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Dreger: Jake Virtanen Lots of interest

Canucks1096

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Feb 13, 2016
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Cogburn said:
The D might then dispell the unrelated belief around here that top 4 D are always traded for a premium return. That's not directly related to our discussion, but kind of a strange note I'm taking away from this.

I am saying Statsny's and Brassard's production (before, around the time of, and after their trades) isn't out of the realm of comparison, with better linemates and opportunities definitely being a factor. Zucker did have a 33 goal season, and I acknowledged that, but that appears to be an outlier from his usual 20+, which is where I will be expecting Virtanen to perform at. Not 33, but 20 ish.

All of these guys have received extras with the 1st, that would exceed what I am expecting with the return of a mid-to-late first round pick. They are all older at the times of their trades as well, which I feel is why their numbers have shored up more so then Virtanen's single year at this scoring pace.

Kase for Boston's late 1st, Andersson and Backes (at 25% retained) is deceptive as Kase being simply a throw in, and the rest of the return being to dump Backes. Backes only makes 4 million next year, retained it is only 3 million for Anaheim to pay. The cap hit, for us the crux of the matter, is 4.5, but then Anaheim could be looking to play Backes with the Gulls in the AHL, bringing the total cap hit to 3.475 million in actual cap hit, which is largely offset by removing Kase's 2.6 million dollar cap hit. In short, Anaheim didn't get a first and prospect for taking Backes on, and I feel that that is more a footnote to the trade then the main motivating factor behind it. I feel Kase was a targeted player here, and taking Backes back with the trade was the cost of making a trade. This deal was not Backes+1st+prospect for nothing (which is how many have framed it for precedent for a trade for, say, Eriksson). Taking on 1.9 million in cap hit (if Backes plays with the Ducks) for 1.25 seasons is hardly worth the prospect, let alone the first, so including Kase is what got the majority of the value to my eye.

I am glad we have some common ground with Coleman and Goodrow, although I do agree contract costs were a factor in Tampa Bay being willing to pay. Virtanen's projected 3 million cap hit isn't a handcuff, compared to Coleman's 1.8 million anyway. One is clearly better then the other, of course. Virtanen scoring 18 for 3 million, or Zucker (for example) getting 22 (his second highest total after 33, compared to 20 the year he was traded or 21 the year before) for 5.5 could be worth the downgrade for cap savings for some teams though.

Virtanen is RFA, and is expected to get about 3 million for a year or two, which is significantly less expensive then some of the better players we've been discussing. Statsny was retained at half, for example.
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To me the comparison is still not even close with Zucker, Hayes, Brassard, Statsny. All were legit top 6 players and has the resume to prove it. Virtanen just has one middle 6 winger production. If you look at two seasons for Zucker and Virtanen then it's not close. The argument you used for some of the other players that they got more than 1st and therefore Virtanen should be worth a 1st. This doesn't really work for me.

Trades is not a simple equation, for example teams are looking for a number 2 center. "They offer a 1st and a prospect for Statsny. The other GM said I don't want to trade a second line center. How about I give a middle 6 center instead and you just give me the 1st without the prospect" Then gm hangs up the phone. The point I am making teams are willing to pay more of a premium for Legit top 6 forward and not a premium for a third line/middle 6 forward. Those forwards are easier to get.

You're right about Kase as not being in throw in. But if we add it all up he still wasn't worth a 1st. Backes did play games for the Ducks this year. If he stay in the nhl. It's like this 2nd round prospect, 2 million extra cap, kase for a 1st. There are two other moving parts therefore kase is not worth a 1st.

Back to the original argument. 40 point winger is not usually worth a 1st pick. Kapanen is outlier and not the norm.

Back to Virtanen. I Don't think he will get a 1st. He might get a 1st if there is other moving parts. Maybe something like 2nd round 2021 Virtanen for 1st round pick/3rd round pick.

