Value of: JG Pageau @ the NHL Draft

[Strait2thecup]

Cool. But are you gonna want to pay them a combined $11.5 million for the next 4 years? Their deals each take them until they are 34 years old and they both have NTC's. Not pretty.

nope, see what you’re doing here is deflecting. You said they aren’t looking too hot when there’s literally nothing indicative of that being accurate. Quite the opposite actually.

Now you’re just making an entirely different point in defense.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

EDM raises it to Athanasiou 1:1

Lol not a chance

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Lmao, what?

Well, the hockey world laughed its collective a$$ off when Dubas had to give Carolina a first in order to rid the Leafs of Marleau.

A situation the Islanders - and well, most other teams - haven't had to deal with in that manner.

And if we see a situation where the cap remains the same and the league doesn't afford every team a compliance buyout, then things are going to get a heck of a lot hotter in places like Toronto and Tampa than they will on Long Island.

Once you pay Barzal you'll be spending more on your forwards than we are, and Barzal is the only one who'd even make our top-6. None of our "bad" contracts have NTCs. We don't have a single contract we'd have to pay someone to get rid of, our first options to trim the fat would bring back positive assets.

That's a lot of self-assurance coming from a person who's team is the only one in the NHL with three players whose salaries eat up over 33 million of its cap. Maybe Leafs fans are just negative towards Lamoriello? Or sour that the Isles have managed to be better without Tavares than with him?

But in sticking with what you just wrote, it looks like you think the Islanders will have to be paying Barzal the same money a Marner or Matthews is getting? If so, I believe you're in for a BIG surprise.

And what you're saying about being able to trim fat and bring back positive assets may be true to an extent, especially when it comes to moving guys like Nylander, Kapanen, and Johnsson (any one of which may have to go at some point in the near future), the Islanders can say the exact same thing about comparably-to-lower-priced players like Bailey, Cizikas, Beauvillier, Toews, and Mayfield. It's not a mutually-exclusive option that Toronto has.

But hey, I'd love to see Dubas try and find a taker for a Tavares or Marner, if push comes to shove!

The Islanders situation is unquestionably worse and will cost more to fix.

Re-signing RFA Marner was a financial task Dubas had to come up with a solution for. He couldn't keep what Toronto had AND re-sign Marner. Ultimately, it meant no less than dishing off a first rounder to get rid of Marleau, finding a way to get Kadri out of town, then ponying up to the tune of an 11 MM x 6 noose to satisfy Mitch's crew.

You're now saying the Islanders, who have no such existing financial squeeze, unquestionably have a worse situation, which they're going to have to pay more to fix?

Next...

 

[CatchyTune]

nope, see what you’re doing here is deflecting. You said they aren’t looking too hot when there’s literally nothing indicative of that being accurate. Quite the opposite actually.

Now you’re just making an entirely different point in defense.

No, i'm staying right where I started. I'm not talking about them as players today. I'm talking about their contracts as a whole.

In the early years of their deals, like right now, they should be producing like this. In the later years, they should decline. That was the whole point, the entire time. No "deflecting" going on.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Well, the hockey world laughed its collective a$$ off when Dubas had to give Carolina a first in order to rid the Leafs of Marleau.

A situation the Islanders - and well, most other teams - haven't had to deal with in that manner.

And if we see a situation where the cap remains the same and the league doesn't afford every team a compliance buyout, then things are going to get a heck of a lot hotter in places like Toronto and Tampa than they will on Long Island.



That's a lot of self-assurance coming from a person who's team is the only one in the NHL with three players whose salaries eat up over 33 million of its cap. Maybe Leafs fans are just negative towards Lamoriello? Or sour that the Isles have managed to be better without Tavares than with him?

But in sticking with what you just wrote, it looks like you think the Islanders will have to be paying Barzal the same money a Marner or Matthews is getting? If so, I believe you're in for a BIG surprise.

And what you're saying about being able to trim fat and bring back positive assets may be true to an extent, especially when it comes to moving guys like Nylander, Kapanen, and Johnsson (any one of which may have to go at some point in the near future), the Islanders can say the exact same thing about comparably-to-lower-priced players like Bailey, Cizikas, Beauvillier, Toews, and Mayfield. It's not a mutually-exclusive option that Toronto has.

But hey, I'd love to see Dubas try and find a taker for a Tavares or Marner, if push comes to shove!



Re-signing RFA Marner was a financial task Dubas had to come up with a solution for. He couldn't keep what Toronto had AND re-sign Marner. Ultimately, it meant no less than dishing off a first rounder to get rid of Marleau, finding a way to get Kadri out of town, then ponying up to the tune of an 11 MM x 6 noose to satisfy Mitch's crew.

