Prospect Info: Ives Preliminary 2020 Draft Rankings (1-32 for March)
- Thread starter StevenToddIves
- Start date
It’s only been about two days. Can you imagine what’s it’s going to be like in here in two weeks? We will all be demanding you find us the next Lovejoy in the upcoming draft and then insult you because the prospect plays more like Bobby Orr. Might as well just settle for Scott Niedermayer since there is no way we can have lighting strike twice and find another slow big non physical limited defender with absolutely no offensive ability or skill and who gets paid top dollar to play protected minutes that would be much better served going to a younger player who may actually benefit the team when it matters.
MichaelJ
Registered User
- May 20, 2013
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AfroThunder396
[citation needed]
Vancouver is not that great, their whole team is just three really excellent bluechip young players. Miller is good but playing way above his head, Markstrom is good but has consistency issues. Horvat is nice. The rest of the team is overpaid washed up depth players on albatross deals.
Most of their fans want Benning fired and to rebuild around Pettersson, Boesser, and Big Hughes. He ruined their cap bringing in guys like Myers and Eriksson, and really handcuffed them by over committing to scrubs like Beagle and Roussell.
Most of their fans want Benning fired and to rebuild around Pettersson, Boesser, and Big Hughes. He ruined their cap bringing in guys like Myers and Eriksson, and really handcuffed them by over committing to scrubs like Beagle and Roussell.
Vancouver's scouting department has been absolutely fantastic in the past 3 years. Pettersson, Hughes and Podkolzin were certainly all top 10 picks, but Pettersson and Hughes have a chance to be the best players from their entire draft years and Podkolzin also looks like a future star. When you add in mid and late-round gems like Lind, Rathbone, Woo, Madden and Hoglander you get a pretty bright future, regardless of Benning's mistakes.
I actually like the Canucks' situation in net, though they will likely be forced to make a decision between Markstrom and Demko pretty soon. I'm guessing they let Markstrom walk due to cap concerns, as Benning has certainly overpaid some checking liners in recent years to put the team in a bit of financial bind.
I don't see Vancouver as a lottery team next year, though it would not be the biggest surprise in the world. With top players Pettersson, Hughes, Horvat and Boeser so young, I think they only stand to get better. I see them buying out Eriksson this off-season, which would enable them to have enough cap space to re-sign Tanev and their RFAs. Lind and Rathbone could make the team out of camp next year which would also help.
The wild card is that the Pacific Division is pretty weak. Vegas, Edmonton and Calgary all have pretty bright futures, but San Jose is a team clearly on the decline. Los Angeles is a team on the rise but their a couple years from making any discernible noise. Anaheim and Arizona are both weak teams spinning their wheels. I think some of us underestimate how disastrously bad the Taylor Hall trade was for Coyotes GM John Chayka. If Chayka did not think to lottery protect the 2020 first-rounder, I'd say that the Hall trade alone would be enough to cost him the job.
Ultimately, I think the best case scenario is that the Canucks end up with the 16th/17th pick, and the Devils get it for the 2020 draft. I don't want to see this pick deferred. But again, it's not the end of the world if the pick does transfer to 2021 -- the Devils should still have a pair of top 10 picks for 2020, and the 2021 draft is heavy with much-needed defense prospects.
nugg
NJ Hammerhead Bats!
Juolevi still has potential to develop into bottom-4 NHL D. Suffice to say the Canucks are certainly kicking themselves for taking Juolevi over Tkachuk or Sergachev, but that doesn't mean Juolevi can't become productive. I'd rank him as the #3 defenseman in the Vancouver system after Woo and Rathbone.
Sleeper Prospect of the Day:
LD Alexander Nikishin, Spartak KHL
Normally, when we talk about players who are third-round sleepers, we're taking about forwards who can improve a few areas of their game and make the NHL one day in the future as mid-pairing defensemen or second-line forwards. But what if I told you there is an 18 year-old kid already established in a top-4 role in the second-best hockey league in the world who has the physical tools to become an all-star #1D at the NHL level?
Well, of course you'd ask why you had not heard of him yet. I wish I had the answer to that. But I can tell you what he brings to the table. He's about 6'3-200 and as physical as any player in the entire 2020 draft class. Nikishin loves to throw open-ice hits, and has already emerged as a fierce intimidator despite playing against predominantly much older competition. If there is a single flaw in his game it's that he can cross the line because he loves to use his freakish/strength and power to make a mark on virtually every shift. I will go out on a limb and say he's not just the hardest-hitting defender available in the draft this year, he might be the hardest-hitting defenseman to come out of any draft in several years.
