs have 96 points on 44 wins with 6 games to go. Need a record of 4-1-1 to tie 105 points and finish 3rd in the Atlantic.
GF = 271 & GA 228 = + 43 goal differential
PP% of 22.2 (7th best) scoring 44 PP goals

Where is the improvement despite JT and his 45 goals?

If the Leafs win out the year (6-0-0) they will finish with 50 wins on the year = + 1 win improvement.

Based on the actual team stats the Leafs are essentially the same with and without JT, and I was being generous due to JTs individually strong a personal best GF season, and Leafs fans should thank him because you and I agree without him we might not be a playoff team.

 

[Leafs1991]

Dreger is clueless...his Leafs insider status flushed down the toilet with the departure of Nonis...all you have to do and look back at the TSN panel last July when Elliotte Friedman broke the news that Tavares signed with the Leafs. Dreger started talking at the 2:20 mark of this video, but before that he was just pretending to look at his phone, keeping busy as if he had something more important than to contribute to the biggest conversation that the Leafs had just signed the most awesome superstar in the modern day to ever hit free agency. I think it started at that point where Dreger began grinding an ax with Dubas because he is not a Leafs insider at all...remember a month or 2 ago when he stirred up crap about Marner being offer sheeted? He simply focused on the Leafs when in fact, any number of other teams' players like Raantanen, Laine, etc. could face the same offersheet scenario...not just the Leafs!

I think you're searching for something that isn't there. Bob Mackenzie was asked a question who then talked for almost 90 seconds and then LeBrun was also asked a question. Then Dreger finally had a chance to speak.

 

[Pi]

Improvement is in the eye of the beholder.

Without JT
2017-18 .. Leafs finish with franchise best 105 points on 49 wins and 3rd in the Atlantic
GF = 277 & GA = 232 = +45 goal differential
PP% of 24.9% (2nd best) scoring 56 PP goals.

vs

With JT
2018-19 ..Leafs have 96 points on 44 wins with 6 games to go. Need a record of 4-1-1 to tie 105 points and finish 3rd in the Atlantic.
GF = 271 & GA 228 = + 43 goal differential
PP% of 22.2 (6th best) scoring 44 PP goals

Where is the improvement despite JT and his 45 goals?

If the Leafs win out the year (6-0-0) they will finish with 50 wins on the year = + 1 win improvement.

Based on the actual team stats the Leafs are essentially the same with and without JT, and I was being generous due to JTs individually strong a personal best GF season.

Hockey is not basketball or football. No one player can impact the standings that much. Leafs went through more adversity this year dealing with injuries to top defenseman, losing our best player for 14 games, Kadri for a couple games, trying to find the best lineup combos etc.

The Leafs had only 42 ROW last year. This year they already have 45 with 6 games to go.

 

[X66]

Tavares has been one of the best players in franchise history in his first year here.

That's all people need to know about the signing.

 

[IPS]

Hockey is not basketball or football. No one player can impact the standings that much. Leafs went through more adversity this year dealing with injuries to top defenseman, losing our best player for 14 games, Kadri for a couple games, trying to find the best lineup combos etc.

The Leafs had only 42 ROW last year. This year they already have 45 with 6 games to go.

What do these excuses do? This is nothing that other teams don't deal with too.

 

[HOF Paul Henderson]

Tavares has been one of the best players in franchise history in his first year here.

That's all people need to know about the signing.

If he win the Richard trophy this year I’m buying his jersey

 

[mclaren55]

What do these excuses do? This is nothing that other teams don't deal with too.

He is just posting it for context. Last year the Leafs were extremely healthy, this year they weren't, yet we are in the same if not slightly improved position.

 

[Mess]

Tavares has been one of the best players in franchise history in his first year here.

That's all people need to know about the signing.

Leafs brought in an $11 mil AAV player (2nd highest in NHL) #1C and saw little to no team improvement in the process more a break-even outcome on the regular season results.

Hopefully the playoffs is where JT shines and Leafs see the impact of his signing being a difference maker when it really counts.

If the Leafs bow out to Boston again in the 1st round it will have all been for not, his achievements this year. Same regular season results & same playoff results for the Leafs is what the JT signing will read when the dust settles.

 

[IBeL34f]

You forgot the part where that lineup has 11 million in cap space.

"Forgot"...

 

[X66]

Leafs brought in an $11 mil AAV player (2nd highest in NHL) #1C and saw little to no team improvement in the process more a break-even outcome on the regular season results.

Hopefully the playoffs is where JT shines and Leafs see the impact of his signing being a difference maker when it really counts.

If the Leafs bow out to Boston again in the 1st round it will have all been for not, his achievements this year. Same regular season results & same playoff results for the Leafs is what the JT signing will read when the dust settles.

What little to no team improvement?

 

[ninetyone]

Improvement is in the eye of the beholder.