You're now saying the Islanders, who have no such existing financial squeeze, unquestionably have a worse situation, which they're going to have to pay more to fix?

Next...

The GM that signed the Marleau abomination is running your team, and it looks like he's continuing to do what he always does: waste picks on declining assets, bring no picks back, and sign mediocre grinders to bloated deals with trade protection.

If Barzal gets 8 million or more, the Islanders will have a more expensive forward group than the Leafs. That's also assuming Lou doesn't sign another 38 year old grinder, which he probably will.

If your answer is to ship out your young core so you can keep Ladd and Komarov, I won't argue, that sounds like a really good idea. If only the Leafs traded a 94 point 21 year old so they could have kept Marleau!

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Those are some gross contracts for Lee and Nelson.

Nelson's a 50-60 pt second line center signed for 5 more seasons. Don't know how that's a gross contract at all.

The Lee contract I'm not a fan of. At least the guy is known as being Chara-like in his workout regimens so I don't see a fall off being that dramatic.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Lmao, what?

Once you pay Barzal you'll be spending more on your forwards than we are, and Barzal is the only one who'd even make our top-6. None of our "bad" contracts have NTCs. We don't have a single contract we'd have to pay someone to get rid of, our first options to trim the fat would bring back positive assets. The Islanders situation is unquestionably worse and will cost more to fix.

Thank god our D isn't like yours. Ick!

 

[CatchyTune]

Nelson's a 50-60 pt second line center signed for 5 more seasons. Don't know how that's a gross contract at all.

The Lee contract I'm not a fan of. At least the guy is known as being Chara-like in his workout regimens so I don't see a fall off being that dramatic.

Nelsons is the better one out of all the deals, but I wouldnt say its a good deal. He is productive right now, but is signed for 5 more years and has a 16 team NTC at the very least all 5 years. Maybe he can prove me wrong and stay on course production wise, but I have my doubts as he is signed until he is 33.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Nelsons is the better one out of all the deals, but I wouldnt say its a good deal. He is productive right now, but is signed for 5 more years and has a 16 team NTC at the very least all 5 years. Maybe he can prove me wrong and stay on course production wise, but I have my doubts as he is signed until he is 33.

Can understand the concern. I would imagine you have the same with Tavares, who's a year older and also signed for as long as Nelson.

 

[Seph]

Cool. But are you gonna want to pay them a combined $11.5 million for the next 4 years? Their deals each take them until they are 34 years old and they both have NTC's. Not pretty.

After the 20-21 season the NTCs for both become 16 team no trade lists, so they likely can be traded if they maintain production next season.

 

[CatchyTune]

Can understand the concern. I would imagine you have the same with Tavares, who's a year older and also signed for as long as Nelson.

Its unlikely Tavares will produce at the same rate as he is today, as all players decline. But im much less concerned with an elite player like Tavares rather than a player like Jordan Eberle or JG Pageau.

 

[CatchyTune]

After the 20-21 season the NTCs for both become 16 team no trade lists, so they likely can be traded if they maintain production next season.

If there is a market for aging 2nd line players in a world where the cap stays flat, within those teams, that is. Maybe the Seattle expansion opens some possibilities.

 

[Anthony5967]

A lot of hate in here lol.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

But are you confident they are gonna be top 6 players for the next 4-5 years until they are 34? They are 28 and 30 right now, and will surely decline.

You know who else signed as a top 6 player at the age of 30? Andrew Ladd. Look how that worked out.

Yes.

Welp, better not sign anyone past thirty then. In the world of zero correlation, Leafs signed Muzzin to a four year deal at 30, know who else did? Jeff Finger. Better watch out!!! :0

 

[CatchyTune]

Yes.

Welp, better not sign anyone past thirty then. In the world of zero correlation, Leafs signed Muzzin to a four year deal at 30, know who else did? Jeff Finger. Better watch out!!! :0

Nothing wrong with signing players past 30. Most of those deals arent bad individually, its just that when you have 5-6 on 1 team, like you do, they add up and cause for a poor cap structure.

 

[OmniSens]

He's stuck on the island unless he plays out of his mind. Overpaid, happy Ottawa didn't get stuck with that contract.

But in reality, don't see why he'd get traded after just signing a 6 year contract.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Given the Isles situation, if I am the a Habs I offer to take Leddy of their hands for a sweetener like the Isles 2nd round pick. Cap space will cost a premium this offseason.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

But in reality, don't see why he'd get traded after just signing a 6 year contract.

The premise is that, whatever cap projections the Islanders were working with when deciding to sign that contract aren't the same as the 81.5M flat cap that they are going to have to sign Pulock/Barzal and fill up their roster under.

