Why Pittsburgh Should Win:
Pretty sure a handful of people have voted already but here's my final overview:
1. The Gap on the Blueline is Massive.
Pittsburgh can counter Taylor and Lalonde with Stevens-Orr and Laperriere-Seibert. Essentially all game, all series.
Arizona doesn't have a true shutdown or game breaking player from the back end. Orr is that offensively at this level and Stevens certainly is defensively. As a #3, Seibert is an elite presence and Laperriere passes for a #2 in a draft this size so he's a big upgrade over the normal #4 type.
The impact of this is 2 lines that are going to legitimately threaten to score from Arizona will never get away from a incredibly tough pairing. There are no easy shifts against bottom feeder ATD Dmen.
Conversely, Pittsburgh will see Reardon-Crawford and Patrick-Svedberg for roughly 35 minutes of the hockey game. That bottom pairing especially is not exactly strong defensively speaking. And they'll need to eat up 14/15 minutes each.
2. Coaching Fit
Pete Green absolutely proved he could win with multiple styles of hockey. He preached defensive responsibility during his first tenure as HC and even showed the usage of holding a F back while the D (Taylor/Shore) rushed the puck from the back end.
Pittsburgh was careful to consider the defensive responsibility of the F's, hence grabbing Cook, Lemaire, Martinec, Anderson, Crawford, Poulin, Metz, etc, and limiting the liabilities to Tanguay and to a lesser degree Cournoyer.
The top scorer for Ottawa during Green's first run was a C and strong goalscorer Marty Walsh.
That matches up well with a team running Malone-Lemaire-Hawerchuk as those 3 are the best offensive players on each line (Lemaire/Cournoyer are essentially washes, i give the tie to the more complete player though)
You can see the offensive dominance Ottawa produced under Green here (from his bio last year):
COACHING RECORD - 1ST TIME WITH OTTAWA (1909-1913)
1909:
10-2 (1st in ECAHA - 4 teams)
117 Goals For - 1st in league, +35 ahead of 2nd
63 Goals Against -2nd in league, -2 behind 1st
SC CHAMPIONS
1910:
9-3 (2nd in NHA - 7 teams)
89 GF - 3rd in league, -7 behind 1st
66 GA - 3rd in league, -25 behind 1st
CO-SC CHAMPIONS
Def Gault 15-4 over 2 games during 1st SC challenge
Def Edmonton 21-11 over 2 games during 2nd SC challenge
Lost Cup to Wanderers who won NHA regular season title
1911:
13-3 (1st in NHA - 5 teams)
122 GF - 1st in league, +31 ahead of 2nd
69 GA - 2nd in league, -7 behind 2nd
O'BRIEN TROPHY (NHA TITLE)
SC CHAMPIONS
1912:
9-9 (T2nd in NHA - 4 teams)
99 GF - 1st in league, +4 ahead of 2nd
83 GA - 3rd in league, -17 behind 1st
1913:
9-11 (T3rd in NHA - 6 teams)
87 GF - 3rd in league, -25 behind 1st
81 GA - T2nd in league, -6 behind 1st
TOTALS:
50-28 - .641 W%
514 GF
362 GA
+152
Tarasov coached a very specific way with a very specific set of ideals as it pertained to tactics. I think Arizona's team can skate for Tarasov, they have the premium 1-2 punch down the middle at C, but players like Jackson and Smith are questions marks defensively, especially the latter. Outside of Lepine their defensive ability down the middle is pretty meh, which is where Pittsburgh's 2 best offensive players reside (Malone/Hawerchuk) and Malone will be deployed away from the Walker-Lepine-Oatman line on home ice.
I think the top pairing is redundant with 2 offensive slanted players together (Goodfellow/Clapper) leaving an average puck moving group to handle the 2nd team duties and finally I think Patrick-Svedberg is an exploitable bottom paring needing to play meaningful minutes. Those 2 read like offensive first players.
And finally, Tarasov didn't even coach the National Team on his own, which is where the Soviets would have faced the stiffest competition vs 1940's and 50's domestic hockey in the USSR.
He doesn't have his long time National Team partner on the bench in Arkady Chernyshov to bounce ideas off of or check the boxes that Tarasov himself might have been weak on.
You can see Theo confirm Tarasov not coaching the NT by himself on page 1.
3. Pittsburgh Forwards Can Generate As Much Offense as Arizona's:
It's fleshed out fully whether overall score or ES. The numbers are all verified post 1927 and the pre consolidation estimates were seen and confirmed by other parties besides myself.
Not only do the numbers bear it out, you then have to consider the obstacles each F unit will be facing all series, namely the huge disparity on the blue line.
Context can be applied everywhere in this field and VsX has long been used to give voters a good idea of where value falls. If you're going to start moving goalposts on Bucyk, then you should be doing it for other players that were on insanely good teams, posing as the 4th or 5th or 6th best player, benefitting from numerous HOF'er around them. We can do this throughout history.
I was generous in giving a bump to a few of Arizona's Fs on estimates, especially at ES and if you'd like to strip Bucyk and Cook of 10 odd points a piece be my guest. It doesn't title the overall figures back to Arizona as Pitt is up 30 in overall VsX across the top 9.
