Jets 2013 Draft Talk - Part 2

[Huffer]

I'm not on the Mantha train. But I'll take any of Ristolainen, Zadorov, Domi, Wennberg, Horvat or Nichushkin (if he falls).

Agreed. Too many question marks on Mantha, compared to what else is there.

 

[scelaton]

If you let me pick one or the other right now, I'd take Burmi... I'm not sure that skinner's career will be a long one, even though he's got talent out the ears.

Which would mean that, of the entire 2010 draft class, there are only 2 forwards who clearly rank higher than Burmi in the NHL, Taylor and Tyler, drafted #1 and #2.
You really have to wonder what the big trade-Burmi fuss is about...could it be a PR war waged by a combative agent, trying to parlay his player's relative performance into a juicy contract that he doesn't deserve...yet?
Naah, impossible.

 

[truck]

I'm not on the Mantha train. But I'll take any of Ristolainen, Zadorov, Domi, Wennberg, Horvat or Nichushkin (if he falls).

Mantha wouldn't be first on my list, but I like him over Gauthier. I also assumed Nich and RR would be gone. RR is tough for me too from the organizational needs perspective. Team's desire for him should vary based on Chevy's plan for Buff, Redmond and Postma.

 

[truck]

Agreed. Too many question marks on Mantha, compared to what else is there.

I see question marks everywhere when you get to Mantha and Co. Gauthier and Horvat have big Qs about offensive upside.

 

[Huffer]

I see question marks everywhere when you get to Mantha and Co. Gauthier and Horvat have big Qs about offensive upside.

Agreed, but I see Mantha's as higher than both of those guys. There are lot's of guys in that "teen" range that I would like more than Mantha personally.

 

[untouchable21]

I think I have settled in on wanting:

Domi, Wennberg, Horvat or Mantha

...unless somebody awesome falls.

For me, it's Domi all the way. If he's off the board I want Gauthier, Horvat or Zykov in that order. Hartman may be a bit of a reach, but I do like him as well.

If our pick is a defenseman, I'd like Ristolainen or Zadorov. I think I prefer Risto. McCoshen could also prove to be a worthy selection.


Outside of that 1st rounder I want Chevy to do everything humanly possible and trade up to the early 2nd to secure Heatherington if he's still available after round one. He looks like he could be another Hamonic type defenseman.

As for their other top 90 selections, I'd hope they'd be looking at players such as Dano, Dahlstrom, Wallmark, Hayden, Sanford, Fasching, Santini, Lodge and Cassels.





I'd be thrilled if we came away with Domi, Heatherington, Dano, Sanford, Dahlstrom and Cassels.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

I'll take any of Ristolainen, Zadorov, Domi, Horvat, Pulock


Connor Hurley in 2nd rnd would be cool as would Cammarata at some point


Zykov still my fave prospect in this draft

 

[untouchable21]

I see question marks everywhere when you get to Mantha and Co. Gauthier and Horvat have big Qs about offensive upside.

I'd still take the defensive beast that is Gauthier and take your time with him. Let him develop his offensive game before throwing him into the NHL. At worst you end up with a Marty Hanzal type and trust me, the JETS are going to need that in the Western Conference. I can live with that and I wouldn't consider Hanzal naturally offensive either. (although he has put together some decent seasons)

Mantha is too hit or miss for my liking. I like players that can contribute even if they're not scoring and Mantha has that enigma status where if he's not scoring, he may as well not be dressed because his compete level is in question.

 

[truck]

I'd still take the defensive beast that is Gauthier and take your time with him. Let him develop his offensive game before throwing him into the NHL. At worst you end up with a Marty Hanzal type and trust me, the JETS are going to need that in the Western Conference. I can live with that and I wouldn't consider Hanzal naturally offensive either. (although he has put together some decent seasons)

Mantha is too hit or miss for my liking. I like players that can contribute even if they're not scoring and Mantha has that enigma status where if he's not scoring, he may as well not be dressed because his compete level is in question.

The worst you can do with Gauthier is a tough matchups first/second line centre? It is never that sure of a thing. I also think you can find similar defensive value is better players like Horvat and Wennberg.

Mantha is definitely more hit or miss, but 6'4 50 goal scorers don't come around often. He is the kind of player where a hit is a big hit. He wouldn't be my first choice, but somebody will probably take him pretty high.

 

[truck]

I'll take any of Ristolainen, Zadorov, Domi, Horvat, Pulock


Connor Hurley in 2nd rnd would be cool as would Cammarata at some point


Zykov still my fave prospect in this draft

I also quite like Zykov. I have hime right in there with Mantha. I could definitely see Chevy liking him too.

