Top 6 Offensive Values: (VsX7 and ES VsX)
Pittsburgh's Top Line:
Malone = *95.0 VsX7 - *64 ES VsX
(Dreak calculated Malone at 95 or 96 IIRC and I took 95 x .33 to come up with estimated ES VsX)
Bucyk = 88.7 VsX7- 60 ES VsX
Martinec = *82.5 VsX7 - *56 ES VsX
(I think this score is low considering that puts him on an Alfredsson level and I don't think Alf is the same class of offensive winger as Martinec. There is enough video evidence and international stats, especially against the Soviets and NA to put me in the camp this score undervalues Martinec. But hey I was told 85-90 seemed too high so compromises must be made in life. 82.5 x .33 got me ESVsX)
Pittsburgh Top Line = 266.2 VsX7 - 180 ES VsX
Arizon's Top Line:
Taylor = *105.0 VsX7 - *70 ES VsX
(Puts him slightly over Crosby and right between Mikita and Beliveau. I think this is more than fair. 105 x .33 got me ES VsX)
Jackson = 89.5 - *59 ES VsX
(89.5 x .33 for ES VsX)
Alfredsson = 82.3 - 55 ES VsX
Arizona's Top Line = 276.8 VsX7 - 184 ES VsX
Pittsburgh 2nd Line:
Cook = 76.3 VsX7 - *51 ES VsX
*76.3 x .33 to represent 33% PP scoring which is probably high. Trying to be unbiased
Lemaire = 77.9 VsX7 - 55 ES VsX
Cournoyer = 77.1 - 48 ES VsX
Pittsburgh's Second Line = 231.3 VsX7 - 154 ES VsX
Arizona's 2nd Line:
Lalonde = *100.0 VsX7 - *67 ESVsX
(pretty sure I saw Dreak come up with a 98 something but I’ll round Newsy up to an even Ben Franklin. 100 x .33 to represent PP scoring)
MacKay = *80.0 VsX7 - *54 ES VsX
Prentice = 67.0 VsX7 - 51 ES VsX
Arizona's Second Line = 247.0 VsX7 - 172 ES VsX
I’m sure RB will kick and scream over this but 80 is at least close. Consider:
Mickey MacKay Non Consolidated finishes of:
2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, 9, 10th x 3
Joe Malone Non Consolidated Finishes of:
1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 4*, 5, 6, 7, 13**
*1920-21 - Malone finished 4th outright but missed 4 games. 37 points in 20 games. 1.85 x 4 = 7.4
Adding another 7 points to his total would have seen him win the scoring title by 1 point over Lalonde
**1914-15 - Malone finished 13th but missed 8 of the 20 games. He had 21 goals in 12 games. 1.75 x 8 = 15. He would have finished 3rd overall with a full slate of games at the pace he set through 12 games.
Then consider MacKay played his entire career for the Millionaire, the most stacked hockey rosters outside of the Pete Green 20's Senators.
Further consider he’s playing away from his primary position (C/R) over at RW. This matters.
And until we get a much more detailed version of the scoring/game breakdowns of his time at RW, you can’t legitimately assign a max value to MacKay given the bulk of his career did come at C/R.
Could he be worth more than a relative 80? Sure, but I'm not convinced he is as of now.
Plus, as I’ve already highlighted as did
@Hawkey town last series, MacKay loses a good bit of his defensive value as he was a neutral zone poke/hook check artist. He molded that style after Nighbor and playing RW robs his ability to play in that C ice area.
Honestly, how much of a gap is there between MacKay as a RW and Cournoyer as a RW?
The latter of which is playing with his real life linemates of multiple seasons, the best seasons of their career came skating together, including a pair of SC's (71 and 73) which saw them post great postseason numbers and Cournoyer win a Conn Smythe (73)
Canadians1958 and
@BenchBrawl fully fleshed out the myth of Guy Lafleur inflating their numbers.
Here you can see C1958 (watched his entire career) pointing out that Lemaire was actually great at generating transition.
Cournoyer vs Lemaire
Pretince is Weak as 2nd Line Player:
Very legit argument he’s the worst 2nd liner on either squad considering his offensive output is below Cook’s and Cook can lay claim to being one of the best defensive wingers of his era and an elite PK’er. These are fully detailed by both in by bio done this year via game reports and contemporary praise outside NY.
