Prospect Info: Ives Preliminary 2020 Draft Rankings (1-32 for March)

StevenToddIves

Registered User
May 18, 2013
10,415
24,805
Brooklyn, NY
2020 Draft — Preliminary Rankings

Okay, so this took me a lot of time I could have been spending at the bottom of a whiskey bottle wondering how Paul Fenton got a job as an NHL GM but I didn't, so take it easy on me. Again, this is a preliminary ranking; I hope to have a 2-round (top 62) by May and a 3-round (93) for draft day in June. And -- while I greatly look forwards to all the "where are Poirier and Gunler???" questions, it's time to start drinking.

1 LW Alex Lafreniere, Rimouski QMJHL
Put it in the bank, he will be a star. A dominant winger in every aspect of the game who excels on every millimeter of the ice for every second of every shift. His compete level and hockey IQ are off the charts, and he’s only going to get better.
2 C Quinton Byfield, Sudbury OHL
Freakish athletic ability combined with an advanced capability to process the game and outstanding vision. His potential is perhaps the highest in this draft; ideally he could be a 6’5-240 center with elite skating and plus-plus tools across the board.
3 C/LW Tim Stutzle, Mannheim DEL
One of the best skaters in the draft, this young German phenom has the vision, hands and mind to keep up. It’s as if the pace of the entire game picks up whenever the puck is on his stick. The WJC tourney showed he could not only play with the best players his age in the world, he could dominate them.
4 C Marco Rossi, Ottawa OHL
The best 2-way forward in this draft will also become the best Austrian ever to play the sport of hockey. His offensive skills border or the sublime, and when you combine that with a compete level which is second to none in the draft class you get a future superstar center at the NHL level.
5 RD Jamie Drysdale, Erie OHL
A breakout machine in the defensive zone, a break-in machine in the offensive zone. Drysdale combines off-the-charts skating and vision, his outlet passes are surgical. He is extremely comparable to Cale Makar at a similar age — and despite being slightly undersized at 5’11-175, the kid is pretty good in his own zone.
6 RW Alexander Holtz, Djurgardens SHL
The Patrick Laine of the class of 2020, Holtz can flat out shoot the lights out. You know his shot is coming, you know where it’s going, you still can’t stop it. That’s a rare and dangerous weapon. But don’t think it’s Holtz’s only weapon — he’s big and fast and plays a terrific and complete 200-foot game.
7 LW/RW Lucas Raymond, Frolunda SHL
Raymond is another contender for both best skater in the class of 2020 and best passing/vision. Though smaller and not as dangerous a shooter as fellow Swedish “Terror Twin” Holtz, Raymond also plays a tenacious and complete game. Don’t let his lack of statistical output for Frolunda scare you off — he has excelled at every international tournament versus players in his own peer group.
8 LW Cole Perfetti, Saginaw OHL
This kid is like a magician on the ice. Despite relatively unremarkable physical tools, his super-computer like hockey IQ and instincts allow him to slow the game down and make offensive plays which mystify and dazzle. He’s going to score and score big at every level, including the NHL.
9 LD Jake Sanderson, US-NTDP USHL
The son of ex-NHL-er Geoff actually reminds me more of Ryan Suter. Despite lacking one standout skill, Sanderson is simply excellent across the board in every aspect of the game. He projects to a future top-pairing, 25-minute per game, all-situations guy — a rare commodity in today’s NHL.
10 RW Jack Quinn, Ottawa OHL
Thus far, I would say Quinn has somehow flown under the radar as the most underrated prospect in the 2020 draft class. I do not expect this to last — his goal scoring is on par with top-10 locks Holtz and Perfetti, and he also displays excellent vision and a complete, two-way game. I do not see how some pundits are still leaving a potential 40-goal scoring, two-way first line winger out of their top 20s, but that’s not a mistake I’m willing to make — he’s locked in my top 10.
11 C/LW Jan Mysak, Hamilton OHL
The best Czech export in the class of 2020 is fast, tenacious and can downright snipe. He’s smart with and without the puck and can play up and down the lineup at either center or the wing; Mysak is a force on both the PP and PK. His upside is a top-line, high-scoring forward.
12 C Anton Lundell, HIFK FIN
Big-bodied two-way centers who play near-flawless two-way games are a precious commodity in the NHL, which gives Lundell a better chance than any prospect to break into the “Big 8” with an early selection. The question with Lundell is whether he possesses the puck-skills to be a top line pivot, or is he an all-situation 2C providing secondary offense at the NHL level?
13 C Connor Zary, Kamloops WHL
Very comparable to Lundell in that Zary is an outstanding two-way center with an astounding all-around game. No one doubts this, but the question with him is also whether he projects to 1C or 2C in the NHL. Zary is not as big as Lundell, but he plays at an even faster pace — I’d say the demarcation between the two is razor thin.
14 LW Rodion Amirov, Salavat Ufa, KHL
A highly skilled winger with a projectable 6’0-170 frame, Amirov has the tool kit to be a top-line scorer for whichever team drafts him. He is a very good skater with a penchant for turning seemingly routine plays into high-danger offensive opportunities.
15 RD Braden Schneider, Brandon WHL
Though the NHL trend has gone towards offensive-minded rearguards, I would confidently say that you win more with guys like Schneider on your backline. He’s big (6’2-200), physical, positionally sound, skates well and routinely shuts down opposing star forwards. Is he ever going to score 60 points? No, but he’s very smart and capable with the puck and has a very high floor as a smothering defensive force with 40+ point potential.
16 C/RW Dawson Mercer, Drummondville QMJHL
Another guy you win with! Mercer can slot all over the line-up; he’s a stud goal-scorer with a wicked shot for the Voltigeurs, but on Team Canada’s gold medal winning team he was a smothering, physical force on a checking line. He’s versatile enough to excel on wing or at center, his hockey smarts are off the charts, his compete level sky-high. The type of player you want on the ice when either up or down by one goal in the final minute of a big game.
