Prospect Info: Ives Devils Day One Draft Review

[StevenToddIves]

I agree with the premise about the Holtz pick and I actually espoused the notion that I wouldn't take him because I could get a "lite" version with similar potential at 18 or 20 when I went on my Quinn V Holtz soliloquy in the last mock draft thread. Because of that ability, I wanted someone with a more unique skillset. But Rossi was the only higher ranked player on my board, and I'm not going to get to grumpy about that. I get it.

That being said, I feel so good about him as a player that I just can't even dislike the pick even a little. If it impacted the 20th overall pick, then that is on them and they need to not do that. There's no reason to pass on a guy like Foerster or Perrreault or whomever just because they do have a similar skillset in some regards. I think he's a lock for 30/60.

I'm glad you're higher on Mercer than me, it just makes me feel good. This is exactly where I had him pegged in my rankings (#18), so obviously, I think the value is good. I had guys left who were higher, but it's a minor quibble. Its weird, because I thought I was down on him, but I think I was higher on him than goose and only slightly lower on him than you. I think the type of player he is should be an excellent fit for what we could use.

Here are the things I can say about Muk to put look on the bright side. We didn't draft Askarov at #7. It's pick #20, he doesn't have to be super duper awesome for the pick to be a success. I had Grans in my first round so I can't be completely apoplectic by the selection of Muk. He's off to a dynamite start in the KHL.

I can talk about Dawson Mercer all day. When you get a power forward who plays with high intelligence and compete level, that's usually enough to sell me. But Mercer has elite hands, and he is a legit dual threat -- he's a terrific scorer and outstanding passer. He really has everything you could ask for except high-end skating. He makes up for this in some degree by being a superlative thinker with incredible anticipation and processing of the game. Really smart kid, matches the brains with hustle, heart and compete. If he can pull a Jamie Benn and jack his skating up a notch or two, you're talking about a kid with just incredible potential.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I agree with the premise about the Holtz pick and I actually espoused the notion that I wouldn't take him because I could get a "lite" version with similar potential at 18 or 20 when I went on my Quinn V Holtz soliloquy in the last mock draft thread. Because of that ability, I wanted someone with a more unique skillset. But Rossi was the only higher ranked player on my board, and I'm not going to get to grumpy about that. I get it.

That being said, I feel so good about him as a player that I just can't even dislike the pick even a little. If it impacted the 20th overall pick, then that is on them and they need to not do that. There's no reason to pass on a guy like Foerster or Perrreault or whomever just because they do have a similar skillset in some regards. I think he's a lock for 30/60.

I'm glad you're higher on Mercer than me, it just makes me feel good. This is exactly where I had him pegged in my rankings (#18), so obviously, I think the value is good. I had guys left who were higher, but it's a minor quibble. Its weird, because I thought I was down on him, but I think I was higher on him than goose and only slightly lower on him than you. I think the type of player he is should be an excellent fit for what we could use.

Here are the things I can say about Muk to put look on the bright side. We didn't draft Askarov at #7. It's pick #20, he doesn't have to be super duper awesome for the pick to be a success. I had Grans in my first round so I can't be completely apoplectic by the selection of Muk. He's off to a dynamite start in the KHL.

I will say that Mukhamadullin has considerably more upside than Grans.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

I REALLY liked this draft for us!! I must be one of the few who loved each pick we made, and I know I have a few posts saying I'd be disappointed with Holtz but it was mainly me projecting the lack of Sanderson or Drysdale I was disappointed with.

