Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 14-15 Part X

[Romang67]

Seriously the worst idea ever.

Agreed. The goalie we should be adding to the roster is down in the AHL.

You know you want it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Reimer, Bernier, Winnik for Pavelec, Hutch, and a 1st.

Seals your goalie problem, your depth problem, and should get you into the playoffs. Both of our goalies can shine behind a team with real defensemen.

I'm sure I'm in the minority here and I would hate to lose that 1st but I would do that deal.

I think many here would not be willing to give up on Hutch so quickly but I simply would not look at it that way. It is a clear solution to an ongoing problem.

 

[KingBogo]

I think they see the POs as extremely important every season but they have a game-plan. I think a crucial part of that plan is to avoid being pressured to make short-term decisions.



I think continuing to walk that line means they won't give up significant assets now in a push for the POs this year.



Not trading those assets at this time does not contradict KB's point that POs are important. It just draws a line where they won't go for short-term help.



I think you could take last summer's rejection by Winnik either the way you describe or the exact opposite. We don't know what Chevy's offer was. He may have offered more money, even term and been turned down. Even if Chevy had high hopes of signing him I don't think Winnik is worth more than a 3rd. I might be overvaluing our 2nd but even then I don't think I would give up Burmi for him at this point unless Winnik was already signed to a good contract.

I think a big question right now is whether or not a couple of rental wingers can make the difference. If we were to pick up a 2nd line and a 3rd line winger would we make the POs with our goaltending? If Hutch can rebound will we make the POs without those rentals? I don't know myself. I wonder what Chevy thinks about those 2 questions?

IMO we have come too far this season for Chevy not to take a swing for the fences and make a couple moves. As I said before the futures we collected in the big trade was approx doubling the high end prospects we have acquired over the last couple of drafts. This frees up some options for Chevy to make some moves and keep the cupboard full. With a 1/2 dozen high end prospects already in place and 2 1st round picks this draft I'm fine with Chevy moving any picks below that.

There is absolutely no guarantee we will be any closer next season, or the season after etc. You need to make it the 1st time. I'd really prefer not to put that off for too many more seasons.

 

[Ducky10]

IMO we have come too far this season for Chevy not to take a swing for the fences and make a couple moves. As I said before the futures we collected in the big trade was approx doubling the high end prospects we have acquired over the last couple of drafts. This frees up some options for Chevy to make some moves and keep the cupboard full. With a 1/2 dozen high end prospects already in place and 2 1st round picks this draft I'm fine with Chevy moving any picks below that.

There is absolutely no guarantee we will be any closer next season, or the season after etc. You need to make it the 1st time. I'd really prefer not to put that off for too many more seasons.

Fully agree, I think that part of the deal was very key to Chevy and believe it was a precursor to making another deal before the deadline, it gets his ducks all in a row. He picked up a former first round pick in Armia, an as close as you can get to a first rounder in Lemieux and now holds two first round picks in this coming draft, it gives him tremendous flexibilty. It would be quite a waste at this point if he didn't take advantage of something to help the team right now.

 

[jetkarma*]

IMO we have come too far this season for Chevy not to take a swing for the fences and make a couple moves. As I said before the futures we collected in the big trade was approx doubling the high end prospects we have acquired over the last couple of drafts. This frees up some options for Chevy to make some moves and keep the cupboard full. With a 1/2 dozen high end prospects already in place and 2 1st round picks this draft I'm fine with Chevy moving any picks below that.

There is absolutely no guarantee we will be any closer next season, or the season after etc. You need to make it the 1st time. I'd really prefer not to put that off for too many more seasons.

All about cost and value. Swing for the fence kind of implies boom or bust , I'm not opposed to spending future assets but not for less than full value and rentals don't intrigue me if we're giving up premium picks or prospects.

I think we have assurances we'll be close if not solidly in , in the near future and going forward so that is less of a concern for me personally

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Myers will be the better dman. And I'm not saying stafford is better than Kane but his production has been good so far, he's good on the pp, and is more versatile moving up and down the lineup. If we retain stafford this trade will be a huge win.
Edit: and Myers has six points and has played well too.

I don't think Myers is clearly the better D man. He and Bogo are too different in style and strengths and weaknesses. Each is very good in his own way. Certainly Myers is better offensively. If he turns out to be = defensively then we will have won that part of the deal. I'm happy with the swap but we are not as physical. We also lost a lot of physicality with the loss of Kane regardless of how Stafford turns out.

