TSN: Jake Gardiner or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Advanced Stats

[Duke Silver]

Only in Toronto can the following be true:

Defenseman is lauded for his offensive abilities while not being any good in defensive situations.
Winger is widely hated for his lack of defense while being one of the top offensive players in the league for a considerable period of time.

Gardiner is weak on the boards, behind the net, in front of the net, and any other situation that is actually defending. His strengths are all offensive. That's not even debatable.

Let's set up a thread wherein we track all of Gardiner's great defensive plays this coming season. Let's see if we can fill a page.

Let's set up another thread wherein we track all of Gardiner's defensive lapses, giveaways in the defensive zone and missed defensive assignments.

We'll need more than a full thread for the latter.

The best defence is a good offence.

You don't need to defend when you have the puck most of the time.

 

[PJJ]

Good player but makes too many mistakes in the D zone, which can be fixed

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

He's a two way defender not an offensive dman even if he's got the wheels as of right now, two 30 point seasons and one 24 suggests he's a two way defender, although he has shown glimpses of being an offensive dman ie that one playoffs
He will have to do more to be considered one

 

[PuckMagi]

I hope that the plan is to go with Gardiner - Phaneuf as the top pair.

The plan will be to run every breakout through Gardiner who skates up the ice with speed. Either the center or winger will fall back and cover for Gardiner if he's able to skate his way all the way up the ice. Gardiner also doesn't really like to shoot; so he can pass it off to Phaneuf for a one timer from the point. Phaneuf obviously clears the front of the net on defense and takes care of the physical aspect... leaving Gardiner to puck chase. I think they could become a pretty dominant top pairing the league. They can both play a lot of minutes, but Gardiner especially doesn't seem to get too tired because of the style that he plays.

I'd then go with Rielly - Polak as a second pairing... and have Gardiner - Rielly on the first PP... and Phaneuf - Polak on the first PK.

The same plan will exist for the second pair... where Polak will always get the puck to Rielly who can skate it up the ice. Except Rielly is better off shooting since he's got a good shot and Polak doesn't have much of a one timer.

 

[Duke Silver]

He's a two way defender not an offensive dman even if he's got the wheels as of right now, two 30 point seasons and one 24 suggests he's a two way defender, although he has shown glimpses of being an offensive dman ie that one playoffs
He will have to do more to be considered one

Well it starts with giving him PP1 duties, which he has never had.

Should be Gardiner and Rielly on the top powerplay unit.

 

[slozo]

Only in Toronto can the following be true:

Defenseman is lauded for his offensive abilities while not being any good in defensive situations.
Winger is widely hated for his lack of defense while being one of the top offensive players in the league for a considerable period of time.

Gardiner is weak on the boards, behind the net, in front of the net, and any other situation that is actually defending. His strengths are all offensive. That's not even debatable.

Let's set up a thread wherein we track all of Gardiner's great defensive plays this coming season. Let's see if we can fill a page.

Let's set up another thread wherein we track all of Gardiner's defensive lapses, giveaways in the defensive zone and missed defensive assignments.

We'll need more than a full thread for the latter.

This is pretty accurate IMHO.
Gardiner is slated to become a power play specialist only, quite possibly for another team in the future. I seriously can't see Babcock teaching Gardiner sense, but good luck, I hope he can do it.

 

[New Liskeard]

I don't mind Gardiner, just wish he was a little smarter.

Couldn't agree more. Excellent god given talent and ability, his thought process seems unable to catch up to his skill level. I believe his hockey IQ was a question mark in his draft year. He seems to deke himself out on a regular basis.

 

[Northern Dancer]

I don't know, the older I get the dumber he seems.

Thats Gold!!!!!!

 

[Ricky Bobby]

http://www.tsn.ca/you-don-t-have-to-be-chara-to-be-an-effective-nhl-defenceman-1.358467

Look where he ranks in terms of slot D

That whole article needs to be taken with a grain of salt. It fails to factor in things like defensive zone starts, quality of competition, quality of teammates.

Good thing the Leafs have better advanced stats than Yost.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Are these 5v5 stats?

 

[TheProspector]

At least half of what posters are observing as a deficit in Gardiner's hockey IQ is probably his teammates out of useful support positioning.

 

[Trigger96]

At least half of what posters are observing as a deficit in Gardiner's hockey IQ is probably his teammates out of useful support positioning.

I think it has more to do with Gardiner's secret desire to be a figure skater rather than a hockey player..