Even if you aren't going to compromise at all on Bucyk's VsX, I'd hope people are taking into account that he's surrounded by Orr and better players collectively. If there was a team he'd be able to hits that inflated 88, this might be it. That and he brings a whole lot to the table besides raw scoring.
Bucyk is clearly the 3rd wheel on the line and is not being asked to shoulder any load that he didn't in real life.
Cook's the one score that I'll definitely give on since he's downgraded linemates from real life. Even still, the fit is still very good and he checks the boxes off on the 2nd line very well.
Anderson has C who produced offense at a very near Messier rate and I'm 99% sure Tanguay represents more offense than whoever was at LW for Edmonton on the Messier-Anderson unit (before 86-87 not sure who it was, Tikkanen in 86-87 and 88 I think)
And that C, Hawerchuk wasn't skating on a dynasty like Messier. Those are cold hard facts. Anderson can do what he did best. Skate better than 99% of people, elite on the forecheck, elite pest, and ultra depth playoff ringer who will score dirty and clutch goals.
Hawerchuk especially made a carer driving a below average to shit franchise for the duration of the 80's, in the same division as the Oilers and Flames. Asking him to drive a 3rd unit with better wingers and vastly better Dmen shouldn't be an issue IMO.
Then factor in what Orr represents when he's on the ice for 30 minutes a night. He injects 114.8 level offense onto any F unit.
4. Special Teams:
Don't need to go into much depth as I just did the overview on that last night.
Pittsbrugh has vastly better PK Dmen. Our 4 F's are as good as Arizona's and Pittsburgh has the greatest PP weapon in Orr, and absolutely more scoring depth on the man advantage.
Pittsburgh IMO has the best PK in the ATD this year and if you include both PP units, is certainly above average there thanks to being able to deploy Orr and players like Martinec, Hawerchuk, and Lemaire on the second team. I didn't overload my top unit as others have.
5. Playoff Performers (Not Just Looking at G)
I outlined this well last night. Pittsburgh's F's scoring rates int he playoffs are fabulous. They drop far less than the Arizona counterparts.
I think Pittsburgh has better F's up front when it comes to the playoffs, and the gap on the blue line is quite significant.
Lemaire and Cournoyer were playoff beasts for the entirety of their careers. Cournoyer a Smythe winner.
Martinec's big game record on the international stage, especially vs the Soviets and NA players is fabulous. He was an offensive force in the 70's for the Czech team (all time leading scorer in the WC's) and played well often in the biggest games. Best RW over Mikhailov 4 straight years on the world stage is a big bullet point for Vlad IMO.
Anderson was a money player. So many huge goals scored for Edmonton and even a few w/NY. He lives for the playoffs.
Metz had a strong playoff career as a checking line player. His scoring rose more than a tick in the playoffs to boot which is pretty rare to see.
Bucyk has a very solid career, was integral on both SC winners and like the others, his scoring rate dips far less than other Arizona F's.
Bobby Orr, Scott Stevens and Earl Seibert combine for FOUR Conn Smuthes (3 regular/1 retro). Even Laperriere was solid in the playoffs, his real issue is having missed a few series that might have further helped this portion of his resume.
This is the greatest and most battle tested top 4 ever in the ATD.
Johnny Bower is certainly a downgrade from Roy, but he's far from a poor goalie in a 24 team league and his very best attribute was playoff performances. More than once he dominated better goalies head to head (Plante, Hall, Sawchuk) so he's not going to be intimidated facing Roy at the other end.
Bower has an insanely good top 4 protecting him, it miles better than the great one he had in Toronto in the 60's.
Matchups:
I already outlined the big advantage Pittsburgh's top 4 brings.
By going power on power (top line vs top line) we cancel out their offensive advantage and take advantage of a ? defensively in Jackson especially. At LW he'll have to check Martinec AND Orr and I think that is a CLEAR Pittsburgh win.
Orr is also kept away from Walker and Prentice by doing this on home ice meaning Jackson and Roberts will be seeing more of him than the other 2 certainly.
The goal here is to neutralize the top unit of Arizona by making them play much more D than normal and chase Orr/Martinec. Their top line has one good defensive player (Alfredsson) and 2 others that are nothing special. I'm not worried about them playing better defensively than Bucyk-Malone-Martinec.
Stevens-Orr lifts this 5 man unit clearly above Arizona's. Hockey is not played in sections.
This allows us to focus Crawford-Poulin-Metz on the Lalonde unit, and they'll be backed by what would be a strong top pairing in Lappy-Seibert. Those 2 bring elite size and great physicality, especially Seibert, who will also keep Lalonde in check from pulling any of the stupid chippy stuff (Stevens as well).
Poulin is fresher than Lalonde and a Selke caliber C who plays a buzzsaw game. He was great in the dot and not a black hole compared to some other defensive slanted C's.
As I stated above, outside of Lepine, Arizona doesn't really have any plus defensive C's. 2 average guys 1-2 and a poor defensive player in Smith on the 4th line and Pittsburgh's top scorer on the 1st and 3rd lines are C w/Lemaire being a playoff scoring demon.
Poulin is a Selke level C, Lemaire was good, and even Malone was shown by overpass to be at least a responsible backchecker with various quotes on the matter. Hawerchuk is going to be playing a titled offensive role here but again, Team Canada thought enough of him to roster 5 separate times and he always accepted a checking role with zero fuss and famously did very well in the 87 battle vs the KLM line.