Okay, so I know what you're thinking: Steve is pumping the tires of yet another big, tough, plodding, defensive-minded defenseman. But what if I told you Nikishin also has deceptive top speed and good agility and edge work. This is a very good skater with high-end athleticism.
Okay, so I know what you're thinking: yep, another big, mobile defenseman with rock-like mitts who handles the puck like a hand-grenade. But what if I told you Nikishin is so good with the puck that he is often the team's first representative in shootouts. And what if I added that he is so confident with the puck on his stick that he is willing to pull off ridiculous moves with regularity in all three zones. And while I'm at it, we should add that he also has a bomb of a shot, able to beat goaltenders from the point clean when he has a good look.
I'm going to say that I'm at a loss finding a comparable for this kid. The way he can change the course of the game with the type of crushing open-ice hit that you want to replay 100x after you see it, or the way he can change the course of the game in the offensive zone with an absurd spin-o-rama followed by a laser-like pass onto a teammate's blade?
Nikishin actually makes me a bit mad at myself. I first noticed him early in the season when I saw him plaster 2020 first-round lock Rodion Amirov with one of the best hits I've seen all year. But a lack of buzz on him prevented me from researching too intensely. Well, with some extra time on my hands at home this week due to the pandemic, I spent some good time watching film on him, and he's already wrecked my first-round rankings. Alexander Nikishin is, plain and simple, a top 30 player in the 2020 draft class. I'd put him right after Sanderson and in the second-tier of LD alongside Guhle and Mukhamadullin.
Where will he be drafted in (hopefully) June? I'm not sure. I've seen him left off top 100 lists entirely, and I don't understand it for the life of me. I'd guess he's a third-rounder judging by the consensus lack of buzz on him. But if you watch some film on the kid, you'll probably agree that Alexander Nikishin is worth a whole lot more.
LD Alexander Nikishin, Spartak KHL
Normally, when we talk about players who are third-round sleepers, we're taking about forwards who can improve a few areas of their game and make the NHL one day in the future as mid-pairing defensemen or second-line forwards. But what if I told you there is an 18 year-old kid already established in a top-4 role in the second-best hockey league in the world who has the physical tools to become an all-star #1D at the NHL level?
Well, of course you'd ask why you had not heard of him yet. I wish I had the answer to that. But I can tell you what he brings to the table. He's about 6'3-200 and as physical as any player in the entire 2020 draft class. Nikishin loves to throw open-ice hits, and has already emerged as a fierce intimidator despite playing against predominantly much older competition. If there is a single flaw in his game it's that he can cross the line because he loves to use his freakish/strength and power to make a mark on virtually every shift. I will go out on a limb and say he's not just the hardest-hitting defender available in the draft this year, he might be the hardest-hitting defenseman to come out of any draft in several years.
Okay, so I know what you're thinking: Steve is pumping the tires of yet another big, tough, plodding, defensive-minded defenseman. But what if I told you Nikishin also has deceptive top speed and good agility and edge work. This is a very good skater with high-end athleticism.
Okay, so I know what you're thinking: yep, another big, mobile defenseman with rock-like mitts who handles the puck like a hand-grenade. But what if I told you Nikishin is so good with the puck that he is often the team's first representative in shootouts. And what if I added that he is so confident with the puck on his stick that he is willing to pull off ridiculous moves with regularity in all three zones. And while I'm at it, we should add that he also has a bomb of a shot, able to beat goaltenders from the point clean when he has a good look.
I'm going to say that I'm at a loss finding a comparable for this kid. The way he can change the course of the game with the type of crushing open-ice hit that you want to replay 100x after you see it, or the way he can change the course of the game in the offensive zone with an absurd spin-o-rama followed by a laser-like pass onto a teammate's blade?
Nikishin actually makes me a bit mad at myself. I first noticed him early in the season when I saw him plaster 2020 first-round lock Rodion Amirov with one of the best hits I've seen all year. But a lack of buzz on him prevented me from researching too intensely. Well, with some extra time on my hands at home this week due to the pandemic, I spent some good time watching film on him, and he's already wrecked my first-round rankings. Alexander Nikishin is, plain and simple, a top 30 player in the 2020 draft class. I'd put him right after Sanderson and in the second-tier of LD alongside Guhle and Mukhamadullin.
