Jeff Skinner HOF

[seventieslord]

For starters, I'm not advocating Jeff Skinner gets into the HOF. But the HOF has shown that they love career totals without context, and certain goal milestones apparently make you automatic. I'm creating this thread to warn you all that "Jeff Skinner HOF" talk may start in just a few short years.

Sure, a lot has to go right for him. But he is just 31 (!!!) years old and has somehow compiled 350 goals, which is the 8th highest total since he entered the league. He goes hot and cold, but he just had two very good seasons, scoring is going up and he's on a supposedly emerging Buffalo team with a contract that pays him for three more seasons and virtually ensures he will continue to get prime scoring opportunities.

I think he's a lock to get 500 goals. There may even be a universe in which he flirts with 600. It's within the realm of possibility that he puts up 40 in each of the next two seasons and has 450 when he turns 34. What if he ages like Ray Whitney? or Joe Pavelski? Couldn't he average 25 goals a year for ten more years?

I mean he will never have a HOF skill set (poor defensively, softish) and won't have a HOF career (zero playoff games to date). He will likely never even have a HOF point total, but that's a HOF goal total he could reach, and who knows if that is all it would take for some people. He's never even been known as one of the game's best goal scorers, one sixth place finish in 2017 notwithstanding. But we might one day be saying he and Stamkos are the only 550 goal scorers between Crosby and McDavid

Scary, hey?

Click to read more...

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

It's harder to age well when you're a worse player. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends in the mid 400s.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Look, you've done a lot for this board over the years. So I mean this with the utmost respect: Go to hell.

...

I see the math...but I don't think he plays very long. You mentioned the wizard and Pavs...those are serious guys with adaptability. If this was his last contract...or this plus a single farewell tour year as a PP specialist...I wouldn't be surprised.

I don't think he hits 500...but that's not based totally on logic, it's mostly based on irrationally upset I am by the thread title...

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

You're better than this

 

[chaosrevolver]

You're better than this

He is kinda not wrong tho. It isn't likely, but if hes around that 500 goal mark, itll be brought up for sure. (I think he will certainly get over 400...maybe close to 450, but not sure I see him hitting 500).

 

[Calderon]

I understand where the OP is coming from but if I zoom out a little bit I get a good chuckle out of being worried in advance that a player will end up with very good career totals and hence be awarded with a distinction that's reserved for very very good careers.

 

[MadLuke]

It's within the realm of possibility that he puts up 40 in each of the next two seasons

He scored 40 once and seem on pace for~ 27 this year and will turned 30 for a while by then.

That seem early panic to me, since he entered the league he is only #40 in points, has played litteraly 0 playoff game in his career, spend a lot of time far from the spotlight market wise, only the world when he was very young for team Canada, no world juniors, single Top 10 in goals, none in points, nothing outside the Calder to speak of....

Would need to age incredibly well and to Buffalo to start winning fast.

One way to put it, since Skinner entered the league Matt Duchene scored almost 100 more points and Pacioretty was a better goal scorer.

 

[Terry Yake]

his style of play isn't exactly "bruising" or particularly hard on the body, so i could see him playing for quite a while. HOF isn't happening unless he channels his inner pavelski and ages backwards, but he could end up compiling some nice numbers when it's all said and done

can't believe he's only turning 32 this year. seems like he's been around forever

 

[Felidae]

On an unrelated note. Skinner's rookie season is pretty impressive. He has the 11th highest point totals by an 18 year old, and 7 of the players ahead of him played in the 1980s.. so he has the 4th highest point total of an 18 year old this century behind Mackinnon, Crosby and Laine! 2 future HHOFers and one of the greatest goalscoring starts to a career.

Oddly, seems like Skinner's rookie season is basically what he's ended up being his entire career.. his goalscoring rate increased some years with a few top 10 goal finishes but his production stayed the same. Never passed 63 points outside of his 2022-23 year where he was above a PPG, which really has more to do with scoring environment than anything. Was good for 28th in points. His 2 other 63 point seasons he was 32nd and 38th in scoring. Not a huge difference at all. Goes to show a great start doesn't necessarily mean greater things are to come..


Anyways, a tangent no one asked for. Back to the actual topic.. I never thought in a million years the words Skinner and HOF together. He'd be an even worse induction than Andreychuk, and that's saying something.

 

[sr edler]

For all the talk about this Buffalo team being emerging, I think as long as they keep deploying Skinner as any type of serious centre piece (meaning 1st line duties, 1st PP duties), they're going to keep struggle, or just keep treading very mediocre waters. As has been noted up thread he's bad defensively, easy to push around, fairly inconsistent (meaning disappearance acts), and I would add just the prototypical bad team scorer.

There was a blip somewhere around the middle of this season where Jack Quinn came back from injury (before re-injuring himself) where that team actually started to look semi-serious again, but it was a fairly short sequence.

