Pavs deserves 8 million but I just don't see the Sharks being able to pay him that without shipping out Braun and Vlassic. Which I believe they should BTW.
Speculation: Joe Pavelski's next contract
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hohosaregood
Banned
- Sep 1, 2011
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I could see 3x$6m if he stays. He's already slow and getting slower won't help his case but he's effective and will likely stay effective. I think that the aging curve and term will keep his AAV down. It's a lower cap hit but I think it's unlikely he gets either a long term or a high cap hit and certainly not both on the same deal. This would be a solid middle ground for a guy who eventually becomes a 2nd/3rd liner.
one2gamble
Registered User
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KirbyDots
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- May 10, 2011
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This. Sharks need to move out non-essential players this offseason. Pavs has proven himself invaluable to the team and should get a new contract as long as his demands are reasonable. We have a good crop of prospects who will be going pro next season, give them a shot to fill in the gaps.
So based on some quick math: they have 24.5M now and then moving Braun + Melker + swapping out Dell for Bibeau opens up 7M = 31.5M
EK65 + Meier + Labanc would cost probably somewhere along the lines of 19.5M collectively if we're being optimistic. That leaves 12M to fill two top-6 winger spots, 3C and 4C spots, 13th forward, and 6th/7th D spots. If you assume that Jumbo, Ryan, Heed, and two AHLers like True and Gambrell fill the last 5 of those on that list for about 5M, you are left with 7M to fill two top-6 winger spots. Best case scenario in terms of paying Pavs for one of those spots is about 6M if you use a guy like Perron/Chtwin on the other line (or Labanc in the top-6 and Perron/Chtwin on the 3rd line).
Boy Hedican
Homer Jr, friends call me Ho-Ju
Bingo bango. My source pretty much said the same thing, more so about the family stuff. He wants to be a Shark for life.
This rarely gets discussed, but I’m sure there are perks for playing for an owner like ours. I’m not talking straight cash obviously, more so investment opportunities. Wonder how much that plays a role, if any...
Pavs is a savvy guy. He figured out how to be a 30+ goal scorer in a league where he’s outmatched physically (save for hand eye). I bet the guy is smart enough to figure out how to get this money to make money. When you have millions it isn’t that hard.
Add to the fact that we’re a world class org, etc...
I am 100% sure Jumbo will be back for another discounted year and nothing would make me happier.
Those numbers are slightly off, if you're taking them from Capfriendly right now the Sharks are carrying 9 D, 14 forwards and 2 goalies. If you pull off Middleton and Radil, that's 1.5 extra, plus the 3.5 approximate increase in the cap. That puts the Sharks at 26.2 in cap space. Moving out Braun and Melker adds 5.8, that's 32 million in cap space. If they also move Dell it's up to 33.9. I estimated 12 for Karlsson, 7.5 for Pavs, 5 for Timo, 3 for Labanc and 1 for Thornton. That's 28.5 of the 33.9. That leaves 5.4 to fill out the rest of the roster. A combination of Gambrell, True, Suomela, Radil filling out the bottom lines and re-signing Ryan and Heed for near league minimum and everything just fits. Now I'm trying to estimate a bit on the high side for Pavs and Meier because I'd rather be pleased that the numbers were lower than what I put. Pavs future with the team isn't really dependent on anything other than him signing a contract with the Sharks. Doug isn't gonna let him walk.
I pulled the 21M-ish number from their 2019-2020 projected cap space for the Sharks and added 3.5M since the cap is projected to be 83M while their projection had it at this year's 79.5M.
One comforting thought: if another team signs him, it means that it's probably to a bad deal (ala Marleau); otherwise --- we would match.
Right, but the roster is over the maximum allowable size at the beginning of the season right now. They have 25 on the roster, they can only have 23 at the beginning of the year. That 1.5 million doesn’t make a huge difference when you take off Middleton and Radil because Radil will for sure be on the team next year and Middleton May very well be. So really, there's nothing wrong with the numbers you put.