Where will he be drafted in (hopefully) June? I'm not sure. I've seen him left off top 100 lists entirely, and I don't understand it for the life of me. I'd guess he's a third-rounder judging by the consensus lack of buzz on him. But if you watch some film on the kid, you'll probably agree that Alexander Nikishin is worth a whole lot more.
My Finnish favourite team is Jokerit. I saw all Jokerit- Spartak games this season and couple Spartak playoff games and I have to agree with you that Nikishin is very special player. I don't understand why he is so underrated in the draft rankings. I would be surprised if he is available after 1 round and can't see a scenario where he is available still in the third round.
As long as you describe the player you are discussing properly I don’t think you have to be so self deprecating about your stated preferences for certain types of players. Sure your opinion will differ from others but you’ve never claimed that your thoughts are facts rather than observations. I guess what I’m saying is don’t let the critics get to you. This labor of love you share with us is a very welcome distraction at a very stressful time (I’m over 50 and my youngest has a chronic condition he has to take an immunosuppressant medication for) and these write ups bring great insight that I otherwise would completely miss. Thanks as always and please continue to share.
Sleeper Prospect of the Day:
RW (left shot) Veeti Miettinen, Espoo, FIN JR. A
Well, the pandemic sucks but at least it's given me a chance to research some intriguing prospects. Miettinen is a kid who caught my eye due to some eye-popping numbers, challenging to break several scoring records in Finland's top junior league -- 42 goals in 52 games! How did a 5'9-160 kid show such dominance in one of the toughest junior leagues in the world?
Miettinen offers some elite tools. He's the prototypical small offensive forward in that he combines excellent skating with high-end playmaking skills, but neither of these are as impressive as his shot. The kid's got a ripper which he can fire off quickly with deadly accuracy. Combine that with his ability to quickly change shooting angles through his edge work and inherent sneakiness, and you have yourselves a potential big-time goal scorer.
Perhaps my favorite aspect of Miettinen's game is his penchant for outthinking the opposition -- he's a puck hawk who has n almost supernatural gift for picking off opposing passes and stealing pucks from stickhandling opponents. This is not a one-way, diminutive offensive forward we're talking about here -- he's a 200-foot player with a terrific motor to match his high hockey IQ.
Of course, there are always problems with drafting a player this small. Miettinen is not going to win many battles in the corners, and although he's far from soft, physical defensemen aren't going to have much of a challenge clearing him out of their crease. But Miettinen is an offensive forward in the purest sense and I think he has the NHL upside of a second-line goal-scorer. Unlike most small offensive forwards, his all-around play and speed would indicate that even if he does not develop into a top-6 guy, he could still make an NHL roster in a bottom-6 role. This makes him a very good pick in the later rounds.
I've seen Miettinen ranked anywhere from a 3rd-round pick to a 6th or 7th. I'm not sure I would reach as high as the third, but he would be a nice grab for the Devils if size concerns by NHL franchises dropped him into the later rounds, as the organization can certainly benefit from adding more pure goal-scorers.
RW (left shot) Veeti Miettinen, Espoo, FIN JR. A
Well, the pandemic sucks but at least it's given me a chance to research some intriguing prospects. Miettinen is a kid who caught my eye due to some eye-popping numbers, challenging to break several scoring records in Finland's top junior league -- 42 goals in 52 games! How did a 5'9-160 kid show such dominance in one of the toughest junior leagues in the world?
Miettinen offers some elite tools. He's the prototypical small offensive forward in that he combines excellent skating with high-end playmaking skills, but neither of these are as impressive as his shot. The kid's got a ripper which he can fire off quickly with deadly accuracy. Combine that with his ability to quickly change shooting angles through his edge work and inherent sneakiness, and you have yourselves a potential big-time goal scorer.
Perhaps my favorite aspect of Miettinen's game is his penchant for outthinking the opposition -- he's a puck hawk who has n almost supernatural gift for picking off opposing passes and stealing pucks from stickhandling opponents. This is not a one-way, diminutive offensive forward we're talking about here -- he's a 200-foot player with a terrific motor to match his high hockey IQ.
Of course, there are always problems with drafting a player this small. Miettinen is not going to win many battles in the corners, and although he's far from soft, physical defensemen aren't going to have much of a challenge clearing him out of their crease. But Miettinen is an offensive forward in the purest sense and I think he has the NHL upside of a second-line goal-scorer. Unlike most small offensive forwards, his all-around play and speed would indicate that even if he does not develop into a top-6 guy, he could still make an NHL roster in a bottom-6 role. This makes him a very good pick in the later rounds.
