Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 Part X

[Board Bard]

If they can only protect three D, and only those without NMC, they would need to expose one of their "big 3" - Buff, Myers, Trouba. Might that force them to trading one of them?

Someone mentioned buying out Stuart to free up his protected spot for Trouba. That would be the best route IMO (for more reasons than one).

 

[cheswick]

Why should expiring UFA's count? They would only have their rights for about a week.

Because they counted in previous expansion drafts. Nashville drafted pending UFA Mike Richter for example.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Only Buff & Enstrom have NMC

 

[Aavco Cup]

Because they counted in previous expansion drafts. Nashville drafted pending UFA Mike Richter for example.

There was no salary cap in that draft and no 25% limitation. This one is different

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't get the desire to add $16m (two years of prime Scott Gomez) today to make your piece of the pie smaller in perpetuity.*

Also LV is going to be horribly managed. No matter what, they'll be in the toilet for a few years, at least. Mark my words.

Edit:

* Especially if you have to go spend $8-10m on chaff this offseason that you can dangle in the expansion draft. I... I just don't get it.

1) They obviously expect the pie to get bigger.
2) Nobody is going to spend 8-10 mil this year to collect expendable players to expose.

 

[Aavco Cup]

LV should just pick guys who have good relCorsi. Would be an interesting excercise for an analytical approach.

 

[jetman]

A lot of those players will likely be on AHL salaries. Did you account for that? If the Jets lost Myers in an expansion draft then Chevy should be fired immediately.

If we want to protect Myers that would mean that we would only be able to protect 4 forwards.

Depending on what happens Myers might be the player that makes the most sense to expose.

 

[Aavco Cup]

In the past teams also made deals with expansion teams to "encourage" which player was selected.

 

[10Ducky10]

Stu has a modified NTC.
The players with NTS and NMC clauses won't be made available.....does that mean they have to count as a protected player?
We'd have to protect Buff, Enstrom and Stuart.

 

[Whileee]

Stu has a modified NTC.
The players with NTS and NMC clauses won't be made available.....does that mean they have to count as a protected player?
We'd have to protect Buff, Enstrom and Stuart.

I think I read that players with NMC wouldn't be eligible to move, but some NTC likely would.

 

[Gm0ney]

A lot of those players will likely be on AHL salaries. Did you account for that? If the Jets lost Myers in an expansion draft then Chevy should be fired immediately.

Well, it's not even exactly clear what they mean by exposing 25% of their previous year's payroll. Do they mean payroll as in salary dollars? Do they mean cap hit? They said AHL counts for the purposes of determining if a player is a 1- or 2-year pro. But what does it mean in terms of salary? Is Melchiori's exposure worth 650k or $70k or whatever his AHL salary is?

If teams are allowed to protect 7F/3D/1G or 8 skaters/1G and NMCs are automatically protected, then the Jets would have to protect Enstrom, Buff and you'd think Trouba would get the 3rd D slot. Which would leave Myers open. They could choose the 8 skaters option and protect Myers as well, but then they'd have to expose 3 additional forwards. 3 of: Wheeler, Scheifele, Little, Perreault, Dano, Armia, Lowry. I suppose losing one of Dano, Armia or Lowry is a lot better than losing Myers.

Of course if there are 2 expansion teams, you could lose 2 of Dano, Armia and Lowry.

Taking Myers $5.5M cap hit out of the exposure list would be a big problem as well if pending UFAs are excluded from the expansion draft. Although I suppose the three forwards combined might make a significant fraction of $5.5M. $3.5M maybe? $16.825M exposed would be enough for a $67.3M cap.

If pending UFAs are allowed to count towards the exposure dollars, then there's no problem. Pavelec, Stafford and Thorbz = nearly $10M.

 

[Flair Hay]

Stu has a modified NTC.
The players with NTS and NMC clauses won't be made available.....does that mean they have to count as a protected player?
We'd have to protect Buff, Enstrom and Stuart.

I'd heard NMC would be forced to be protected and NTC could be made available. Hard to tell just yet I guess.

 

[Whileee]

If we want to protect Myers that would mean that we would only be able to protect 4 forwards.

Depending on what happens Myers might be the player that makes the most sense to expose.

A terrible idea, in my opinion.

In that case I would trade Myers earlier for players / picks that the Jets wouldn't need to protect and then pick up a two-year player to expose.

 

[Evil Little]

1) They obviously expect the pie to get bigger.
2) Nobody is going to spend 8-10 mil this year to collect expendable players to expose.

If there's an expansion draft confirmed for '17 you don't see anyone going out and signing a Stafford contract instead of bringing up a youngster?

I do.

If we want to protect Myers that would mean that we would only be able to protect 4 forwards.

Depending on what happens Myers might be the player that makes the most sense to expose.

I don't think there've been any solid numbers suggested yet. If, for example, ELCs are auto-exempt and you've got two ELCs in your top six, then you can protect quite a few forwards.

Stu has a modified NTC.
The players with NTS and NMC clauses won't be made available.....does that mean they have to count as a protected player?
We'd have to protect Buff, Enstrom and Stuart.

It was covered a page, or so, back but the working assumption is that full NMCs need to be protected but modified or limited no-trade clauses can be unprotected since they could be waived anyway.