You can use Hartman as an example he got a 1st. Still not enough legit examples to say a player that never had more than around 0.5 point is worth a 1st round pick.
 
Guttersniped

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BWJM said:
He hasn’t made a big splash but he’s been on an upward trend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a 50-60pt player in his late 20’s once he’s matured.

Canucks taking a risk on this one IMO unless it’s hard to turn down.
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He’s a UFA in two years. Very late bloomers aren’t that beneficial unless you happen to have them signed with term for cheap but giving him a longer deal now has it’s risks too of course. (And he may not be so cheap.)
 
Cogburn

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Canucks1096 said:
To me the comparison is still not even close with Zucker, Hayes, Brassard, Statsny. All were legit top 6 players and has the resume to prove it. Virtanen just has one middle 6 winger production. If you look at two seasons for Zucker and Virtanen then it's not close. The argument you used for some of the other players that they got more than 1st and therefore Virtanen should be worth a 1st. This doesn't really work for me.

Trades is not a simple equation, for example teams are looking for a number 2 center. "They offer a 1st and a prospect for Statsny. The other GM said I don't want to trade a second line center. How about I give a middle 6 center instead and you just give me the 1st without the prospect" Then gm hangs up the phone. The point I am making teams are willing to pay more of a premium for Legit top 6 forward and not a premium for a third line/middle 6 forward. Those forwards are easier to get.

You're right about Kase as not being in throw in. But if we add it all up he still wasn't worth a 1st. Backes did play games for the Ducks this year. If he stay in the nhl. It's like this 2nd round prospect, 2 million extra cap, kase for a 1st. There are two other moving parts therefore kase is not worth a 1st.

Back to the original argument. 40 point winger is not usually worth a 1st pick. Kapanen is outlier and not the norm.

Back to Virtanen. I Don't think he will get a 1st. He might get a 1st if there is other moving parts. Maybe something like 2nd round 2021 Virtanen for 1st round pick/3rd round pick.

You can use Hartman as an example he got a 1st. Still not enough legit examples to say a player that never had more than around 0.5 point is worth a 1st round pick.
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I'm on my phone, so my response may be briefer then the others have been.

I am not arguing that Virtanen has the body of work the others do, but a combination of youth, relative close production (based on his so far career year), inexpensive cap hit (being RFA) and other tools (not saying he has the tool box per se) could be factors to his benefit. And once again, most of the players I mentioned got more then I am saying Virtanen is worth. His salary alone could boost his value, if I understand your position on Goodrow and Coleman correctly.

I feel I expressed my position on Kase just fine, I don't think he wasn't worth a first, given how the cap will work out for Anaheim. We can agree to disagree on the details here though, much of my argument is speculative.

Many of the players I've listed have been 40 point forwards (or less), often wingers, on the teams that trading them. I don't think Kapanen is the outlier anymore. I don't feel a first round pick commands the value it used to, or we think it used to. The link I think I provided a few posts ago shows trades involving a first, and you can change the criteria to include second round picks too. I think Virtanen beats the pants off some of the players that got a second, and even a second plus. I suppose we will see though, Virtanen could be worth a third of OEL if rumours are to be overstated.
 
Nothingbutglass

Nothingbutglass

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Cogburn said:
I'm on my phone, so my response may be briefer then the others have been.

I am not arguing that Virtanen has the body of work the others do, but a combination of youth, relative close production (based on his so far career year), inexpensive cap hit (being RFA) and other tools (not saying he has the tool box per se) could be factors to his benefit. And once again, most of the players I mentioned got more then I am saying Virtanen is worth. His salary alone could boost his value, if I understand your position on Goodrow and Coleman correctly.

I feel I expressed my position on Kase just fine, I don't think he wasn't worth a first, given how the cap will work out for Anaheim. We can agree to disagree on the details here though, much of my argument is speculative.

