Prospect Info: Ives Preliminary 2020 Draft Rankings (1-32 for March)

[StevenToddIves]

I’d have a very tough time investing a first or second round pick in a defender with average wheels (which likely means they will be below average in the NHL if he doesn’t work with maximum effort on that) who is a subpar defender. That’s at least one physical trait he may not overcome and his lack of urgency does not give me confidence he will put in the mental effort to learn the skills he can control. Now having said that I haven’t watched any video or seen him in any games. This is just my thought on player selection in general. I’ll gamble on physically limited guys who are highly competitive and have a good attitude and some element of humility that will allow them to accept critical input and work on things. That’s a guy like Butcher who will go as far as his physical limitations allow but at least he will be smart and give his all. If Poirrier is not a try hard I wouldn’t put him in that category. As always thanks for sharing this stuff. Really appreciated during this time of public crisis.

Needless to say, as the NYC bars have closed I have more time to analyze draft prospects.

Again, Poirier is certainly an interesting prospect. I'd rank his upside as a superstar offensive defenseman with 60-point capability. But he's as far from his upside as any defenseman in the entire draft. Poirier has several red flags to eliminate if he is even to make the NHL. Two years ago, we had another big-upside offensive defenseman in Ryan Merkley who is comparable in that they both were horror shows defensively with compete level issues -- but Merkley was also a terrific skater. Merkley went late in the first round to San Jose despite being generally considered a top 10 talent. Poirier also adds skating issues, which renders him unable to recover after making an all-too-common mistake with his gap control or positioning. But I would add that Poirier's hands and shot are even better than Merkley's -- Poirier legitimately has the hands/shot-release combo of not a defenseman but rather an elite NHL forward.

Personally -- and I've said these things countless times on these HF boards -- I'm willing to take these sorts of chances with forwards. Last year, I had Arthur Kaliyev ranked higher than most. With a scoring winger of huge potential, I think a team is wise to gamble on a guy even if there are questions about his 200-foot game. With a defenseman, I'm not so willing. To me, a poor defensive winger with high offensive skill will still generate more goals for his team than he will allow for the opposition. Conversely, I think a defenseman who is a liability defensively is not only an oxymoron, but also a detriment -- the three or four high-danger scoring chances per game they generate will be overwhelmed by the litany of scoring chances their shortcomings allow to the opposition. For this reason, I would not endorse Poirier for a first round pick by a team I root for, even if he fell into the late 20's. I hope he figures it out and develops more of a complete game which will allow his offensive excellence to truly shine, but he's just so far off from that point that it's difficult for me to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper of the Day:

RD Noah Ellis, Des Moines USHL
In the history of the NHL, there have only been four players born and raised in Iowa. One of them, ex-Devil Scott Clemmenson, owns the Des Moines Buccaneers of the USHL. And his best player is an extremely intriguing, if raw, prospect worth a look in the late rounds of the 2020 NHL draft.

There's a lot to like about Noah Ellis. He's a right-shot D combining ideal size (6'1-190) with excellent skating and mobility. He's a strong passer, especially on the outlet, and can boast an extremely hard shot from the point. His compete level is strong and though he's far from a bruiser, he's not afraid of the physical stuff down low. It would be difficult to define him as an "offensive defenseman" or a "defensive defenseman", he's more of an all-situation, two way guy who is good, if unspectacular, in all three zones.

Certainly, Ellis is a raw prospect. I'd like to see him be more aggressive with his break-ins and pinches in the offensive zone, and his positioning and gap control in the defensive zones are still works in progress. He can get caught out of position trying to do too much. But the U-Mass commit will certainly develop for the next four years in the NCAA at a very good college program. Ellis is extremely intriguing in that he's a guy who should be available from the 5th-7th rounds who checks off every box in the physical tool box and seems to have an excellent character to accentuate his high development curve.

I think this is the kind of kid you take chances on in the late rounds of a draft. Until his debut in the USHL this year, Ellis has never played in a highly competitive league or for top coaching. He's the type of kid who can really take off in the NCAA and leave you wondering how you missed on him in his draft year.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper of the Day:

C/LW Evan Vierling, Barrie OHL
Okay, I'm really starting to go stir crazy in my quarantine, so I'm going to hit you folks early with one of my favorite sleepers in the draft. Why? Well, Vierling is a kid who could go as late as the 3rd/4th rounds, but in my mind he's a player with top-6, two way upside in the NHL at either center or wing. This is your fourth round pick which makes you look like a genius just a few years down the road.

Let's start with the good. Vierling is a former #2 overall pick in the OHL, and the only guy who went before him was a future mega-star in Quinton Byfield. He is an excellent skater, with high-end puck skills and vision. He plays with great tenacity as is known as a terrific two-way player; making great reads in the defensive zone and constantly hawking the puck. This combination makes him a bitch to play against, and a dream to play with.