17 G Yaroslav Askarov, Ska-St. Petersburg, VHL
Perhaps the highest regarded draft-eligible goaltender since Carey Price going into the 2019-20 season, Askarov had a tough WJC and inconsistent season. As goaltenders represent the most difficult position in terms of projectability, he is still considered a worthy choice in the top 10 by some scouts and a risk at the end of the first round by others.
18 LD Shakir Mukhamadullin, Salavat Ufa, KHL
To me, he is kind of the mystery man for draft-eligible 2020 defensemen — and I don’t mean just how to spell his name. Mukhamadullin is a very good skater who plays a shut-down style with extreme physical edge, but can sometimes be caught over-committing. He has a cannon of a shot — as hard as any D in this class — but needs a ton of work with accuracy. If everything comes together, we could be talking about one of the better future D in the NHL. If it doesn’t? We could be talking about one of the better future D in the KHL.
19 LW/C Dylan Holloway, Wisconsin NCAA
No mystery here — simply a big, bull in a china shop forward with an extraordinary compete level and high hockey IQ. Holloway hits everything that moves and hits it hard. Not a guy to carry the play, but a power forward with the requisite skill to complement a scoring line and score copiously from the dirty areas.
20 LD Kaiden Guhle, Prince Albert WHL
Like fellow WHL stud defenseman Schneider, Guhle is likely a jack-of-all-trades mid-pairing D; rather than a first pairing type. An excellent skater with a booming point blast, Guhle has higher offensive upside. He’s also physical and smart enough to shine in a shut-down role. Nothing not to like here.
21 C Hendrix Lapierre, Chicoutimi, QMJHL
Perhaps the wild card of the 2020 class, Lapierre’s vision/passing ability are on par with anyone in the “Big 8” and he is an outstanding skater. But three concussions in one calendar year are enough to frighten me away from using a top 20 overall pick.
22 C/RW Mavrik Bourque, Shawinigan QMJHL
Not big or a speed demon, Bourque makes up for this with extraordinary vision and a hockey IQ in the stratosphere. His motor is always set on warp-drive and he plays a solid two-way game; certain to be a top-6 presence and fan favorite for any team’s fan base.
23 RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia OHL
Another sniping RW for Devils fans to know. One of the better skaters in the draft, the son of ex-NHL-er Yanic can absolutely wire the puck. He is also a top-notch puck handler and creative puck distributor. The only aspect keeping him from a top 15 slot is a penchant for poor two-way play and an occasional propensity to float. If coaching and development alleviate these concerns, Perreault has big-time potential as a top-line scorer.
24 RD Justin Barron, Halifax QMJHL
At the outset of the season, I would have expected Barron to be higher on this list, but he’s had a tumultuous 2019-20 campaign. A slow start was accentuated by serious injury difficulties brought on by blood clots. At his best, he is a do-it-all, two-way D with a tantalizing mix of size (6’2-195) and plus-skating who is extremely intelligent both with and without the puck.
25 C/LW Marat Khusnutdinov, SKA-St. Petersburg MHL
Most people have not heard of this kid, because he is often left off top 100 rankings, much less the first round. I’m here to tell you why they are all wrong. Were Khusnutdinov 6’0 instead of 5’9 or from Toronto instead of Russia, he’d be all over everyone’s radar. A caustic mix of blinding speed, an elite shot, tenacious two-way play and spectacular puck skills make him impossible to ignore if you’re lucky enough to see him on the ice. I’m going out on a limb and saying he has NHL top-line upside.
26 RW/C Seth Jarvis, Portland Winterhawks WHL
Great hands, great feet and a great mind for thinking one step ahead of the game — that’s the best way to describe Jarvis. He’s mostly a pivot now, but I suspect his NHL future lies on the wing. If he learns to persevere with more tenacity against tight-checking and physical defenses, the sky is the limit for him.
27 C Vasily Ponomarev, Shawinigan QMJHL
A creative, shifty and fast player with high-end hand-eye coordination, Ponomarev has a Datsyuk-ian ability to make something out of nothing. He’s a outstanding two-way player with a high motor and I’d go so far to call him a weapon on all special teams, penalty kill or power play.
28 LD Ryan O’Rourke, Sault Ste. Marie OHL
Again, anyone who reads my hockey ramblings knows how much I value the physical, shut-down defenseman. One could call O’Rourke “prototypical” in this respect — he engages physically at every opportunity; he’s a bruiser. He’s smart with the puck and can unload a devastating shot. But most of all, he makes you battle for every inch of ice, and this is not a kid who loses many battles.
29 LW JJ Peterka, EHC Munchen DEL
Two Germans drafted in the NHL first round? It could happen. Peterka is an outstanding skater who plays the game at light-speed with a high intensity level. Combine that with very nice puck skills and scoring ability and you have a heck of a prospect on your hands.
30 RW Sam Colangelo, Chicago USHL
A 6’2-205 power winger with high-end scoring ability and a complete game? Yes, please. If this kid can improve his skating a notch, especially acceleration, his development could go on a massive upswing and make him one of the steals of 2020.
31 LW Jake Neighbours, Edmonton WHL
Hockey is different from real life in a few ways. One of them is that I dislike nasty people in real life — but in hockey I love them. Neighbours is not only a highly-skilled winger who can compliment any scoring line, he also plays with tremendous edge. It’s as if anything between him and the opposing goal is an impediment to be run over with maximum mean. I’d hate him if I had to play against him, but I’d draft him in the first round.
32 C Jaromir Pitlik, Soo Greyhounds OHL
There are some players who you take a chance on due to their overall potential despite their level of play as a draft eligible — Pitlik is one of those. A 6’3-200 pivot with an overflowing offensive tool kit — well, I’ll overlook some of his positional difficulties and a bit of clunkiness in his skating stride. He’s a four year investment which could pay off in huge dividends at the NHL level.

