Jake gardiner is better than rielly

[Menzinger]

Saying that Gardiner is better this season shouldn't be seen as a negative statement towards Rielly - it just means the Leafs have two very good young defenders.

 

[Deez Nuts]

I tend to agree. I think he'll be an offensive #2-3 and not this stud defender everyone think he'll be.

Regarding the topic at hand, Gardiner has been better this season.

Been saying this for almost two years now, but I am told I am nuts, know nothing about hockey and that Rielly is the next Keith/Karlsson for sure. I am not saying that I am right or that he is not a good player, but it is interesting to see that a few posters have come out of the closet and seem to be lowering expectations. Usually I am the only one to hammer him in the Rielly thread - any criticism is considered blasphemous. Considering the majority around here think Rielly should have been the number 1 pick, it is no suprise Leaf fans have a reputation for evaluating their own. It is amazing that the bulk of Leaf fans think Rielly deserves 6-6.5 million a year on a max contract (top 10 for D) which is about 1.5 times guys like Gardiner or Klinberg make or over double what Murray just signed for. Right now, he is basically an offensive defenseman that is putting up mediocre point totals and is challenged defensively. Yes he is only 21, but I am still waiting to see this off the charts offensive skill that was the main reason he was drafted.

 

[Purity*]

Why? I'm not allowed to project players careers on a message board?

You're allowed to say what you like but it looks like you're intentionally undermining his upside.

 

[Deez Nuts]

Sigh.

No I don't think you can't read. I also don't have a problem with others subjective opinions, especially not yours as I think you are a good poster. I'm saying that you seem to have a narrative you have decided on, and preconceived notion of what I'm saying that makes my point pass you by.

I do not keep stating Rielly is not versatile. That's not what I have said at any point. I'm saying:

1) Versatile D-men play both sides equally effective. There are plenty of examples of this.
2) The very defining measure of versatility is being able to play a different position without loosing too much of your effectiveness.
3) Therefor you can't both be versatile, yet be much more effective on one side.
4) In a situation with a player playing on his off-side, either he's versatile and he doesn't lose much of his effectiveness, or he isn't and his numbers would look better on his proper side.

It is simple logic, not a matter of opinion.

So to address your second paragraph, it's all fine to say that Rielly would have better numbers on the left side and the gap between them decrease. But then you can't laud Rielly for being versatile enough to play both sides. If both of them perform worse on the right side, both of them are better on the left, then one of them can't be a versatile player and the other not. It defies any kind of logic.

Also, what you are doing is identifying contextual factors, like quality of competition, and then assigning an arbitrary impact. You keep saying that despite Gardiner's statistical edge, Rielly is the better D-man because of these factors. What do you base your opinion that the impact of these factors are large enough for Rielly to be the better player? Because I base my opinion on the matter on tons of studies of quality of competition and the effect it has on cases like these.



I agree with this completely. I think both are long-term pieces for this club, Rielly in particular. I don't mean in any way to belittle one of them, or making it a case of having to choose one. I am just a sucker for accuracy.

On that note, I think I'm done with the above discussion. If my point hasn't come across by now, I don't think it ever will.

I believe this debate is similar to the Kadri situation. Even though Kadri is playing #1C, he is not excelling at it. He is only there due to circumstances and lack of options and he is miscast as a result. Rielly is playing his off side and is not excelling either - mostly fue to circumstances and lack of options as well. I suspect he would be better overall playing on his natural side. I don't understand the concept of giving a player props or applauding his play when he is not performing as well as he would in his best suited position.

 

[Tigerarmy]

Been saying this for almost two years now, but I am told I am nuts, know nothing about hockey and that Rielly is the next Keith/Karlsson for sure. I am not saying that I am right or that he is not a good player, but it is interesting to see that a few posters have come out of the closet and seem to be lowering expectations. Usually I am the only one to hammer him in the Rielly thread - any criticism is considered blasphemous. Considering the majority around here think Rielly should have been the number 1 pick, it is no suprise Leaf fans have a reputation for evaluating their own. It is amazing that the bulk of Leaf fans think Rielly deserves 6-6.5 million a year on a max contract (top 10 for D) which is about 1.5 times guys like Gardiner or Klinberg make or over double what Murray just signed for. Right now, he is basically an offensive defenseman that is putting up mediocre point totals and is challenged defensively. Yes he is only 21, but I am still waiting to see this off the charts offensive skill that was the main reason he was drafted.