I don't dislike Gauthier, it is just that I would prefer to draft a player that has a shot at becoming a 1st liner. I just don't see it with him.



EDIT


Also a fan of Hurley in round two.

I like a bunch of guys there to varying degrees.

Carrier has some fun power forward in him.

Sorenson, Fasching, Arnesson, Poire, Lodge are interesting too and they all fit Chevy's size profile.

There are other fun players too, but I don't want to fixate on anybody under 6'1.

Regardless, there will be some really nice upside available right up till the end of the 2nd round and beyond.

 

[Boreal]

Zykov is interesting - Zadorov and Domi would have to be off the board for me to look at Zykov, but I think I prefer him over Gauthier and Horvat right now.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I don't dislike Gauthier, it is just that I would prefer to draft a player that has a shot at becoming a 1st liner. I just don't see it with him.

Would you have said the same thing about Getzlaf?

Ryan Getzlaf - Team - League - GP - G - A - PTS - +/- - POGP - POG - POA - POPTS
02-03 - Calgary Hitman - WHL - 70 - 29 - 39 - 68 - +8 - 5 - 1 - 1 - 2

Frederik Gauthier - Team - League - GP - G - A - PTS - +/- - POGP - POG - POA - POPTS
12-13 - Rimouski Oceanic - QMJHL - 62 - 22 - 38 - 60 - +22 - 6 - 0 - 2 - 2

Can't believe the Domi love. I do not think he will be a gamebreaker by any means, he does not have the skating or top end skills, IMO. His bulldog style will not work at the next level at his size. I think he will have a real rough time adjusting to NHL game.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Holden: I'm a bit concerned about Domi translating his skills to the NHL, but skating isn't one of my issues with him. In all the London games I've been able to catch this year, his skating has been one of the things that has impressed me. What are you seeing that gives you cause for concern in this area?

 

[Sweech]

Would you have said the same thing about Getzlaf?

Ryan Getzlaf - Team - League - GP - G - A - PTS - +/- - POGP - POG - POA - POPTS
02-03 - Calgary Hitman - WHL - 70 - 29 - 39 - 68 - +8 - 5 - 1 - 1 - 2

Frederik Gauthier - Team - League - GP - G - A - PTS - +/- - POGP - POG - POA - POPTS
12-13 - Rimouski Oceanic - QMJHL - 62 - 22 - 38 - 60 - +22 - 6 - 0 - 2 - 2

Can't believe the Domi love. I do not think he will be a gamebreaker by any means, he does not have the skating or top end skills, IMO. His bulldog style will not work at the next level at his size. I think he will have a real rough time adjusting to NHL game.

You may like Gauthier, but that's an awful comparison. Junior level is quite a bit different from 10 years ago, not to mention the WHL and QMJHL are quite different when it comes to prospects and scoring.

I like Gauthier as a low end 1st pick, but not every big, semi-decent scorer is the next Kopitar/Getzlaf. Look at Faksa from last year...

I'm really hoping Shinkaruk or Wennberg could fall to us. With the slightest possibility that Lindholm actually falls.

Otherwise I really want Pulock or Zadorov.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Holden: I'm a bit concerned about Domi translating his skills to the NHL, but skating isn't one of my issues with him. In all the London games I've been able to catch this year, his skating has been one of the things that has impressed me. What are you seeing that gives you cause for concern in this area?

Not concern per se. His skating is fine. Not sure if he has the power of a St. Louis or Cammalleri type though, the small guys that succeed at next level. It's good, but at that size it needs to be more than good, IMO. We'll see.

You may like Gauthier, but that's an awful comparison. Junior level is quite a bit different from 10 years ago, not to mention the WHL and QMJHL are quite different when it comes to prospects and scoring.

I like Gauthier as a low end 1st pick, but not every big, semi-decent scorer is the next Kopitar/Getzlaf. Look at Faksa from last year...

Is it now? Explain how?

WHL and QMJHL are different, but not so massively as you would have us believe.

From LAST YEAR. Are you kidding? You have no idea how that will turn out.

Kopitar is an excellent comparison point for Gauthier since they play almost identical styles. Of course not every big center will be a key player, by the same token that can be said about absolutely any position/player.

Don't think Shinkaruk would even be a fall. He is slotted around 13. Would not really want him though, too much of a perimeter player for my tastes. Be alright with Wennberg, but he has serious concerns with his coming out of nowhere (same concerns I have with Zykov). But I would not have any problem with Wennberg or Zykov.

