Salary Cap: Jason Robertson's Contract

[BG44]

Matthew DeFranks did the legwork on the comparables, and here is his article:



Long-Term Comparisons:
Mitch Marner: $10.893 million X 6 years
Mikko Rantanen: $9.25 million X 6 years
Kirill Kaprizov: $9 million X 5 years
Brady Tkachuk: $8.206 million X 7 years
Andrei Svechnikov: $7.75 million x 8 years
Kyle Connor: $7.143 million X 7 years
Clayton Keller: $7.15 million X 8 years

3 Year Bridge Deal Comparisons:
Elias Pettersson: $7.35 million
Mathew Barzal: $7 million
Matthew Tkachuk: $7 million
Brayden Point: $6.75 million
Alex DeBrincat: $6.4 million
Brock Boeser: $5.875 million

This is going to have a pretty significant impact on what Dallas is able to do over the summer. Seems like it's probably worth its own discussion.

Click to read more...

 

[Satan]

Andrei Svechnikov: $7.75 million x 8 years


#8MoreYears

 

[BG44]

Andrei Svechnikov: $7.75 million x 8 years


#8MoreYears

If it's 8, I think you're talking a similar AAV as Tkachuk even though his deal is 7 years, and it's not out of the question that it's closer to $9 or even over $9. Most of Dallas' long-term deals do seem to get the tax-free bump and typically a little lower average than expected.

 

[Satan]

If it's 8, I think you're talking a similar AAV as Tkachuk even though his deal is 7 years, and it's not out of the question that it's closer to $9 or even over $9. Most of Dallas' long-term deals do seem to get the tax-free bump and typically a little lower average than expected.

i am okay with paying the man for his prime hockej years

 

[BG44]

i am okay with paying the man for his prime hockej years

I don't disagree with that, but I also could see value for Robertson and the team to go with a bridge. I'd honestly be happy with either.

 

[LT]

Just make it 8 years, whatever it takes. Anything under 10M will be a blessing.

 

[BG44]

Let's say Robertson is paid between $7 and $9 million (low end = bridge/high end = max). Oettinger is going to get between $3 and $4 million based on recent contracts to Nedjelkovic and Hart. That gives Dallas between $15 to $18 million in cap space.

 

[BG44]

You'd have $15 to $18 million for 5 forwards and 1 D. If you buy out Khudobin, you gain $2.5 million in cap space (you ought to do that probably). If you plan on burying Khudobin in the AHL again, you gain $1.125 million in cap space.

 

[Satan]

I don't disagree with that, but I also could see value for Robertson and the team to go with a bridge. I'd honestly be happy with either.

you bridge him and then on contract #2 you pay him into his 30s, not ideal

i sign jrob for 8 years, watch him walk away as a proud father after that

 

[BG44]

Chris Greer has Robertson coming in at $8.25 to $9.25 on a max deal. Mike McKenna thinks because of the tax situation in Texas, Robertson will be on the lower end of $8 million rather than closer to $9 million.

 

[Troy McClure]

Not one of those bridge deals comes close to what he'd get paid on a bridge.

 

[Satan]

For what it's worth I'm also on team Oettinger 8 years

 

[BG44]

Not one of those bridge deals comes close to what he'd get paid on a bridge.

How so? They're all about $7 million, and it would only be RFA years. The long-term deals that are direct comparables are all-around $9 million. He's not going to get $9 million on a short-term deal. It's unprecedented. Maybe he gets closer to $8 million which would still be setting a new precedent, but I would absolutely describe that as close to those bridge comparables, especially when you consider he's been a better goal scorer than some of them. Your wording it as if we'd be talking about multi-million dollars in differences when the reality it's several hundred thousand to a million AAV.

 

[BG44]

For what it's worth I'm also on team Oettinger 8 years

Shesterkin had only 2 years remaining as a RFA, and he gave up 2 years as a UFA. His total cap hit is $5,666,667 with $9 million paid the RFA years and $13,666,667 paid the UFA years.

Hart and Oettinger are actually only 4 months apart even though Hart was 2016 draft-eligible. There's a significant part of me that wants to say there's virtually no chance Oettinger gets less than Hart's $3,979,000 for 3 years, especially if Oettinger can win a round in the playoffs .. or more. As you'd expect, Hart's deal is back-loaded, and his QO would only be $4.479 since that's less than 120% of the AAV.

