James Reimer's Arbitration Case

[StuckOutHere]

Just curious what people are expecting from James Reimer and his potential arbitration hearing.

I'm not sure if I'm a minority voice in this, but I think Reimer has a huge advantage in getting to a hearing versus what the Leafs value him at. For example: here are our two goaltenders.

Reimer - 140 gp - 65-48-15 .914 pct 2.85 gaa
Bernier - 117 gp - 55-39-13 .918 pct 2.51 gaa

Seeing as most enlightened folks understand the best indicator of goaltending performance is save pct, Reimer has every right to go into arbitration not just asking for Bernier money, but a little more. He has played more games (experience does play a role in arbitration hearings, especially for goalies) and their numbers are pretty much identical. I understand the concept of "platform years", but I think they apply less to goalies due to the unique nature of their usage compared to skaters. Add in Reimer's .923 save pct in playoffs and his shots per game and this gets even cloudier.

With that being said, what do you guys think Reimer asks for? Where do you think the Leafs go? What would the result of a hearing be? Will they get to a hearing?

Reimer's ask - $3.2M/1yr
Leaf's counter - $2.5M/1yr
Hearing result - $3M/1yr

Crazy, but I think Reimer ends up being our highest paid goalie this year.

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[ACC1224]

Won't last years stats have a greater impact than his career stats?

 

[SprDaVE]

It's not about the role or even how "bad" he was at times. It's strictly about the numbers in arbitration and comparisons. I think he will get between 3M and 4M for sure.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Won't last years stats have a greater impact than his career stats?

I think the whole platform year thing applies more strictly to skaters. Goaltending is just way more volatile and I'm sure the arbitrators know that.

 

[ACC1224]

I think the whole platform year thing applies more strictly to skaters. Goaltending is just way more volatile and I'm sure the arbitrators know that.

I thought the Arbitrators were neutral, not Hockey people?

 

[headwire]

Certainly they'd look beyond Bernier for comparable goalies. Who else could they use for comparison, someone like Pavelec in Winnipeg?

 

[StuckOutHere]

It's not about the role or even how "bad" he was at times. It's strictly about the numbers in arbitration and comparisons. I think he will get between 3M and 4M for sure.

Exactly. I was researching comps for a bit yesterday and was really struggling. Digging up stats on Schneider and Neuvirth and Niemi But, I found pretty much the perfect one right under my nose in Bernier haha.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Certainly they'd look beyond Bernier for comparable goalies. Who else could they use for comparison, someone like Pavelec in Winnipeg?

I was thinking Niemi as well?

09/10 - 39 gp 26-7-4 .912 pct 2.25 gaa

Doesn't have the gp like Reimer, but he signed for $15.2M/4yrs. AAV of $3.8M. It was an offer sheet though. That further complicates things.

 

[headwire]

I was thinking Niemi as well?

09/10 - 39 gp 26-7-4 .912 pct 2.25 gaa

This makes me realize that I don't even know how they even start to find comparable players. Do they try to find a player who was at a similar point in their career at some point in the past and use their stats up to that point, or do they find modern players of a similar caliber? Anyone know how this works?

 

[I Believe]

I think around the 3 mil region seems fair.

Personally I feel more comfortable having Reimer in net then most of the other backups i've seen mentioned like Brodeur.

 

[StuckOutHere]

I think around the 3 mil region seems fair.

Personally I feel more comfortable having Reimer in net then most of the other backups i've seen mentioned like Brodeur.

1000%. Took me a while to come around to it, and I kinda feel sorry for him, but he is our best option.

 

[StuckOutHere]

This makes me realize that I don't even know how they even start to find comparable players. Do they try to find a player who was at a similar point in their career at some point in the past and use their stats up to that point, or do they find modern players of a similar caliber? Anyone know how this works?

I think it's kind of a hybrid. You can't go back too far because the salary cap has greatly effected salaries year to year almost.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I don't think Reimer has proven that he can be a capable back-up. No does he want to be. They have to move him somehow IMO

 

[Fogelhund]

If the dollar value comes in higher than the Leafs like, do they have the option of walking away? I can't recall how it works, I know it depends on team vs. player elected arbitration. I mean if he gets closer to $4million, would they sign him for a backup role? You aren't going to get anything in return on a trade for him at $4 million.

 

[StuckOutHere]

If the dollar value comes in higher than the Leafs like, do they have the option of walking away? I can't recall how it works, I know it depends on team vs. player elected arbitration. I mean if he gets closer to $4million, would they sign him for a backup role? You aren't going to get anything in return on a trade for him at $4 million.

I am a little unaware of this. I know there is a limit where you can walk, but I don't know A) what it is, or B) If it applies to first-time arbitration eligible players.

 

[Mess]

I was thinking Niemi as well?