Holtz is a more of a ranged scorer than Quinn, who is argued to be the best in the draft at scoring. Holtz can let it rip from the freaking blueline and go top cookies! I also like what ive read about his compete and effort he always gives. Wasn't my favorite picks at this spot but, given who we got after him, Im 100% fine with going for a 40+ goal potential player (who apparently has a good all-around game and frame) considering we don't have anyone near that and haven't since Kovalchuk (Hall was never a goal scorer even if he scored a lot his MVP year). I think I let my hype of Sanderson and Drysdale affect my liking of Holtz, who is the best fit for us out of the rest available

Mercer was a BEAUT of a pick here at 18! I was so shocked he made it past 15-16 considering where he was ranked only a year ago in the top-10 by many. His floor is so high so I feel, even in his worst development path, he ends up a great bottom-6er for us. I love his attitude in the interviews and you can tell he is a genuine person who knows what it takes to become better, which is expecting a lot from an 18 year old! Plus the kid's hands are absolutely filthy, anyone with good IQ and filthy mits can make big plays - even if skating isn't his strong suit (I could be wrong on this, I thought most had him as an average skater)

Mukhamadullin is an EXCELLENT pick!! Heres some quick facts for the doubters: In 14 games this year he already has 6 points. The KHL records for points by a defenseman at 18 are a random with 8 and Orlov with 7... in 40+ games!! Mukh has that in 14 almost! And that isn't even his strong suit outside his heavy shot, hes a defensive guy! I absolutely love the prospect of having a 6'3" heavy shot dman whos playing with men, in an important role past the bench, in a league where young dmen are held down longer periods than most. His potential is super high IMO and I think this wasn't a reach at all and we had him above Schneider on our board. His contract is up 21-22 and he could maybe challenge for a spot by then given his size.

Thats my 'I dont know shit about shit but lets shoot the shit' diagnosis of the 1st round!


@StevenToddIves
Decided to repost this for our family scoutsman, sorry if this isnt allowed and if so delete it!

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think some people are projecting how they felt onto how the Devils felt and basing their opinions on that. Whether or not you like the picks or not they've had months to build out their list

Agreed, but the draft goes fast and there's a ton of pressure. My point is simply that the Devils quite likely had Mukhamadullin as their top ranked defender at #20 but not top ranked player, and went for positional need. Again, it's not a disaster pick but it's certainly open to speculation.

 

[Emperoreddy]

How do you know he wasn't their highest ranked player? He's clearly not your highest ranked player at that spot, but that doesn't mean he wasn't their highest ranked player. The burden of proof is on the person making the claim, and in this case that is you claiming they didn't take their highest ranked player.

Yeah thats the leap too far for me and its a bunch if people doing it.

I get Holtz or the Russian not being posters BPAs, but we have no way of knowing if they were or were not the BPA on the Devils board.

Fitz is implying they were

 

[StevenToddIves]

Holtz is a nice player, but I would not have passed over Rossi or Perfetti to take him. Fitz mentioned he wanted to take the guy with the highest upside which I don’t feel he did at this spot (that would be Perfetti imo).

Mercer was a no brainer pick. Not sold on his offensive upside but I love the way he plays. Someone was bound to fall to 18 and I’m glad we were the beneficiary.

Mukhamadullin was obviously a controversial pick. BPA was clearly a forward here, and as has been discussed it seems like poor asset management not to trade down. Now that we’ve picked him I will try to be supportive since he has some promising tools and is off to a great start in his KHL season.

The best aspect of the Mercer pick was that the Devils lacked "power forwards" in their system. Now, they have one -- and also a dual scoring threat with elite hands and off-the-charts hockey IQ and compete level. It was a tremendous pick at #18.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Agreed, but the draft goes fast and there's a ton of pressure. My point is simply that the Devils quite likely had Mukhamadullin as their top ranked defender at #20 but not top ranked player, and went for positional need. Again, it's not a disaster pick but it's certainly open to speculation.

Its possible, but its also possible they simply weren't high on the remaining forwards. They wouldn't be the only team as some of these guys kept dropping.

Plus they had a timeout on top of the 5 minutes and they chose not to use it.

 

[Blender]

Yeah thats the leap too far for me and its a bunch if people doing it.

I get Holtz or the Russian not being posters BPAs, but we have no way of knowing if they were or were not the BPA on the Devils board.

