Speculation: Jets interested in O'Reilly? UPDATE: CGY Offer sheet COL matches

[pegcity]

-- The Jets continue to be linked to trade rumours involving holdout Colorado Avalanche centre Ryan O'Reilly, who is reportedly seeking a five-year deal worth $4.5 million per season. Question: How much, if at all, does the rantings of O'Reilly's dad -- Brian, who is a life coach and has been very vocal during his son's divorce from the Avs -- influence any trade talks?
O'Reilly put up 55 points last year, is just 22 and finished fourth in voting for the Selke Trophy. He'd look great in Jets colours, but at what cost to the current roster and financially?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sp...s-ruff-wont-be-unemployed-long-192213301.html


Apologies if this has been mentioned on here.
Ed Tait is usually a good source.

If it's true, I don't get this deal. We would have to give up something big in return and I don't know what that would be.

Click to read more...

 

[Guerzy]

O'Reilly is seeking 4.5 million for 5 years? Well, to be honest that changes my dislike for him a bit. That's fair I think. If he was our guy I wouldn't mind Chevy paying him that. Should he suck it up and play for the 3.5 million per year over 2 years? Hell ya, in my opinion... but... hey if we can grab him I'd still gladly pay him 4.5 over 5 years.

I figured he was asking 5.5-6 million on a long-term 6+ year deal.


Honestly, if I were Chevy I would go hard at this guy. Could very well and in my opinion will be a 'Mike Richards' kind of guy. Question is, would the Avs trade him to a team that is moving to the same Conference? who knows.

Burmistrov + Postma? we have some extra quality picks as well ... starting point... who knows. Colorado may also want a guy like Little. I think there would be some interest here in what we could offer. If Ed Tait is talking about this, then it may have some legs.

A move like this, in my opinion, would be pretty big in Chevy putting his stamp on the team, and we need a real good center. And while putting some of this contract drama aside, Ryan O'Reilly is 100% a Chevy kind of player. And for me, O'Reilly is a Mike Richards in the making, and Mike Richards is one of my most favorite forwards in the entire league. I'd be pretty ecstatic if we landed Ryan O'Reilly for these reasons.

Edit: And ya, O'Reilly's Dad needs to keep his yap shut. No need for that crap.

 

[Inflict]

I would give up Burmi for him, though Colorado may ask for more.

Little and two 3rd round picks might work as well. A slight overpayment IMO, but even then, Colorado may still want more.

 

[KingBogo]

In theory a trade for ROR sounds good, but does anyone have a good handle on what the Avalanche needs are?

 

[Guerzy]

In theory a trade for ROR sounds good, but does anyone have a good handle on what the Avalanche needs are?

Looking at their roster I'd say they could use an offensive defenseman. Rumor had it they were talking to the Rangers re; Del Zotto, but I don't think the Rangers want to give up Del Zotto.

That info was said on TSN or Sportsnet the other day.

 

[KingBogo]

Looking at their roster I'd say they could use an offensive defenseman. Rumor had it they were talking to the Rangers re; Del Zotto, but I don't think the Rangers want to give up Del Zotto.

That info was said on TSN or Sportsnet the other day.

Well we happen to have a bit of a surplus there (when healthy), but the only one likely thrown out as bait would be Postma and we would need to add significantly to that.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

O'Reilly is seeking 4.5 million for 5 years? Well, to be honest that changes my dislike for him a bit. That's fair I think. If he was our guy I wouldn't mind Chevy paying him that. Should he suck it up and play for the 3.5 million per year over 2 years? Hell ya, in my opinion... but... hey if we can grab him I'd still gladly pay him 4.5 over 5 years.

I figured he was asking 5.5-6 million on a long-term 6+ year deal.

The article says he wants 4.5 million per. No thanks if that's true.

 

[Guerzy]

The article says he wants 4.5 million per. No thanks if that's true.

It may be a shade high, but in all honesty, for me anyway, if he was our guy, I'd probably be ok with paying him that. There is some risk, obviously. Is he a 30-40 point guy, or is he a 50-60 point guy? I haven't watched him, so I honestly don't know.

If he is indeed a 50-60 point guy, and a potential Selke winner and candidate (finished 4th in votes last season) then by all means he is worth the 4.5, in my opinion.

By all accounts he appears to be a Mike Richards type of player, and I love Mike Richards, so I'd be all over this if rumors are true of Chevy being involved.

From what I have read, from some Avs fans too, is that O'Reilly may not be worth 4.5 YET, mostly because he's had that one good season. If he were to repeat that season this season (pro-rated, obviously) or even next season, he'd be worth it, and perhaps more in the coming years.