09/10 - 39 gp 26-7-4 .912 pct 2.25 gaa

Doesn't have the gp like Reimer, but he signed for $15.2M/4yrs. AAV of $3.8M. It was an offer sheet though. That further complicates things.

Offer sheets are not allowable comparables in the CBA, neither are UFA signings.

 

[SprDaVE]

If the dollar value comes in higher than the Leafs like, do they have the option of walking away? I can't recall how it works, I know it depends on team vs. player elected arbitration. I mean if he gets closer to $4million, would they sign him for a backup role? You aren't going to get anything in return on a trade for him at $4 million.

Honestly, at this point, even if he gets more then what he's worth for the Leafs, I would keep him.

It'll be for one year, then he either gets traded at the deadline or walks at the end of the season. It wouldn't be long-term. He would simply be insurance in case Bernier gets injured or even falters a bit during the season.

Reimer is still a very capable goaltender and at times can play great for stretches. He's far better then anything you can sign in free agency right now... by a mile.

The only thing that could be a problem is perhaps a bit of tension between him, Carlyle and management. I think they can move past it for a few months though.

And to answer your question, I believe the team can only walk away from the arbitration decision if it's over 3.5M. At least that was the number last I checked. I'm not sure if it fluctuates depending on the cap.

 

[Mess]

If the dollar value comes in higher than the Leafs like, do they have the option of walking away? I can't recall how it works, I know it depends on team vs. player elected arbitration. I mean if he gets closer to $4million, would they sign him for a backup role? You aren't going to get anything in return on a trade for him at $4 million.

Yes Leafs could walk away from an Arbitrators ruling that they are unwilling to commit to Reimer and that would make him a UFA as a result.

There is a limit in # of times a team can do it in the CBA, but Leafs have never had one that I can remember.

 

[Sypher04]

I can't see his deal being less than ~3.5 mil. This and the fact he is disgruntled really makes me feel more and more that we need to find a way to move him before the season starts.

EDIT: actually, given he's filed for arbitration, can we even trade him at this point?

 

[Duke Silver]

With that being said, what do you guys think Reimer asks for? Where do you think the Leafs go? What would the result of a hearing be? Will they get to a hearing?

Reimer's ask - $3.2M/1yr
Leaf's counter - $2.5M/1yr
Hearing result - $3M/1yr

Crazy, but I think Reimer ends up being our highest paid goalie this year.

From what I understand, the arbitrator does not split the difference. He merely picks the stronger case.

If the dollar value comes in higher than the Leafs like, do they have the option of walking away? I can't recall how it works, I know it depends on team vs. player elected arbitration. I mean if he gets closer to $4million, would they sign him for a backup role? You aren't going to get anything in return on a trade for him at $4 million.

Leafs can walk away from any arbitration ruling over $3.5M.

 

[SprDaVE]

EDIT: actually, given he's filed for arbitration, can we even trade him at this point?

Yes. But the better question is, who would want him enough for us to trade him? Probably not many teams if at all.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Honestly, at this point, even if he gets more then what he's worth for the Leafs, I would keep him.

It'll be for one year, then he either gets traded at the deadline or walks at the end of the season. It wouldn't be long-term. He would simply be insurance in case Bernier gets injured or even falters a bit during the season.

Reimer is still a very capable goaltender and at times can play great for stretches. He's far better then anything you can sign in free agency right now... by a mile.

The only thing that could be a problem is perhaps a bit of tension between him, Carlyle and management. I think they can move past it for a few months though.

And to answer your question, I believe the team can only walk away from the arbitration decision if it's over 3.5M. At least that was the number last I checked. I'm not sure if it fluctuates depending on the cap.

That number rings a bell in regards to the Clarke MacArthur situation back in the day. He signed with us after it was either Atlanta or Buffalo who walked away.

 

[Sypher04]

Yes. But the better question is, who would want him enough for us to trade him? Probably not.

I don't see why Winnipeg wouldn't make a strong offer for Reimer. They seem like such an obvious landing spot for him. And not just because he's from the area.

 

[Diatomic]

I don't think reimer gets 3mil but him getting like 2.2-2.5mil for 1 year is definitely possible

 

[SprDaVE]

I don't see why Winnipeg wouldn't make a strong offer for Reimer. They seem like such an obvious landing spot for him. And not just because he's from the area.

They all ready have Pavelec signed for another couple years at a high price. As bad as he's been for long stretches, looks like they are pretty confident (for better or worst) then he's a quality goaltender and that he'll bounce back.

But with that said, I also think the Jets would be a good spot for Reimer. But that's probably the only team that makes sense right now. I don't think the Jets are willing to give up close to what the Leafs want for a good goaltender though.

We'll see. If I was a betting man, I'd say Reimer will be with the Leafs come October.