I think chevy's mindset needs to be pretty conservative...he cannot start throwing quality draft picks or prospects around for 6 weeks of daniel Winnik. As much as it would suck to miss the playoffs this year he cannot panic.

There is a big youth wave coming soon and it would be very foolish to undermine it to get into the show only to be swept by Anaheim.

If anything, jets should maybe take a flier on a goalie and hope he turns into Devan Dubnyk...

The most I would give up would be Postma and a third rounder..no idea what you could get for that...

Absolutely the bolded.

I might give up more than that but only for the right return.

A caution though about giving up Postma to easily. That somewhat ties our hands trading Buff if that is what it comes to. We don't have another 3RHD candidate in the system. So any trade of Buff would have to include one. Just makes a deal harder to do. I would trade Stu before Postma. I think Stu would have significant value to a playoff team and we have several potential replacements. Stu is expendable and I am not even going into criticism of his play. He can be replaced now by Stu2 or Pardy and next year by Morrissey.

I used to see the Kane trade as:

Kane >> Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, 1st
Bogosian < Myers

Instead, I try and look at it now as:

Kane = Myers
Bogosian =< Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, 1st

I have come around to a very similar way of looking at it.

If Stafford was 2 years younger and had any term left, I'd have opinion on this deal. I don't even dislike it, but it's turning us into a playoff team this year.

Recent results don't support that statement. I don't get it.

CLAIM BRYZGALOV

I mean it.

http://www.tsn.ca/sunday-s-ice-chips-ducks-place-g-bryzgalov-on-waivers-1.213500

Only if we knew we could dump Pavs.

Not even then. Small sample size but he has been seriously bad this season. .847 Please look elsewhere for a solution.

I mean it.

 

[pucka lucka]

Recent results don't support that statement. I don't get it.

I left out a word. not.

 

[KingBogo]

All about cost and value. Swing for the fence kind of implies boom or bust , I'm not opposed to spending future assets but not for less than full value and rentals don't intrigue me if we're giving up premium picks or prospects.

I think we have assurances we'll be close if not solidly in , in the near future and going forward so that is less of a concern for me personally

I was using swing for the fences to mean acquiring someone who can actually make a difference for the playoff run, and not for someone virtually indistinguishable from what we currently have at the bottom of the roster.

I'm less sure about being solidly in the playoffs in the near future. First of all our top prospects are still very young and still in junior or the NCAA. We are likely a couple years away from them being the deference makers we currently need. In the meantime we have a good chunk of the top of our roster sniffing free agency. Especially if Buff is ready to move on, we will likely take a step back. Being a playoff team may go a long way in our ability to keep the core intact.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

IMO we have come too far this season for Chevy not to take a swing for the fences and make a couple moves. As I said before the futures we collected in the big trade was approx doubling the high end prospects we have acquired over the last couple of drafts. This frees up some options for Chevy to make some moves and keep the cupboard full. With a 1/2 dozen high end prospects already in place and 2 1st round picks this draft I'm fine with Chevy moving any picks below that.

There is absolutely no guarantee we will be any closer next season, or the season after etc. You need to make it the 1st time. I'd really prefer not to put that off for too many more seasons.

We only disagree on where to draw the line. I'd even agree with giving up those higher value assets for the right pieces. I don't think we should let the situation lead us to pay more than we would normally though. There is absolutely no guarantee that adding Winnik and Bergenheim would even get us into the playoffs much less win any PO games.

I agree with the bold but something I thought of sometime back when we still had Kane and MP was that we might get there this year and then take a step back next year with the arrival of a number of rookies. I'm not saying the rookies would = a backward step but they will make rookie mistakes and it could work out that way. Just a thought.

Edit:My own preference on adds would be Tlusty and Calvert over Winnik & Bergenheim. Calvert is not a true rental and Tlusty is no more uncertain than the others to sign here. If he is kept he is a top 6 player instead of bottom 6.

 

[KingBogo]

We only disagree on where to draw the line. I'd even agree with giving up those higher value assets for the right pieces. I don't think we should let the situation lead us to pay more than we would normally though. There is absolutely no guarantee that adding Winnik and Bergenheim would even get us into the playoffs much less win any PO games.