All “Just Missed” Team

C Ty Similanic
LW Roni Hirvonen
RW Ozzy Wiesblatt
LD Emil Andrae
RD Topi Niemela
G Joel Blomqvist

P.S.
My "sleeper prospect of the day" posts will also likely be included on this thread.

P.P.S.
A pre-emptive thank you and #$%@ you to anyone who points out any typos I may have made due to lack of sleep.
 
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Davegarri

Much Doge, Wow Moon
Jan 8, 2014
5,677
3,522
NJ
This is an awesome read as always. Just want to say thank you for your time and effort you put into these.

Now grab another whiskey bottle and get working on the 2nd round! :sarcasm:
 

TBF1972

Registered User
May 19, 2018
7,855
6,304
Thanks for the great work.
4 C Marco Rossi, Ottawa OHL
The best 2-way forward in this draft will also become the best Austrian ever to play the sport of hockey. His offensive skills border or the sublime, and when you combine that with a compete level which is second to none in the draft class you get a future superstar center at the NHL level.
For you it's a given he will have the 'better' career than Thomas Vanek?
 

My3Sons

Nobody told me there'd be days like these...
Sponsor
As the other posters have said, thanks for the effort you put into this. You are forthright about your perspective on prospects (valuing physical defenders that can skate and play in today's NHL for example) and your willingness to explain your decisions to those of us with follow up questions is always welcomed. Thanks again....
 

StevenToddIves

Registered User
May 18, 2013
10,415
24,805
Brooklyn, NY
Thanks for the great work.

For you it's a given he will have the 'better' career than Thomas Vanek?

You can't do rankings if you're not prone to bold statements, I guess.

I am ridiculously high on Rossi. He is a potentially elite two-way center with almost absurd vision/passing skills. His skating is elite and his propensity for taking the middle of the ice on break-ins creates a plethora of scoring opportunities. Mentioning his two-way play, he is the rare forwards who is also a breakout machine -- he knows when to help out his defensemen, and can get the puck out of danger with either a laser-like outlet pass or by using his elite skating/stickhandling to clear it out himself. Marco Rossi is simply an elite hockey prospect in every sense, the best two-way forward in this draft and capable of putting up huge scoring totals at the NHL level.