 

[Trigger96]

heck, the fact he's a Bieber fan is reason enough for me to believe that he has IQ issues...

 

[egd27]

The best defence is a good offence.

You don't need to defend when you have the puck most of the time.

True, but I don't think this will apply to this year's edition of the team. So they best learn how to defend without the puck.

 

[Kubus]

I think most of Gardiner's "IQ" issues came from the coaching staff not playing him to his strengths, which cause confidence issues, as well as him trying to live up to his new contract. I really expect things to be different for him under Babcock.

I think it also comes down to ones expectations of Gardiner. If expect him to play like a top line shutdown D then I think you will be disappointed. I see him as a solid top 4 guy with great puck moving abilities. I think he can improve on his defensive game.

 

[ACC1224]

The best defence is a good offence.

You don't need to defend when you have the puck most of the time.

How do you get the puck?

 

[Reddaye]

It wasn't all that many seasons ago that most of this board was pumping Jake's tires as the next big thing. The playoff series against Boston comes to mind immediately. Oh, how the winds of change can blow so quickly.

This is going to be a very interesting season for Jake. We should, by rights, have a more structured and sensible defensive system in place. At 25 or so years of age, he's still on the younger side for a defenceman, and still has room to learn and grow as a player.

I think he'll begin to come into his own this season, and begin to soldify his position as a second pairing guy. Hopefully having a system in place that isn't just a random swarm defence will help him (and others) get a better idea of where they need to be, and what they need to be doing. Not just a seemingly random jumble of bodies skating around their own zone like it was a bee hive.

He'll never be an All-Star calibre player most likely, but if he can round out into a solid second pairing guy, there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[Duke Silver]

How do you get the puck?

What is this, the chicken and the egg?

Gardiner's pretty adept at knocking down/intercepting passes, and also for making himself available when the team regains possession.

Give it to him and 95 chances out of a hundred, it's out of our zone and onto the stick of a teammate.

 

[Cams]

Fancy charts, etc. aside...... you have to look at the product/result on the ice.

Gardiner is touted as an offensive dman. Yet, he does put up any any offensive numbers....? Was he not a top Leafs player in TOI last year? So, he is given minutes, yet he gets no results. He is one of the better skaters on the team, I'll give him that. As a defender though....bad positioning, virtually no physical aspect to his game, gives the puck away in his own end (and the other end at times) way too much for a defender. Those blind throwing the puck away moments are hair pullers. He is not a rookie, yet makes rookie mistakes. His hockey IQ is questionable, if not right dumbfounding at times.

I don't care what kind of defensive "effect" charts you throw at me. I know from watching him play that he is a liability on the ice, especially in his own end. I mean, can the Leafs have a guy ready to jump on the ice every time the puck is headed back in their own end, so he can jump off the ice.....? It's that bad at times, and no just last year.

I look at a guy like Letang, or Karlsson......these guys are highly paid defenders, who if you took away their offense, are below average d-men.

I might be able to cut Gardiner some slack if he actually put up offensive numbers, but he doesn't - again, that's despite playing top minutes.

Any you can't tell me it's because of the lack of positioning/whatever of the forwards when he is on the ice.

Watch his game......he avoids contact in his own when pursuing the puck. That's another thing the drives me nuts. What's that old saying...he can go into the corner with a dozen eggs, and come out with 13. That sums up his game pretty good.

I hope Babcock has change him, make him worth the money he is being paid, but if not, they have to cut their losses with Gardiner. Trust me, I want him to succeed and help the Leafs, but how many more chances is he supposed to get..... Prove me wrong Jake.

I will say it again - having Reilly, Percy makes Gardiner redundant - especially considering the lack of defensive d-men on this team. Guys on hear want to trade Polak, he is a very good defender, he had 1 more goal than the offensive juggernaut Gardiner, in 23 less games - an an example.

 

[Leafsrock95]

Fancy charts, etc. aside...... you have to look at the product/result on the ice.

Gardiner is touted as an offensive dman. Yet, he does put up any any offensive numbers....? Was he not a top Leafs player in TOI last year? So, he is given minutes, yet he gets no results. He is one of the better skaters on the team, I'll give him that. As a defender though....bad positioning, virtually no physical aspect to his game, gives the puck away in his own end (and the other end at times) way too much for a defender. Those blind throwing the puck away moments are hair pullers. He is not a rookie, yet makes rookie mistakes. His hockey IQ is questionable, if not right dumbfounding at times.

