You're mistaken and attacking a point I didn't make. I was discussing the Habs development through the AHL as a whole when accounting for their individual draft positions. You bring up Morgan Ellis and say about how he dominated Junior and ask what happened? Historically only 3 out of 20 4th round picks play 100 games with only 1 out of those 3 being a top 4 defencemen. He was a 4th round pick for a reason. Would he have developed into an NHL defender in say Nashville? Maybe, but that's an exercise in futility as we'll never know either way if that is the case. What we do know, from TSN's data going back to the 1990 draft is the expectation of success for a given pick from a given round. Sly graduated the average according to their research. I removed players who had injuries or played a significantly short amount of time (ie. Gallagher).
I'm not trying to mount some defense of Sly. His teams were bad. The coach has to bear responsibility for that. At the same time I recognize that MB as well as our 2010/2011 drafts take some responsibility too. Top 100 picks should make up the crux of your AHL team, and we chose to trade most of them. We shouldn't be shocked by the result.
As you stated, we haven't developed a top 6 top 4 player. While the odds have been low that we were going to do this anyway considering where we drafted, I agree that at some point you have to cut bait and move on. Paired with the teams dismal records, firing Sly was the right move.
But that doesn't mean that in one aspect, getting players to the NHL, Sly hasn't been average at. If you want to argue that Average in this league isn't good enough and that we have to be better, than I can get on board. But lets not make up alternative histories, or ignore facts because they are inconvenient for us. Quite frankly, with this management team, we don't have too.
And you are mistaken and attacking a point that I didn't make. You're also simultaneously making a high school level error in your use of statistics and probability.
I wasn't praising Morgan Ellis as a "4th rounder", you'll notice that I did not mention Steve Quailer, Jason Missiaen, or Mark MacMillan, none of whom ever showed much promise. I specifically brought up Morgan Ellis. Ellis was not simply a 4th rounder by the time he got in touch with Lefebvre -- he had subsequently played two additional years in the CHL. In those two years he improved substantially, where he got more points and more roles. If a 2010 redraft were performed in 2012, he would have been drafted substantially earlier than 117th overall. 52 points in 60 games is very impressive for a defenseman.
You are not the first member of the hindsight-loving / Bergevin-defense brigade to casually dismiss Ellis as a 4th rounder. But it's intellectually dishonest, because he was seen as far more than a 4th rounder by 2012. He was very highly respected on this forum, and if you go back to forum posts of that time people spoke of Tinordi, Beaulieu, and Ellis as a trio of excellent incoming defense prospects.
Once those two additional years happened, it becomes a logical fallacy to dismiss a player as a 4th rounder. A player's draft rank is a meaningful diagnostic on the day after the draft. Once you have additional years of development or under-development happen, then that has to be taken into account in your probability. Don't even bother debating this as it's basic science.
Moreover, the statistic of "top-100" picks is obviously not as robust as you make it out to be. These weren't random top-100 picks, they were Timmins picks. Timmins had proven himself adept at evaluating talent, both in his time with Ottawa and in his time with Montreal. He did very well with late-round picks back when professionals such as Don Lever were running development. Your pseudoscientific use of statistics ignores that correction factor. Google what a "probabilistic prior" is, you'll learn something, and it will help you make more informed posts in the future.
However, none of them were adequately developed under Lefebvre/Therrien. Lefebvre just had no clue how to develop defenseman. It's been six years now, SIX YEARS, and the only defenseman to make the NHL is Greg Pateryn, and he's only done so because the Stars organization is more adept at evaluating talent. He was playing in the Habs' system for years and they had absolutely no idea that he was an adequate 5/6 dman, they have traded away an infinitude of picks to acquire "depth" 5/6 dman to play in his place.
Morgan Ellis was a good prospect, as were Tinordi, Beaulieu, Pateryn, Nygren, etc. Lefebvre did nothing with them. Thankfully, Lefebvre's interaction with Noah Juulsen is limited to 31 games, otherwise he would have certainly busted as well. However, now that Joel Bouchard is taking over, Juulsen has a good chance to become a top-4 player in the NHL, as long as he stays healthy.