They have very few contracts they can actually move. Bailey, Pageau, and Leddy are the only players who may not be unmoveable, and don't have NTCs. Pageau has a NTC that kicks in once the 2020-21 off season begins, so if they are going to trade him, it has to be done before that.

 

[CatchyTune]

Thank god our D isn't like yours. Ick!

Thank God our forwards arent like yours. Ick!

Can go both ways. Kinda sad you had to go straight to attempting to insult instead of actually arguing with him.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Thank God our forwards arent like yours. Ick!

Can go both ways. Kinda sad you had to go straight to attempting to insult instead of actually arguing with him.

Whats to argue? Our offense is inept and Toronto’s defense is inept. That has been discussed ad nauseum since the beginning of 2018-2019.

I can play though. There’s Reilly, Muzzin and then some hope in Sandin (who does look really good) and Lillegren (who’s looked meh).

I forgot about Justin Holl...and also last years analytic darling Dermott, who Leafs fans seem to want to get rid of

 

[CatchyTune]

Whats to argue? Our offense is inept and Toronto’s defense is inept. That has been discussed ad nauseum since the beginning of 2018-2019.

I can play though. There’s Reilly, Muzzin and then some hope in Sandin (who does look really good) and Lillegren (who’s looked meh).

I forgot about Justin Holl...and also last years analytic darling Dermott, who Leafs fans seem to want to get rid of

No, I mean the post you originally quoted.

I'm not arguing about our defence in a value of JG Pageau thread.

 

[Samsquanch]

I love Pageau and would have welcomed the Sens resigning him long term - but not a dollar above 4m/year.

Im still kinda shocked that he not only returned what he did at the TDL, but that he also got that contract. Both the term and the cap hit are okay on their own, but horrible when paired up together.

If you ever wanted to show someone a text book case of buyer beware (in terms of sudden bursts of offensive outputs), this would be a great one.

Not only was he playing first line minutes and on the PP on what was the weakest team at C in the league, but his shooting percentage was unsustainably high. Obviously.

Oh and it was a contract year - a contract that depending on how it went, it could have been the difference between him setting up his kids for life, and maybe now even the grandkids as well.

Realistically, Pager could have been hard pressed to get another NHL contract (beyond a 1 year deal anyways) if he was still playing anything like he had the previous two seasons (not good).

If thats not incentive to play the hardest and most inspired hockey of your life, than I dont know what is.

 

[FameFlame069]

EDM raises it to Athanasiou 1:1

I give, i give lol

 

[Hostile Offer]

yeah after 2g and a -6 through 7 games (didnt the isles lose almost everyy one of them?) dont see the guy having too much value.


6 x 5mil for a 3rd liner with a career high 43pts is pretty yikes

You don't judge a player based on his first seven games on a new team. Either way I think the Isles would search multiple other ways for cap relief before considering moving Pageau. Ladd is hard to move but he's the obvious one, I think Leddy is the one they end up moving.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I love Pageau and would have welcomed the Sens resigning him long term - but not a dollar above 4m/year.

Im still kinda shocked that he not only returned what he did at the TDL, but that he also got that contract. Both the term and the cap hit are okay on their own, but horrible when paired up together.

If you ever wanted to show someone a text book case of buyer beware (in terms of sudden bursts of offensive outputs), this would be a great one.

Not only was he playing first line minutes and on the PP on what was the weakest team at C in the league, but his shooting percentage was unsustainably high. Obviously.

Oh and it was a contract year - a contract that depending on how it went, it could have been the difference between him setting up his kids for life, and maybe now even the grandkids as well.

Realistically, Pager could have been hard pressed to get another NHL contract (beyond a 1 year deal anyways) if he was still playing anything like he had the previous two seasons (not good).

If thats not incentive to play the hardest and most inspired hockey of your life, than I dont know what is.

Islander fans better hope that Lamoriello's assessment of Pageau's value to what they're building on Long Island is more "valuable" than the picture of Pageau painted here. Many were not ecstatic about the deal and also asked if that kind of dough had to be dished out for him, even though the immediate re-signing was seen as a positive thing in light of his cost.

One thing everyone needs to understand when it comes to the Islanders is that they basically CANNOT compete for top UFA talent on the free market. Even when they make the biggest offer out there (see Panarin), they can't beat out other teams when it comes to getting highly sought after big-name players. And it's been that way for QUITE some time.

If you look at some of the contracts on the team and think "This guy is kind of overpaid", don't forget what situation they're in as an unpopular NHL destination, constantly overshadowed by one of the league's most wanted destinations.

For Islander fans, it was basically a mind-boggling achievement that Lamoriello was able to go after Panarin last summer while still managing to keep UFAs Nelson, Eberle, and Lee in the fold.