Without JT
2017-18 .. Leafs finish with franchise best 105 points on 49 wins and 3rd in the Atlantic
GF = 277 & GA = 232 = +45 goal differential
PP% of 24.9% (2nd best) scoring 56 PP goals.

vs

With JT
2018-19 ..Leafs have 96 points on 44 wins with 6 games to go. Need a record of 4-1-1 to tie 105 points and finish 3rd in the Atlantic.
GF = 271 & GA 228 = + 43 goal differential
PP% of 22.2 (7th best) scoring 44 PP goals

Where is the improvement despite JT and his 45 goals?

If the Leafs win out the year (6-0-0) they will finish with 50 wins on the year = + 1 win improvement.

Based on the actual team stats the Leafs are essentially the same with and without JT, and I was being generous due to JTs individually strong a personal best GF season, and Leafs fans should thank him because you and I agree without him we might not be a playoff team.

This comparison makes no sense, Tavares wasn't the only change. Maybe it was Komarov and Martin who are the reason?

How much of an impact was Trotz/Lehner? I'd say it's more Trotz than even Lehner since under Trotz' system, even Greiss has been superb. Boychuk suddenly looks great again.

There are simply too many variables to look at the "Tavares impact" on the Leafs.

If your objective is to win a cup, and beating Boston (similar but not the same to last year's Bruins), having Tavares and their incredible 5on5 stats (I think his 36ES goals are the best in the league since Malkin's monster season and 65es points will do wonders against the Bruins, something they severely lacked last year where JVR/Bozy excelled on the PP and not so great 5on5.

I think the biggest mistake management makes (Leafs as well) is to overPAY (overVALUE?) statistics, agents leverage this all the time. The danger is you overpay based on stats and not impact (less measurable), so you run the risk of thinking Jason Blake is a 40 goal scorer or Matt Moulson's a 3--time 30 goal player who's a bargain at $5MM. To some extent, Nylander's 60+ pts with Auston are similar. Okposo signed a monster contract as well, based on stats.

Any way you look at it, and you can find stats to support either side you want, Tavares has been a superb addition to the Leafs and any reasonable Islanders fan would agree (if they let the hurt/rage subside).

The weird part is how well the Isles would have looked with Trotz AND Tavares, but I suppose we'll never know.

 

[IPS]

Any way you look at it, and you can find stats to support either side you want, Tavares has been a superb addition to the Leafs and any reasonable Islanders fan would agree (if they let the hurt/rage subside).
.

This isn't what he's arguing.

He's arguing that the addition of an elite #1C has made no improvement in the standings for us. The reason for it is up for debate, but the cold hard fact stands - JT with his 45 goals and 86 points has brought us no improvement.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If you take Tavares out of the Leafs line-up this season our Leafs would be battling for a WC spot with the likes Montreal and Carolina and Columbus right now and might be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.

His 2nd in the NHL in goals is what is separating the Leafs from that wild card chasing pack. IMO

Johnny has been a very important player to the Leafs and is masking some of their bigger flaws.

Big supporter of the Tavares signing, so I’m not being critical of it in the slightest.
But I still think it’s a little disengenuous to say the leafs would be battling for a playoff spot without him. Unless you mean the leafs just leave his 11 million in empty cap space.
If they used some of that space for a decent D man, 3rd line centre, and moved Kadri to 2nd line centre, the leafs would probably still be soundly sitting in a playoff position.

Where I think we’ll really see the importance of Tavares will be the playoffs. The one two punch of him and Matthews will be powerful as hell. Maybe not enough to beat Boston. We’ll see i guesss. It also is ESSENTIAL that the real Matthews shows up, and not that pathetic joke of player that coasted around like an idiot last year in the playoffs.

 

[ninetyone]

This isn't what he's arguing.

He's arguing that the addition of an elite #1C has made no improvement in the standings for us. The reason for it is up for debate, but the cold hard fact stands - JT with his 45 goals and 86 points has brought us no improvement.

That's a simplistic and completely invalid viewpoint though, that's my point. Why would you (try to) isolate adding 45 goals and 86 points while ignoring the drop off of Nylander to Zherdev and Kadri's major drop, Connor Brown's drop from 20 goals, Marleau's lackluster season.

I understand the pure fact of "adding Tavares has not made the Leafs a better team in the standings" --- but, I can also make the point "adding Komarov and Matt Martin have catapulted the Islanders to a 100pt season, replacing Tavares" - they're both equally true.

 

[IPS]

That's a simplistic and completely invalid viewpoint though, that's my point. Why would you (try to) isolate adding 45 goals and 86 points while ignoring the drop off of Nylander to Zherdev and Kadri's major drop, Connor Brown's drop from 20 goals, Marleau's lackluster season.

I understand the pure fact of "adding Tavares has not made the Leafs a better team in the standings" --- but, I can also make the point "adding Komarov and Matt Martin have catapulted the Islanders to a 100pt season, replacing Tavares" - they're both equally true.