I read somewhere, might have been on this board, that the first thing Brind'Amour did when he took over Carolina was getting rid of Skinner. I don't know how much of that is true, but it sounds true, and it seems to make a lot of sense.

There was also some thread here (on HOH) not long ago talking about the player with the most RS games and no playoffs, and I think someone said he could be traded to a contender (why would a contender want Skinner) or something (a better team I guess), but I think Skinner actually nixed a move away from Buffalo during the Krueger days (when he was in veritable dog-house) because Buffalo is so close to his hometown Toronto. So that seems to be what we're dealing with here.

 

[decma]

For all the talk about this Buffalo team being emerging, I think as long as they keep deploying Skinner as any type of serious centre piece (meaning 1st line duties, 1st PP duties), they're going to keep struggle, or just keep treading very mediocre waters. As has been noted up thread he's bad defensively, easy to push around, fairly inconsistent (meaning disappearance acts), and I would add just the prototypical bad team scorer.

I think their whole "first" line in the problem.
Thompson has been much worse at even strength than Skinner, and Tuch not much better.
(the new seeming favorite of their fanbase and coaching staff, Greenway, has been even worse)

Re the original topic, I don't think Skinner gets 500 goals.

 

[buffalowing88]

The Sabres overreacted way too much to a hot stretch that didn't even become a playoff berth last year and extended Thompson, Cozens, and Power to some really eyebrow-raising terms. They learned nothing from doing the same with Skinner and are stuck at that slightly below-average tier for the foreseeable future.

Skinner is obviously not a HOFer. As long as he's on the Sabres he's going to remain without any playoff resume whatsoever. No one gets into the HOF without having played a single playoff game.

 

[MadLuke]

He'd be an even worse induction than Andreychuk

That the obvious name people will have in mind (buffalo, scorer, etc...)

After 14 first seasons Andreychuck already had over a 1000 pts, he was #15 in points since he entered the league (versus 40 for Skinner), while being 8th in goals like him, he was extremely on the radar of future voters on the peak Burns mustache Leafs squads of 93&94, it was a big deal when he got on the Devils at the trade dateline and so on.

He has a good advance in HOF points and obviously aged extremely well, staying a very relevant NHL after turning 40, 20 goals seasons in the deepest of the dpe and winning the cup playing 19 minutes a night.

 

[overpass]

Scary, indeed.

It would help if he could carve out a more regular role as a finisher on the power play in his 30s. But I suspect that's another area where you want to do better than Jeff Skinner if you want to be a contender.

You never know. I remember a friend suggested Chris Osgood as a future hall of famer in the early 00s, and it sounded crazy at the time. And now we get articles every year arguing he deserves to be in.

 

[Terry Yake]

The Sabres overreacted way too much to a hot stretch that didn't even become a playoff berth last year and extended Thompson, Cozens, and Power to some really eyebrow-raising terms. They learned nothing from doing the same with Skinner and are stuck at that slightly below-average tier for the foreseeable future.

Skinner is obviously not a HOFer. As long as he's on the Sabres he's going to remain without any playoff resume whatsoever. No one gets into the HOF without having played a single playoff game.

canes missed the playoffs in every season skinner was there, and have made it in every season since skinner's been gone. obviously he wasn't the reason for them not making it, nor his absence the reason for them becoming contenders, but still must hurt

 

[Dissonance Jr]

I’d be pretty shocked if Skinner comes anywhere close to scoring 500.

Two recent comparisons I can think of are Corey Perry and Phil Kessel, who both also had ~350 goals at the end of their 31-year-old seasons. Both aged relatively gracefully but still fell off fast. Neither is likely to break 450 before they retire.

That said, it’s true that there’s always the Pavelski paradox to worry about….

 

[sr edler]

I think their whole "first" line in the problem.
Thompson has been much worse at even strength than Skinner, and Tuch not much better.
(the new seeming favorite of their fanbase and coaching staff, Greenway, has been even worse)

This is a conclusion one can only reach through surface stat watching. Tuch brings stuff outside of scoring, he's an elite fore-checker and someone you can throw on a PK, and brings some decent physicality as well (in a modern perspective). Even Thompson was a big part of the Sabres PK early in the season when it was the only thing that worked for the team. Last season Skinner was clearly the 3rd wheel on that line in terms of overall importance.

 

[sr edler]

Skinner doesn't remind me of Pavelski at all, he reminds me of a Valeri Bure or a Olli Jokinen, or that koala bear in that YT video who cries after being pushed down a tree by another koala bear.

obviously he wasn't the reason for them not making it, nor his absence the reason for them becoming contenders

Of course he plays a part in this equation. Not the sole part, but a fairly substantial part.

Sabres' leading veterans at the moment are Skinner and Okposo. Look at these guys' career track records in terms of overall winning pedigree.