You can’t say Prentice is a better skater. Not better offensively. If you want to shave some points from Cook to get them even, no big deal. Prentice is not better defensively. Cook's bio puts him ahead IMO. Just way more total info on the defensive/PK game to include contemporary praise from cities outside NY. Cook played on multiple Cup winners so experience in this environment favors Cook.
Cook’s clearly a better PK’er considering his PK ability is specifically talked about as being as good or better than anyone by papers outside NY and was compared to elite HOF’ers in his ability to rag the puck on the kill. He was also clearly being used a lot on the kill before he even set foot in the NHL when he was out west in the WCHL.
Prentice doesn’t show up on the special teams report usage chart for the kill so I’m assuming he was under 30% for his career. He scored 16 points on the kill in well over 1300 games so he clearly wasn’t much of a threat to register for you there.
And furthermore, putting a weak offensive player like Pretenic on the line, makes it easier to defend for Pittsburgh and that's fine by me, considering the back end Pittsburgh has. Prentice is weak and MacKay in a secondary position which strips him of at least a little bit of his overall value.
Arizona's Top 6 = 276.8 + 247.0
= 523.8 VsX7 - 356 ES VsX
Pittsburgh's Top 6 = 266.2 + 231.3
= 497.5 - 334 ES VsX
Top 9 Offensive Value (VsX7 and ES VsX):
Pittsburgh 3rd Line:
Tanguay = 73.4 VsX7 – 58 ES VsX
Hawerchuk = 86.0 VsX7 – 58 ES VsX
Anderson = 72.9 VsX7 – 55 ES VsX
Pittsburgh 3rd Line = 232.3 - 171 ES
Arizona's 3rd Line:
Walker = *60.0 VsX7 – 48 ES VsX
(60 x .20 to represent 20% of scoring on PP which is likely generous considering guys played most/all of the game so they’d have been on the ice essentially any time there was a man advantage situation.
(Two 4th place finishes and 8, 9, 9 , 10 in
non-consolidated leagues is not impressive for me to get him out of the 60 range and it’s not like he wasn’t skating with some serious talent on his rosters. Here he's playing a pure checking role. I think 60 is extremely generous and ES score slightly generous.)
Lepine = 52.9 VsX7 – 47 ES VsX*
(52.9 x .10 which is essentially giving him nothing on the PP. Trying to be generous w/these scores. BTW, Lepine's VsX7 is legit, using yearly benchmarks)
Oatman = *65.0 VsX7 – *52 ES VsX
(65 x .20)
Compare his scoring finishes in the PCHA to Smokey Harris who IIRC comes in via Dreak at 67.2
Harris Consolidated:
3rd(1921), 4th(1919), 7th(1920), 8th(1913), 17th(1917),
Oatman Consolidated:
7th(1920), 9th(1918), 11th(1912), 11th(1914), 12th(1915), 12th(1916), 12th(1919), 15th(1917)
You can see Harris clearly has the peak advantage w/Oatman sustaining that depth scoring ability longer. These 2 should come in very close to another another. I'm sure Dreak will correct me if this is off by more than a few points either way.
Arizona's 3rd Line = 177.9 - 147 ES
Pittsburgh's Top 9 = 266.2 + 231.3 + 232.3
= 729.8 overall - 505 ES VsX
Arizona's Top 9 = 172.9 (3rd line) + 523.8 (Top 6) =
701.7 VsX7 - 503 ES VsX
Overview:
Pittsburgh bridges the offensive gap with a very strong 3rd line, pulling ahead in overall VsX and getting even at ES.
Factoring in Orr:
Pittsburgh Top Line + Orr = 381.0 VsX7 - 244 ES VsX
(Orr is 114.8 VsX7 and 64 ES VsX)
Arizona Top Line + Clapper = 327.8 VsX 7 - 225 ES VsX
(51.0 for Clapper x .20 for estimated ES VsX)
**I’m not giving Clapper a 73.7 as he is shown to have in the VsX study because that includes his many years at RW where he was a 2 time AS and had scoring finishes there of 3rd and 8th overall in the league. He finished 2, 3, 8, 10 in goals scored.
He’d have to play an all out kamikaze style to get near that mark from D and playing next to Goodfellow, that’s not a great strategy, as you’re robbing him of his best attribute and that’s offense from the back.