It's a risk to lock him up for 5 years *if* last season is the exception rather than the rule. So I can certainly see why Colorado, their fans, etc.. want to see more. I think MANY teams would gladly lock O'Reilly up right now for 4.5 over 5 years. But Colorado has a system, they've done it with Duchene, and now they're trying to do it with O'Reilly.

 

[tacogeoff]

O'Reilly is seeking 4.5 million for 5 years? Well, to be honest that changes my dislike for him a bit. That's fair I think. If he was our guy I wouldn't mind Chevy paying him that. Should he suck it up and play for the 3.5 million per year over 2 years? Hell ya, in my opinion... but... hey if we can grab him I'd still gladly pay him 4.5 over 5 years.

I figured he was asking 5.5-6 million on a long-term 6+ year deal.


Honestly, if I were Chevy I would go hard at this guy. Could very well and in my opinion will be a 'Mike Richards' kind of guy. Question is, would the Avs trade him to a team that is moving to the same Conference? who knows.

Burmistrov + Postma? we have some extra quality picks as well ... starting point... who knows. Colorado may also want a guy like Little. I think there would be some interest here in what we could offer. If Ed Tait is talking about this, then it may have some legs.

A move like this, in my opinion, would be pretty big in Chevy putting his stamp on the team, and we need a real good center. And while putting some of this contract drama aside, Ryan O'Reilly is 100% a Chevy kind of player. And for me, O'Reilly is a Mike Richards in the making, and Mike Richards is one of my most favorite forwards in the entire league. I'd be pretty ecstatic if we landed Ryan O'Reilly for these reasons.

Edit: And ya, O'Reilly's Dad needs to keep his yap shut. No need for that crap.

I wouldnt be too bummed if we acquired O'Reilly at all. He would be a top six forward and has shown steady and good progression through his first three NHL seasons. He even did very well in the KHL as well. Guess it all depends what Colorado would want in return for him. I think he would fit in nicely with our team. Our management has shown it will gamble so I think O'Reilly would be a good gamble for a long term player.

Has Garrett done any advanced stats for him ?

 

[sipowicz]

I would give up Burmi for him, though Colorado may ask for more.

Little and two 3rd round picks might work as well. A slight overpayment IMO, but even then, Colorado may still want more.

You really think Colorado would take a guy who can't score (Burmi) for a guy who can, they are only a year apart in age.

Little, and a pick might work though.

The Jets are currently over paying two forwards $4.5 million each who don't do anything so paying $4.5M for a guy that can score might work.

 

[cheswick]

Colorado is asking for too much in return. Kipper said it best, Col doesn't want to pay him like he's a number one centre but want to trade him like he's one. His speculation was since they're asking so much a team with a likely low first round pick is better off giving him an offer sheet.

An offer of less than $5 million would be a 1st and a 3rd in compensation. A match by Colorado and they couldn't trade him for the season. (An offer between 5 and 6.7 would cost a 1st, 2nd and 3rd

 

[Huffer]

O'Reilly is seeking 4.5 million for 5 years? Well, to be honest that changes my dislike for him a bit. That's fair I think. If he was our guy I wouldn't mind Chevy paying him that. Should he suck it up and play for the 3.5 million per year over 2 years? Hell ya, in my opinion... but... hey if we can grab him I'd still gladly pay him 4.5 over 5 years.

I figured he was asking 5.5-6 million on a long-term 6+ year deal.

The money thing is an interesting situation. ROR had a good season last year for sure, but he is just coming off of his ELC and getting his second contract.

The owners fought to keep the second contract restrictions because they feel that it is very important to them. Plus, we have seen guys fresh off of their ELC's take those bridge deals (Duchene, Subban, etc). I don't really fault the Avs at all in their desire to want ROR to prove more before giving him the big money. That's why the owners value the 2nd contract. If they just gave him max dollars now, what's the point on all the restrictions on the 2nd contract? Also, what does that say to Duchene? And, what happens then when other guys come off their ELC's like Landeskog? Are they going to skip the 2nd deal entirely and get max dollars? Doesn't seem fair to the owners.

On the flipside, I can see some of ROR's thinking as well. He could say, "sure, I'll sign the bridge contract, but then you can't throw me down on the 3rd line and ask me to be your checking centre while Stastny and Duchene get all the points. That's not going to help me get big money when my bridge deal is done."


As far as tradeing for him, Bob E made a good post in the Draft thread about how trading for ROR also frees up the Jets in terms of the draft. Sure we don't have to draft for need and drafting BPA is best, but having ROR and Scheifele in the mix (and probably one of Little or Burmistrov if one is traded for ROR), means that reaching for a C isn't nearly as important as it might have been.

If the pieces were some combination of Little / Burmi + Postma it would probably be good for us. Any more than that and I would think it would be getting close to overpayment. Unless ROR becomes what some Avs fans think he can be and that is a #1C. It's a little worrisome though considering he's never scored more than 19 goals in a season since he was 16.