 

[truck]

Would you have said the same thing about Getzlaf?

Ryan Getzlaf - Team - League - GP - G - A - PTS - +/- - POGP - POG - POA - POPTS
02-03 - Calgary Hitman - WHL - 70 - 29 - 39 - 68 - +8 - 5 - 1 - 1 - 2

Frederik Gauthier - Team - League - GP - G - A - PTS - +/- - POGP - POG - POA - POPTS
12-13 - Rimouski Oceanic - QMJHL - 62 - 22 - 38 - 60 - +22 - 6 - 0 - 2 - 2

Can't believe the Domi love. I do not think he will be a gamebreaker by any means, he does not have the skating or top end skills, IMO. His bulldog style will not work at the next level at his size. I think he will have a real rough time adjusting to NHL game.

Getzlaf is an exception, not the rule.

 

[Guerzy]

I'll say one thing as a Gauthier supporter, if he comes out next season and puts up 75-80+ points, I think people will be drooling over the kid, wishing they took him. Though I have a feeling a team may take him fairly high, 10-15. I could see him as a Scheifele type pick, where a team see's him, knows what he can do, likes him, drafts him. Maybe a few spots early, but they get their guy and are happy with that, just as we are and have proven to be to date with Scheifele, who by all indications has developed at a great rate through Junior.

Then again, I could just as easily be wrong. If he puts up 60 points again then he's really going to be questioned.

Personally, I just think there are a lot of tools there for him, and I see him excelling, improving, and getting better. How many players with the smarts/Hockey IQ, hands and skating don't stand at least a good chance as young draftee in developing and translating their offensive game? Those are HUGE selling points for me because in general you cannot teach that stuff. Players get chosen in the top 10-15 every year and have some questions, some flaws, maybe not being sure exactly how he'll translate, but for Gauthier I just see so much there as a prospect. If he pans out, the team who selects him could have one heck of a top 2 centerman who can literally do it all. That alone when drafting is enough to sell me on him if you can get him in and around the right spot. And you don't need "elite stars" to win, Boston is proving that. A 1-2 center of Scheifele and Gauthier in 2 or so years could be something special. I think many see how elite and how much of a workhorse Gauthier is defensively, how oddly responsible he is in that aspect of the game, that they think his offense won't excel or translate and he's just going to be another Paul Gaustad. And, maybe he is... but at 17-18 years old showing what he is showing, it's a well worth gamble, in my opinion.

I find when it comes to the draft, some are just too fixed on "We need a no. 1 center", "we need a no. 1 defenseman". Many people think their 1st round pick will be a top line player or top line defenseman or no. 1 goalie, and that's just not the case. Which ya, that would be great, but the truth is, you're likely not getting it. So for a guy who in my opinion stands a legitimate chance at being a no. 2 center who could put up 50-60 points (though I think Gauthier can be slightly better than that) and literally do EVERYTHING else a coach dreams of having a player do... that's fine for me from the #13 pick.

 

[Whileee]

It would seem that the following is a list of potential draftees available at the Jets #13 draft position. I've listed them roughly in the order of their draft ranking, which means that the higher ones on the list might be less likely to be available.

Nurse
Ristolainen
Shinkaruk
Domi
Zadorov
Horvat
Gauthier
Lazar
Mantha
Pulock
Zykov

It seems likely that only 5 or 6 of these players will be available, assuming that a player like Fucale or Morin is taken earlier than #13.

I've bolded the 5 that I tend to prefer, though I also like Gauthier.

Ristolainen - seems like a solid, versatile top-4 D, with a limited bust potential.
Shinkaruk - pure offense, and I think the Jets need that. I'm not convinced that LLW will continue to be as productive, and so we need a bit more offensive punch.
Domi - see under "Shinkaruk".
Zadorov - big, tough, good skater that could solidify the D on the left side.
Horvat - something about him reminds me of Ladd. Tough, good leader, very good hands. (Lazar might fit this mold too).

 

[Gil Fisher]

It would seem that the following is a list of potential draftees available at the Jets #13 draft position.

Ristolainen
Zadorov
Horvat
Wennberg
Zykov
Domi
Shinkaruk
Pulock
Gauthier
Mantha
Lazar

I've ranked them as I'd have them, with Wennberg added, and Nurse deleted (not interested). I'm fairly uncertain on Shinkaruk.

If Lindholm or Nichushkin slides to #9, I'd love to move up to snag him.

 

[Guerzy]

Would you have said the same thing about Getzlaf?