If you don't have time to watch the Ottawa 67s, here's a very good video which explains quite well many of the facets of his game which make him a top 5 prospect for the 2020 draft:

 

Nubmer6

Sleep is a poor substitute for caffeine
Sponsor
Jul 14, 2013
13,743
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The Village
2020 Draft — Preliminary Rankings

Okay, so this took me a lot of time I could have been spending at the bottom of a whiskey bottle wondering how Paul Fenton got a job as an NHL GM but I didn't, so take it easy on me. Again, this is a preliminary ranking; I hope to have a 2-round (top 62) by May and a 3-round (93) for draft day in June. And -- while I greatly look forwards to all the "where are Poirier and Gunler???" questions, it's time to start drinking.

...

P.S.
My "sleeper prospect of the day" posts will also likely be included on this thread.

P.P.S.
A pre-emptive thank you and #$%@ you to anyone who points out any typos I may have made due to lack of sleep.

Beware the Ives of March.

Ok. I'll show myself out now.
 

TBF1972

Registered User
May 19, 2018
7,855
6,304
You can't do rankings if you're not prone to bold statements, I guess.

I am ridiculously high on Rossi. He is a potentially elite two-way center with almost absurd vision/passing skills. His skating is elite and his propensity for taking the middle of the ice on break-ins creates a plethora of scoring opportunities. Mentioning his two-way play, he is the rare forwards who is also a breakout machine -- he knows when to help out his defensemen, and can get the puck out of danger with either a laser-like outlet pass or by using his elite skating/stickhandling to clear it out himself. Marco Rossi is simply an elite hockey prospect in every sense, the best two-way forward in this draft and capable of putting up huge scoring totals at the NHL level.

If you don't have time to watch the Ottawa 67s, here's a very good video which explains quite well many of the facets of his game which make him a top 5 prospect for the 2020 draft:


Thanks for the link. I will watch.

I am not knowledgeable enough to disagree with you. Just Vanek had a long and quite successful NHL career with one PPG season. So calling Rossi the best Austrian NHL player ever, implies he will for sure (or at least most likely) do better than Vanek at the NHL level. But maybe you simply forgot about him (because of his name), as his parents are from Czech and Slovakia, but he was born and raised in Austria.
 

StevenToddIves

Registered User
May 18, 2013
10,415
24,805
Brooklyn, NY
I was checking out my final 2019 draft rankings this week, and comparing them to some other major rankings and the way the draft actually went.

Prospect Info: - 2019 NHL Draft; STI Final Rankings

It's funny, because in order to write things things with any degree of conviction, you have to stick your neck out a lot. You make a mistake, and people are going to call you out on it for pretty much ever. Which is to say, yes I had Patrick over Hischier in 2017, and I expect to hear about it until 2057. But people don't look back and tell you what you had right very often. Looking back on my 2019 rankings, it's arguable that I did as well as anyone in the business.

So, it's time for a round of "Things I Nailed And Places I Failed".

Places I Failed:
1)Alex Newhook: earlier in the season I had him in my top 10, and I dropped him down to #13 on my final rankings. In a redraft, he likely goes top 7. What led to my mistake? I was a victim of my own recency bias -- leading up to my final rankings I spent little time watching BCHL film and it led me to not like Newhook less, but rather to like other prospects more. I won't make the mistake again.
2)Undeniable love for defensive defensemen: Anyone who reads me knows how highly I value these guys -- I think you win with them. However, as much as I adored Matthew Robertson and Case McCarthy and Kaeden Korczak, in a re-draft they would not being going where I ranked them at #17, #31 & #33. And ranking Jake Lee at #48 just ahead of high-upside forwards like Patrick Puistola and Nolan Foote was certainly not the best call. I'm going to try to improve this in the future by tempering my own bias with a bit more realism.
3)Peyton Krebs: I still love this kid, but 6th overall? Not over players like Dach, Cozens, Caufield and Newhook.
4)Shane Pinto: I loved him every time I watched him and still was idiotic enough to allow my own instinct to be tempered by some other prospect evaluators I communicate with, who were very skeptical of him. I ranked him at the back end of the second round and was thus just as shocked as everyone else in the draft-writing community when Ottawa took him with the first pick of day two of the draft. In a re-draft, Pinto is a surefire first round pick, there's no doubt about it. So, I'm going to fix this by sticking to my guns more with obscure players I love in the 2020 draft, such as Marat Khusnutdinov.

