John Tavares vs Erik Karlsson

[Karl Eriksson]

Neutral vote for EK the GOAT.

 

[Halla]

Karlsson is great in the playoffs. Tavares is not.

EK65 wins.

tavares has 13g/27pts in 31 games. that works out to 34g/71pts across 82 games.
the only time he didnt lead the team in playoff scoring was this season when matthews had 1 extra point.

dont let facts/stats get in the way of your bias though

 

[Halla]

Tavares just had the best season of his career and EK has missed 40games the past 2 seasons.

this is easily JT given term and injury history

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Crosby had an xGF% of 52.19% at 5on5 in the four game sweep by the Islanders, yet every single thread on this forum referencing his performance has people talking about it being "a complete no-show by Crosby" or "worst performance of his career".

Bottom line, fair or not, is these guys need to produce. And I don't think either did. Tavares scored 1 goal all series with the goalie in (the other was EN). Over a 7 game series, following a season in which he scored almost 50, I'd say that's disappointing actual production out of the guy, regardless of what the numbers say he was "expected" to score.

Exactly.

Joe Thornton has a very strong xGF% throughout his playoff career, but a poor GF%, and poor individual counting stats as well. You think I give him a pass for constantly losing the 5-on-5 goals battle in the playoffs and not scoring enough? Not a f***ing chance. Guy blows in the playoffs. I'll take broken groin EK of this year's playoffs over prime Joe Thornton in the playoffs.

Well, I think outplaying the best line in hockey is enough to make up for 5 points in 7 games. Outplaying a 4th line to a lesser extent with 1 assist in 4 games isn't really the same. Tavares outproduced both of his linemates combined and held Bergeron without a goal (and only 1 assist) at 5v5. It's pretty hard to say that's not a good performance, especially if you want to bring up Crosby's to put it down. If you want to use goals only because some Leafs fans look at goals only, that's not really my fault

"Outplaying" is a dishonest representation of his performance when the objective of the game is not expected goals. The objective of the game is goals. He did not outplay them in any stratosphere in that regard.

Wasn't Crosby matched up against the Islanders 4th line mostly, as opposed to the best line in hockey? Crosby also only put up 0 goals and 1 assist in 4 games. Quite a bit worse than 2 goals and 5 points. I think if you wanted to criticize anyone on that line for not showing up, it'd be Marner.

Karlsson got lit up at 5v5 in terms of goal differential, and got badly outplayed too. I'd argue his playoff performance was worse than Tavares'

Karlsson's playoff performance worse than Tavares!? That's hilarious! Karlsson playing defense scored at 0.84 points per game, while Tavares playing center scored 0.71 points per game. Karlsson wasn't great defensively but he scored 9 points in 7 games in the first round. If Tavares scored 9 points in 7 games against Boston, the Maple Leafs would've moved on to round two. He couldn't do that even though he is a center who was perfectly healthy and coming off of the best regular season of his career.

In the playoffs as a whole, the Sharks with Karlsson were at 44.12% GF with Karlsson and 44.44% GF without him. They were a train wreck with and without Karlsson. The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, were at 37.50% GF with Tavares and 60% without him. So, the 5-on-5 goal differential argument is in Karlsson's favor.

In the 3rd round in particular, Karlsson's team was at 57.14% GF with him and 31.58% without him. Karlsson had been getting stronger as the playoffs went on up until he re-aggravated his groin in game 4.

The only way that you can possibly say Tavares had a better playoff performance is if you play that 5-on-5 xGF% game. In which case, you've gotta tip your cap to Vegas, Nashville, Colorado, Tampa, and Winnipeg; they were the top-5 teams in playoff xGF%. Forget the fact that they only won one round between them, they must have played well because they had better xGF% than the teams they lost to.

I know @Sidney the Kidney is still disappointed in his 2016-2017 Pittsburgh Penguins - they only posted a 48.35% xG in the playoffs. Inexcusable.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Exactly.

Joe Thornton has a very strong xGF% throughout his playoff career, but a poor GF%, and poor individual counting stats as well. You think I give him a pass for constantly losing the 5-on-5 goals battle in the playoffs and not scoring enough? Not a ****ing chance. Guy blows in the playoffs. I'll take broken groin EK of this year's playoffs over prime Joe Thornton in the playoffs.



"Outplaying" is a dishonest representation of his performance when the objective of the game is not expected goals. The objective of the game is goals. He did not outplay them in any stratosphere in that regard.



Karlsson's playoff performance worse than Tavares!? That's hilarious! Karlsson playing defense scored at 0.84 points per game, while Tavares playing center scored 0.71 points per game. Karlsson wasn't great defensively but he scored 9 points in 7 games in the first round. If Tavares scored 9 points in 7 games against Boston, the Maple Leafs would've moved on to round two. He couldn't do that even though he is a center who was perfectly healthy and coming off of the best regular season of his career.