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I think you guys are getting hung up on semantics... I think the other dude just means that Pav is going to be old when the contract starts. It's more focused on his age as it relates to Pavs potential declining ability. He could have worded it better to avoid this.
Then keep it on the age and don't include the lingo that refers to a contract status when it doesn't apply and there's no confusion.
Gilligans Island
Registered User
I hope so. If Pavs and DW can agree to the above, why not tack on a 4th year (which likely would be bought out). Something like this:
Year 1: $6.5M
Year 2: $5.75M
Year 3: $4.5M
That would be a $5.583M AAV. Now tack on a 4th year at $2.5M (or lower - whatever is the max allowable dropoff in salary - 50%?). The AAV drops to $4.8125M. A fantastic cap hit.
That 4th year can then be bought at 2/3rds the cost spread over year 4 and year 5. Basically Pavs gets a little bit of a "retirement" bonus ($1.667M), while the Sharks get a buyout of $833K for years 4 and 5.
That'd be a great deal for both sides. The key is going to come down to term - how many years does Pavs want to sign for. If it's 3, the above is a starting pt. If longer, this will become a tough negotiation.
Right, but the roster is over the maximum allowable size at the beginning of the season right now. They have 25 on the roster, they can only have 23 at the beginning of the year. That 1.5 million doesn’t make a huge difference when you take off Middleton and Radil because Radil will for sure be on the team next year and Middleton May very well be. So really, there's nothing wrong with the numbers you put.
No, that's the roster for this season. The roster for next season that's on there (w/ the 21M in space) only has two goalies, 5D, and 6F. Link: San Jose Sharks - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
The earlier roster had Radil and Middleton included next year because they were called up earlier today on were on the roster today. They were sent down after the game started and no longer show up on CapFriendly roster for today or for next years team. The amount of cap space listed on the link for next year is 22.6 million with 5D, 6F and 2 goalies. The roster with 21 million in space had 6D, 7F and 2 goalies.
No way pavs deal would be that low even for the sharks
Realistically he’s been a coveted player by many loved by GM’s players and fans for a long time if you were to hit you up for some team would likely give him minimum 8milliok ×3 or even four years for stability to get the deal done
Obviously sharks have flexibility with the under 35 contract but even so I think if they work together he may go for five years 30 million.
You can go 7.5 7.5 7.5. 3.75,3.75 Last two years which would be compliant with the collective-bargaining agreement not dropping by 50% of the total amount. He comes in a hair lower than it’s worth and likely is paid fairly for his first three years if his play dips the salary is probably right in line is how last two years which would be compliant with the collective-bargaining agreement not dropping by 50% of the total amount.
6 mill cap hit And as mentioned after three years when he’s 3839 if you still wants to play that salary he’s taking home is likely probably on play on par with what is bringing to the ice to me this is a lot more realistic
Ah, yeah - good call. My numbers were from before they were sent down.
OrrNumber4
Registered User
- Jul 25, 2002
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It really depends on how much Pavelski wants to bet on himself. We can throw statistics and make an objective analysis about how players regress all day long, but:
1) Applying averages to an individual is a bad idea.
2) Someone might be willing to bet on Pavelski with a fat contract, and that's what the Sharks have to compete with. That's what Dubas did with Marleau, even if it hasn't worked out (or maybe it has...maybe Dubas saw this year and the next the price for getting Marleau to mentor his young players).
3) Pavelski might wonder how the Sharks will look in 3-5 years. Pavelski wants to win a cup as well; he might want to be able to bolt in a few years and play a role (even if a small one) on a contender.
LeeIFBB
Crossing the Rubicon
He won't take a discount and why should he?
There are more than a few of skells on this roster that he is more deserving than.
There are more than a few of skells on this roster that he is more deserving than.
Probably a good guess because with Jack Hughes, they probably need a mentor with playoff experience.
If the Sharks exit on the 1st round, I believe there's a decent chance that JP8, EK65, and KLB62 will be lost to the FA market.
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LA Shark
Hello Darkness My Old Freind
Why would we give up the rights to Labanc regardless of postseason results?