 

[Whileee]

Well, it's not even exactly clear what they mean by exposing 25% of their previous year's payroll. Do they mean payroll as in salary dollars? Do they mean cap hit? They said AHL counts for the purposes of determining if a player is a 1- or 2-year pro. But what does it mean in terms of salary? Is Melchiori's exposure worth 650k or $70k or whatever his AHL salary is?

If teams are allowed to protect 7F/3D/1G or 8 skaters/1G and NMCs are automatically protected, then the Jets would have to protect Enstrom, Buff and you'd think Trouba would get the 3rd D slot. Which would leave Myers open. They could choose the 8 skaters option and protect Myers as well, but then they'd have to expose 3 additional forwards. 3 of: Wheeler, Scheifele, Little, Perreault, Dano, Armia, Lowry. I suppose losing one of Dano, Armia or Lowry is a lot better than losing Myers.

Of course if there are 2 expansion teams, you could lose 2 of Dano, Armia and Lowry.

Taking Myers $5.5M cap hit out of the exposure list would be a big problem as well if pending UFAs are excluded from the expansion draft. Although I suppose the three forwards combined might make a significant fraction of $5.5M. $3.5M maybe? $16.825M exposed would be enough for a $67.3M cap.

If pending UFAs are allowed to count towards the exposure dollars, then there's no problem. Pavelec, Stafford and Thorbz = nearly $10M.

Jets trade Myers to Tampa for Drouin, Carle and a pick. Problem solved.

 

[jamiebez]

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/14987657/nhl-gms-preview-potential-expansion-draft-rules

First- and second-year pros -- those are players playing pro hockey at any level -- will be exempt from the expansion draft; the bottom line is that if they are signed and playing pro hockey, they're exempt in their first two years. But if they're entering their third year of pro hockey, they're no longer exempt for the expansion draft. Teams would have to either protect them or expose them.

So next offseason (summer of 2017), Comrie, Morrissey, Petan and DeLeo will all be entering their third year of pro hockey. Which means we'd have to protect them all. Which makes things.... interesting.

 

[Gm0ney]

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/14987657/nhl-gms-preview-potential-expansion-draft-rules



So next offseason (summer of 2017), Comrie, Morrissey, Petan and DeLeo will all be entering their third year of pro hockey. Which means we'd have to protect them all. Which makes things.... interesting.

Also that Ehlers fellow.

 

[AWSAA]

^ and Dano, Armia? It's time to start making quantity for quality deals, maybe some prospects for picks (or to move up with the Chicago 1st).

If we want to protect Myers that would mean that we would only be able to protect 4 forwards.

Depending on what happens Myers might be the player that makes the most sense to expose.

Or you just trade Enstrom. Exposing Myers in favor of Toby (who will be 33, on his last year entering 17/18) makes zero sense. Stuart has to GTFO obviously.

 

[Gm0ney]

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/14987657/nhl-gms-preview-potential-expansion-draft-rules



So next offseason (summer of 2017), Comrie, Morrissey, Petan and DeLeo will all be entering their third year of pro hockey. Which means we'd have to protect them all. Which makes things.... interesting.

But wait - that doesn't make sense. If that's the criteria, a guy hasn't played a game of pro hockey would be considered a First Year Pro...? Would Harkins be a first year pro if he spends next season in Junior and the Jets have him signed to an ELC that starts in 2017-18?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If there's an expansion draft confirmed for '17 you don't see anyone going out and signing a Stafford contract instead of bringing up a youngster?

I do.



I don't think there've been any solid numbers suggested yet. If, for example, ELCs are auto-exempt and you've got two ELCs in your top six, then you can protect quite a few forwards.



It was covered a page, or so, back but the working assumption is that full NMCs need to be protected but modified or limited no-trade clauses can be unprotected since they could be waived anyway.

How would that help any team? There might be some trades that otherwise wouldn't happen. Some trades might be inhibited by protected status of some players. Some teams might sign bottom of the barrel UFAs to 2 year contracts to be able to expose them but not at 4+ mil/yr.

You can count on some manipulation taking place. Most of it will be pretty smart and you can also count on some teams losing some decent players. Maybe all teams losing some decent players. The good thing is every team is protected from losing more than 1.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Jets trade Myers to Tampa for Drouin, Carle and a pick. Problem solved.

What does that do for Tampa's expansion draft problem?

 

[Gm0ney]

So if the above is correct and a 3rd year pro will be a player who has completed 2 years of pro hockey...

Exempt Forwards:
Connor
Lemieux

Exempt D:
Poolman

Exempt G:
Phillips

That is all...

 

[cheswick]

But wait - that doesn't make sense. If that's the criteria, a guy hasn't played a game of pro hockey would be considered a First Year Pro...? Would Harkins be a first year pro if he spends next season in Junior and the Jets have him signed to an ELC that starts in 2017-18?

The last draft had the same stipulation regarding "first and second year pros". Anyone remember if LeBruns interpretation is correct?

 

[Whileee]

What does that do for Tampa's expansion draft problem?

They have Coburn to offer up.

Can't remember if Callahan has a NMC or NTC for 2017-18.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They have Coburn to offer up.

Can't remember if Callahan has a NMC or NTC for 2017-18.

They would protect Stralman, Hedman, Sustr and Myers. That's 1 too many. You get to protect not offer up. How do they make sure the one to go is the one they want to 'offer up'?

Callahan is an NMC.