So, why are we not talking about a first-round pick? Well, there are several factors which have dropped him, and to me they're all extemporaneous.

Vierling is a skinny kid -- 6'0-160 -- so he needs to build strength. This is one of the factors which dropped Elias Pettersson in his draft year, so I tend to ignore it. The NHL trainers will get 20 pounds of muscle on him in the coming seasons, and this won't be an issue I think going forward. Another aspect which needs to be stated is that he is a June 2002 birthday, meaning he's almost a full year younger than many kids in his draft class. Simply, he has a higher curve of physical development, and he's already a heck of an athlete.

Vierling began his draft-eligible 2019-20 season with the team which drafted him, the Flint Firebirds. Halfway through the season, he had just 2 goals and 10 points, was frustrated with his deployment as a checking line center, and there were rumors he was not getting along with coaches and wanted out of town. In January, Flint traded Vierling to the Barrie Colts, which began to deploy him in a more offensive role, with greater time on the PP. And boy, did Vierling respond -- in 28 games he put up a stat-line of 12g-22a-34p and seemed to be improving exponentially with each game. Again, as one of the younger players in his draft class, Vierling has a higher development curve. To me, this is a kid who can explode next year for 90 points in the OHL.

So, we're talking about a kid who combines excellent offense with tremendous two-way play and a high compete level; a kid with a huge development curve who could be due for a statistical explosion next year. And he could be available in the 3rd/4th rounds. Nothing not to like here.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LD Joni Jurmo, Jokerit FIN JR.
Sometimes draft prospects are greater than the sum of their parts. And then you have kids like Joni Jurmo -- whose toolbox is is absolutely earth-shattering, but he has so much development to reach his ceiling that you really need to take a leap of faith projection-wise when drafting him. However, if Jurmo puts it all together? This kid has amazing upside.

Let's start with the obvious: Jurmo is 6'3-195 despite being one of the younger players in the 2020 draft class, and he can skate like the wind. He can boast a powerful point blast and he's tape-to-tape with his outlet passing. Offensively, he's not afraid to join the offense on a rush or with a timely pinch. Defensively, kids his age simply are overmatched by him in one-on-one battles and along the boards due to Jurmo's almost unfair size/speed advantages.

But, suffice to say, Jurmo is still very raw. His positioning and defensive reads need a ton of work. Coaching and development can certainly alleviate these concerns and again, he is one of the younger players in his draft class -- so I would not consider any of these factors "red flags". I would also like to see Jurmo play with more of a physical edge; winning physical battles comes easy to him, but if he were a bit nastier he could be an abject intimidator any time he took the ice.

If Jurmo has a discernible weakness, it's that he is not exactly dynamic offensively, and his vision/offensive reads would have to be considered "pretty good but not great". I don't see him as a top PP, huge point producer at the NHL level, though he has the potential to be good in these regards which, when combined with a huge shot, could make him a 15+goal, 40+point guy in the NHL if he gets close to his talent ceiling. I see Jurmo as a second-pairing, 2PP guy at the NHL level who can play in all situations, and I'd say his closest comparable from the 2019 draft would be Philip Broberg, who went (too high, but still) #8 overall.

Jurmo is not going to be a top 10 pick in 2020. But, he still must be considered a big wild card. His size/skating/shot combo is absolutely elite, which could lead a team to picking him as early as the late first round. But his rawness could drop him as far down as the late 3rd round.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LW Daniel Torgersson, Frolunda, SWE JR.
The initial things which strike you about this player is that he's 6'3-200 with very good skating ability and excellent straight-line speed. These qualities alone are enough to get a scout's attention, but his complete game is very impressive, as well. Torgersson's best quality is his shot -- he knows how to get into shooting position, and can absolutely rip the puck off the wing.

Torgersson plays a 200-foot game with a lot of hustle, and is often used on the penalty kill. He plays a physical brand of hockey, but it would be far from accurate to call him a bruiser. He's more of a guy who knows that his strength will win him puck battles and is not afraid to throw a bit of weight around.

It would be a mistake to consider Torgersson the type of possession-driver or high-vision winger who will be a top line winger, despite his tantalizing size/strength/speed/shot combination. He's more projectable as a third line winger who can contribute offensively and play well in all situations -- as well as excelling at even strength and on the PK, he could be a nice crease crasher on your 2PP unit.

I see Torgersson as a very high-floor prospect, especially considering he's likely going to be around until the 3rd/4th round. With his physical gifts and solid, simple game it's difficult to envision him not making an NHL roster down the line, as a 4th liner at the very least. I also think he has some upside as a 2nd line player -- with that shot, if he finds the right chemistry with a good playmaking center, I'd even go so far to say that he has 25+ goal potential at the NHL level.