Ryan Getzlaf - Team - League - GP - G - A - PTS - +/- - POGP - POG - POA - POPTS
02-03 - Calgary Hitman - WHL - 70 - 29 - 39 - 68 - +8 - 5 - 1 - 1 - 2

Frederik Gauthier - Team - League - GP - G - A - PTS - +/- - POGP - POG - POA - POPTS
12-13 - Rimouski Oceanic - QMJHL - 62 - 22 - 38 - 60 - +22 - 6 - 0 - 2 - 2

Can't believe the Domi love. I do not think he will be a gamebreaker by any means, he does not have the skating or top end skills, IMO. His bulldog style will not work at the next level at his size. I think he will have a real rough time adjusting to NHL game.

And just to note, Holden, if we look at Domi's stat line as a first year player in the OHL, he had just 49 points in 62 games. No knock on Domi, I like him, I think he's going to make the NHL.

Now, it certainly cannot be forgotten or not said that Domi was 16-17 years old as a rookie last year, while Gauthier was 17-18 as a rookie this year. So, I recognize that that certainly makes a difference, but, as a long time OHL season ticket guy myself, it's just one year and the fact is for first year players there is generally an adjustment/learning curve, and that can take a toll on first year players offensive outputs. Rule of thumb, a first year player won't put up those big, shiny offensive numbers. That escalation generally comes in their 2nd year as they're accustomed to the league, schedule, surroundings, life-style, etc.


Give Gauthier a year here, and in my opinion if his statistics jump to 75-80 points, he too will answer a lot of the critics to this point. These kids will always have critics until they answer the bell at the NHL level, however. If Gauthier put up 70-75 points this past season, his offense likely isn't a question, but as a first year player in the QMJHL, or in Junior in general, that is not rare, nor is it the most telling indicator of his future potential.

I'm not trying to cherry pick stats just to form an argument, and I know it's a touch unfair of a comparison as these were all of the mentioned players rookie seasons, but like I said, whether you are a rookie at 16-17 years old or a rookie at 17-18, your first year in the junior leagues is generally not a big offensive year for you.


Jeff Carter at 17-18 (2nd year) put up 71 points, first year 35 points.

Mike Richards at 16-17 put up 58 points in 65 games.

Corey Perry at 16-17 put up 59 points in 60 games.

Matt Duchene at 16-17 put up 50 points in 64 games.

Logan Couture at 16-17 put up 64 points in 65 games.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at 16-17 put up 65 points in 67 games.

Jordan Eberle at 16-17 put up 55 points in 66 games.

Jordan Staal at 16-17 put up 28 points in 66 games (3rd line center on a Memorial Cup finalist). In his 2nd year as a go-to guy, at 17-18 years old just like Gauthier, he put up 68 points in 68 games. Jordan Staal actually isn't a bad comparison to Gauthier, all things considered, and if we could get that type of no. 2 center/top 2 center at #13, I'm sold. I feel Scheifele/Gauthier could possibly give us a scenario like Krejci/Bergeron give Boston, for example.

If we want perhaps a more comparable comparison, look at Tyler Biggs, drafted by Toronto 1st round, 22nd overall in 2011. Big, strong forward who just came to the OHL this past season at 19-20 years old to play with Oshawa. He isn't an earth shattering talent, but many believe with his tools he could be a top 6 winger. As a rookie, Biggs had just 53 points in 60 games, and he was playing on a strong team with good talent.

Another comparable is Rangers prospect J.T. Miller drafted 1st round 15th overall in 2011. Came to the OHL at 18-19 years of age, put up 62 points in 61 games. Yet, he is projected as a prospect to be a top 6 forward.

Gauthier just so happened to put up those type of numbers in his first year, but at 17-18 years of age. A year older than Carter, Richards, Perry, Duchene, Couture, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, but a year younger than guys like Biggs or Miller, but the same age as Jordan Staal and Getzlaf, as Holden pointed out. Rookie years in Junior whether you are 16-17, 17-18, or 18-19 are generally not big offensive years. Talented or not, projected top 6 forwards or not, these are kids and there is a big adjustment period to the Junior game. More than some like to believe. At the Junior level they aren't robots, no matter how well they go on to be as hockey players at the NHL level.


All of the mentioned players here took that next step offensively in their 2nd years, as they should have. Now we will have to see if Gauthier will too. If he does, great, he definitely should given he'll be an older player and a 2nd year guy. If he doesn't, then I will certainly question his offensive game.

As far as "projections" go, if you buy that sort of thing, in 2 or so years, we *could* be looking at a foundation at forward of,

Kane - Scheifele - Wheeler
Ladd - Gauthier - Little
? - Lowry - Burmistrov
? - Sutter - ?

