Player Discussion John Carlson - Vol. 1

[Kalopsia]

I think the votes are public if you look for them. For example Norris voting:

Huh, didn't know they put those out. Funny that it's only through the PHWA twitter account, they don't seem to put the votes up on their website. I also can't find the voting for the All Star teams, so I can't figure out who thought Ovie was a RW.

Unrelated, but by my count, 47 of the 170 voters are from the Athletic. That seems... excessive.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

And I'd have left Carlson off my ballot too. He's still a good player but his defensive impact is so bad that his gaudy point totals don't really put him in contention for the league's best defenseman this year. Off the top of my head I'd put Josi, Hedman, Pietrangelo, Slavin, and McAvoy ahead of him.

of course you would have....

 

[Hivemind]

True. Makes me wonder if we should just make our own blog out of HFCaps members. It would be... very interesting at least.

There's been a couple attempts at the past to recruit HFBoards members to blogs, but the one I wrote an article for ended up deleting all their non-Football content and switching to a pure focus on the Burgundy & Gold.

 

[Hivemind]

Unrelated, but by my count, 47 of the 170 voters are from the Athletic. That seems... excessive.

I think that speaks to more the state of sports media. So many other ad-based publications are cutting costs by releasing expensive journalists in favor of cheap content, and the subscription-based Athletic is gobbling up whoever they can. I'd wager that nearly 100% of those voters were members of the PHWA before they joined the Athletic.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

///

Unrelated, but by my count, 47 of the 170 voters are from the Athletic. That seems... excessive.

By my quick count JC received a first- or second-place vote from 87 percent of the ballots not affiliated with the Athletic (107/123), but only 68.1 percent of Athletic voters (32/47). Maybe a bit of group-think (or worse) going on there.

It seems like a lot of writers affiliated with the Athletic are also tied to other media orgs. Pierre LeBrun, e.g.

fwiw, I thought the Carly for Norris campaign should have been put to bed after his play deteriorated in 2020.

 

[um]

Not surprised Carlson didn't win the Norris - offensively strong Washington dmen make writers experts on defensive play. (See: Gonchar, Green.) Now, had he played last season for a Canadian team, he would have won easily.

Josi had an amazing year, he deserved it.

 

[tenken00]

There's been a couple attempts at the past to recruit HFBoards members to blogs, but the one I wrote an article for ended up deleting all their non-Football content and switching to a pure focus on the Burgundy & Gold.

I'd imagine it's a little harder now with Covid because there probably is more restrictions on access. I remember a guy that I worked in the same office building with (different companies) back in the early 2010s telling me that he often can just ask and receive a media pass because he wrote guest articles for Japersrink on the side. But I guess since a lot of people have a lot of time on their hands now, why not write blogs.

 

[Carlzner]

I trust the opinion of bloggers more than the likes of Steve Simmons, Ken Campbell, Pierre McGuire, etc.

And I'd have left Carlson off my ballot too. He's still a good player but his defensive impact is so bad that his gaudy point totals don't really put him in contention for the league's best defenseman this year. Off the top of my head I'd put Josi, Hedman, Pietrangelo, Slavin, and McAvoy ahead of him.

Zing!

 

[twabby]

Here is Dom's reasoning behind leaving Carlson off the ballot and it's more than reasonable:

Carlson had some very splashy point totals and that generally means he played a big role in the offence. He had 75 points in 69 games, an absurd number that led all defencemen by 10. And that wasn’t built up by feeding Alex Ovechkin for one-timers, either; he was a driver at 5-on-5 leading the league in points per 60 among defencemen.

The question of Carlson’s total value comes two-fold: how much offence did he actually drive and does it make up for his defensive weaknesses?

I had nine names I was debating – the five listed above, Carlson, Miro Heiskanen, Dougie Hamilton (yes, even in just 47 games he was that good) and Jaccob Slavin. Of those nine here’s where Carlson ranked in terms of various on ice-metrics, both raw and using RAPM which accounts for teammates and opponents.

Offence
GF/60: 3rd
RAPM GF/60: 4th
xGF/60: 7th
RAPM xGF/60: 8th

Defence
GA/60: 9th
RAPM GA/60: 8th
xGA/60: 9th
RAPM xGA/60: 9th

Overall
GF%: 9th
RAPM GF%: 8th
xGF%: 9th
RAPM xGF%: 9th

Oh, and on the power play he ranked sixth in goal impact by RAPM and raw totals, only ahead of the three defenders who don’t get time on the top power play unit. Is this your king?

In terms of on-ice metrics, it’s very hard to see an argument for Carlson’s merit as the other teams benefitted much more from the presence of their star defenceman than Washington did with Carlson. The defensive metrics are the worst of the field (and among the worst in the league, frankly) and his offence simply isn’t enough to shoulder that burden. Despite all those points he scored, he wasn’t even first in that category suggesting that while he may be more of a focal point to Washington’s offence, it didn’t actually help them score more goals than say, Josi or Hedman.