I agree with the bold but something I thought of sometime back when we still had Kane and MP was that we might get there this year and then take a step back next year with the arrival of a number of rookies. I'm not saying the rookies would = a backward step but they will make rookie mistakes and it could work out that way. Just a thought.

You are probably right on that. Maybe you are just more patient then I am? Four years seems like a long enough time to steer a team into the playoffs when over 50% of the teams in the league make it. 57% in our conference. We agree that the youngins coming in won't likely be ready to make a real difference for a couple seasons. I'd just like this organization roll the dice a little. We have lots of prospect depth and I don't want to damage that, but the current roster just needs a nudge or two in the right direction.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Fully agree, I think that part of the deal was very key to Chevy and believe it was a precursor to making another deal before the deadline, it gets his ducks all in a row. He picked up a former first round pick in Armia, an as close as you can get to a first rounder in Lemieux and now holds two first round picks in this coming draft, it gives him tremendous flexibilty. It would be quite a waste at this point if he didn't take advantage of something to help the team right now.

I understand that many on here want Chevy to buy at the deadline to try and make the playoffs. .... I am starting to think that the Jets over achieved in the 1st half of the season ( low win total against playoff teams and 80 % win total against non playoff teams). Since the all star break every body is saying the Jets are slumping. I say they are reverting to a norm and any assets used in trade for a rental for the remaining 20 games would be a waste, Winnik is not worth the asking price. If Chevy can get a deal in the last hour b4 200 pm on march 2 nd....... then maybe.

The way the Jets played the 5 games after the all star break and the last three games against Edm / Wash / and Toronto they have not inspired me to put my chips into the pot.... but the opposite and hold the course. I do not want another knee jerk reaction ( see Settiguchi) that waste assets ( 2nd round pick) on crap players to aplease a starving fan base.

When we got a franchise back .......... we said we want to draft and develop and use the Nashville model for success. I see Nashville going all in trading their 1st rounder and wpg grown prospect Leipsic (3 rd rounder) for two good rentals. Its just that there is a big difference between going all in with a four of a kind (in first place with the best goalie in the league) or going all in with a pair of 7 s and Queen high ( Jets with spotty goal tending and barly holding onto a playoff spot).

**** I think a lot of posters want to sit at the big table with the big boys but they do not realize they don't have the cards.

This rant is not directed at Ducky (it was just the last post I read about people calling Chevy to make a trade).

 

[allan5oh]

We are still scouting buffalo a lit, and are still scouting the flyers.

 

[KingBogo]

I understand that many on here want Chevy to buy at the deadline to try and make the playoffs. .... I am starting to think that the Jets over achieved in the 1st half of the season ( low win total against playoff teams and 80 % win total against non playoff teams). Since the all star break every body is saying the Jets are slumping. I say they are reverting to a norm and any assets used in trade for a rental for the remaining 20 games would be a waste, Winnik is not worth the asking price. If Chevy can get a deal in the last hour b4 200 pm on march 2 nd....... then maybe.

The way the Jets played the 5 games after the all star break and the last three games against Edm / Wash / and Toronto they have not inspired me to put my chips into the pot.... but the opposite and hold the course. I do not want another knee jerk reaction ( see Settiguchi) that waste assets ( 2nd round pick) on crap players to aplease a starving fan base.

When we got a franchise back .......... we said we want to draft and develop and use the Nashville model for success. I see Nashville going all in trading their 1st rounder and wpg grown prospect Leipsic (3 rd rounder) for two good rentals. Its just that there is a big difference between going all in with a four of a kind (in first place with the best goalie in the league) or going all in with a pair of 7 s and Queen high ( Jets with spotty goal tending and barly holding onto a playoff spot).

**** I think a lot of posters want to sit at the big table with the big boys but they do not realize they don't have the cards.

This rant is not directed at Ducky (it was just the last post I read about people calling Chevy to make a trade).

Not trying to negate your argument and I don't totally disagree with it, but a 2nd round pick has less than a 50% chance of having any value at all in terms of producing an NHL player. Even one at the very bottom of the roster. Chevy has added 3 assets significantly higher then the second round pick within the last 10 days alone. Maybe he sees it as a relatively small price to pay for a chance to sit at the big table. Since the rewards of the potential payoff far exceed the minuscule risk to the future of the organization.