Things I Nailed
1)Bowen Byram #3: sure, a lot of people ended the year with him in their top 3. But I had him at #3 overall as early as November, when he was on the back end of most top 10s.
2)Trevor Zegras #5: I wasn't the only person with him in my top 5, but many "experts" had him outside of their top 10 entirely. Nine months later, he's probably the #1 forward prospect in all of hockey.
3)Moritz Seider as my #2 defenseman in the entire draft: Some people had this kid out of their first round entirely. Now he's the best defenseman in the entire AHL as a teenager, which is patently unheard of. He's going to be a beast in the NHL. Steve Yzerman clearly saw what I saw, and it's looking like we all saw the right things.
4)Arthur Kaliyev #14: Look, he has some concerns with compete level/200-foot play. His personality is certainly... unique. But his talent is simply undeniable. People dropping him out of their first round rankings because he's a bit of an odd kid was simply absurd, and Kaliyev is making them eat their criticisms of him with another dominant season for the Hamilton Bulldogs.
5)Jamieson Rees #19: A friend of mine in the prospect writing community saw my rankings and his first comment was "Rees in the top 20? Whew." Well, he's fast, gritty and averaging over an assist per game for the Sarnia Sting. In my mind, he's the top prospect for Carolina and it's not particularly close. Time will still tell on this one, but I'm feeling pretty good about it.
6)Dorofeyev/Nick Robertson/Hoglander -- #26-#28: When you're hot you're hot, I guess. Most draft rankings had this trio as second rounders, but in any redraft imaginable they all go in the first -- Robertson and Hoglander even higher than where I ranked them.
7)Trevor Janicke #40: The highest ranking this kid had, he wound up going in the 5th round to Anaheim. I'm sticking to it -- this kid is a fierce competitor and I see him developing into one of the top 3rd line centers in the NHL.
8)Philip Broberg #46: The ranking I took the most flak for, by far. He was a fixture in top 10s and I saw him ranked as high as #5 overall. Edmonton took him #8 overall and most of the media lauded it as a great pick. Nine months later, there's no way he goes in a re-draft of the first round. He would likely be taken around where I ranked him... at #46 overall, which I was heavily criticized for.
9)Adam Beckman #57: I liked his offensive tools and thought he could be a top 6 goal-scoring winger in the NHL, plus I was intrigued by a late growth spurt which shot him up four inches to 6'1. I was confident ranking him higher than the consensus, and in a re-draft he could go in the late first round.
10)Patrick Moynihan #93: Many saw him as a borderline 4th liner at the NHL level, I compared him to Ryan Callahan and said he could score at the NHL level and star in a mid-6 role. Now he's the third-highest goal scorer among NCAA freshmen, and looks like a future scoring mid-6 NHL RW.

I'd love to hear your opinions on my 2019 rankings on this thread. I'm pretty proud of the way things look so far, but maybe you think there are other things I nailed or failed on.
 
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Edmonton East

BUT the ADvaNCEd STatS...
Nov 25, 2007
6,491
2,447
I was checking out my final 2019 draft rankings this week, and comparing them to some other major rankings and the way the draft actually went.

Prospect Info: - 2019 NHL Draft; STI Final Rankings

It's funny, because in order to write things things with any degree of conviction, you have to stick your neck out a lot. You make a mistake, and people are going to call you out on it for pretty much ever. Which is to say, yes I had Patrick over Hischier in 2017, and I expect to hear about it until 2057. But people don't look back and tell you what you had right very often. Looking back on my 2019 rankings, it's arguable that I did as well as anyone in the business.

So, it's time for a round of "Things I Nailed And Places I Failed".

Places I Failed:
1)Alex Newhook: earlier in the season I had him in my top 10, and I dropped him down to #13 on my final rankings. In a redraft, he likely goes top 7. What led to my mistake? I was a victim of my own recency bias -- leading up to my final rankings I spent little time watching BCHL film and it led me to not like Newhook less, but rather to like other prospects more. I won't make the mistake again.
2)Undeniable love for defensive defensemen: Anyone who reads me knows how highly I value these guys -- I think you win with them. However, as much as I adored Matthew Robertson and Case McCarthy and Kaeden Korczak, in a re-draft they would not being going where I ranked them at #17, #31 & #33. And ranking Jake Lee at #48 just ahead of high-upside forwards like Patrick Puistola and Nolan Foote was certainly not the best call. I'm going to try to improve this in the future by tempering my own bias with a bit more realism.
3)Peyton Krebs: I still love this kid, but 6th overall? Not over players like Dach, Cozens, Caufield and Newhook.
4)Shane Pinto: I loved him every time I watched him and still was idiotic enough to allow my own instinct to be tempered by some other prospect evaluators I communicate with, who were very skeptical of him. I ranked him at the back end of the second round and was thus just as shocked as everyone else in the draft-writing community when Ottawa took him with the first pick of day two of the draft. In a re-draft, Pinto is a surefire first round pick, there's no doubt about it. So, I'm going to fix this by sticking to my guns more with obscure players I love in the 2020 draft, such as Marat Khusnutdinov.

