old kummelweck
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- Nov 10, 2003
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Yep, it seems like teams have a hard enough time planning for the modest rookie bonuses.
Player Discussion Jeff Skinner -- Part 3 -- Closing in on a deal (per McKenzie)
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I am actually very curious as to what the hold up is at this point.
Most fans seem to be anxious about it.
It's been announced by several prominent Canadian media as being close to a done deal.
As much as I don't agree with the deal on several levels, the delay between Canadian media saying its close and an actual announcement is typically a number of hours, not several days. Curious if there is a hangup on the structure of the deal or maybe Skinner himself is having cold feet.
Most fans seem to be anxious about it.
It's been announced by several prominent Canadian media as being close to a done deal.
As much as I don't agree with the deal on several levels, the delay between Canadian media saying its close and an actual announcement is typically a number of hours, not several days. Curious if there is a hangup on the structure of the deal or maybe Skinner himself is having cold feet.
Mattilaus
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The league has somewhat of an unwritten rule about big deals being announced during the cup final. They don't like them as it takes attention away from the final. I am not saying this IS the reason, but they could just be waiting till the final is over before announcing it.
Genny Screamer
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I was going to suggest that. Do you think they will have a press conference? It would be nice to hear Kreuger's thoughts on the deal in a live forum. The Sabres can benefit from some positive press although I'm sure somebody will spin it into a negative.
old kummelweck
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DatGuy
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Taylor Halls Teeth
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Second in league scoring that year and a scoring title the year before, plus a power forward and scoring is up 10% today from those years. You would not have any choice but to make him one of the top paid guys in the league or trade him away and who trades that production away at 26? And then he never matches the 25 and 26 year old seasons again. Really only one of his last three seasons has been close to what they thought they were buying. A cautionary tale when a team is going all in on 63 point max player.
Djp
Registered User
You can do bonus based contracts for 35+ players. Extra cap use above the max 1.075 of cap to absorb ELC bonus snd ltir gets rolled over to next year.
9 mil for 63 points (keep in mind scoring is up 10% so that would equal 56 points two years ago) is absolutely insane.
Aladyyn
they praying for the death of a rockstar
DatGuy
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They are paying for 40 goals not 63 points. 13 players had 40 or more and 8 of 13 of them make over 9 mil a year.
Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
This is once in his career. Paying for 1 year performance (without playoffs) is not how one should be approaching contract extensions.
Aladyyn
they praying for the death of a rockstar
I don't know how people can be so against analytics for whatever reason and then turn around and be like "omg he only scored 63 points why are you paying him"
Mattilaus
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Ya I very clearly said big deals. AHL transactions aren't going to distract people from the finals.
He's averaged 30 goals per 82 games over his career. Prior to this season he's topped 30 goals in 3 different seasons, with a previous career high of 37 (as a winger, playing with bad centers).
40 goals in not an outlier for him.
I'm ok with a slight overpayment of 9m per season to keep him around.
Snippit
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I don't think there's any question it's an overpay if it's 9M. I'm one that recognizes he's an elite 5v5 scorer but goal scoring is really just one aspect of hockey. He's not a good passer, he's pretty mediocre in transition and below average defensively. He has been fed 60-70% OZS (in all situations, > 70% at times) throughout his career too.
I would sign him at that money just because the alternative of losing him for nothing is too crippling to the team. But make no mistake, that's an over pay, even when you take the rising cap into consideration - Mark Stone signed for 9.5M (the only big money pending UFA that signed through 2019-20, so the only current comparable).
2018-19
Stone: 5v5 p/60: 2.23, 5v5 p1/60 1.81 5v5 OZS 49.9%
Skinner: 5v5 p/60 2.08, 5v5 p1/60 1.88 5v5 OZS 66.3%
2017-18
Stone: 5v5 p/60: 2.68, 5v5 p1/60 1.93 5v5 OZS 52.8%
Skinner: 5v5 p/60 1.79, 5v5 p1/60 1.42 5v5 OZS 64%
So Stone is a superior offensive producer, who starts much less in the offensive zone, and is in a different league defensively. So Stone @ 9.5M should tell you Skinner is probably worth at least 1.5M-2M less than that.