Prior to the trade deadline, I would have said that the Devils really needed a player like Torgersson. At that point, the only big-bodied LW with NHL potential in the system was Mikhail Maltsev. GM Tom Fitzgerald certainly addressed this with savvy acquisitions of Nolan Foote and Janne Kuokkanen. Foote is likely a future top-6 staple on the LW, while Kuokkanen is a likely mid-6 left winger. But I still like the idea of drafting a player like Torgersson enough to write a capsule on him -- I think you're talking about a very nice bottom-6 forward who combines speed, strength and a wicked shot. Most rankings I've seen have this talented young Swede in the late 3rd to mid-4th round, and his obvious tools could see him go higher. But if he fell to the Devils 4th round pick, Daniel Torgensson would be an excellent selection.

 

[devilsblood]

STI, looking at Vierling, and the Barrie Colts team that he joined midway through the season, but what is the deal with Tyson Forester? Last year 23 points in 64 games. This year 80 in 62, far and away the team leader.

What are the reasons behind that jump?

And why is he ranked where he is? I see only 2 rankings, one is 39th the other 58, are they just slow to pick up on his rise in play?

 

[StevenToddIves]

STI, looking at Vierling, and the Barrie Colts team that he joined midway through the season, but what is the deal with Tyson Forester? Last year 23 points in 64 games. This year 80 in 62, far and away the team leader.

What are the reasons behind that jump?

And why is he ranked where he is? I see only 2 rankings, one is 39th the other 58, are they just slow to pick up on his rise in play?

I should actually thank you -- I've been meaning to mention Foerster, and I'm ecstatic that you did. Foerster is actually in that draft limbo where he's not quite at the level where people consider him a first round pick, but he's far too good to be considered a "sleeper". Most projections have him going in the early second round; there is a possibility he could slip into the late first round, and I don't see any way on earth where Foerster lasts until the third. Why? Well, thanks for giving me the initiative to explain.

Draft capsule:
RW/C Tyson Foerster, Barrie OHL
There may be no forward in the 2020 draft with more prototypical mid-6 NHL projectability than Tyson Foerster. You watch him and you just think with every shift: he's a player. Foerster has two elite skills -- his shot and his brain. His wrist shot is downright nasty, and when he lets it go from the half-wall he could beat a goalie clean, even if that goalie is set and expecting it. The power his 6'0-195 frame can get behind that shot is wicked, and if he improves his accuracy a touch he will be able to top 30+ goals as a pro. As for the way Foerster thinks the game, it's just tremendous and fun to watch. He just sees the ice, anticipates the play, knows the game. This gives him the versatility to excel either up the middle or at wing, to excel in all three zones, and to play with a tremendous amount of poise, with or without the puck.

The other aspects of Foerster's game would check off as "good-but-not-great". He's a skater with nice straightaway speed, but he's no speed demon. His puck-handling abilities are solid, but they are made more impressive by his savvy ability to shield the puck with his body. He's not the most creative or unpredictable player, but his north-south game is excellent and translates well at the NHL level -- there's nothing wrong with a winger whose primary goal is always to take the puck to the net, and Foerster is terrific in this regard. His two-way play is admirable, his compete level is unquestionable, and though he does not initiate a great deal of physicality, he is a very strong kid who will never shy away.

Again, there's nothing not to like about Tyson Foerster. No weaknesses, great kid. He has a very high floor as a bottom six forward, but his two elite tools of shooting and hockey sense give him the chance to be a scoring 2nd line F at the NHL level, either at C or RW (though I would say he projects better to the wing).

From a Devils standpoint, he would be a nice fit, but Foerster is an unlikely target unless they make a pre-draft trade for a 2nd round pick. As much as I love this kid, he might be considered a bit of a reach at #17 overall (if the Devils keep that pick). And there's simply no way that he lasts through the 2nd round --much less the 3rd -- where the Devils lack picks in 2020. But if the Devils manage a deal where they acquire a 2nd rounder, Foerster would be a tremendous selection if you could get him anywhere in that round.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper Prospect of the Day:

LW Yevgeni Oksentyuk, Flint OHL

Every once in awhile you find yourself doing something you never thought you would have done. For me, one of these things is write about how great it would be to draft a 5'7-155 Belarussian over-age winger. Yevgeni Oksentyuk is the complete anomaly who defies every single thing you expect, every single shift you watch him play.