 

[decma]

This is a conclusion one can only reach through surface stat watching. Tuch brings stuff outside of scoring, he's an elite fore-checker and someone you can throw on a PK, and brings some decent physicality as well (in a modern perspective). Even Thompson was a big part of the Sabres PK early in the season when it was the only thing that worked for the team. Last season Skinner was clearly the 3rd wheel on that line in terms of overall importance.

Sorry if I wasn't clear - my statement was about who has been better at ES this season. Even if TT was good at SH or if Skinner was the worst of the three last season, TT has been the worst of the three at ES this season.

 

[sr edler]

Sorry if I wasn't clear - my statement was about who has been better at ES this season. Even if TT was good at SH or if Skinner was the worst of the three last season, TT has been the worst of the three at ES this season.

Sure Thompson's been underwhelming for parts of the season, but he's also been injured twice and has still shown glimpses of higher ceiling. That said, Thompson's still also a bit suspect on D and things, but he looks to be able to learn and is younger and probably not as much of a lot cause, if that makes sense.

 

[wetcoast]

Look, you've done a lot for this board over the years. So I mean this with the utmost respect: Go to hell.

...

I see the math...but I don't think he plays very long. You mentioned the wizard and Pavs...those are serious guys with adaptability. If this was his last contract...or this plus a single farewell tour year as a PP specialist...I wouldn't be surprised.

I don't think he hits 500...but that's not based totally on logic, it's mostly based on irrationally upset I am by the thread title...

Ya my first response in seeing the thread was what Sabers fan is here then I checked the calendar it's not April 1st.

I mean he is 31 and having a really meh year what the hell is going on?

I ask this respectfully.

If the OP was talking about Joe Pavelski sure I'm open to that argument....

 

[ForsbergForever]

I’d be pretty shocked if Skinner comes anywhere close to scoring 500.

Two recent comparisons I can think of are Corey Perry and Phil Kessel, who both also had ~350 goals at the end of their 31-year-old seasons and who both aged about as gracefully as one could hope for after that. Neither is likely to break 450 before they retire.

That said, it’s true that there’s always the Pavelski paradox to worry about….

Perry and Kessel both fell off a cliff performance wise, idk what you're talking about as far as them aging gracefully. Perry's production nosedived when he turned 32, and Kessel was never close to the same after being traded out of Pittsburgh also at age 32.

 

[Voight]

For starters, I'm not advocating Jeff Skinner gets into the HOF. But the HOF has shown that they love career totals without context, and certain goal milestones apparently make you automatic. I'm creating this thread to warn you all that "Jeff Skinner HOF" talk may start in just a few short years.

Sure, a lot has to go right for him. But he is just 31 (!!!) years old and has somehow compiled 350 goals, which is the 8th highest total since he entered the league. He goes hot and cold, but he just had two very good seasons, scoring is going up and he's on a supposedly emerging Buffalo team with a contract that pays him for three more seasons and virtually ensures he will continue to get prime scoring opportunities.

I think he's a lock to get 500 goals. There may even be a universe in which he flirts with 600. It's within the realm of possibility that he puts up 40 in each of the next two seasons and has 450 when he turns 34. What if he ages like Ray Whitney? or Joe Pavelski? Couldn't he average 25 goals a year for ten more years?

I mean he will never have a HOF skill set (poor defensively, softish) and won't have a HOF career (zero playoff games to date). He will likely never even have a HOF point total, but that's a HOF goal total he could reach, and who knows if that is all it would take for some people. He's never even been known as one of the game's best goal scorers, one sixth place finish in 2017 notwithstanding. But we might one day be saying he and Stamkos are the only 550 goal scorers between Crosby and McDavid

Scary, hey?

Benefit of making the league when you're 18

canes missed the playoffs in every season skinner was there, and have made it in every season since skinner's been gone. obviously he wasn't the reason for them not making it, nor his absence the reason for them becoming contenders, but still must hurt

Assuming the Sabres miss the playoffs this year, he'll have played over 1000 regular season games with zero playoff games.

 

[Dissonance Jr]

Perry and Kessel both fell off a cliff performance wise, idk what you're talking about as far as them aging gracefully. Perry's production nosedived when he turned 32, and Kessel was never close to the same after being traded out of Pittsburgh also at age 32.

Maybe I didn’t phrase it well but was sorta my point—players tend to fall off a cliff pretty quickly after 31-32. I suspect the Kessel/Perry trajectory is the more likely outcome for Skinner.

 

[sr edler]

Kessel and Perry were both substantially better than Skinner and pulled heavier ballast on their respective primary teams, thus also realistically drawing more long-term fatigue as high-end difference makers. Not saying it will happen, because big chance is it won't, but I wouldn't be too surprised if someone like Skinner aged statistically well, in the sense of finding ways to either stay on Buffalo's 1st line (hopefully for Buff fans this won't happen) or on other 1st lines when the league eventually expands to cities like Wichita and Omaha in the next two–three years.