I don't care what kind of defensive "effect" charts you throw at me. I know from watching him play that he is a liability on the ice, especially in his own end. I mean, can the Leafs have a guy ready to jump on the ice every time the puck is headed back in their own end, so he can jump off the ice.....? It's that bad at times, and no just last year.

I look at a guy like Letang, or Karlsson......these guys are highly paid defenders, who if you took away their offense, are below average d-men.

I might be able to cut Gardiner some slack if he actually put up offensive numbers, but he doesn't - again, that's despite playing top minutes.

Any you can't tell me it's because of the lack of positioning/whatever of the forwards when he is on the ice.

Watch his game......he avoids contact in his own when pursuing the puck. That's another thing the drives me nuts. What's that old saying...he can go into the corner with a dozen eggs, and come out with 13. That sums up his game pretty good.

I hope Babcock has change him, make him worth the money he is being paid, but if not, they have to cut their losses with Gardiner. Trust me, I want him to succeed and help the Leafs, but how many more chances is he supposed to get..... Prove me wrong Jake.

I will say it again - having Reilly, Percy makes Gardiner redundant - especially considering the lack of defensive d-men on this team. Guys on hear want to trade Polak, he is a very good defender, he had 1 more goal than the offensive juggernaut Gardiner, in 23 less games - an an example.

I agree, if Gardiner can't take any steps forward and Percy is ready for the big leagues it might be time to cut him loose. I mean we've been waiting for Gardiner to take that next step for like 3 seasons already.

 

[Leafsrock95]

What is this, the chicken and the egg?

Gardiner's pretty adept at knocking down/intercepting passes, and also for making himself available when the team regains possession.

Give it to him and 95 chances out of a hundred, it's out of our zone and onto the stick of a teammate.

Its easy to say that but when he's skating around doing fk all in the D-zone just following opponents doing absolutely nothing how is he going to get the puck out?

Watch Gardiner play defense all he does is follow his man around and get out of position then someone scores or has a scoring chance. People see him skate the puck up the ice and thats all they see. When he brings the puck up the ice he doesn't even do anything half the time and its either a wasted possession or weak scoring opportunity.

Gardiner is overrated so far and has only proven he's can move the puck up the ice.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Well it starts with giving him PP1 duties, which he has never had.

Should be Gardiner and Rielly on the top powerplay unit.

you may have a point but thats not likely going to happen i would think its
phaneuf and reilly, i agree however that it should be gardiner and rielly
if gardiner is capable of it

 

[Nithoniniel]

Fancy charts, etc. aside...... you have to look at the product/result on the ice.

Gardiner is touted as an offensive dman. Yet, he does put up any any offensive numbers....? Was he not a top Leafs player in TOI last year? So, he is given minutes, yet he gets no results. He is one of the better skaters on the team, I'll give him that. As a defender though....bad positioning, virtually no physical aspect to his game, gives the puck away in his own end (and the other end at times) way too much for a defender. Those blind throwing the puck away moments are hair pullers. He is not a rookie, yet makes rookie mistakes. His hockey IQ is questionable, if not right dumbfounding at times.

I don't care what kind of defensive "effect" charts you throw at me. I know from watching him play that he is a liability on the ice, especially in his own end. I mean, can the Leafs have a guy ready to jump on the ice every time the puck is headed back in their own end, so he can jump off the ice.....? It's that bad at times, and no just last year.

I look at a guy like Letang, or Karlsson......these guys are highly paid defenders, who if you took away their offense, are below average d-men.

I might be able to cut Gardiner some slack if he actually put up offensive numbers, but he doesn't - again, that's despite playing top minutes.

Any you can't tell me it's because of the lack of positioning/whatever of the forwards when he is on the ice.

Watch his game......he avoids contact in his own when pursuing the puck. That's another thing the drives me nuts. What's that old saying...he can go into the corner with a dozen eggs, and come out with 13. That sums up his game pretty good.

I hope Babcock has change him, make him worth the money he is being paid, but if not, they have to cut their losses with Gardiner. Trust me, I want him to succeed and help the Leafs, but how many more chances is he supposed to get..... Prove me wrong Jake.

I will say it again - having Reilly, Percy makes Gardiner redundant - especially considering the lack of defensive d-men on this team. Guys on hear want to trade Polak, he is a very good defender, he had 1 more goal than the offensive juggernaut Gardiner, in 23 less games - an an example.