Things I Nailed
1)Bowen Byram #3: sure, a lot of people ended the year with him in their top 3. But I had him at #3 overall as early as November, when he was on the back end of most top 10s.
2)Trevor Zegras #5: I wasn't the only person with him in my top 5, but many "experts" had him outside of their top 10 entirely. Nine months later, he's probably the #1 forward prospect in all of hockey.
3)Moritz Seider as my #2 defenseman in the entire draft: Some people had this kid out of their first round entirely. Now he's the best defenseman in the entire AHL as a teenager, which is patently unheard of. He's going to be a beast in the NHL. Steve Yzerman clearly saw what I saw, and it's looking like we all saw the right things.
4)Arthur Kaliyev #14: Look, he has some concerns with compete level/200-foot play. His personality is certainly... unique. But his talent is simply undeniable. People dropping him out of their first round rankings because he's a bit of an odd kid was simply absurd, and Kaliyev is making them eat their criticisms of him with another dominant season for the Hamilton Bulldogs.
5)Jamieson Rees #19: A friend of mine in the prospect writing community saw my rankings and his first comment was "Rees in the top 20? Whew." Well, he's fast, gritty and averaging over an assist per game for the Sarnia Sting. In my mind, he's the top prospect for Carolina and it's not particularly close. Time will still tell on this one, but I'm feeling pretty good about it.
6)Dorofeyev/Nick Robertson/Hoglander -- #26-#28: When you're hot you're hot, I guess. Most draft rankings had this trio as second rounders, but in any redraft imaginable they all go in the first -- Robertson and Hoglander even higher than where I ranked them.
7)Trevor Janicke #40: The highest ranking this kid had, he wound up going in the 5th round to Anaheim. I'm sticking to it -- this kid is a fierce competitor and I see him developing into one of the top 3rd line centers in the NHL.
8)Philip Broberg #46: The ranking I took the most flak for, by far. He was a fixture in top 10s and I saw him ranked as high as #5 overall. Edmonton took him #8 overall and most of the media lauded it as a great pick. Nine months later, there's no way he goes in a re-draft of the first round. He would likely be taken around where I ranked him... at #46 overall, which I was heavily criticized for.
9)Adam Beckman #57: I liked his offensive tools and thought he could be a top 6 goal-scoring winger in the NHL, plus I was intrigued by a late growth spurt which shot him up four inches to 6'1. I was confident ranking him higher than the consensus, and in a re-draft he could go in the late first round.
10)Patrick Moynihan #93: Many saw him as a borderline 4th liner at the NHL level, I compared him to Ryan Callahan and said he could score at the NHL level and star in a mid-6 role. Now he's the third-highest goal scorer among NCAA freshmen, and looks like a future scoring mid-6 NHL RW.

I'd love to hear your opinions on my 2019 rankings on this thread. I'm pretty proud of the way things look so far, but maybe you think there are other things I nailed or failed on.
You don't consider your Hughes' remarks a "fail"? You labeled him generational quite a few times, which I disagreed with at the time. You also said he had higher upside than Patty Kane. We debated these things a few times if you recall. Also:

"
Here's what you're getting in Jack Hughes. On the scouting scale of 20-80, the last skater to score an 80 was Connor McDavid. Hughes is also an 80. Not only does he have straightaway speed to match anyone in the NHL, but his edge work is possibly better. What does that mean? It means that, if you are a defenseman, back the #$@! up. If you lunge at Hughes an miss, you will be posterized. He has almost superhuman agility and can skate sideways faster than you can skate forwards. Combined with Hughes' vision/stickhandling/passing skills, which are all on par with Patrick Kane, this makes him a one-man zone entry machine. If Hughes has a full head of steam (which takes a nanosecond, his acceleration is also as good as we have ever seen), two defensemen can be waiting for him at the blue-line, but he still does not need to dump in. Hughes has a rare ability to know where his teammates are, gain the blueline, turn on a dime, curl to give himself a moment's time and space, fake a move to freeze the defender, then feather a pass on the blade of a linemate no one saw him look at cutting into the zone across the ice.

Hughes is quite simply, the rare player who will change the entire way the entire other team plays the moment he steps on the ice. Though his hands are a tick below Patrick Kane (who has, in my mind, the best hands in the world), his game is similar. But while Kane is a very good skater, Hughes can skate like McDavid. No one in the history of the NHL has combined skating on McDavid's level with hands on Kane's level. That is... until Jack Hughes enters the NHL.