Just trying to build around those 2 ... you're probably looking at a 6-year deal costing about $30 million or an AAV of $5. If you're going max though ... now we really don't have comparable but for argument's sake, you're probably taking $45 million or an AAV of $5.625.

If you're choosing between $4 on a 3-year deal or $5 to closer to $6 on a 6 to 8-year deal, financially I could see the argument. Goalies don't develop in a linear or stable line typically so I could also just as easily see the side for playing it safe and sticking with a contract like Hart's.

I think this is at least a reasonable representation of what a longer deal would potentially look like based on the 2 best comparables.

 

[Satan]

Shesterkin had only 2 years remaining as a RFA, and he gave up 2 years as a UFA. His total cap hit is $5,666,667 with $9 million paid the RFA years and $13,666,667 paid the UFA years.

Hart and Oettinger are actually only 4 months apart even though Hart was 2016 draft-eligible. There's a significant part of me that wants to say there's virtually no chance Oettinger gets less than Hart's $3,979,000 for 3 years, especially if Oettinger can win a round in the playoffs .. or more. As you'd expect, Hart's deal is back-loaded, and his QO would only be $4.479 since that's less than 120% of the AAV.

Just trying to build around those 2 ... you're probably looking at a 6-year deal costing about $30 million or an AAV of $5. If you're going max though ... now we really don't have comparable but for argument's sake, you're probably taking $45 million or an AAV of $5.625.

If you're choosing between $4 on a 3-year deal or $5 to closer to $6 on a 6 to 8-year deal, financially I could see the argument. Goalies don't develop in a linear or stable line typically so I could also just as easily see the side for playing it safe and sticking with a contract like Hart's.

I think this is at least a reasonable representation of what a longer deal would potentially look like based on the 2 best comparables.

I have Oettinger pegged at 5.5Mx8

 

[BG44]

I have Oettinger pegged at 5.5Mx8

I didn't know he was into that, but the contract looks reasonable.

 

[Satan]

I didn't know he was into that, but the contract looks reasonable.

assault

 

[Captain Awesome]

How so? They're all about $7 million, and it would only be RFA years. The long-term deals that are direct comparables are all-around $9 million. He's not going to get $9 million on a short-term deal. It's unprecedented. Maybe he gets closer to $8 million which would still be setting a new precedent, but I would absolutely describe that as close to those bridge comparables, especially when you consider he's been a better goal scorer than some of them. Your wording it as if we'd be talking about multi-million dollars in differences when the reality it's several hundred thousand to a million AAV.

So, not quite the same because he took a slightly longer deal, but Kaprizov got $9Mx5 just last summer, and the two are constantly getting compared to each other. Not a perfect comparable, but very recent for a player with a similar production profile (though Kaprizov has actually produced more). Also Robertson has now done it over two seasons, while Kaprizov only did it for last season before signing. I don't think Robertson pushes as hard as Kaprizov does, so I could see ~$8M on a bridge, and closer to $9-$9.5M on a max term deal. I'm pretty scared that Robertson has a lot more upside to give and see no reason to save money for the next 3 years, so I think I'd prefer to pay him his money now than have to worry about a $11Mx8 deal a few years from now.

Edit: Also forgot to mention that I am very afraid of any goalie deal longer than 5 years, and even then I'm pretty squeamish. Goalies are too random, and Oettinger has way too small of a track record to be worth going 8 years on. I still remember the cap hell we were in with Lehtonen, it was before the cap hell we got into with Seguin and Benn.

 

[BG44]

Those are not comparable situations. When we're talking short-term bridge deals, we're talking RFA years only. Kaprizov's includes 2 years of unrestricted free agency. It's important to compare apples to apples. The fact that they're tied together because of the Calder race doesn't mean short-term deals would be the same when 1 is 2 years older than the other.

 

[BG44]

Also ... just for argument's sake ... Minnesota did a bit of a unique salary structure where it's not front-loaded or back-loaded. The best way to use him as a comparison would be to say he's paid about $7.5 million on average the 3 lowest years of the deal itself which puts him right in line with every other forward we're talking about on an RFA bridge deal. Every other forward though that we're talking about still has RFA status after that deal ends where Kaprizov's goes straight in to some UFA years that makes it not the most ideal thing for comparison. Those later RFA years would tend to be higher especially when you consider QOs and what not for the other guys.