Like I said, letting Skinner go isn't an option. But let's not pretend that giving him 9Mx8 isn't an overpayment - it absolutely would be.
I would sign him at that money just because the alternative of losing him for nothing is too crippling to the team. But make no mistake, that's an over pay, even when you take the rising cap into consideration - Mark Stone signed for 9.5M (the only big money pending UFA that signed through 2019-20, so the only current comparable).
2018-19
Stone: 5v5 p/60: 2.23, 5v5 p1/60 1.81 5v5 OZS 49.9%
Skinner: 5v5 p/60 2.08, 5v5 p1/60 1.88 5v5 OZS 66.3%
2017-18
Stone: 5v5 p/60: 2.68, 5v5 p1/60 1.93 5v5 OZS 52.8%
Skinner: 5v5 p/60 1.79, 5v5 p1/60 1.42 5v5 OZS 64%
So Stone is a superior offensive producer, who starts much less in the offensive zone, and is in a different league defensively. So Stone @ 9.5M should tell you Skinner is probably worth at least 1.5M-2M less than that.
Like I said, letting Skinner go isn't an option. But let's not pretend that giving him 9Mx8 isn't an overpayment - it absolutely would be.
TheMistyStranger
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With Pominville, Berglund, and Moulson off the books, giving Skinner a 3.25m raise after a career year, ensuring he’s around when Eichel / Sam / Dahlin hit their prime...it’s steep, but it makes too much sense not to do.
Even when the guy wasn’t scoring, I never questioned his effort on the ice. He was getting quality scoring chances throughout the year. Adding a top 6 forward in Olofsson and hopefully another via UFA / Trade should make Skinner more dangerous next season, when teams can’t key in on him as much.
Even when the guy wasn’t scoring, I never questioned his effort on the ice. He was getting quality scoring chances throughout the year. Adding a top 6 forward in Olofsson and hopefully another via UFA / Trade should make Skinner more dangerous next season, when teams can’t key in on him as much.
Aladyyn
they praying for the death of a rockstar
tsujimoto74
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Stone is also in a market with no state income tax. I tend to think the impact of that gets overblown on HF, in general, but seeing Kucherov and Stone both at $9.5M makes me think it does have some effect on negotiations.
Like Aladdyn says, Mark Stone is worth more than 9.5, and being a winning organization in a state without income tax ( I think ) helps that out.
But to the bold, there's not a single poster in this thread arguing to keep Skinner that hasn't understood this and accepted it. Even though a few posters have played with percentages to mess around like they do think it's a perfect deal, in the face of people who use his lack of secondary assists against him. I'd argue that people already deliberated, understood, and came to this conclusion before the calendar year 2019. I'm not sure why it's getting tossed around (not by you) in a manner that suggests if we only understood that it was an overpayment, we'd not want to give it to him. We understand that it'd be nicer to have Jeff on Evander Kane's contract, and that going above that is worth avoiding what would happen to this roster if Skinner were to leave.
old kummelweck
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I did a little digging when this was being argued back and forth the other day and it appeared the difference between NY and a state with no income tax (I can't remember if I checked FL or AZ) was like $800K a year on $9/mil annually. Of course, that was salary and no deductions. States like NH, FL, and AZ tend to get the revenue out of you in other ways like local real estate taxes and 'fees', but that's usually just relevant to an average joe and would never been in the range of that much state tax.
All that said, why the hell would any hockey player sign in Canada then? So your point about overblown may be true.
Yea and 9 of the 13 had over a ppg and Skinner easily had the least amount of points out of all of them because it's rare for someone who is that good of a goal scorer to be that one dimensional of an offensive player. People's obsession over goal scoring as opposed to overall offense generated doesn't make sense to me.
Aladyyn
they praying for the death of a rockstar
People's obsession over point totals as opposed to overall impact on the game doesn't make sense to me.
You really want to talk about skinners tenacious backcheck? Or his intimidating forecheck? Or his great elite playmaking skills
He is a great goal scorer. You’ve shown that
You are picking and choosing stats that support your point and ignoring skinners flaws. A player you are paying like a top 20 nhler should have less warts on their game. The assist total is speaks to him not creating much offense for his teammates. The high zone starts speak to coaches not trusting his commitment in his own zone. But when people bring up his low point totals you berate them for looking at the numbers.
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