Jack Hughes is not imperfect. The one area where Kappo Kakko is superior to Hughes is that Kakko has no weakness in his game. Hughes is slightly below average defensively and in physicality -- so he's going to need to be paired with a player on his line who can pick up his initial slack in these areas, likely by moving Zacha onto his LW or playing Coleman on his line. But what he will do for the goal-scoring of that player is unfathomable -- Hughes is the best pure set-up man to enter the NHL since Connor McDavid.

Hughes' shot is another underrated weapon. While it is not extremely hard, it is extremely accurate and he gets it off with extreme quickness. In close, it is absolutely deadly. From further out, Hughes' greatest weapon in goalscoring is that he can change direction and angle so quickly with his otherworldly edge work that goaltenders do not have the time to change their angle, and then become victims of Hughes' outstanding accuracy. While Hughes will never lead the NHL in goals, it is a healthy assumption that he can become a perennial 30-75-105 player who can (like Patrick Kane did) become a 40+ goal scorer with greater strength and conditioning.

Hughes' size will be brought up repeatedly, like it was with those (read: the fools) who did the same with Patrick Kane. I can dig up articles of draft pundits who thought that, due to Kane's size, Van Riemsdyk or Turris should have been the #1 pick in 2007. Those pundits do not look so good now. Like Kane, Hughes seemingly has eyes in the back of his head and is nearly impossible to get a clean hit on. Like Kane, Hughes will never compete for a Selke Trophy but should develop, due to his off-the-charts hockey IQ, into a decent defensive player. Like Kane, Hughes will never be a physical player. But it is important to note that Kane is really Hughes' best comparable, and due to Hughes' far superior skating and position of center, Hughes has even higher upside than Chicago's perennial MVP candidate.

Make no mistake, the Devils have both literally and metaphorically won the lottery. It is also crucial to note that Taylor Hall has become friends with Jack Hughes over the past year-plus. The addition of Hughes all at once significantly improves the Devils chances of making the playoffs next year, winning a Stanley Cup in the future, and convincing Taylor Hall to re-sign with New Jersey long term. It is not unreasonable to expect Hughes to put up a 20-45-65 stat line next season. He will immediately replace Brendan Shanahan as the most offensively talented forward the New Jersey Devils have ever drafted. This is cause for great celebration among the Devils and their fans."
 
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StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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You don't consider your Hughes' remarks a "fail"? You labeled him generational quite a few times, which I disagreed with at the time. You also said he had higher upside than Patty Kane. We debated these things a few times if you recall. Also:

"
Here's what you're getting in Jack Hughes. On the scouting scale of 20-80, the last skater to score an 80 was Connor McDavid. Hughes is also an 80. Not only does he have straightaway speed to match anyone in the NHL, but his edge work is possibly better. What does that mean? It means that, if you are a defenseman, back the #$@! up. If you lunge at Hughes an miss, you will be posterized. He has almost superhuman agility and can skate sideways faster than you can skate forwards. Combined with Hughes' vision/stickhandling/passing skills, which are all on par with Patrick Kane, this makes him a one-man zone entry machine. If Hughes has a full head of steam (which takes a nanosecond, his acceleration is also as good as we have ever seen), two defensemen can be waiting for him at the blue-line, but he still does not need to dump in. Hughes has a rare ability to know where his teammates are, gain the blueline, turn on a dime, curl to give himself a moment's time and space, fake a move to freeze the defender, then feather a pass on the blade of a linemate no one saw him look at cutting into the zone across the ice.

Hughes is quite simply, the rare player who will change the entire way the entire other team plays the moment he steps on the ice. Though his hands are a tick below Patrick Kane (who has, in my mind, the best hands in the world), his game is similar. But while Kane is a very good skater, Hughes can skate like McDavid. No one in the history of the NHL has combined skating on McDavid's level with hands on Kane's level. That is... until Jack Hughes enters the NHL.

Jack Hughes is not imperfect. The one area where Kappo Kakko is superior to Hughes is that Kakko has no weakness in his game. Hughes is slightly below average defensively and in physicality -- so he's going to need to be paired with a player on his line who can pick up his initial slack in these areas, likely by moving Zacha onto his LW or playing Coleman on his line. But what he will do for the goal-scoring of that player is unfathomable -- Hughes is the best pure set-up man to enter the NHL since Connor McDavid.

Hughes' shot is another underrated weapon. While it is not extremely hard, it is extremely accurate and he gets it off with extreme quickness. In close, it is absolutely deadly. From further out, Hughes' greatest weapon in goalscoring is that he can change direction and angle so quickly with his otherworldly edge work that goaltenders do not have the time to change their angle, and then become victims of Hughes' outstanding accuracy. While Hughes will never lead the NHL in goals, it is a healthy assumption that he can become a perennial 30-75-105 player who can (like Patrick Kane did) become a 40+ goal scorer with greater strength and conditioning.