In the playoffs as a whole, the Sharks with Karlsson were at 44.12% GF with Karlsson and 44.44% GF without him. They were a train wreck with and without Karlsson. The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, were at 37.50% GF with Tavares and 60% without him. So, the 5-on-5 goal differential argument is in Karlsson's favor.

In the 3rd round in particular, Karlsson's team was at 57.14% GF with him and 31.58% without him. Karlsson had been getting stronger as the playoffs went on up until he re-aggravated his groin in game 4.

The only way that you can possibly say Tavares had a better playoff performance is if you play that 5-on-5 xGF% game. In which case, you've gotta tip your cap to Vegas, Nashville, Colorado, Tampa, and Winnipeg; they were the top-5 teams in playoff xGF%. Forget the fact that they only won one round between them, they must have played well because they had better xGF% than the teams they lost to.

I know @Sidney the Kidney is still disappointed in his 2016-2017 Pittsburgh Penguins - they only posted a 48.35% xG in the playoffs. Inexcusable.

There's obviously a different between stats that matter in the context of who wins and who loses, and stats that can help you evaluate a player's ability. Unless you want to argue Hainsey is a top 10 player in hockey because goal differential is what counts, you should understand what I mean. In terms of generating quality scoring chances and producing offense, Tavares outplayed Bergeron. There is way too much luck involved in a 7 game series to only look at goals as your sole measure for performance.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I voted Kalrsson but I'm on the fence because of his injuries. This is a better question to ask in January IMO. We'll have a better idea then.

 

[Regal]

Tavares just had the best season of his career and EK has missed 40games the past 2 seasons.

this is easily JT given term and injury history

No he didn't. He played in the highest scoring season of his career

 

[Regal]

Exactly.

Joe Thornton has a very strong xGF% throughout his playoff career, but a poor GF%, and poor individual counting stats as well. You think I give him a pass for constantly losing the 5-on-5 goals battle in the playoffs and not scoring enough? Not a ****ing chance. Guy blows in the playoffs. I'll take broken groin EK of this year's playoffs over prime Joe Thornton in the playoffs.



"Outplaying" is a dishonest representation of his performance when the objective of the game is not expected goals. The objective of the game is goals. He did not outplay them in any stratosphere in that regard.



Karlsson's playoff performance worse than Tavares!? That's hilarious! Karlsson playing defense scored at 0.84 points per game, while Tavares playing center scored 0.71 points per game. Karlsson wasn't great defensively but he scored 9 points in 7 games in the first round. If Tavares scored 9 points in 7 games against Boston, the Maple Leafs would've moved on to round two. He couldn't do that even though he is a center who was perfectly healthy and coming off of the best regular season of his career.

In the playoffs as a whole, the Sharks with Karlsson were at 44.12% GF with Karlsson and 44.44% GF without him. They were a train wreck with and without Karlsson. The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, were at 37.50% GF with Tavares and 60% without him. So, the 5-on-5 goal differential argument is in Karlsson's favor.

In the 3rd round in particular, Karlsson's team was at 57.14% GF with him and 31.58% without him. Karlsson had been getting stronger as the playoffs went on up until he re-aggravated his groin in game 4.

The only way that you can possibly say Tavares had a better playoff performance is if you play that 5-on-5 xGF% game. In which case, you've gotta tip your cap to Vegas, Nashville, Colorado, Tampa, and Winnipeg; they were the top-5 teams in playoff xGF%. Forget the fact that they only won one round between them, they must have played well because they had better xGF% than the teams they lost to.

I know @Sidney the Kidney is still disappointed in his 2016-2017 Pittsburgh Penguins - they only posted a 48.35% xG in the playoffs. Inexcusable.

I think there's a difference between a series and a career though. Over a series, there's too much variance to focus solely on the end results to determine if someone played well, which is why things like xGF can give an idea of play quality. Over a career of 179 games like Thornton, those variances should balance out, so it's easier to criticize the results

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think there's a difference between a series and a career though. Over a series, there's too much variance to focus solely on the end results to determine if someone played well, which is why things like xGF can give an idea of play quality. Over a career of 179 games like Thornton, those variances should balance out, so it's easier to criticize the results

So Crosby had a good playoffs this past year? Since the sample size was too small to account for variance, and his xGF% was positive, I mean.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Tavares because of health and 2 less years on the term.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

For my team, I'd rather have Karlsson. Just a better talent and more of a consistent impact on the game than Tavares. People here exaggerate the injury concern with him. He's going to be fine moving forward and he won't have a period of time this year to get acclimated to a new system, team, and location. I suspect he'll be a point-per-game player this year with better defensive play.