I'm guessing you realize he has barely played on the powerplay this year up until the Dion deal? Of course he's struggling defensively! He's being matched up against the other teams top lines at age 21 and that's why Babcock has been working on his defensive game. That's the reason he wasn't getting PP minutes so he could concentrate on it cause it was a weakness. He has a lot to learn still, Babcock has mentioned that in interviews all season. Gardiner still has a brain cramp every once in a while as well but he has improved his consistency under Babcock and he's slowly getting his confidence back as his offense is starting to increase. I'm hoping Cowen can be a reform project for Mike as well once his hip loosens up

 

[Dough72]

Reilly has the more creative mind and makes some truly slick plays now and then, especially passes. But also makes more glaring errors now and then especially his own zone. Which I think means he has more upside and justifies fans thinking he could be special a few years from now

it is no suprise Leaf fans have a reputation for evaluating their own

according to who? All those fanbases that are super knowledgeable and objective?

Leafs fanbase is probably the most cynical in the history of sports. And most knowledgeable.

 

[Leafidelity]

Gardiner is near the prime of his career, I can't even imagine Rielly in 4 years as a 25 year old vet.

I still think Rielly is better today too.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Reilly is better of one reason. Gardiner is absolutely lost in the defensive zone. Gardiner cannot make the right reads.

Reilly is much better of an all around player and younger, and has more offensive upside.

Whoever says Gardiner is better than Reilly is going off their rocker.

Who could think otherwise, when you present such a good case for your opinion?

The most amazing thing about Gardiner must be that he consistently helps us decrease shots against, scoring chances against and goals against when he's on the ice, with any and all contextual reasons accounted for, despite the fact that he is absolutely awful at it. That's nothing short of miraculous. It's the equivalent of an offensive black hole putting up 1st line numbers no matter who he plays with. Almost unheard of, really.

Certainly can't be any fault in the eye of the beholder though.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Quality of competition, defensive/offensive zone starts, and their defensive partners are pretty telling in my opinion.

Gardiner got Phaneuf for the majority of the season with easier minutes and match ups.

I like Gardiner and think he could be a staple on the 2nd pairing going forward, but I definitely see Rielly as the superior player.

 

[Menzinger]

Dion was more of an anchor than help this season.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Dion was more of an anchor than help this season.

Phaneuf or Hunwick? Contracts aside, it's Phaneuf by a land slide.

 

[WilliamNylander]

Here is how I see it.

Gardiner is better now. Better defensively than MR44 and also a better overall defenseman right now.

However, Rielly is better offensively already and has an insanely high ceiling that he looks poised to reach.

Its hard to judge them because they've both played with horrible partners for a long time now but I would like to see the Leafs stack their top pair and put them together.

Gards with Rielly and play them both ~25mins a night. Yes our 2nd and 3rd pairs will get eaten alive but we're tanking anyways...

 

[Menzinger]

Phaneuf or Hunwick? Contracts aside, it's Phaneuf by a land slide.

I don't think either has played well so I'd say it's a wash.

Maybe give the edge to Dion though.

 

[darrylsittler27]

So, who is better in 2 years?

By the way I guess 3 years in the league wouldn't have any factor in the story?

 

[Nithoniniel]

By the way I guess 3 years in the league wouldn't have any factor in the story?

I don't think there's many who thinks Gardiner will be better in 2-3 years.

 

[TheDangler*]

Hell's no, that's just crazy talk. I do think Gardiner is playing much better this season then he has in the past. Jake has made a lot less plays that have made me throw my arms up in the air throwing the question to everyone around "what is Gardiner doing" I think he can be a top 4 guy, but Rielly is a much better player. He makes me throw my arms up and say "wow, that was a great..." pass, move, rush, whatever he did.

 

[Cotton]

This article confirms my doubts on rielly, which I agree on
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...t=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Coming from a habs fan, I'm shocked

Do any of you watch or even understand just what you are seeing.....

LOL, I was reading this thread up till your post with my mouth open - completely amazed.

I don't consider it a slight that Gardiner is the better player right now though.

Maybe you need better reception there in Sweden? Because Gardiner isn't better than Rielly. If watching the games isn't enough to tell you that than maybe the fact Gardiner is being utilized as a 2nd pair instead of getting 1st pair WITH Rielly who's been playing on his off side? I mean why would Babcock play Jake less than Rielly, Hunwick and Phaneuf? And why's Jake, who's a offensive defenseman, not leading our D in offense considering his ample PP time, the weaker comp he plays against at ES and his obscenely high ZS%?

It's no secret I have hammered Rielly with respect to his defensive play over the last couple of years. Everyone blames his partner and the overall team and all the advanced stats are ignored. Gardiner being a top possession player and and and elite at shot suppression are used to validate his effectiveness defensively. Yet these same stats mean zilch when it comes to Rielly. I feel there is a wide gap between the two on the defensive side at this current point of time. These are the type of plays I see from Rielly basically every game.

https://instagram.com/p/BB1I2jtof9n/

And this is poor defense by Rielly in your opinion? that he was the only man at the net and his D partner was out of position, complete abandoning his man - that Mo didn't commit to one player which would leave the other player open. The result was bad regardless... but that's not even on Rielly to begin with.