I've seen Miettinen ranked anywhere from a 3rd-round pick to a 6th or 7th. I'm not sure I would reach as high as the third, but he would be a nice grab for the Devils if size concerns by NHL franchises dropped him into the later rounds, as the organization can certainly benefit from adding more pure goal-scorers.
I'm glad you agree with me, and thanks so much for chiming in. However, most of the scouting community is not as high on him, so I don't see Nikishin being drafted in the 1st round. To be honest, I've yet to see him crack the top 50 on a major ranking -- if you can find something that has him rated higher, I'd love to see it. I've read scouts who criticized his skating, which I strongly disagree with and I don't know where it came from.
The biggest criticism on Nikishin is his decision making -- and I do agree that he can be overzealous when trying to make a huge hit or highlight-reel offensive play. But is his decision making any more questionable than Poirier or Cormier, who are both widely considered late 1st round picks this year? Is it any more questionable than Broberg, who went 8th overall last year? I don't see it, and I would go so far as to opine that Nikishin has higher overall upside than any of those three players.
In my dream scenario, the Devils get Nikishin in the third round. There is certainly risk here, but the reward is immeasurable if he drops that far in the draft. I would take a chance on this kid as early as the late first round.
I wish the best for you and your family. Of course, this is far more important than hockey. What I love the most about sports is that it provides a distraction from the harsh realities of life, while bringing communities together... like our own little community on these HF boards.
Nothing I enjoy doing more than bringing these hard-working and talented kids into the public eye. They are all chasing a dream, and although they cannot all succeed as NHL-ers they all deserve their time in the sun.
I find the self-deprecation keeps me grounded, it's not like an insecurity thing. I hate reading know-it-all prospect experts (whom I will leave nameless) who are more interested in proving themselves right than engaging in discourse. This morning I wrote both Steve Kournianos and Cam Robinson for their opinions regarding Alex Nikishin, and they both took time from very busy schedules to respond -- a couple of great guys and elite prospect writers, there. Yesterday I wrote Andrew Forbes (prospect expert at my old stomping grounds of thehockeywriters.com) criticizing his ranking of Jack Quinn below Noel Gunler. Instead of being snooty about it, Andrew was extremely curious about my assessment of both prospects. Needless to say, I probably over-explained at great length. Ultimately, my goal was to get him to pay closer attention to Quinn and his enormous potential -- and I would not be shocked if Quinn was a few notches higher on the next Forbes ranking for THW.
Anyway, all my best to you and your family. And I've got some time on my hands the next few days which I plan to split between hockey prospecting and getting my fiction published. Everyone stay safe out there!
I found this Alexander Nikishin highlight video on YouTube and... wow. Just remember this is an 18 year old playing in the KHL, not prime-era Dustin Byfuglien.
Sleeper Prospect of the Day
LW Carter Savoie, Sherwood Park AJHL
Here's something you may never see again: a 5'9 forward from the AJHL without exceptional skating speed who could go as high as the early second round. Usually the mix of these three stigmas would keep a kid from getting scouted at all, but Savoie is no ordinary player.
The University of Denver commit is quite simply, something special. What makes him so intriguing is that, despite his size limitations and his decent but not great skating, every other aspect of his game is not just elite, it's like top-10 pick elite. Let's start with his shot -- it's just deadly. It's a bullet which he can get off at lightning speed, even with a larger defender draped all over him. And the accuracy? Well, Savoie might have the most accurate shooting in the entire draft.
The next eye-opening quality this kid brings to the table is his puck handling. Again, it's an elite tool -- he can stickhandle a can of corn through a locust plague. When he runs out of room, he has the foresight to draw the defense to him, open a lane -- and then the vision to hit a line-mate with a tape-to-tape laser.
The most surprising aspect of his game is Savoie's toughness and all around game. He's very strong for his size and knows it's his job to score -- he will never shrink away from the dirty areas to get a goal. Savoie is not only not afraid of physicality, he will even initiate it from time to time. He's even solid enough to win battles in the crease and along the boards with much bigger defensemen. He's a puck hawk defensively with good positioning, and his compete level is excellent.