I find it funny that you are perfectly fine forgiving all his perceived flaws if he had end results offensively (points), but won't extend the same courtesy regarding his end results defensively (shot/scoring chances/goal suppression).

Gardiner is not an offensive D-man. He is a puck-moving D-man. That's not the same thing.

Another thing I don't understand; Why do people get up in arms about every D-man who is not physical in the corners, yet there is not a peep about how a Polak runs around with absolutely zero stick positioning?

Why is there always people harping on every D-man who gives the puck away (never mind context, never mind that Gardiner in this case does this the least among all our D-men), yet nobody ever mentions Phaneuf giving up the blueline as if getting close to puck-carrying players attacking his zone is toxic?

One would almost think people's understanding of defensive play in hockey is limited to being tough in the corners and not giving up the puck. Oh, and effort on the backchecking.

Its easy to say that but when he's skating around doing fk all in the D-zone just following opponents doing absolutely nothing how is he going to get the puck out?

Watch Gardiner play defense all he does is follow his man around and get out of position then someone scores or has a scoring chance. People see him skate the puck up the ice and thats all they see. When he brings the puck up the ice he doesn't even do anything half the time and its either a wasted possession or weak scoring opportunity.

Gardiner is overrated so far and has only proven he's can move the puck up the ice.

So all he does is get lost, and then the opposition scores or having a scoring chance. And despite this, we surrender less goals and scoring chances than with any other D-man on the ice, over the sample size of three years.

Must just be the opposition feeling sorry for him and electing not to try and score, right?

 

[91Kadri91*]

Only in Toronto can the following be true:

Defenseman is lauded for his offensive abilities while not being any good in defensive situations.
Winger is widely hated for his lack of defense while being one of the top offensive players in the league for a considerable period of time.

Kessel wasn't poor defensively, he was poor in the neutral zone (which is the most important zone for maintaining/creating possession):

Gardiner is weak on the boards, behind the net, in front of the net, and any other situation that is actually defending. His strengths are all offensive. That's not even debatable.

You're right, it's not 'debatable': it's incontrovertibly erroneous.



There goes the notion that 'Gardiner isn't involved defensively'.

6.55 shotrate against GAR (9th in the league amongst defensemen); -137.02 dCorsiImpact (2nd in the league amongst defensemen); -89.37 dFenwickImpact (5th in the league amongst defensemen); -8.50 CARelTM (5th in the league amongst defensemen with 300+ minutes played); -5.28 FARelTM (13th in the league amongst defensemen); -0.52 GARelTM (38th in the league amongst defesemen); -8.50 CA60 +/-; -6.37 CARelTM 2012-15 (9th in the league among defensemen with 1000+ minutes played); -1.94 FARelTM 2012-15 (53rd in the league amongst defensemen); -0.53 GARelTM 2012-15 (15th in the league amongst defensemen).

http://public.tableau.com/shared/5MWDJKK67?:display_count=yes

Gardiner has averaged top-pairing ES minutes (led the Leafs this year in ES ice-time) over the past three seasons (http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/), and all of the stats above are adjusted for ZS.

WOWY

Bernier

Gardiner ON-> 2.05 GA60; 55.2 CA60; 33.25 DZFO
Gardiner OFF-> 2.69 GA60; 64.3 CA60; 35.72 DZFO

Reimer

Gardiner ON-> 2.78 GA60; 52.4 CA60; 37.92 DZFO
Gardiner OFF-> 3.13 GA60; 62.6 CA60; 36.01 DZFO

http://war-on-ice.com/hexplayers.html

Click on link; search Jake Gardiner.

Gardiner prevents shots, scoring chances, and goals against; that's what a defensive defenseman is supposed to do! I don't understand why you people care how Gardiner goes about preventing these variables when everything he currently does is propitious.

He's effective defensively- get over it.

Let's set up a thread wherein we track all of Gardiner's great defensive plays this coming season. Let's see if we can fill a page.

Let's set up another thread wherein we track all of Gardiner's defensive lapses, giveaways in the defensive zone and missed defensive assignments.

We'll need more than a full thread for the latter.

Yes, and while you're at it, you can all foolishly opine that cognitive biases don't exist, while you sing the ABC's, read a Robert Munsch book, and try to figure out how to add fractions.

 

[Ovate]

When Jake Gardiner is on the ice, the Leafs give up fewer goals against per 60 than when he is not on the ice, taking into account quality of competition, linemates, score, and zone starts. That is a fact. Given that fact, anyone who says he's a bad defenseman is delusional.