Jesperi Kotkaniemi

[Finlandia WOAT]

Somewhat of a reach because he was a center while Zadina/Tkachuk were W's, the real misstep was then rushing him to the NHL.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I thought this lady was crazy but watching him the last couple of years have been painful. She was 100% correct at the time!

I mean, both could be true.

 

[Habby4Life]

I mean, both could be true.

Haha, thanks for the laugh.

 

[Just Linda]

Is progressing well defined as at or less points than your rookie season?

Also, age isn’t a linear curve to production and improvement. Kk doesn’t have ‘it’. As much as you want him to, he hasn’t shown that. Yet anyways. You’ll be lucky if he ever becomes a consistent 50 point player at this point.

I generally don't look at points, I look at impact. For prospects before the NHL, I look for players who's games are transferable to the NHL and players who are a step above their peers (or who have specific qualities that are above their peers). For players in the NHL I look at whether they are behind on skill or behind on pace, whether a lag is because of thinking, skill level, or maturity.

That being said, you are completely wrong on his 'it' factor. Perpetual 50pt guy is absolutely his floor not his ceiling, in a regular NHL season he's already good enough to be a 50pt player. The thing hindering his production right now isn't a lack of skill, it's a lack legs. He's processing the game while, he's got fantastic vision on the ice, he generally makes the right plays and goes where he needs to go. He's just behind on pace, which all things considered (he's 20) us not concerning in the slightest.

I don't see him becoming a point per game centre but his shot, passing, physicality, creativity, and vision are all going to make him into a 60pt top 6 centre.

 

[Heldig]

Bob McKenzie had Tkachuk third, Zadina fourth and Kotkeniemi fifth.
Kotkaniemi surges into top five of TSN Draft Ranking - TSN.ca

I was hoping against hope that Tkachuk fell to 5th. No such luck as a Coyotes fan. So they took the BPA (not).

 

[The90]

I generally don't look at points, I look at impact. For prospects before the NHL, I look for players who's games are transferable to the NHL and players who are a step above their peers (or who have specific qualities that are above their peers). For players in the NHL I look at whether they are behind on skill or behind on pace, whether a lag is because of thinking, skill level, or maturity.

That being said, you are completely wrong on his 'it' factor. Perpetual 50pt guy is absolutely his floor not his ceiling, in a regular NHL season he's already good enough to be a 50pt player. The thing hindering his production right now isn't a lack of skill, it's a lack legs. He's processing the game while, he's got fantastic vision on the ice, he generally makes the right plays and goes where he needs to go. He's just behind on pace, which all things considered (he's 20) us not concerning in the slightest.

I don't see him becoming a point per game centre but his shot, passing, physicality, creativity, and vision are all going to make him into a 60pt top 6 centre.

I’ll agree to disagree here. He’ll be a tweener 2/3c with a peak of 50-55 points in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong, not a bad player. But as a 3OA pick it leaves you wanting much more. Especially with Q Hughes and Tkachuk in the same draft.

 

[EK392000]

There’s another thread where someone said this guy’s value is on par with a top 10 pick.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Well Bergeron has averaged 65pts/82 games so far in his career, with the last few years pumping up his stats.
Suzuki is also a center, also very good defensively and on pace for 59pts over 82 games as a 21 yo 2nd year player.
It's not a comparaison I would make, but it's not ridiculous to consider him to have a similar future...

Ignoring the fact that you're trying to project that he will maintain that pace for a good...16 years or so, Bergeron is also a lot more than his points.

 

[jfhabs]

Ignoring the fact that you're trying to project that he will maintain that pace for a good...16 years or so, Bergeron is also a lot more than his points.

it is not a comparaison I would make....

 

[Beezeral]

I’m not one to judge guys too quickly I mean Barkov took awhile to become the superstar he is today, not saying that Kotkaniemi is the next Barkov, but I don’t think it’s all said and done with him just yet.

This comparison needs to end. In barkov’s draft +3 year he put up 59 points in 66 games. He’s put up better offensive numbers than KK in every one of their comparable NHL seasons with the gap widening each season

 

[HockeyWooot]

I think there’s still upside there as 1b or a 2 center. I don’t love his development track.

I think he’ll be okay over time.