I think we're looking at a player with top 6 upside in Savoie, certainly a prospect with 30+ goal upside in the NHL. The fact that his size/skating/AJHL-status are likely to frighten off many teams makes him an intriguing option, a player who could be taken as the early second round but also one who could drop into the late third, maybe even the early fourth. If the Devils 4th round pick rolled along and Savoie's name were still on the board, it would be a good idea to call it out. This kid can flat out score.
LW Carter Savoie, Sherwood Park AJHL
Here's something you may never see again: a 5'9 forward from the AJHL without exceptional skating speed who could go as high as the early second round. Usually the mix of these three stigmas would keep a kid from getting scouted at all, but Savoie is no ordinary player.
The University of Denver commit is quite simply, something special. What makes him so intriguing is that, despite his size limitations and his decent but not great skating, every other aspect of his game is not just elite, it's like top-10 pick elite. Let's start with his shot -- it's just deadly. It's a bullet which he can get off at lightning speed, even with a larger defender draped all over him. And the accuracy? Well, Savoie might have the most accurate shooting in the entire draft.
The next eye-opening quality this kid brings to the table is his puck handling. Again, it's an elite tool -- he can stickhandle a can of corn through a locust plague. When he runs out of room, he has the foresight to draw the defense to him, open a lane -- and then the vision to hit a line-mate with a tape-to-tape laser.
The most surprising aspect of his game is Savoie's toughness and all around game. He's very strong for his size and knows it's his job to score -- he will never shrink away from the dirty areas to get a goal. Savoie is not only not afraid of physicality, he will even initiate it from time to time. He's even solid enough to win battles in the crease and along the boards with much bigger defensemen. He's a puck hawk defensively with good positioning, and his compete level is excellent.
I think we're looking at a player with top 6 upside in Savoie, certainly a prospect with 30+ goal upside in the NHL. The fact that his size/skating/AJHL-status are likely to frighten off many teams makes him an intriguing option, a player who could be taken as the early second round but also one who could drop into the late third, maybe even the early fourth. If the Devils 4th round pick rolled along and Savoie's name were still on the board, it would be a good idea to call it out. This kid can flat out score.
And you want me to take your opinion seriously from now onward? Fool me once, fool me twice...
But hattrick.
The biggest risk is coming from not having a 2nd or 3rd round pick in this draft.
thethinglonger
Castron & Crew
For anybody wondering, this is the older brother of the 2022-eligible phenom, Matthew Savoie. Matthew applied for exceptional status to the WHL for this season (along with Shane Wright for the OHL). Wright was granted while Savoie was given a partial grant, allowing him to play roughly half the season in the WHL. It's not so much a difference in skill between Wright and Savoie, but rather the fact that the WHL has never had a player with exceptional status whereas the OHL has had the majority.
Anyways, Carter is ridiculously talented and I'd be surprised if he's still on the board by 3rd round. University of Denver does a fantastic job recruiting.
Thanks for the additional information as always! And I agree you're probably correct about Savoie's draft position. I'm curious because small players who lack high-end skating are often ignored by several scouting departments. His offensive tools and overall game are so good I could see him going in the late first round, but I said the same things about Nick Robertson last year, and he didn't go until the middle of the second round. Would you agree that's a good comparable in terms of draft position?
Sleeper Prospect of the Day:
LD Ronan Seeley, Everett WHL
In the past decades, the valuation of offensive defensemen has heightened while the valuation of shut-down D has clearly dropped. Somehow Seeley has dropped under this radar. An excellent skater with high-end passing skills and very strong offensive instincts, the 6'0-175 kid has put up an excellent 32 points in 63 games despite being fourth on the depth chart of one of the best teams in the WHL behind two already-drafted rearguards and an overager.
Seeley's greatest strengths are, as stated, his skating and vision. This makes him a force on break-outs and break-ins. He has very good abilities for gaining the opposing blueline with possession and then either leading a teammate with a strong entry pass or, quite often, joining the rush himself, almost as a fourth forward.
As with most draft "sleepers", Seeley has some aspects in his game to work on. His shot is accurate and he gets it off with nice quickness, but lacks power. He seems to know this and thus prefers to dish to teammates from the point, but when joining the rush he is not hesitant to fire from the circles. Defensively, he is actually very good positionally, but he needs to work on his strength and lacks a physical element to his game. He can be beaten along the boards and in the crease, though he is strong positionally and he utilizes both this and his excellent skating to be very tough to beat in open ice off opposing rushes.