Fitz is implying they were

Yes, that is what I have a major problem with. If someone doesn't personally think a player should have been taken at a specific spot because that is their opinion, I have no problem with that and respect their opinion on it. I do however have a problem with anyone making claims about the Devils' internal list or trying to make "consensus best player" claims. That which can be stated without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

 

[Offseason Champs]

I'm more or less pleased with the draft, really. Before getting on the Rossi hype train I was focused on Holtz because if he's the best natural goal scorer in the draft then I want him.

When you look at what Hughes and Caufield did last year and then just slot Alexander Holtz in over him who I feel is just a better version of Caufield I think you can get some pretty insane results. Even if they're close to being on the same level Holtz has size and weight over him as well which is nice considering our skilled guys are relatively small for now.

Mercer I also really like from the write ups. I dunno if he projects to have 1st like upside but even if he's a 2nd/3rd line tweener guy with grit and scoring ability/two way play that sounds like the complete package to me. Getting that at 18 is a steal straight up.

Mukhamadullin is the clear controversial pick but I feel if you're gonna go for a home run type pick doing that on defense is a pretty good idea. The dude is huge, skates well, and has a cannon of a shot. I actually don't really get why he's ranked so low. If he booms he could have insane upside. His description reminds me of something like a Chara type guy who's big, hits, and has a shot you don't really want to block. Of course the chances of him being Chara are very slim but still, I'm okay with having tossed a first round pick on a hope and a prayer. Trading down and grabbing him would have been fine but the end of the 1st round had a lot of weird choices and I feel that Mukhamadullin wasn't really up there near the top of the head scratchers.

Guess we'll find out who is right or wrong in the coming years but I'm pretty pleased. Not over the moon, but pretty happy feeling we didn't blow it like if we took Askarov at 7. That would have kept me up tonight.

Edit// The weird thing is that they must have seen Rossi a lot, so for them to grab Holtz over him means they must see something we aren't. Maybe it was a draft selection for positional need? That's one of the only things I can think of but at the same time Buffalo passed on him too which I think is way more egregious than our Holtz selection, but that's just my opinion (which doesn't mean a whole lot.)

 

[StevenToddIves]

And, in terms of upside for Muk, he definitely has it. This dude could be a Shea Weber-lite player if he can figure it all out.

Hey, I'm optimistic too. Mukhamadullin has the best shot of any defenseman in the draft, and he's also a 6'3 kid who skates very well. He's shown the ability to play physical and also displayed pretty impressive ability with the puck when he's on his game. I just would've preferred to trade down if this was the guy we had targeted, pick up more assets in the process.

 

[StevenToddIves]

How do you know he wasn't their highest ranked player? He's clearly not your highest ranked player at that spot, but that doesn't mean he wasn't their highest ranked player. The burden of proof is on the person making the claim, and in this case that is you claiming they didn't take their highest ranked player.

You could certainly be correct and I could certainly be incorrect.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I disagree with the Holtz assessment more because I believe the Devils were as familiar with Rossi as any team could be. If they had him as BPA at their pick they would have taken him.

I think they saw Holtz as an elite option and that the RWs available at their later picks to be real steps down.

If they felt Holtz was a dime a dozen prospect and Rossi was special, they would have taken Rossi.

And I tend to agree. Of the wingers, Quinn was the only one near Holtz level but we couldn't take them both, Quinn was never making it to 18, and Holtz is the better prospect.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Steve I was wondering if you have a Player Comparable for Muk? TSN says Zadorov but to me the draft notes people have on him he reminds me of Adam Larsson. Depending on how he develops and if he keeps his current points spree up he could be the Adam Larsson we wished we gotten or the Larsson who we had just before we traded him. if either happen id be happy with a Adam Larsson clone for 20th overall

Tough to say. Mukhamadullin's most obvious positive trait is his bomb of a shot -- he can really blast the biscuit. And of course it's impossible not to notice a 6'3 kid who skates that well.