So I compared him to Seibert directly and looked at the time their D careers overlapped 1937-38 and 1944-45
Seibert’s VsX (per the yearly benchmarks) = 45.8
Seibert = 181 in 366 = 0.49 PPG
Clapper = 187 in 346 = 0.54 PPG
51.0 seems like the correct score considering they posted almost identical point totals over the same time period. I gave Clapper a 5% boost from Clapper’s 45.8.
This illustrates, extremely well why Pittsburgh doesn’t have near the issues at producing offense among F’s and furthermore explodes past Arizona once you factor Orr into the equation.
Pittsburgh's 2nd Line + Orr = 346.1 VsX7 - 218 ES VsX
Arizona's 2nd Line + Ckapper = 298.0 VsX7 - 213 ES VsX
Pittsburgh 3rd Line + Orr = 347.1 VsX7 - 235 ES VsX
Arizona's 3rd Line = 228.9 VsX7 - 147 ES VsX
Overview:
I shouldn't need to illustrate very much how much Orr impacts and tilts the ice.
Pitt pulls well ahead on the 1st and 2nd lines w/Orr factored in and they demolish Arizona head head on the 3rd line.
And skating with Stevens, he is in prime position to play a major and maximum offensive output role.
Looking At Rest Of Top 4 Dmen Offensively:
Ebbie Goodfellow:
*51.0 VsX 7 estimate (his PPG is 4% better than Seibert and Seibert has an official score of 45.8)
35-36 through 42-43 (time spent as D)
131 points in 284 games = 0.46
Goodfellow is a very slightly better offensive player from the blueline. So again, if you’re giving 4-5 points above Seiberts official score of 45.8,
you’re at 50/51 relative VsX for EG.
Scott Stevens:
Has an official 52.4 VsX 7
Now of course that includes his years from Washington when he was actually a good puck mover and point producer so his playing style here would obviously bring that number down somewhat.
With that being said, Goodfellow is almost surely seeing a drop from 50/51 as he’s not going to be the primary puck mover from the back end. Certainly not in any consistent manner. And Stevens is next to Orr so that alone is boosting his potential output. So as I've said forever, context is everywhere.
Either way you can clearly see, while Goodfellow and Clapper is actually a passable top pairing, being slanted to the offensive, it still trails Stevens-Orr by a mile offensively speaking.
And nobody would take Goodfellow/Clapper defensively over Stevens-Orr either.
Ken Reardon:
29.6 VsX 7 is his official score using yearly benchmark
Played 2 years 41-42 and 42-43, scoring 25 points in 87 games – 0.29
Missed 3 full years to WWII
Played 5 years 45-46 through 49-50, scoring 98 points in 266 games – 0.36
Career is 122 in 355 = 0.35 PPG
Reardon’s offense is solid but nothing special. The 1940’s were an incredibly weak era for the blueline and he took advantage of playing with Richard, Blake, Lach, among others. He entered the league when all the top stars from the 30’s were either gone or winding down and left right as the Kelly’s/Harvey’s of the world started dominating.
Given his penchant for penalties and playing an aggressive, rambunctious style, will likely take him out of position much more than a player like Laperriere. Against Pittsburgh, getting caught up ice/out of position is a big no-no.
Look at his bio from 2010. No mentions of skating, other than Reardon saying about himself “I couldn’t skate”.
So he liked to skate through people rather than around them (harkens to the not being a very good skater comment).
Here are a couple of quotes I pulled from his singular bio. Good luck trying to skate through Scott Stevens, Seibert, Lapperriere. Or any number of Pittsburgh F’s.
“He would barge down the ice in the most direct line to either the opponent's net or his check, and he loved the body-contact game….It was all in a time when hockey was extremely rough and tough, and no player was tougher than him.” – Greatest Hockey Legends
Even when he was carrying the puck, he posed a threat to his opponents, frequently preferring to skate through them than around them when leading rushes out of the Montreal end.” ourhistory.canadiens.com
He strikes me as a rambunctious and aggressive player who isn’t going to play a consistently strong positional game.
Jack Crawford:
28.1 VsX 7 is official using yearly benchmarks
178 points in 547 regular season games = 0.32 PPG
He’s talked about as a “husky, clean playing rearguard, capable of making a big hit”. I don’t see any mentions of his skating or really any specific traits, certainly not a bulk collection of data.