Sometimes around here we forget the value of appeasing the starving fan base. Since it is Mr. Chipman's pocket that gets filled with a happy fan base not ours. A playoff appearance would be huge for the city and the bottom line and the organization knows it.

 

[Ducky10]

I understand that many on here want Chevy to buy at the deadline to try and make the playoffs. .... I am starting to think that the Jets over achieved in the 1st half of the season ( low win total against playoff teams and 80 % win total against non playoff teams). Since the all star break every body is saying the Jets are slumping. I say they are reverting to a norm and any assets used in trade for a rental for the remaining 20 games would be a waste, Winnik is not worth the asking price. If Chevy can get a deal in the last hour b4 200 pm on march 2 nd....... then maybe.

The way the Jets played the 5 games after the all star break and the last three games against Edm / Wash / and Toronto they have not inspired me to put my chips into the pot.... but the opposite and hold the course. I do not want another knee jerk reaction ( see Settiguchi) that waste assets ( 2nd round pick) on crap players to aplease a starving fan base.

When we got a franchise back .......... we said we want to draft and develop and use the Nashville model for success. I see Nashville going all in trading their 1st rounder and wpg grown prospect Leipsic (3 rd rounder) for two good rentals. Its just that there is a big difference between going all in with a four of a kind (in first place with the best goalie in the league) or going all in with a pair of 7 s and Queen high ( Jets with spotty goal tending and barly holding onto a playoff spot).

**** I think a lot of posters want to sit at the big table with the big boys but they do not realize they don't have the cards.

This rant is not directed at Ducky (it was just the last post I read about people calling Chevy to make a trade).

Hey, nothing personal and I actually largely agree with you, at the beginning of the season I didn't think this team was deep enough to really make the playoffs, especially with the Central being so deep. Goaltending has taken them a long way this year, as far as Hutch is concerned but so has some great team play, and yes a fair amount of overachieving for some players.

Having said all that , the team is still holding down a playoff spot this late in the season and the Buffalo trade has provided quite a wealth of assets combined with some considerable depth already in the system. I don't think it sets this team back at all in it's draft and develop philosophy to acquire a player that might get them further along this year and really excite their fanbase.

 

[Flair Hay]

Yeah not getting into the playoffs would be pretty devastating. I think a
3rd for a rental is a solid risk/reward at this point to help the team out to get in.

If they don't it will suck but it's pretty obvious it'll be due to losing Kane which happened due to injury before we decided to trade him.

We have a blue chipper at forward, defense and goal coming up and two first rounders so the time to go all in by trading picks for rentals isn't here yet.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I left out a word. not.

'K

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You are probably right on that. Maybe you are just more patient then I am? Four years seems like a long enough time to steer a team into the playoffs when over 50% of the teams in the league make it. 57% in our conference. We agree that the youngins coming in won't likely be ready to make a real difference for a couple seasons. I'd just like this organization roll the dice a little. We have lots of prospect depth and I don't want to damage that, but the current roster just needs a nudge or two in the right direction.

Yup. Chevy has not handled the goaltending situation well enough. Pav should have been gone last year and Hutch should be breaking in gently playing 20 games behind a real NHL goalie. This 4th year we should make the playoffs and that is really in doubt now. As in the past that doubt is more because of goaltending than the other issues (thought the tenders did keep us in a PO spot so far).

We still have a chance and I will be disappointed if Chevy doesn't do anything at all with the number of possibilities that are supposed to be out there. OTOH if the TD arrives and I hear that all those candidates went for high prices I will forgive him again. If it would take a 1st to get Winnik I will be glad to pass.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not trying to negate your argument and I don't totally disagree with it, but a 2nd round pick has less than a 50% chance of having any value at all in terms of producing an NHL player. Even one at the very bottom of the roster. Chevy has added 3 assets significantly higher then the second round pick within the last 10 days alone. Maybe he sees it as a relatively small price to pay for a chance to sit at the big table. Since the rewards of the potential payoff far exceed the minuscule risk to the future of the organization.

Sometimes around here we forget the value of appeasing the starving fan base. Since it is Mr. Chipman's pocket that gets filled with a happy fan base not ours. A playoff appearance would be huge for the city and the bottom line and the organization knows it.