At the outset of last season (2019-20), I had him ranked in my top 15 -- no joke. I saw a draft very thin on kids with top-pairing potential, and Mukhamadullin offers a ton of upside. But, as the year progressed, his sparse playing time in Ufa seemed to mess with his confidence and he seemed to get shakier and shakier as the season wore on. It dropped him precipitously in my rankings.

I don't know if Zadorov is a good comparable, since Mukhamadullin's ultimate upside is as the trigger man on an NHL #1 PP, which is not Zadorov's game at all. Can I say Sheldon Souray, here? Another big, physical defender with a bomb of a shot. I'm not certain we can really pinpoint what kind of player Mukhamadullin is until we see him get regular KHL minutes -- it seemed like last year he played two shifts per game.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

The best aspect of the Mercer pick was that the Devils lacked "power forwards" in their system. Now, they have one -- and also a dual scoring threat with elite hands and off-the-charts hockey IQ and compete level. It was a tremendous pick at #18.

For this reason why he was always going to the selection at pick 18. Even if NJ loved Schneider, you don’t risk Calgary taking Mercer at Pick 19, just to grab a defenseman.

Unfortunately Rangers took their pick and it left the Devils scrambling. When watching the 5 minute count down clock, the graphic did not show the “pick is in” text and it expired to zero. I actually thought live we were going to trade the pick, but obviously Fitzgerald didn’t get an offer that he liked.

The way Fitzgerald also addressed to the media about scouting Amirov and wondering why his staff wasn’t speaking more about Mukh suggests to me there was definitely recent bias and Mukh rose up their draft board due to his good start to the current KHL season.

 

[dls]

My criticism is that the Devils did not take their highest ranked player at #20, but rather their highest ranked defenseman, since they had already taken two forwards. I will stand by that criticism, since it would be very difficult to convince anyone Mukhamadullin was at the top of the board at #20 with some of the forwards who were still out there.

I wholeheartedly agree with ives's logic that the devils simply drafted out of need vs BPA---

The argument is :

Rossi/Perfetti/Holtz + Perraul/Zary

vs

Holtz + Mukk

You simply HAVE TO SEE THAThat option 1 IS >>>>>>>> than option 2 independent of how much of a reach Mukk was.

GM always says "we go BPA BPA BPA"... we've seen this play out in sports time and time again - their job security is a relatively short window.

The miss of the draft was a crop of 2 T1 C's and 5 formidable W's potential of:

C Hughes Hischier
LW Bratt Foote Perfetti
RW Perreault Mercer

To have 6 first-round picks and 1 gem in the unicorn as a core over a period of 4 years

VS drafting for "need" of' Holtz & Mukk

Just based on that I would say grades are

Hotlz - B+ (factoring in a floor of 20+ goals with a ceiling of 30's)
Mercer - A+ (BPA)
Mukk - D-

Overall B- ... Just because you had 3 first-round picks doesn't mean you throw one away

 

[dls]

Mistake

 

[Davegarri]

So I feel a little better about the Shakir pick at #20 after seeing how much he's improved in the KHL since last year. He definitely was a riser. I still think he was taken a little early and I would've liked to trade down a few spots for another 3rd or 4th rounder, but it is what it is. He shows to be progressing in a pro league very well and has the physical tools. It very well could turn out to be a fantastic pick down the road.

I still completely disagree about taking Holtz over Rossi, but I get the decision. This draft just screamed need over BPA other than maybe the Mercer pick, which is a philosophy I completely disagree with.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I REALLY liked this draft for us!! I must be one of the few who loved each pick we made, and I know I have a few posts saying I'd be disappointed with Holtz but it was mainly me projecting the lack of Sanderson or Drysdale I was disappointed with.

