A buyout doesn't make much sense. He has three years left and obviously two after this season. At that point unless he is total garbage I think he becomes someone you can trade. Plus, buying him out reduces the cap hit but that hit stays twice as long. We don't want to be paying him 4-5 years from now, we have done that with enough guys already.
If he's injured, we put him on IR until his contract is done. No big deal, we won't likely need the cap space for a while.
Ideally he stays healthy and plays well, which gives us a win-win situation - trade him for value, or keep as one of the vets to bridge the gap between the rebuild and (hopefully) contending.
Completely agree, any kind of buyout/ sell low/ contract dump involving Lupul would probably be the first move by this management to make me unhappy. Unless there's some sort of major asset coming back, even if it is similarly risky (conditional pick, reclamation project, etc) I don't move Lupul. Given the rebuild and the pockets of this team there is no pressure to move him now, holding on and hoping for a rebound is the smart play when there is nothing to lose.
Plus I think its less of a gamble than one would think. I think Lupul's injury troubles are greatly exaggerated.
He's been in the NHL for 11 seasons.
In all but 2 of those he's played atleast 65% of his teams games. Those two being:
-his battle with back issues/ a blood infection
- getting hit with a dion clapper in the lockout shortened year
Both pretty rare circumstances
In all but 3 of those he's been above .6 ppg. Those three being:
-his rookie year
-the disastrous year in Edmonton
-the ****show that was 2014-2015 TML
He's both played in 65% of games been above .6ppg in 6/10 non rookie nhl seasons. Removing the two sub 65% seasons (which are borderline outliers statistically speaking)
his career season average is 41 points in 61 games.
I like the odds of a rebound, especially combined with the fact that with each passing year his contract becomes less of a barrier. Erik Cole and Kimmo TImonen got 2nds at this deadline, playoff teams be crazy.
I don't think you guys interpreted my post correctly.
I said if he does not perform, WHATSOEVER, then there are 2 possibilities that will occur with the Lupul.
1) He is sent down to the Marlies, either next season or the after, and used as a guide/mentor for the younger generation coming up. He'll be relatively forgotten about (Unless picked up off waivers) and would remain there barring some statistical spike that shows he may have retained his old form.
2) He is bought out. This is in the case of a Mike Richards/Alex Semin scenario, where he is so bad and so toxic (While he does possess great leadership skills, see 1., he also can do some stupid things) that he should not be remotely on the roster. Now he is different to Semin and Richards in that after this season, a season that he will play here, he has only 2 years left. So that does make this lesser option as he would then be on the books for twice as long, but a much smaller cap hit. Worth noting that with the youth of this team being what it is for the remaining of his contract, his original cap hit is a non issue.
Now, this is all under the premise that he does not perform this season. If he, alongside guys like Kadri, JVR, Rielly, Phaneuf, etc. is able to make this team dramatically better, then he could be held onto. In this case he'd be used as a cushion for the younger players, being able to absorb the attention when Nylander, Brown, Kapanen and Marner are brought up. Something along the lines of his 2011-2012 season would make this a reality.
But if he gets something more reasonable, like an improved 50-pt season, then he is with out a doubt "Trade Bait". He'll be shipped out sometime between January and the TDL and will fetch a 1st and a prospect (An obvious over payment but all trades of this nature are). Most fans are hoping for this scenario, because it attributes to the rebuild that we have going.
Now personally, I don't know what I'd like. Would it be great to see Joffrey Lupul reign supreme in Toronto again? Of course. Would I like that to happen at the expense of a Jakob Chychrun? Not really. But there's also a whole bunch more top players in this draft that could be available from 5-10.
I think we need to realize what Joffrey is. A remarkably injury-prone player, who when playing at the top of his game, is an elite, and yet underrated, 2-way player with a bit grit to his game. He's a smooth skater, with great hands and lots of hockey IQ. Remember that he was considered our franchise guy during that 2011-2012 season. He was named Alternate Captain at the All-Star game, and was a key piece to our future. Even the following season, the lockout year, he dominated before and after being injured. But his play, along with the team, went down hill. So it is easy to think that a coach like Babcock, someone who only I've just recently discovered coached Lupul in '03-'04*, can easily bring him back to elite level status.
*I actually have his Ducks rookie card. I won it in a special pack that I got in the mail when I was 8-9 years old. It came with the "Top Prospects" of that time. Guys like Eric Staal, MA Fleury, Braydon Coburn, Andrew Alberts and Jussi Jokinen were all in it. Was really cool back then.