I like that, personally, given what we know today. And not to unrealistic as far as projections go given Scheifele will have 2 years NHL experience by then, Gauthier likely a year of AHL (maybe NHL) under his belt. Lowry will have at least 2 years pro (AHL/NHL) under his belt, Sutter too at at least 1-2 years AHL experience. Now of course we can't predict the future, but most teams do have some sort of vision/depth chart.

 

[mondo3]

It's very difficult to know for sure who will be available; if i recall from last year, the draft didn't go much like the pre-draft forum predictions.

 

[buggs]

Like Guerzy, I'm pretty high on Gauthier too. I readily admit he's a reach at 13 from some (many?) perspectives so I really just look at it as not bothering me if Chevy calls his name at #13. It's kind of a Scheifele-type of pick to me. I do know for sure that the scouts/management have a lot more information on these kids than I do and I think those interviews they do are really critical to whether they take a kid or not.

That said I'm pretty in line with what most other people are thinking outside of taking another D. Of course you can never have too many D in the pipeline but I think we just have too much of a pressing need for forwards to do that again this year with our first round pick.

I just don't see Monahan, Lindholm or Nichuskin (well, maybe the latter depending on the KHL rumblings) dropping to us so I'm not even including them.

As for the order:

Wennberg
Shinkaruk
Domi
Gauthier
Horvat
Lazar
Mantha
Zykov
Erne

So yeah, I discounted the D guys and took them right out. Obviously if Chevy feels different and grabs one of Ristolainen/Zadorov/Pulock it's a good fit and a good pick, I'm just leaning towards forwards. Not going to be griping if one of those guys is our pick at #13.

I like Wennberg a little more than Shinkaruk because I think the latter ends up moving to the wing and we've got enough guys we want to move to the wing from center, maybe (Burmistrov?)

Domi and Horvat I'm not that big a fan of, but I could easily be wrong. I do like how both stepped up at the end of the season but I also wonder if that can be maintained at the next level. I'm more high on Domi because I still think there's a bit more room to improve and he showed some real flashes. Horvat, not so much but he would be nice because he might actually be able to step in and play right away though I'd prefer a year on the rock for him. I kind of wonder if Horvat's late season push didn't put him higher in the rankings than he otherwise should be?

I'm not real high on Lazar or Mantha but I'm also probably underrating them. I think most are underrating Adam Erne too. I like his game but wish he played the other wing. Zykov sort of gets the same knock - wrong wing - otherwise I can't defend him being there in my rating. I think all four are more of a reach, in my opinion, than Gauthier though.

I really don't want to see Burmistrov moved as part of a package to get more first rounders or move up in the first round. The draft remains a crapshoot outside of the top 3-4 who we aren't going to get our hands on anyway so moving a player that makes our other forwards better and plays well on the PK is not something I'm keen on. I can see other teams being interested in him so he could be good trade bait, but I don't yet believe that Burmi wants out of Winnipeg, especially based on ramblings of the local media. If he does want out legitimately and we could move him and #13 for Buffalo's two picks in the first as someone else suggested, then so be it but only providing it's Burmi that wants out himself. Then we give up a good piece of our present for the future, hopefully a Lindholm and one of the above listed.

 

[Guerzy]

Like Guerzy, I'm pretty high on Gauthier too. I readily admit he's a reach at 13 from some (many?) perspectives so I really just look at it as not bothering me if Chevy calls his name at #13. It's kind of a Scheifele-type of pick to me. I do know for sure that the scouts/management have a lot more information on these kids than I do and I think those interviews they do are really critical to whether they take a kid or not.

That said I'm pretty in line with what most other people are thinking outside of taking another D. Of course you can never have too many D in the pipeline but I think we just have too much of a pressing need for forwards to do that again this year with our first round pick.

Well said, Buggs. And, as much as I have went on about Gauthier, for me, if we take him at 13 great, if we don't, that's fine too. My intentions aren't to "sell everyone on him", I just think he's a fine pick. This appears to be a pretty good draft so I feel whoever management and the scouts decide upon, will be a pretty solid player.

 

[Flair Hay]

Gauthier is definitely growing on me. Not necessarily my favourite, but Guerzy's post makes quite a bit of sense.

Having too many centers definitely isn't a problem.

 

[truck]

Gauthier is definitely growing on me. Not necessarily my favourite, but Guerzy's post makes quite a bit of sense.

Having too many centers definitely isn't a problem.

I agree about not having too many centres and I pretty much always lean towards a centre over a winger if I think it is close.