Holtz is a more of a ranged scorer than Quinn, who is argued to be the best in the draft at scoring. Holtz can let it rip from the freaking blueline and go top cookies! I also like what ive read about his compete and effort he always gives. Wasn't my favorite picks at this spot but, given who we got after him, Im 100% fine with going for a 40+ goal potential player (who apparently has a good all-around game and frame) considering we don't have anyone near that and haven't since Kovalchuk (Hall was never a goal scorer even if he scored a lot his MVP year). I think I let my hype of Sanderson and Drysdale affect my liking of Holtz, who is the best fit for us out of the rest available

Mercer was a BEAUT of a pick here at 18! I was so shocked he made it past 15-16 considering where he was ranked only a year ago in the top-10 by many. His floor is so high so I feel, even in his worst development path, he ends up a great bottom-6er for us. I love his attitude in the interviews and you can tell he is a genuine person who knows what it takes to become better, which is expecting a lot from an 18 year old! Plus the kid's hands are absolutely filthy, anyone with good IQ and filthy mits can make big plays - even if skating isn't his strong suit (I could be wrong on this, I thought most had him as an average skater)

Mukhamadullin is an EXCELLENT pick!! Heres some quick facts for the doubters: In 14 games this year he already has 6 points. The KHL records for points by a defenseman at 18 are a random with 8 and Orlov with 7... in 40+ games!! Mukh has that in 14 almost! And that isn't even his strong suit outside his heavy shot, hes a defensive guy! I absolutely love the prospect of having a 6'3" heavy shot dman whos playing with men, in an important role past the bench, in a league where young dmen are held down longer periods than most. His potential is super high IMO and I think this wasn't a reach at all and we had him above Schneider on our board. His contract is up 21-22 and he could maybe challenge for a spot by then given his size.

Thats my 'I dont know shit about shit but lets shoot the shit' diagnosis of the 1st round!


@StevenToddIves
Decided to repost this for our family scoutsman, sorry if this isnt allowed and if so delete it!

I love your optimism! Hopefully, it all works out in time. Again, I think a Hughes/Holtz combo will be absolutely lethal for the Devils in the coming years, and I think Mercer is just a tremendous pick at #18. There's still a lot of mystery with Mukhamadullin but, yes, the upside is certainly there.

 

[Blender]

Tough to say. Mukhamadullin's most obvious positive trait is his bomb of a shot -- he can really blast the biscuit. And of course it's impossible not to notice a 6'3 kid who skates that well.

At the outset of last season (2019-20), I had him ranked in my top 15 -- no joke. I saw a draft very thin on kids with top-pairing potential, and Mukhamadullin offers a ton of upside. But, as the year progressed, his sparse playing time in Ufa seemed to mess with his confidence and he seemed to get shakier and shakier as the season wore on. It dropped him precipitously in my rankings.

I don't know if Zadorov is a good comparable, since Mukhamadullin's ultimate upside is as the trigger man on an NHL #1 PP, which is not Zadorov's game at all. Can I say Sheldon Souray, here? Another big, physical defender with a bomb of a shot. I'm not certain we can really pinpoint what kind of player Mukhamadullin is until we see him get regular KHL minutes -- it seemed like last year he played two shifts per game.

Mukhamadullin has averaged about 14 minutes per game through the first 14 games of the KHL season. He's on pace to smash the single season record for points by an u19 defenseman, as he's already 2 points away in 35 fewer games.

I think it's very likely his impressive play this season shot him up their draft rankings more than he was before.

 

[Emperoreddy]

For this reason why he was always going to the selection at pick 18. Even if NJ loved Schneider, you don’t risk Calgary taking Mercer at Pick 19, just to grab a defenseman.

Unfortunately Rangers took their pick and it left the Devils scrambling. When watching the 5 minute count down clock, the graphic did not show the “pick is in” text and it expired to zero. I actually thought live we were going to trade the pick, but obviously Fitzgerald didn’t get an offer that he liked.

The way Fitzgerald also addressed to the media about scouting Amirov and wondering why his staff wasn’t speaking more about Mukh suggests to me there was definitely recent bias and Mukh rose up their draft board due to his good start to the current KHL season.

If they were that set on Schneider they just take him at 18 and take Perreault at 20 instead.

Or get on the phone with Calgary to move up to 19.