1. Valid point with Nylander, given
2. Kadri's drop-off has alot to do with the reduced role he's had to take with Tavares. When you got two elite #1C's, minutes have to come out of someone's pocket
3. Connor Brown scored 20 goals 2 years ago, he's the same player now as last year
4. Same Marleau as last year as well, he's just not being gifted goals from Marner. If anything it's a net improvement.
5. I can easily turn around and say the breakouts of Marner, Rielly, Kapanen and Johnsson has offset all of this, but I won't.

Is this truth too inconvenient for Leafs fans to accept? It's extremely likely that we're not even in the playoffs, the Tavares signing has saved our bacon this season. Without him, it's very easy to see we would have taken a step back and miss the playoffs.

I hate excuses, and I especially hate weak excuses that all other 30 teams around the league could use too if they wanted. I'm a fan of the team, but I'll never make excuses for blatant incompetency. I seriously wish folks around here would adjust their standards for the team. We're not Kessel/Phaneuf/Bozak/JVR Leafs anymore, we have legitimately elite talent at all positions and we should be EXPECTING success.

 

[ninetyone]

1. Valid point with Nylander, given
2. Kadri's drop-off has alot to do with the reduced role he's had to take with Tavares. When you got two elite #1C's, minutes have to come out of someone's pocket
3. Connor Brown scored 20 goals 2 years ago, he's the same player now as last year
4. Same Marleau as last year as well, he's just not being gifted goals from Marner. If anything it's a net improvement.
5. I can easily turn around and say the breakouts of Marner, Rielly, Kapanen and Johnsson has offset all of this, but I won't.

Is this truth too inconvenient for Leafs fans to accept? It's extremely likely that we're not even in the playoffs, the Tavares signing has saved our bacon this season. Without him, it's very easy to see we would have taken a step back and miss the playoffs.

I hate excuses, and I especially hate weak excuses that all other 30 teams around the league could use too if they wanted. I'm a fan of the team, but I'll never make excuses for blatant incompetency. I seriously wish folks around here would adjust their standards for the team. We're not Kessel/Phaneuf/Bozak/JVR Leafs anymore, we have legitimately elite talent at all positions and we should be EXPECTING success.

Kadri's ice time is almost identical to last two years (16min 5on5 and 2plus min on the PP - actually more PP time this year) - I think he's just having a bad season. Maybe the flux of linemates and/or Nylander/Marleau struggles, who knows why, but it happens.

I think the main reason why Naz has struggled this year is a lack of chemistry with his linemates, for whatever reason. Frankly, it's Nylander I cannot stand this season. Yes, I was bitter from the whole contract situation, felt he was overvaluing himself and holding the Leafs hostage (whatever that means, he used whatever leverage he had) but he's been so erratic and difficult to play with this year, even with Auston. His game is WAY OFF, passing when he should shoot, missing the net on so many open chances, inconsistent compete level. Seems like who ever he plays with struggles.

No way skilled players like Marleau-Kadri-Nylander should STRUGGLE against 3rd-lines and 3rd pairings in this cap-NHL, NO WAY. And it needs to change asap if this team intends to have playoff success.

 

[CincoHolio]

Leafs brought in an $11 mil AAV player (2nd highest in NHL) #1C and saw little to no team improvement in the process more a break-even outcome on the regular season results.

Hopefully the playoffs is where JT shines and Leafs see the impact of his signing being a difference maker when it really counts.

If the Leafs bow out to Boston again in the 1st round it will have all been for not, his achievements this year. Same regular season results & same playoff results for the Leafs is what the JT signing will read when the dust settles.

Yeah, but the Leafs didn't just add that $11 mil player to last years team. They also swapped out several veteran players and replaced them all with rookies. To be able to still tread water after replacing 1/3 of the team with rookies is nothing to scoff at. That narrative of JT being added to last years team with no improvement is patently false because, well, this isn't last years team.

 

[IPS]

Yeah, but the Leafs didn't just add that $11 mil player to last years team. They also swapped out several veteran players and replaced them all with rookies. To be able to still tread water after replacing 1/3 of the team with rookies is nothing to scoff at. That narrative of JT being added to last years team with no improvement is patently false because, well, this isn't last years team.

Who? Komarov and Martin? Komarov devolved into a healthy scratch last year and Martin barely got any time nearing the final stretch of last year. So who's left now, JVR and Bozak? JVR was a notoriously lazy 1-way winger who was a 1-trick pony (damn good at it too), Johnsson has almost replaced his production entirely and provides much better defensive play. Bozak has been removed from the top-9 and we now run a vastly superior top-9 crew of Matthews/Tavares/Kadri.

"
replacing 1/3 of the team with rookies" - this statement is false on literally every angle.

These excuses, I just can't f***ing stand it anymore. Improvement should have been expected this year but we have people making excuses why we can't take any sort of step forward after adding a #1 franchise center? And this is ALL ON TOP of the terrific breakout years from Marner, Rielly, Johnsson and Kapanen.