 

[Huffer]

You really think Colorado would take a guy who can't score (Burmi) for a guy who can, they are only a year apart in age.

No offense, but you really need to look deeper into both of these guys first few seasons in the league, their useage (PP time), and their linemates before saying something like that.

Both have similar progressions, and ROR benefited from increased PP time as well as better linemates (Lando and Hejduk) last year.

It's not so straight forward as saying Burmi suxors and ROR roxors that you indicate.

 

[Yukon Joe]

The money thing is an interesting situation. ROR had a good season last year for sure, but he is just coming off of his ELC and getting his second contract.

The owners fought to keep the second contract restrictions because they feel that it is very important to them. Plus, we have seen guys fresh off of their ELC's take those bridge deals (Duchene, Subban, etc). I don't really fault the Avs at all in their desire to want ROR to prove more before giving him the big money. That's why the owners value the 2nd contract. If they just gave him max dollars now, what's the point on all the restrictions on the 2nd contract? Also, what does that say to Duchene? And, what happens then when other guys come off their ELC's like Landeskog? Are they going to skip the 2nd deal entirely and get max dollars? Doesn't seem fair to the owners.

Of course the Jets have shown themselves willing to go out and pay big money after a ELC as long as it buys them some UFA years.

 

[Shakey Rustie]

The problem with this is that Colorado is refusing to pay him as a #1/#2 Centre, and yet are trying to trade him like he was in fact a #1/#2 Centre.

 

[King Woodballs]

why trade assests when you could offer sheet him what he wants and just give up the picks (if he signs it that is)

colorado wants a high pick with players, why not just give up the picks

 

[cheswick]

why trade assests when you could offer sheet him what he wants and just give up the picks (if he signs it that is)

colorado wants a high pick with players, why not just give up the picks

Giving him an offer sheet won't guarantee you get him since the Avs can match. Sure they don't want to give him $4.5 million a year but they might decide that giving him that is better than losing him for a 1st and a 3rd.

 

[Guerzy]

The money thing is an interesting situation. ROR had a good season last year for sure, but he is just coming off of his ELC and getting his second contract.

The owners fought to keep the second contract restrictions because they feel that it is very important to them. Plus, we have seen guys fresh off of their ELC's take those bridge deals (Duchene, Subban, etc). I don't really fault the Avs at all in their desire to want ROR to prove more before giving him the big money. That's why the owners value the 2nd contract. If they just gave him max dollars now, what's the point on all the restrictions on the 2nd contract? Also, what does that say to Duchene? And, what happens then when other guys come off their ELC's like Landeskog? Are they going to skip the 2nd deal entirely and get max dollars? Doesn't seem fair to the owners.

On the flipside, I can see some of ROR's thinking as well. He could say, "sure, I'll sign the bridge contract, but then you can't throw me down on the 3rd line and ask me to be your checking centre while Stastny and Duchene get all the points. That's not going to help me get big money when my bridge deal is done."


As far as tradeing for him, Bob E made a good post in the Draft thread about how trading for ROR also frees up the Jets in terms of the draft. Sure we don't have to draft for need and drafting BPA is best, but having ROR and Scheifele in the mix (and probably one of Little or Burmistrov if one is traded for ROR), means that reaching for a C isn't nearly as important as it might have been.

If the pieces were some combination of Little / Burmi + Postma it would probably be good for us. Any more than that and I would think it would be getting close to overpayment. Unless ROR becomes what some Avs fans think he can be and that is a #1C. It's a little worrisome though considering he's never scored more than 19 goals in a season since he was 16.

Nice evaluation here. Agree on all points.

 

[Huffer]

Of course the Jets have shown themselves willing to go out and pay big money after a ELC as long as it buys them some UFA years.

That's true as well. If the rumors are true and a 5 year deal was offered, that would cover 1 UFA year.

Looks like the Avs really want to get their 2nd contract price, and in some ways I can see their point as well.

 

[Warhead77]

Unsure about ROR. His recent numbers are not very impressive IMO.

 

[Guerzy]

The problem with this is that Colorado is refusing to pay him as a #1/#2 Centre, and yet are trying to trade him like he was in fact a #1/#2 Centre.

This is a pretty legitimate point, as Huffer pointed out too. There is a lot of contradiction here by Colorado. So you won't pay him like he's a top center, but here you are demanding trade pieces as if he is one. Pick your stance, because both don't quite line up.

With that being said, and as Huffer perfectly described, the Avs very well may believe he is a top center, but are trying to keep these 2nd contracts in line and structured for the better of their organization, and I can't blame them either. But the reality is, is I bet 3/4 of the NHL's teams, or close to it, would pay O'Reilly 4.5 over 5 years even if he is coming off his ELC. Colorado may shoot themselves in the foot more often than not trying to do it this way.