It’s the overall numbers that hurt his candidacy. Of the nine defenders, Carlson was the only one that was outchanced for the year and the only player whose team outscored and outchanced teams with him on the bench. The difference between him and the next worst defender by expected goals percentage here is over 4 percentage points. By goals, it’s close at 3.6. That’s a chasm that’s hard to ignore.

Why I left Draisaitl, Carlson and Couturier off my NHL awards ballot

 

[Carlzner]

All of those stats happen in a vacuum. The now fired coach and Kempny/Siegenthaler as partners had 0 effect!

 

[Carlzner]

Surely it's just a coincidence that Carlson looks completely dominant when paired with pre-injury Kempny or legitimate top 4 defenseman Orlov

 

[hb12xchamps]

So he used a bunch of analytics to make his decision. Shocker.

 

[twabby]

All of those stats happen in a vacuum.

No they did not. Some of his analysis takes into account teammates and opposition, where Carlson still performed worse than the other Norris candidates. He literally says that in the quoted passage!

 

[twabby]

So he used a bunch of analytics to make his decision. Shocker.

Yes? I mean what case is there to make for Carlson other than points, which is just another stat?

 

[Corby78]

Garbage thought process. Best defenseman means both defensively and offensively. So he tossed out one side in favor of the other. He said Carlson's defensive numbers weren't as good as Slavin or Hamilton, but where were their offensive numbers?

I'm not saying he should have won, but that logic is flawed.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Yes? I mean what case is there to make for Carlson other than points, which is just another stat?

To say he wasn’t a top 5 dman over the course of this season is a stupid argument. He wasn’t the best defensive defenseman and he never will be a top guy in his own zone but it’s a slap in the face to leave him off the ballot when he had an absolute monster of a year offensively.

Analytics are not everything. Clearly this Dom guy loves them, which is fine, but to only use analytics to judge how to vote is flawed IMO

 

[Corby78]

Yes? I mean what case is there to make for Carlson other than points, which is just another stat?

He was strong defensively in the first half of the year, and while he did slip, lets not act like he was a black hole. He played huge minutes and played against top lines. Its also not just scoring and blocking shots, it moving the puck. Something else he can do.

Only caps fans would piss on the closest Norris Trophy winner we have had since Langway.

 

[txpd]

Points are just another stat. Wow. Ok....so are goals just another stat?

 

[Hivemind]

Green finishing 2nd to Chara's lifetime achievement Norris was a much bigger snub than Carlson finishing 2nd to Josi.

Points are just another stat. Wow. Ok....so are goals just another stat?

Yes.

 

[txpd]

Green finishing 2nd to Chara's lifetime achievement Norris was a much bigger snub than Carlson finishing 2nd to Josi.


Yes.

Green deserved that 31 goals Norris. Seems I need to recalibrate. I thought Ov was great. If goals are just another stat, maybe I am wrong.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

Rejecting Dom whatever's argument because it's "analytics" isn't legitimate. Actually understanding it and then rejecting it because specific things in it are not correct would be.

(Of course, in this particular case, you would have to be able to access the inner workings of his "model," which I assume isn't possible.)

Points are just another stat. Wow. Ok....so are goals just another stat?

Yes, but points are defined arbitrarily, whereas goals have one fixed definition. Secondary assists could easily not count, or tertiary assists could count, or whether assists count could depend on context, etc.

 

[Ridley Simon]

And I'd have left Carlson off my ballot too. He's still a good player but his defensive impact is so bad that his gaudy point totals don't really put him in contention for the league's best defenseman this year. Off the top of my head I'd put Josi, Hedman, Pietrangelo, Slavin, and McAvoy ahead of him.

The cut of your jib just took a serious hit with me, mister. And I’d wager @CapitalsCupReality as well.

BOOOOOO

(LOL)

 

[Ridley Simon]

Josi had an amazing year, he deserved it.

Easy when your partner is also a 1D. I mean, seriously.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Yes? I mean what case is there to make for Carlson other than points, which is just another stat?

What stat is more important than scoring points?

he had mostly bad G play behind him (save Samsonov’s first few months), a bad D partner, and now it looks like bad coaching to boot.

Put Carlson in Josi’s role in Nash. We all really think he’s do worse?

or flip side — our Josi in Carlsons role in DC. He’d do better?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Green finishing 2nd to Chara's lifetime achievement Norris was a much bigger snub than Carlson finishing 2nd to Josi.


Yes.

@Hivemind

Hard to take your contributions to any discussion seriously when you ignore half the boards commentary. Talk about trying to only play (and own) your own sandbox.