 

[Captain Awesome]

Those are not comparable situations. When we're talking short-term bridge deals, we're talking RFA years only. Kaprizov's includes 2 years of unrestricted free agency. It's important to compare apples to apples. The fact that they're tied together because of the Calder race doesn't mean short-term deals would be the same when 1 is 2 years older than the other.

Doh, I forgot how old Kaprizov is. FWIW his salary (with no signing bonuses) for the 5 years are: 5, 10, 12.5, 10, 7.5. NMC kicks in during the first UFA year. His RFA years average out to $9.17M, though I'm sure it would have cost them less to only go to RFA.

Here's a list I generated, it's pretty much exactly your comparables list. I actually cut a name off the list, bonus points if anyone can figure it out, he's a Dallas Star but doesn't really fit the discussion as the only UFA here.

I would say the absolute closest comparable is Debrincat. Debrincat had a 41 goal season right before signing his, but did not produce at the level of Robertson, 128 points in 164 games. 41-35-76 in 82 games in his contract year. It'll be nearly 3 years old as a comparable by the time Robertson's contract kicks in, and Robertson currently has 100 points in 101 games, for a significantly better PPG. I like it because Debrincat scored a ton, and so does Robertson, they also both play wing, are maybe looking at a 3 year deal, and will be the same age.

Pettersson might be the most interesting comparable. His production is pretty close to Robertson's point per game, but he was injured in his contract year and only played 26 games. In all honesty, he might be the best argument Nill has for something in the $7M range.

In a vacuum, though, Robertson is having an over a point a game season, is basically dragging this team to victory, and does it all offensively while having a solid defensive game. RFA deals seem to have increased, and I don't think any of the comparables have as impressive of a production profile as he does. It makes him hard to value, but I'd bet he's close to $8M, even on a bridge deal at this point.

 

[Johno]

I think looking at Robertson, the 3 year bridge would be between 8,3-9% of the cap. As per the comparables and leads to roughly $6.85-7.45mil range, which would be fair. And I think, if we are looking to stay anywhere near competitive for the next couple of years, that's the way to go. Unless something dramatic goes down.

 

[Johno]

...
In a vacuum, though, Robertson is having an over a point a game season, is basically dragging this team to victory, and does it all offensively while having a solid defensive game. RFA deals seem to have increased, and I don't think any of the comparables have as impressive of a production profile as he does. It makes him hard to value, but I'd bet he's close to $8M, even on a bridge deal at this point.

Brayden Point signed right after his 92p season. So there's that. Sure his on the Tampa with their numbing juice for taking lower contracts, but he still falls into the right category of comparable contracts; 8.28% of the cap, lower end but he is right there.

edit: last two years of his ELC, Point had 158p in 161gp.

 

[Captain Awesome]

Brayden Point signed right after his 92p season. So there's that. Sure his on the Tampa with their numbing juice for taking lower contracts, but he still falls into the right category of comparable contracts; 8.28% of the cap, lower end but he is right there.

edit: last two years of his ELC, Point had 158p in 161gp.

That's an interesting one, but I will simply say that Jim Nill is no Steve Yzerman, the Lightning have consistently gotten incredible value for every contract signed,. especially because there were cups at stake. The players on that team were all in on shaving millions off their contracts to win championships. Dallas just doesn't have that. They've paid pretty much every star player market value or close with the exception of Klingberg. I could see Nill easily going $1M over what Yzerman could, despite nearly identical tax situations.

I'm kinda curious about why people would want a bridge contract for Robertson in the first place. Realistically, signing Hintz and Robertson to big raises is going to make the team worse. They'll be even more squeezed than they are now, and it will lead to less depth. Give me Robertson for 8 years to keep the price down in year 5-8 so when Seguin and Benn come off the cap they can make some moves to really restructure the team, or just keep the players from the drafts if they turn out really well.

Saving $2-$3M per year isn't going to change much over the next few years, especially if Nill is using it to sign some more Luke Glendenings or Andrej Sekeras. It also opens up the possibility for Robertson to use arbitration to force his way to UFA, or ask for another short-term deal to test the market and make a fortune.

Also, hypothetically, paying Robertson from ages 25-33 for $11-$12M/yr is much less attractive than $8.5-$9.5M from ages 22-30. I'm just guesstimating the numbers here, so obviously you can change them up however you'd like, but I don't think he's a player I'd like to play contract chicken with, just give him his term now and do your best to improve the team when the cap allows.

 

[Sports2]

Give ‘em the Miro contract and call it a day.