The story of how I first noticed him is also interesting. I first saw Oksentyuk play very early in the season, in game vs. Saginaw I was watching specifically to take notes on Saginaw star and consensus 2020 top 10 pick Cole Perfetti. For those of you who might think my hockey knowledge is more encyclopedic than it actually is -- at that point I'd never even heard of Oksentyuk. In his draft eligible season of 2018-19, the kid was playing in the Belarussian league, not something I (or very many other draft writers) typically pay a great deal of attention to. Of course, for much of the game, I was mesmerized by Perfetti's sublime skill. Yet, every time that Flint top line came over the boards, I couldn't help but spend the entire shift with my eyes glued to their tiny LW Yevgeni Oksentyuk. He was flashing all of the skills that you'd expect from an undersized forward -- excellent skating speed with tremendous agility, flashy puck skills, slippery/sneaky elusiveness, creativity and vision with the puck. This was impressive of course, as I was previously unfamiliar with the player, but it was not necessarily a shock to the system, so to speak.

What kept my attention almost magnetically glued to this kid was the style with which he played. I'm not sure the best way to describe it, but it's almost as if no one has told him he's 5'7-155 -- he plays an absolute power forward game down low. This kid was hitting everything in sight, playing with almost supernatural ferocity in puck battles down low, initiating contact with much bigger opponents left and right. It's almost as if someone trapped Jerome Iginla's brain in Tyler Johnson's body. He's got one of the most relentless motors I have seen in years, and I would have a tough time naming any player that small who I've ever seen play with such abject fearlessness.

After Evan Vierling was traded from Flint, there was no one on the Firebirds team I had tremendous scouting interest in, so the next few times I watched the team play it was also to take notes on better-known, opposing draft eligibles like Foudy, Pitlik, O'Rourke and Perreault. But each time, I could not look away from Oksentyuk -- he's flat out one of the bravest, most likable players I've ever seen and his skill is simply undeniable. I don't think I'm going overboard when I say that this fiery Belarus native has NHL top-6 potential -- he's the kind of player with the requisite skill and creativity to score 60 points at the NHL level in a top 6 role, and the rare undersized offensive dynamo whose contributions will be more than just on the scoresheet. He's hell on wheels -- as good as it gets on the forecheck and in puck retrieval, with an incredible amount of hustle and anticipation on the back check.

We're also talking about a kid who can likely be had somewhere in the 5th-7th rounds. As we know, the Devils have done a tremendous job in the Castron-era uncovering these types of gems in the late rounds, and to me Oksentyuk might be one of the best (if not the best) deep sleeper in the class of 2020.

 

[glenwo2]

I'm going to look through this thread if we draft anyone in the later rounds.

Maybe we get one of Steven's sleeper picks?

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm going to look through this thread if we draft anyone in the later rounds.

Maybe we get one of Steven's sleeper picks?

In 2017 the Devils drafted one of my big sleeper picks in Talvitie.

In 2019 the Devils drafted four of them: Clarke, McCarthy, Gritsyuk and Moynihan.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm going to look through this thread if we draft anyone in the later rounds.

Maybe we get one of Steven's sleeper picks?

Also if anyone wants to accumulate all of my player capsules in one thread, that might be convenient for you guys. And if anyone wants me to write a draft profile of any player, like I said, I've got too much time on my hands. Actually, I think Styx said that, but whatever.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sleeper of the Day:

LW Emil Heineman, Leksaands SWE JR.
It's irrelevant what league a kid is playing in -- if he scores 26 goals in 29 games, he's worth paying attention to -- and that's precisely what this young Swede did this past season. A closer look reveals that Heineman is not just a kid who puts up numbers; he possesses a healthy tool kit and the requisite upside to score goals in a mid-6 role at the NHL level.

Heineman offers ideal NHL size at a projectable 6'0-180, and he is an extremely strong skater with great edges. Despite a stride which can look choppy, he achieves excellent top speeds and his skating must be considered a plus tool. As with almost every prospect I like, Heineman plays pretty fast with a constant motor and very admirable compete level. He is not a shut-down forward, but he plays a solid 200-foot game and is accomplished at winning battles along the boards. I'd say his passing, puck handling and vision grade out as slightly above average, nothing that would raise eyebrows, but certainly not no detriment. But where Heineman truly shines is as a goal-scorer, and it's for that reason why he could be a steal in the middle rounds.

Simply put, Heineman's shot is special. He can blister the puck, and when that is combined with a lightning-quick release and very good accuracy, you get a player who will have the potential to score at any level. Like with most of my sleepers, I'm not certain why Heineman is not discussed more. There's really nothing not to like about his game, and the combination of his size, skating and (especially) shooting makes him a potential middle-6 weapon at the NHL level. From where I've seen him ranked, this is a young player who should be available in the 4th/5th rounds, though there is the possibility that a few NHL scouts see what I do regarding his terrific upside and he goes as early as the 3rd.