His 2nd team AS nod came during the first war depleted year (43) and the 1st team AS nod in 46 is weaker than any other era due to lack of quality Dmen in the NHL in 1946 (best players were Jack Stewart, Butch Bouhard and Ken Reardon. None of which are top 30 Dmen all time and it being the first year post WWII.
His already subpar offense is helped by playing through the entirety of WWII so he’s one of the players who certainly took advantage of a weak league and you see a bump in scoring output.
I think him a perfectly fine #4 in a smaller draft like this but combined with Ken Reardon am not exactly sure how well they’re going to handle Pittsburgh’s incredible skating ability on the flanks and top shelf forecheckers (Bucyk, Anderson, Crawford, Metz, Poulin) and to a lesser degree Cook/Lemaire.
This pairing won’t be able to skate out of danger consistently against a team like Pittsburgh and their offensive prowess overall is rather weak.
Jacques Laperriere:
34.6 VsX7 is offical score using yearly benchmarks
282 points in 692 games = 0.41 PPG
Earl Seibert:
45.8 VsX7 is official score using yearly benchmarks
276 point in 657 games = 0.42 PPG
Overview:
Arizona isn't bridging the offensive gap among the rest of the top 4.
Putting Notion of Overrated VsX to Rest:
1. "Bucyk's score is overrated"
Funny considering TDMM’s “fudge” for example is literally based on Orr being present, which he is here. Present. I've already expanded on this so that alone should remove this tag, but let's go further.
2. “Malone’s not as good as Espo”
Sure, no question.
But considering a line contains 3 players, Martinec is at least 200 spots better than Hodge/Mackenzie who were the RW's of note on Boston during late 60's/early 70s. I think that gap is quite a bit bigger than the 45 odd spots between Espo and Malone. Plus Malone is one of handful of #1 C’s who plays a lot like Esposito offensively.
And you have 2 defensive pairs that are so far above the bar, supporting from the back end all game.
Look, I get it. Gamesmanship is part of this thing. Bucyk is generally an easy guy to target. But trying to literally use that same routine when I reunited him with Orr, and collectively (C+RW) upgraded the talent he skated with often at ES is just not correct.
3. "Bun Cook's score is overrated"
Sure, I absolutely agree that in this setting, his score is overrated. I’m pretty sure I never argued that in the first place but again, his presence fits Lemaire and Cournoyer very well as mentioned by numerous GM's in the assassination thread, as the glue guy/intangible/grinder type.
You have to respect the skating ability of that line or don’t at your own peril. Plus the chemistry between Lemaire and Cournoyer is very strong and cannot be denied.
And again, you cannot forget to apply Orr for a good number of their shifts.
Bobby Orr, for all intents and purposes is the best offensive player in this series. He’s the best player in this series. (ever in my book).
This is why Orr is so valuable. His offensive value can inject any line. Any line instantly becomes a threat when he’s on the ice.
So again, while I don’t have 195 VsX points and top 50 players all time on the 2nd line, Cook is still quite comfortably the #3 dog on the unit.
I’m not asking him to do anything more than he did in real life. Win battles with your skating, high end defensive/PK play and good physicality. Chip in offensively.
4. Glenn Anderson?
Makes absolutely no sense to come after him. Even
@tabness who stated earlier this year he’s not all that concerned with the debate/playoff portion of the draft, spoke up regarding Bucyk as well as Anderson being in strong situations relative to real life.
Anderson played a lot with Messier, far more than any other C no?
Messier is 89.6 over 7 years.
Hawerchuk is 86 over 7 years.
And before people get in an uproar, that
DOES NOT mean Hawerhuk is close to Messier in an all time sense. It’s a wide gap.
But offensively? How much of a gap really exists?
Look at who Messier played with and compare that to Hawerchuk.
Look at the two with your eyes. Video exists if you weren’t alive to see these guys in their primes. Hawerchuk was an incredible offensive player, stuck on really shitty teams. Is it really hard to imagine what he’d have done on a 2nd line behind Gretzky and loads of PP time on a top unit there?
You want context, there you go haha.
Glenn Anderson can play the role that he did in real life. Relentless energy, elite skating, elite forechecking, good goal scorer, solid backchecking, super pest, and extremely strong playoff performer. He's exactly the type of player who wins you hockey games in a depth role as he did it time and again over his career.