I think we can safely say that Chevy's drafting record supports our odds being a little better than that average. The supposed strength of this years draft class extends well down. That also should raise the odds. Since it is just seat of the pants I won't put a number on it but I think it is quite a bit better than 50/50.

A playoff appearance, even a brief one would be huge. It might even get us above 2nd last on the acceptable trade destinations list. It is worth rolling the dice but it is not worth putting too much on the table.

 

[wpgsilver]

I think we can safely say that Chevy's drafting record supports our odds being a little better than that average. The supposed strength of this years draft class extends well down. That also should raise the odds. Since it is just seat of the pants I won't put a number on it but I think it is quite a bit better than 50/50.

I am not prepared to state the bolded.
I love what Chevy has done drafting but its too early to tell AFAIC.
He's had some hits (Lowry) and some brutal misses (Sutter).
Most of his picks are still in junior/AHL, I'm not prepared to give Chevy too much credit till they prove they're NHL players.

They look good, but do I think he's better than average? We'll see.

 

[KingBogo]

Yup. Chevy has not handled the goaltending situation well enough. Pav should have been gone last year and Hutch should be breaking in gently playing 20 games behind a real NHL goalie. This 4th year we should make the playoffs and that is really in doubt now. As in the past that doubt is more because of goaltending than the other issues (thought the tenders did keep us in a PO spot so far).

We still have a chance and I will be disappointed if Chevy doesn't do anything at all with the number of possibilities that are supposed to be out there. OTOH if the TD arrives and I hear that all those candidates went for high prices I will forgive him again. If it would take a 1st to get Winnik I will be glad to pass.

Agree 100% about the goaltending. I'm still holding out hope we find a way to fix this. Maybe Chevy pulls something off that includes a goalie. Wishful thinking but.....

Also agreed a 1st is too much for Winnik. But I'm sure I'd pay a higher price then many for him. I really like his game, and he is someone who has been a bit of an NHL nomad. Maybe he finds a good fit in Winnipeg and sticks around for awhile.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I am not prepared to state the bolded.
I love what Chevy has done drafting but its too early to tell AFAIC.
He's had some hits (Lowry) and some brutal misses (Sutter).
Most of his picks are still in junior/AHL, I'm not prepared to give Chevy too much credit till they prove they're NHL players.

They look good, but do I think he's better than average? We'll see.

Fair enough. I'm usually the one saying that because a lot of people want to give him too much credit for his drafting. I am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt on a little better than average though. I stop short of drafting savant.

 

[puck stoppa]

I wonder why Tj didn't play last night, he was playing fine, but somehow peluso stays in and Tj comes out.

 

[wpgsilver]

I wonder why Tj didn't play last night, he was playing fine, but somehow peluso stays in and Tj comes out.

Well, Peluso is a direct descendant of Zeus. And Galiardi...?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agree 100% about the goaltending. I'm still holding out hope we find a way to fix this. Maybe Chevy pulls something off that includes a goalie. Wishful thinking but.....

Also agreed a 1st is too much for Winnik. But I'm sure I'd pay a higher price then many for him. I really like his game, and he is someone who has been a bit of an NHL nomad. Maybe he finds a good fit in Winnipeg and sticks around for awhile.

I would be PO'd and at Chevy if he gave up a 2nd for Winnik. I think a 3rd is about right. If it turned out your way though I would be glad to eat crow. Winnik was one of the FAs I was hoping for last summer IIRC. Keep in mind though that he will be available again this summer for no assets. He will probably get a better contract than last summer too. If we really want him we can go after him then and keep our 2nd/3rd so it is still only the 21 remaining games we are talking about here. Down to 18 games by Mar. 3.

 

[KingBogo]

I would be PO'd and at Chevy if he gave up a 2nd for Winnik. I think a 3rd is about right. If it turned out your way though I would be glad to eat crow. Winnik was one of the FAs I was hoping for last summer IIRC. Keep in mind though that he will be available again this summer for no assets. He will probably get a better contract than last summer too. If we really want him we can go after him then and keep our 2nd/3rd so it is still only the 21 remaining games we are talking about here. Down to 18 games by Mar. 3.

I didn't say my price for Winnik was a 2nd. I'd prefer some sort of conditional deal where it would be a 2nd if we re-signed him. More likely to move a 3rd and later pick or 3rd and B level prospect that is unlikely to be part of our future.