What is projectable in Seeley's future is a Will Butcher-type, second pairing/2PP offensive defenseman, but with far superior skating ability and a bit more size. The reason to mention this kid in a "draft sleeper" capsule is that he seems to have been very overlooked due to his position on the depth chart with a very strong Everett team which would have been a legit Memorial Cup contender were it not for the suspension of the season. I think this is a kid who could certainly fall to the 4th/5th rounds, possibly even later. This is disproportionately low for a kid with his combination of solid size, terrific skating, and very good offensive acumen.
LD Ronan Seeley, Everett WHL
In the past decades, the valuation of offensive defensemen has heightened while the valuation of shut-down D has clearly dropped. Somehow Seeley has dropped under this radar. An excellent skater with high-end passing skills and very strong offensive instincts, the 6'0-175 kid has put up an excellent 32 points in 63 games despite being fourth on the depth chart of one of the best teams in the WHL behind two already-drafted rearguards and an overager.
Seeley's greatest strengths are, as stated, his skating and vision. This makes him a force on break-outs and break-ins. He has very good abilities for gaining the opposing blueline with possession and then either leading a teammate with a strong entry pass or, quite often, joining the rush himself, almost as a fourth forward.
As with most draft "sleepers", Seeley has some aspects in his game to work on. His shot is accurate and he gets it off with nice quickness, but lacks power. He seems to know this and thus prefers to dish to teammates from the point, but when joining the rush he is not hesitant to fire from the circles. Defensively, he is actually very good positionally, but he needs to work on his strength and lacks a physical element to his game. He can be beaten along the boards and in the crease, though he is strong positionally and he utilizes both this and his excellent skating to be very tough to beat in open ice off opposing rushes.
What is projectable in Seeley's future is a Will Butcher-type, second pairing/2PP offensive defenseman, but with far superior skating ability and a bit more size. The reason to mention this kid in a "draft sleeper" capsule is that he seems to have been very overlooked due to his position on the depth chart with a very strong Everett team which would have been a legit Memorial Cup contender were it not for the suspension of the season. I think this is a kid who could certainly fall to the 4th/5th rounds, possibly even later. This is disproportionately low for a kid with his combination of solid size, terrific skating, and very good offensive acumen.
Draft Capsule:
LD Jeremie Poirier, Saint John QMJHL
I've already gotten a few questions from friends about leaving Poirier off my initial 2020 draft first-round rankings. Poirier is regularly ranked in the top 20 by many pundits, and it's not without good reason. His highlight reel is as good as any defenseman in this draft -- his hands are so good they are almost magical; with the puck in space no one from the class of 2020 is better. He can turn a seemingly nothing play at the blueline into a pair of posterized opponents and a goal with an effortless fluidity which is almost supernatural. This is the top reason for his outstanding stat-line of 20g-33a-53p in just 63 games. In the offensive zone, he is dangerous every time he touches the puck, and also can display tremendous passing vision and owns an excellent shot which he gets off with a pro-level release. He is incredible at beating players one-on-one, finding open space, and then using a quick release in making a nothing entry into a high-danger scoring opportunity. His instincts in anticipating open space to position himself for scoring chances is almost uncanny. Poirier is a high-volume shooter who is terrific at getting his shot through traffic on net. He's quite simply a dynamic player and very fun to watch. Poirier has the tools to score at any level, which is why he is considered by some to be a top 20 pick.
Yet as exciting as his own highlight reel is, Poirier is also going to be a fixture in opponents' highlight reels. A combination of a riverboat gambler all-offensive mentality, questionable positioning/gap control, even more questionable decision-making and average top speed are a caustic mix which lead -- extremely regularly -- to high-end scoring opportunities by the opposition. There have been a ton of plays where he turns the puck over trying to stickhandle through two opponents instead of passing off or dumping in, leading to odd man rushes in the other direction. When opposing forwards carry the puck in his own zone with speed, Poirier often gives them the blueline, then will back away instead of controlling the gap, giving them time to read the play. For faster opposition, they can turn on the jets and still beat him to the outside or even inside, due to Poirier's skating limitations.
Most concerning is the fact that, even at 6'0-200 in an amateur league, Poirier's compete level needs work and his lack of a physical game is frustrating. He almost seems disinterested in times in defending, as if waiting for the puck to magically come to him. Though some elements of his defensive game have improved over the past year, most notably his stick-work and anticipation in cutting down passing lanes, there are several areas of concern which are far from answerable at this point.