 

[Regal]

So Crosby had a good playoffs this past year? Since the sample size was too small to account for variance, and his xGF% was positive, I mean.

I'm not saying that xGF is the only measure to use, I'm saying relying solely on production in small samples is flawed. Crosby wasn't great, but he wasn't as bad as one assist in 4 games.

 

[Leafidelity]

Karlsson is not the same player he once was. He really hasn't been since the achilles injury. Tavares just finished a season with career highs.

If this was pre-Cooke Karlsson, it would probably be a no-brainer,

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'm not saying that xGF is the only measure to use, I'm saying relying solely on production in small samples is flawed. Crosby wasn't great, but he wasn't as bad as one assist in 4 games.

But that seems to be the only "measurement" being used to suggest Tavares had a good playoffs. His xGF%.

 

[Regal]

But that seems to be the only "measurement" being used to suggest Tavares had a good playoffs. His xGF%.

His had decent production, and solid xGF. I haven't looked into it, but I'm assuming his other underlying numbers are similar. I don't think anyone suggested he was overly good, just that he was ok.

 

[Agent Zub]

Oh come on. JT did show that, there is no 1 player who carries a team. Karlsson going deep with Ottawa had as much to do with their goalie playing great, and having guys like Stone and Turris on the team playing at a high level.

Wrong.

Turris and Stone were trash and Craig Anderson had only one good series.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

His had decent production, and solid xGF. I haven't looked into it, but I'm assuming his other underlying numbers are similar. I don't think anyone suggested he was overly good, just that he was ok.

The very first person I quoted in this thread seems to disagree with you.

+/- over a short series isn't exactly an ideal stat. Tavares' xgf% was 53%, which leads me to believe he played well and due to the sample, his goal differential didn't match his play. he also had more 5v5 points than both of his linemates combined

Well, I think outplaying the best line in hockey is enough to make up for 5 points in 7 games. Outplaying a 4th line to a lesser extent with 1 assist in 4 games isn't really the same. Tavares outproduced both of his linemates combined and held Bergeron without a goal (and only 1 assist) at 5v5. It's pretty hard to say that's not a good performance, especially if you want to bring up Crosby's to put it down. If you want to use goals only because some Leafs fans look at goals only, that's not really my fault

Particularly the parts I bolded. Doesn't sound like an argument for "just that he was ok".

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The very first person I quoted in this thread seems to disagree with you.




Particularly the parts I bolded. Doesn't sound like an argument for "just that he was ok".

I'd agree he was just okay for his standards as an elite player, but it would be hard to say he performed like an average player

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

His had decent production, and solid xGF. I haven't looked into it, but I'm assuming his other underlying numbers are similar. I don't think anyone suggested he was overly good, just that he was ok.

1 goal on a manned net in 7 games is not decent production for a player who scored 47 goals in the regular season.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'd agree he was just okay for his standards as an elite player, but it would be hard to say he performed like an average player

But that's not what you originally suggested. The bolded parts in your posts that I quoted above infer as much. Your original assertion seemed to be that he played well, but just didn't get the bounces (or whatever) to produce to match his play. Now you're saying he was "just okay for his standards".

I don't know why Tavares is such a teflon man. Leaf fans are more willing to criticize Marner and Matthews and acknowledge when their play was sub-standard than they are with Tavares for some reason.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

tavares has 13g/27pts in 31 games. that works out to 34g/71pts across 82 games.
the only time he didnt lead the team in playoff scoring was this season when matthews had 1 extra point.

dont let facts/stats get in the way of your bias though

Karlsson carried his team to the ECF on a broken foot and was a difference maker for the Sharks getting to the WCF these playoffs despite his groin.

Tavares failed to be the difference maker the Leafs are paying him to be in the playoffs.

Both are great players but only one has proven to not only elevate his game in the playoffs but carry his entire underachieving team.

 

[Dicdonya]

Tavares. Because 6 years and a lesser cap hit is better value.

I have more faith in Tavares being good for the next 6 years than I do in Karlsson being better than Tavares for the next 6 years and then good for 2 more after that.

That’s before even considering how wary I am of Karlsson’s injury issues lately and that I think they will continue to varying degrees over the rest of his career. I’m one Sharks fan who is not overly thrilled we signed Karlsson.

 

[joe dirte]

Neutral vote for EK the GOAT.

Neutral

 

[joe dirte]

Karlsson carried his team to the ECF on a broken foot and was a difference maker for the Sharks getting to the WCF these playoffs despite his groin.

Tavares failed to be the difference maker the Leafs are paying him to be in the playoffs.

Both are great players but only one has proven to not only elevate his game in the playoffs but carry his entire underachieving team.

Karlsson was on the ice for all of the first 12 goals in round 2 for the sharks this year. Very karlssonesque.

 

[justafan22]

Tavares.

His game will age well.