Many of the players I've listed have been 40 point forwards (or less), often wingers, on the teams that trading them. I don't think Kapanen is the outlier anymore. I don't feel a first round pick commands the value it used to, or we think it used to. The link I think I provided a few posts ago shows trades involving a first, and you can change the criteria to include second round picks too. I think Virtanen beats the pants off some of the players that got a second, and even a second plus. I suppose we will see though, Virtanen could be worth a third of OEL if rumours are to be overstated.
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A 1st round pick has a better chance of being not fat, drunk, and dumber then a bag of hammers than Virtanen does. You're basing his value on what he could be if he got his shit together. No one is paying a 1st for that hope.
 

Canucks1096

Registered User
Feb 13, 2016
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Cogburn said:
I'm on my phone, so my response may be briefer then the others have been.

I am not arguing that Virtanen has the body of work the others do, but a combination of youth, relative close production (based on his so far career year), inexpensive cap hit (being RFA) and other tools (not saying he has the tool box per se) could be factors to his benefit. And once again, most of the players I mentioned got more then I am saying Virtanen is worth. His salary alone could boost his value, if I understand your position on Goodrow and Coleman correctly.

I feel I expressed my position on Kase just fine, I don't think he wasn't worth a first, given how the cap will work out for Anaheim. We can agree to disagree on the details here though, much of my argument is speculative.

Many of the players I've listed have been 40 point forwards (or less), often wingers, on the teams that trading them. I don't think Kapanen is the outlier anymore. I don't feel a first round pick commands the value it used to, or we think it used to. The link I think I provided a few posts ago shows trades involving a first, and you can change the criteria to include second round picks too. I think Virtanen beats the pants off some of the players that got a second, and even a second plus. I suppose we will see though, Virtanen could be worth a third of OEL if rumours are to be overstated.
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The thing is if most of your comparables, so many things are different then it doesn't even make sense comparing them. Also you were looking at Virtanen career year and using selective stats for the other players. When the team traded 1st for Brassard, Zucker, Hayes, Statsny they average at least 50 points the last 2 seasons. That not comparable to Virtanen at all. Zucker we are not using his 64 point season because that was a career year and yet we are using Virtanen career year? It doesn't seem it is a fair argument you're using

Also if you have a lower cap hit base on your production and then your trade value increases. So if Virtanen keep his 0.5 points and gets 3 M. He is not an underpaid player anymore so therefore his value doesn't increase.

I looked at every 1st round trade since 2013. With the exception of cap dumps and swapping picks. Most 1st involve a legit top 6 F, top 4 D or number 1 goalie.

Kapanen and Harman are 2 legit examples I can give you. Coleman and Goodrow I can kind of give you as well however we both agree the low cap hit was a deciding factor on why they got a 1st round pick. Virtanen will get close to 3 M. That means he is not underpaid player therefore his value won't increase.

A few examples in a 8 year stretch is an outlier. If you're saying Virtanen is worth a 1st. You need to look at players that don't make more than 3 M and never scored more than 0.5 points in your argument. There not that many.
 
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FOurteenS inCisOr

FOurteenS inCisOr

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lennor said:
How is he tough. He’s just right. Virtanen is a moron on and off the ice.
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But seriously.

His post is ignorant.

Jake has some minor off ice issues.

He also posts very respectable numbers as a young physical middle-6 forward despite those issues. With the potential to grow.

If a fellow wants to have a respectful conversation about Jake’s pros and cons without stooping to cliché tropes that degrade a still-young-and-developing but productive player I’m all for it.

But, as a journeyman carpenter, I take any comment seriously that involves “bags of hammers” as a derogatory term.

Because bags of hammers (on the rare occasion you’re not using a pneumatic) can be very useful, hit hard, and are something everyone will need at some point.
 
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elitepete

elitepete

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Brian Griffin said:
I read here the other day that the Bruins were interested. The Bruins have been looking for a rw power forward type since the last one that came from Vancouver. ;)
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He is not really a power forward. He is a shoot first winger with elite skating that throws a lot of hits.
 
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