Would I draft a player like Poirier? Well, the answer to that question is yes. Though there is a tremendous amount of risk, we're talking about the rare defenseman with 50-60 point upside at the NHL level; a kid with simply electrifying hands and several dynamic qualities to his offensive game. But, would I use a 1st round pick on Poirier, which a team will need to if they want a player of his enormous potential? I would not. I could deal with the riverboat gambler mentality which leads to reverse odd-man rushes, or I could deal with the skating issues, or I could deal with the poor defensive zone play, or I could deal with the questions about compete level -- but the combination of all of them is just too nerve-wracking. Instead, I see Poirier as a mid-to-late second round pick -- if everything comes together with him, you could have a superstar. But there are just so many questions which I do not like to ask with my earliest picks.
LD Jeremie Poirier, Saint John QMJHL
I've already gotten a few questions from friends about leaving Poirier off my initial 2020 draft first-round rankings. Poirier is regularly ranked in the top 20 by many pundits, and it's not without good reason. His highlight reel is as good as any defenseman in this draft -- his hands are so good they are almost magical; with the puck in space no one from the class of 2020 is better. He can turn a seemingly nothing play at the blueline into a pair of posterized opponents and a goal with an effortless fluidity which is almost supernatural. This is the top reason for his outstanding stat-line of 20g-33a-53p in just 63 games. In the offensive zone, he is dangerous every time he touches the puck, and also can display tremendous passing vision and owns an excellent shot which he gets off with a pro-level release. He is incredible at beating players one-on-one, finding open space, and then using a quick release in making a nothing entry into a high-danger scoring opportunity. His instincts in anticipating open space to position himself for scoring chances is almost uncanny. Poirier is a high-volume shooter who is terrific at getting his shot through traffic on net. He's quite simply a dynamic player and very fun to watch. Poirier has the tools to score at any level, which is why he is considered by some to be a top 20 pick.
Yet as exciting as his own highlight reel is, Poirier is also going to be a fixture in opponents' highlight reels. A combination of a riverboat gambler all-offensive mentality, questionable positioning/gap control, even more questionable decision-making and average top speed are a caustic mix which lead -- extremely regularly -- to high-end scoring opportunities by the opposition. There have been a ton of plays where he turns the puck over trying to stickhandle through two opponents instead of passing off or dumping in, leading to odd man rushes in the other direction. When opposing forwards carry the puck in his own zone with speed, Poirier often gives them the blueline, then will back away instead of controlling the gap, giving them time to read the play. For faster opposition, they can turn on the jets and still beat him to the outside or even inside, due to Poirier's skating limitations.
Most concerning is the fact that, even at 6'0-200 in an amateur league, Poirier's compete level needs work and his lack of a physical game is frustrating. He almost seems disinterested in times in defending, as if waiting for the puck to magically come to him. Though some elements of his defensive game have improved over the past year, most notably his stick-work and anticipation in cutting down passing lanes, there are several areas of concern which are far from answerable at this point.
Would I draft a player like Poirier? Well, the answer to that question is yes. Though there is a tremendous amount of risk, we're talking about the rare defenseman with 50-60 point upside at the NHL level; a kid with simply electrifying hands and several dynamic qualities to his offensive game. But, would I use a 1st round pick on Poirier, which a team will need to if they want a player of his enormous potential? I would not. I could deal with the riverboat gambler mentality which leads to reverse odd-man rushes, or I could deal with the skating issues, or I could deal with the poor defensive zone play, or I could deal with the questions about compete level -- but the combination of all of them is just too nerve-wracking. Instead, I see Poirier as a mid-to-late second round pick -- if everything comes together with him, you could have a superstar. But there are just so many questions which I do not like to ask with my earliest picks.
I’d have a very tough time investing a first or second round pick in a defender with average wheels (which likely means they will be below average in the NHL if he doesn’t work with maximum effort on that) who is a subpar defender. That’s at least one physical trait he may not overcome and his lack of urgency does not give me confidence he will put in the mental effort to learn the skills he can control. Now having said that I haven’t watched any video or seen him in any games. This is just my thought on player selection in general. I’ll gamble on physically limited guys who are highly competitive and have a good attitude and some element of humility that will allow them to accept critical input and work on things. That’s a guy like Butcher who will go as far as his physical limitations allow but at least he will be smart and give his all. If Poirrier is not a try hard I wouldn’t put him in that category. As always thanks for sharing this stuff. Really appreciated during this time of public crisis.