Evander Kane did score 30 goals, and he hit 57 points last season. He has some flaws. Granted he played 74 games and not 81 like O'Reilly, but the overall numbers are close.

Ryan O'Reilly score 55 points, and finished 4th in Selke votes, that's pretty impressive. And he is a heart and soul player, much like Mike Richards, and that can go a long way.

Kane got locked up, but does indeed come with some risk. O'Reilly, perhaps a bit more risk in his overall production, but I gotta say, if I could sit here and say O'Reilly may not be worth 4.5 YET but he will be, which I have read, then I would just lock him up.

I don't understand why both parties don't do a deal that's 5 years, and escalate the contract like we did with Kane. Seems odd that they couldn't make those numbers work over the long-term of a 5 year deal.

 

[King Woodballs]

Giving him an offer sheet won't guarantee you get him since the Avs can match. Sure they don't want to give him $4.5 million a year but they might decide that giving him that is better than losing him for a 1st and a 3rd.

I know it is no guarantee
All I am saying is I would rather give up a 1st and 3rd then a 1st a roster player and a high end prospect.

 

[Snot Rocket]

Never paid much attention to this kid...guess I have some tape to start watching.

So far looking at the numbers, I would not trade away Little or Burmi just yet.
Here is my reasoning.

Little is 25, last year his numbers were alright, but he was snake bit at the start of the season. Sure 08-09 he put up better numbers, then there were the 2 years in between...However, we have a known stable commodity.

Burmi just turned 21 a few months back and is developing in the NHL. He has played a solid 200ft game this year, and works his rear off out on the ice.
Most guys get to be seasoned a down on the farm, Burmi was put in before he was ready. I believe the points will come for this kid yet and I think he will have his breakout year next season as we have seen a solid steady progression.

ROR - 22 years old, the similar numbers year by year as Burmi, though with one more season under his belt. Comes with crazy father who seems to like to poke his nose into the media and make outlandish comments, and sometimes the apple does not fall very far from the tree. We already have requisite media circus attractions with some of our players; do we need more of that?

Postma - Developing nicely too...

Just not seeing enough upside, maybe that will change after some tape reviews.
I know Garrett (SP?) loves his advanced numbers; perhaps he has the tale of the comparative season by season tape on Little, Burmi and ROR .

 

[ps241]

This is a pretty legitimate point, as Huffer pointed out too. There is a lot of contradiction here by Colorado. So you won't pay him like he's a top center, but here you are demanding trade pieces as if he is one. Pick your stance, because both don't quite line up.

With that being said, and as Huffer perfectly described, the Avs very well may believe he is a top center, but are trying to keep these 2nd contracts in line and structured for the better of their organization, and I can't blame them either. But the reality is, is I bet 3/4 of the NHL's teams, or close to it, would pay O'Reilly 4.5 over 5 years even if he is coming off his ELC. Colorado may shoot themselves in the foot more often than not trying to do it this way.

Stan Kroenke is a notoriously cheap owner......who knows how hamstrung the GM is on the ROR saga.

nothing wrong with Colorado holding out for an overpayment but they do risk him getting offer sheeted for more than they were planning on paying him in the 1st place and being forced to match.

I like ROR but is he a 1st line centre (not a rhetorical question)? I would take him in a heartbeat but would not want to overpay for him and that might be what it takes. Glad to hear Chevy is shopping and grinding.

 

[buggs]

Never paid much attention to this kid...guess I have some tape to start watching.

So far looking at the numbers, I would not trade away Little or Burmi just yet.
Here is my reasoning.

Little is 25, last year his numbers were alright, but he was snake bit at the start of the season. Sure 08-09 he put up better numbers, then there were the 2 years in between...However, we have a known stable commodity.

Burmi just turned 21 a few months back and is developing in the NHL. He has played a solid 200ft game this year, and works his rear off out on the ice.
Most guys get to be seasoned a down on the farm, Burmi was put in before he was ready. I believe the points will come for this kid yet and I think he will have his breakout year next season as we have seen a solid steady progression.

ROR - 22 years old, the similar numbers year by year as Burmi, though with one more season under his belt. Comes with crazy father who seems to like to poke his nose into the media and make outlandish comments, and sometimes the apple does not fall very far from the tree. We already have requisite media circus attractions with some of our players; do we need more of that?

Maybe getting this kid into Winnipeg gives Kane a big break in terms of attention But yeah, a meddling dad a la Lindros (or was that the mother?) maybe not going to go over well in Winnipeg.

I don't want to see us trade Burmistrov. I know he's not bringing the points but he's bringing everything else to the table and really is still finding his way in the NHL IMO. I'd say keep him. I understand it will take something very good to get ROR here but Burmistrov wouldn't be who I want to move. How about Postma, Antropov and a bucket of pucks?