Hughes' size will be brought up repeatedly, like it was with those (read: the fools) who did the same with Patrick Kane. I can dig up articles of draft pundits who thought that, due to Kane's size, Van Riemsdyk or Turris should have been the #1 pick in 2007. Those pundits do not look so good now. Like Kane, Hughes seemingly has eyes in the back of his head and is nearly impossible to get a clean hit on. Like Kane, Hughes will never compete for a Selke Trophy but should develop, due to his off-the-charts hockey IQ, into a decent defensive player. Like Kane, Hughes will never be a physical player. But it is important to note that Kane is really Hughes' best comparable, and due to Hughes' far superior skating and position of center, Hughes has even higher upside than Chicago's perennial MVP candidate.

Make no mistake, the Devils have both literally and metaphorically won the lottery. It is also crucial to note that Taylor Hall has become friends with Jack Hughes over the past year-plus. The addition of Hughes all at once significantly improves the Devils chances of making the playoffs next year, winning a Stanley Cup in the future, and convincing Taylor Hall to re-sign with New Jersey long term. It is not unreasonable to expect Hughes to put up a 20-45-65 stat line next season. He will immediately replace Brendan Shanahan as the most offensively talented forward the New Jersey Devils have ever drafted. This is cause for great celebration among the Devils and their fans."

Nope, I don't consider it a fail. Not even remotely. Different prospects develop at different rates for different reasons. People criticizing him for his lack of offensive production as the youngest player in the entire NHL need to take some deep breaths. This season the MVP will likely go to Leon Draisaitl. In his draft + 1 season, Draisaitl had 2 goals in 37 games.

Did I make any mistakes regarding Hughes? Absolutely -- I overestimated his NHL-readiness. I also overestimated the Devils coaching, who saddled him for much of the season with sub-par line mates, giving him less ice-time in many contests than AHL-caliber players like Hayden and Rooney; I would have paired him from the get-go on a second line with Zacha and Gusev or Palmieri. Regardless, judging the first overall pick in 2020 as a failure in any sense of the word is patently absurd. In a 2020 re-draft, Hughes would be a slam dunk as the top overall pick again. The only question would be to take Kakko or Byram at #2 -- a question which I recall asking more than once on these threads.

To calm down the Hughes-anxious, here's a terrific and comprehensive column from The Athletic which came out today:

The Video Room: Why Jack Hughes isn't a star -- yet
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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Brooklyn, NY
As a side note, I don't mind criticism of things I have gotten wrong. I don't feel any ill will towards those that criticize me. Making bold predictions, by definition, opens one up to future criticism, so I welcome it.

You don't lose credibility by not always being correct. You lose credibility when you continue to defend your own mistakes with arguments based on slanted evidence and rationalizations and excuses.

If anyone wants to make fun of me for ranking Krebs over Cozens and Boldy over Caufield? Have at it! I'll join in! But if anyone wants to get on me over saying essentially the same things about Jack Hughes as every draft-writer in the entire business when the kid is just 50-something games into his NHL career and has not dominated yet? I mean, there's nothing I can do but try not to roll my eyes and try to use facts in defense -- not in my own defense, but in the defense of the actual hockey player being unfairly criticized.
 

Nubmer6

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As a side note, I don't mind criticism of things I have gotten wrong. I don't feel any ill will towards those that criticize me. Making bold predictions, by definition, opens one up to future criticism, so I welcome it.

You don't lose credibility by not always being correct. You lose credibility when you continue to defend your own mistakes with arguments based on slanted evidence and rationalizations and excuses.

If anyone wants to make fun of me for ranking Krebs over Cozens and Boldy over Caufield? Have at it! I'll join in! But if anyone wants to get on me over saying essentially the same things about Jack Hughes as every draft-writer in the entire business when the kid is just 50-something games into his NHL career and has not dominated yet? I mean, there's nothing I can do but try not to roll my eyes and try to use facts in defense -- not in my own defense, but in the defense of the actual hockey player being unfairly criticized.
You seem to take criticism of your spelling a bit hard though :naughty:
 
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Guttersniped

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Is their any news about the U18 Worlds in April? I couldn’t find any updates, I thought it might have been cancelled already. How much do you and others rely on that scouting wise?
 
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StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
10,415
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Brooklyn, NY
@StevenToddIves

Is their any news about the U18 Worlds in April? I couldn’t find any updates, I thought it might have been cancelled already. How much do you and others rely on that scouting wise?

I've been trying to avoid reading the news lately. Scouting wise, any time prospects face off against players in their own peer group, it's a useful analytical tool.
 
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