 

[The Assclown]

He kinda reminds me of Matt Stajan with stronger skating abilities.

 

[Hostile Offer]

He's been really inconsistent this year, which isn't all too uncommon for such a young player, but he's showing progress. There's still some maturing for him to do physically and his decision making but both are a clear step ahead of where they were last year. Unfortunately right now even when he has a great game the pucks just don't bounce in. In his last 20 games he has an astonishing 3.79 oiSH%.

 

[Kezaster]

Montreal Canadiens Draft History at hockeydb.com

Their spotless post-lockout history of drafting their and growing their own talent is so amazing. I'd be shocked if they botched Kotkaniemi.(all of this is sarcasm).

But I'm sure that in such a fabled and legendary franchise with so many cups, it's fully the players fault.

 

[Sens]

Zibanejad before he turned 21
120G 23G 31A 54Pts
0.45ppg

Kotkanemi before he turns 21
169GP 22G 40A 62Pts
0.37ppg

you are looking at .08ppg difference between the two players before 21.

As a Sens fan, I hope Habs management makes the same mistake

 

[Spargon]

Montreal Canadiens Draft History at hockeydb.com

Their spotless post-lockout history of drafting their and growing their own talent is so amazing. I'd be shocked if they botched Kotkaniemi.(all of this is sarcasm).

But I'm sure that in such a fabled and legendary franchise with so many cups, it's fully the players fault.

That's an oof of a list.

 

[sandysan]

I don't understand why he was rushed. He had good stats in the Finnish league but not third overall stats. He should have spent a few years in Finland

you don't understand why a team that hasn't had a 1C for more than 2 decades and traded for jonathan drouin to PLAY center would be anxious to put a 3OA REAL center into the lineup ?

Really ?

Kotkaniemi at this pace ends up a good middle sixer with still top 3 potential. his improvement need not be linear.

 

[Patrik Barkov]

Somewhat of a reach because he was a center while Zadina/Tkachuk were W's, the real misstep was then rushing him to the NHL.

This. He played 2nd line WINGER his entire draft year in Liiga and they thought he was an NHL ready center??

 

[jfhabs]

Zibanejad before he turned 21
120G 23G 31A 54Pts
0.45ppg

Kotkanemi before he turns 21
169GP 22G 40A 62Pts
0.37ppg

you are looking at .08ppg difference between the two players before 21.

As a Sens fan, I hope Habs management makes the same mistake

I like the comparable. Both players had the skill but lacked the power to bring their game to the next level. Remains to be seen if KK can put in the work to do so.

 

[Cotton]

He was ranked around 10th and then suspiciously rose to like top 3 when no games were being played - likely due to the fact that the scouting agencies caught wind of who Habs were going to target.

That’s not how scouting works.

 

[sharks9]

He's only 6 months older than Caufield and it's not like Caufield has run out of time to improve.

Next year will be a big year for him though. 3 years of experience under his belt and hopefully a better coach that knows how to deploy him, there needs to be at least some progression offensively for me to have hope he'll be more than a middle-six center

 

[Vachon23]

The problem like many said is that he was rush way to early. He should have played the 2018-19 season in Finlande and dominate the league and the WJC to grow his offense confidence. He was clearly not ready physically

 

[NHLcrazy]

He's only 6 months older than Caufield and it's not like Caufield has run out of time to improve.

That the whole point people are missing. He is very very young... had 34pts 2 years ago! He'll be fine.

 

[Wats]

If he's lucky he'll be traded before he gets completely ruined.

 

[BLNY]

I won't read through 4 pages because I know the path of the thread. Some things to keep in mind:

1. KK is still only 20.
2. For whatever reason, he doesn't get nearly as long a leash as Suzuki.
3. He's routinely pigeon-holed with offensive black holes like Lehkonen and Armia.
4. When he does get a few games worth with the teams better offensive talent not only does he produce, but so do they.
5. When he has received first unit pp time he has produced.

The best thing that could happen for him is for the team to let Danault walk. He's a crutch for the coaches. KK needs to be given a full year with offensive talent and not be threatened with getting pushed down the lineup on what are nothing more than whims. This "sheltering" tactic is not unique to the Bergevin era and it's completely counter productive to actually developing the player.