They had options if they wanted Schneider that badly. They most likely weren't as attached to him as people are trying to to claim.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Mukhamadullin has averaged about 14 minutes per game through the first 14 games of the KHL season. He's on pace to smash the single season record for points by an u19 defenseman, as he's already 2 points away in 35 fewer games.

I think it's very likely his impressive play this season shot him up their draft rankings more than he was before.

Mukh gon' make that buck!

Russian Shea Weber, come on down!

 

[StevenToddIves]

I wholeheartedly agree with ives's logic that the devils simply drafted out of need vs BPA---

The argument is :

Rossi/Perfetti/Holtz + Perraul/Zary

vs

Holtz + Mukk

You simply HAVE TO SEE THAThat option 1 IS >>>>>>>> than option 2 independent of how much of a reach Mukk was.

GM always says "we go BPA BPA BPA"... we've seen this play out in sports time and time again - their job security is a relatively short window.

The miss of the draft was a crop of 2 T1 C's and 5 formidable W's potential of:

C Hughes Hischier
LW Bratt Foote Perfetti
RW Perreault Mercer

To have 6 first-round picks and 1 gem in the unicorn as a core over a period of 4 years

VS drafting for "need" of' Holtz & Mukk

Just based on that I would say grades are

Hotlz - B+ (factoring in a floor of 20+ goals with a ceiling of 30's)
Mercer - A+ (BPA)
Mukk - D-

Overall B- ... Just because you had 3 first-round picks doesn't mean you throw one away

While I'm going to stick to my narrative that the Devils took it a bit too "pick by pick" instead of strategizing the entire draft, I'll defend the picks to the degree that Holtz will be lethal alongside Hughes -- I'd say you're understating his goal-scoring upside -- and Mukhamadullin (though questionable asset management at #20) at least has a great deal of upside.

 

[Goptor]

I don't buy the Schneider angle and panic drafting. There is too many people involved and too much extra time for planning that this situation wasn't addressed prior to the draft. It would be a ridiculous failure on their part if what was said happened. I would have to expect Shakir was their guy all along.

I do agree with the lack of trades being an issue though. A GM needs to be aware of what the other teams plans are likely to be. Lou and Shero were very good in this respect. Fitz failed here.

an analogy I that can describe the situation is:
"An average GM will pick their favorite guy available and walk away happy in their ignorance. A top GM will pick the guy they truly want and possibly bring in an extra draft pick as well"

Shero got an extra 3rd from the McLeod pick, extra pick from Blackwood, and a bunch of defensive Dmen from a high 2nd last year.
Lou made moves to grab Parise, Zajac, and Josefson.

Fitz would have been able to do this if he was aware how much the Capitals valued Lapierre.

 

[Blackjack]

Mukhamadullin has averaged about 14 minutes per game through the first 14 games of the KHL season. He's on pace to smash the single season record for points by an u19 defenseman, as he's already 2 points away in 35 fewer games.

I think it's very likely his impressive play this season shot him up their draft rankings more than he was before.

I checked his thread on the prospects board and there is a claim there that the points are because Ufa's roster has been decimated by Covid and that moved him up to the top powerplay, which is stacked.

I'm not trying to throw cold water over the optimism here, just posting it because I got excited when I saw his scoring numbers, and that comment did temper it a bit for me. Of course, 6 points in 14 games is still quite a lot, and hopefully this is just an example of a player getting an unexpected opportunity and making the most of it.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Mukhamadullin has averaged about 14 minutes per game through the first 14 games of the KHL season. He's on pace to smash the single season record for points by an u19 defenseman, as he's already 2 points away in 35 fewer games.

I think it's very likely his impressive play this season shot him up their draft rankings more than he was before.

You could be right, and I certainly hope so. I have always been high on Mukhamadullin's considerable upside, and I've said at length that the reason he dropped in my rankings had as much to do with his scarce playing time (and resulting inconsistency) in his draft-eligible campaign as his actual skill set.