 

[teeder333*]

Gardiner is the 2016 version of Jim McKenny. A guy who broke Leaf hearts for eons. A total, and complete cement head.

I have hopes that Morgan Rielly is not a cement head. Even though both of them, have heads that look like blocks.

I hold out some hope for Rielly. Gardiner should be sold now that he is cresting late in the season. Total disappointment to me.

 

[teeder333*]

Sooner we get rid of Gardiner the better. Its just another cement head with talent that picks and chooses the time to show that talent. McKenny all the way.

 

[Raymoondo]

Gardiner is the 2016 version of Jim McKenny. A guy who broke Leaf hearts for eons. A total, and complete cement head.

I have hopes that Morgan Rielly is not a cement head. Even though both of them, have heads that look like blocks.

I hold out some hope for Rielly. Gardiner should be sold now that he is cresting late in the season. Total disappointment to me.

Nice to see you have high hopes for our defensive core.

 

[Macallan18]

despite the fact that he SEEMS absolutely awful at it. That's nothing short of miraculous.

a slight amendment.

 

[thewave]

Gardiner is the 2016 version of Jim McKenny. A guy who broke Leaf hearts for eons. A total, and complete cement head.

I have hopes that Morgan Rielly is not a cement head. Even though both of them, have heads that look like blocks.

I hold out some hope for Rielly. Gardiner should be sold now that he is cresting late in the season. Total disappointment to me.

Get off the island.

 

[Macallan18]

Sooner we get rid of Gardiner the better. Its just another cement head with talent that picks and chooses the time to show that talent. McKenny all the way.

Thank god the powers that be understand Gardiner's value, so he is going nowhere. Jim McKenny? Really? With all the demons? I don't think so.
Can't tell the future, but I think Reilly and Gardiner will be the core of our defense for some time. Maybe Zaitsev as an add on, but could still use a RHD to fill the top four. After that, we have plenty of prospects for the bottom pair.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

LOL nope to OP

 

[Nithoniniel]

Maybe you need better reception there in Sweden? Because Gardiner isn't better than Rielly. If watching the games isn't enough to tell you that than maybe the fact Gardiner is being utilized as a 2nd pair instead of getting 1st pair WITH Rielly who's been playing on his off side? I mean why would Babcock play Jake less than Rielly, Hunwick and Phaneuf? And why's Jake, who's a offensive defenseman, not leading our D in offense considering his ample PP time, the weaker comp he plays against at ES and his obscenely high ZS%?

Or perhaps I have a case I can make where I don't need to resort to insults?

First of all. Watching the game means you put your faith in your cognitive ability, your eye test, which is highly biased and not to mention subjective. Understanding that is key to evaluation.

Utilization is not a better indicator of quality than actual performance, as it depends on a lot of factors. That should be obvious especially when the subject is Rielly, who has not been utilized on the PP. We know that's not indicative of his abilities there.

Nevertheless, Babcock has been very clear that he does not want Gardiner and Rielly on the same pairing as he wants them on two different pairings to push possession. So that's why Gardiner is on the second pairing.

I really don't want to go into the whole "Rielly on his off-side" again, I have half a dozen posts on the subject already. But sure, it's a factor.

Jake played almost exactly as much as Dion, and has had his role increase with Dion's departure. And Hunwick is tied to Rielly's hip, I hope everyone understands the reason for this isn't that he's our second best D-man.

Gardiner being an offensive D-man has never been very accurate. People label any D-man who can skate as that, regardless of other qualities. Gardiner is a transition D-man whose biggest impact on the game is defensively. That he can provide 30 points as well with PP time is a bonus.

QoC has a insignificant effect over the course of a season. Rielly will end up playing against slightly tougher opposition at season's end. Changes in QoC almost never results in any big statistical effect, because the differences are so small.

You then mention Gardiner having "obscenely high ZS%". This is especially funny as Gardiner has slightly above average ZS, not to mention that it's worth as a contextual factor is highly questioned.

So what Rielly has on Gardiner is 1 minute more ES time, playing PK while being one of our worse performers there, and a bit better ES production.

Gardiner has much better possession driving numbers and much better defensive numbers, by pretty much any standard and including numbers that take QoC and ZS% into account.

I'm sure that in a year, Rielly has improved enough on the PK for it to be a factor in his favor, and has continued to evolve enough that the things in his favor weigh up squarely with everything in Gardiner's favor, but right now any kind of statistical analysis will favor Gardiner. And that's no slight to Rielly at all, whom I'm very excited for. That he is closing in on Gardiner at the tender age of 21 is amazing.

a slight amendment.

Didn't want to betray my dripping irony to anyone who wasn't paying attention