Prospect Info: Ives 2023 New Jersey Devils Draft Recap

[TBF1972]

First of all, it's important to say that I don't recommend anyone becoming a Flyers fan under any circumstances whatsoever.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't see ANY problem of drafting Karpovich. Even if we decide to think that Ishimnikov is a better prospect now.

I see different problem. With Cheslok, after whom Colorado drafted Ishimnikov.
Ishimnikiv is better skater, better puck handler, better passer in the moment than Cheslock. He is pro active, smart positionally, can give you an impact on both sides of the rink. And he is big too. AND HE IS RD! He is no brainer better prospect than Cheslock and he will have opportunity to play in more competitive leagues in two three years.
If devils scouted Karpovich, they saw both. And why they drafted Cheslock?!

I'm on the way with my thoughts on the draft, but I have a lot of issues. Like A LOT.


I understand that Fitz want to try to find his role players to not lose first round picks for them on deadlines, but he could find players with really higher potential that could give us depth of scoring/playmaking and faster pace of the game.

And Ishimnikov is just a better player of the same position, faster/better with the puck/playing in more competitive league/better and faster thinking/has more upside/is big and very good skater with/without the puck. And he was drafted by Colorado one pick after Cheslock.

I'm not a fan at all.

Second round pick Lenny? I want and will root for him, but now its a very bad pick on my taste.

And what is going on with our center depth? I have a lot of questions.

Yeah, I couldn't agree more on the NJ need for center depth which was ignored in this draft.

Squires, Brown and Hameenaho are all decent prospects, but none of them have the type of dynamic upside that's impossible to pass up on, and all of them are just "more guys" for the middle of the prospect depth charts at LW and RW. These would be my new NJ center prospect rankings:

C
1 Bardakov
2 Bowers
3 Pitlik
4 Shlaine

I think we can say with confidence that this ranks 32 out of 32 NHL teams. It's just awful. Bardakov can certainly be a solid NHL bottom 6er. Bowers has 4th line upside, Pitlik still has time to establish himself as a 4th line type C, and Shlaine is a very remote long shot.

Now onto my updated rankings for the wings:

LW
1 Gritsyuk
2 Foote
3 Filmon
4 Brown
5 Salminen


RW
1 Holtz
2 Stillman
3 Clarke
4 Thompson
5 Moynihan
6 Hameenaho
7 Hauser
8 Squires

Granted, as the youngest players on the list, Hameenaho, Squires and Brown have lots of time to move up, but I guess time will tell.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

It's interesting the degree to which they de-prioritized skating with these guys. I don't know what it means, just a weird left turn from the big club and draft emphasis.

 

[Triumph]

It's interesting the degree to which they de-prioritized skating with these guys. I don't know what it means, just a weird left turn from the big club and draft emphasis.

I don't think it means anything other than different GMs have different priorities. Shero emphasized speed. Personally I'm for whatever NHL teams are overlooking and it's possible that they are overvaluing speed; they definitely overvalue size.

 

[Guttersniped]

I’m not enthused about drafting a winger for the bottom six because the real value in that sort of player is at center.

If he’s the “winger version of Faksa”, we’ll that’s nice, but the only reason Faksa has the contract and minutes he has is because he’s a defensive center with size and a 55.6% FO% over the last 3 years.

I’ve always said that, no matter what I think of Bastian vs McLeod, McLeod clearly has more value as a true centerman. (And no one would dare question my love of Bastian.)

If a bottom six guy isn’t a center or doesn’t also score a bunch of goals, no one gives a shit about them no matter how good their defense is. Just about every notable bottom six defensive guy is a C or W/C.

We’ve now drafted a bottom six wingers twice with a very early pick and the center position is still a giant empty void in our organization.

Maybe this guy has more offense than I think. If he lacks higher end physical tools, and didn’t track as a guy who drove play, I worry that his production in Liiga was bit illusory and meaningless in terms of projection. I just dislike passing over guys with more high-end middle six impact.

 

[beekay414]

IRT our center depth issue...

How often do prospect for prospect swaps happen in the NHL? I think it's putting it lightly when I say that we have a glut of defensive prospects and limited opportunities for them at the NHL level. Are there teams out there that are strong up the middle in their systems that would swap a C prospect for a D prospect or is that just not a possibility?

 

[ninetyeight]

Btw @StevenToddIves do you have an overall ranking list for this draft? Or perhaps just who do you consider steals of the draft and who as reaches or possibly mistakes?

 

[StevenToddIves]

I’m not enthused about drafting a winger for the bottom six because the real value in that sort of player is at center.

If he’s the “winger version of Faksa”, we’ll that’s nice, but the only reason Faksa has the contract and minutes he has is because he’s a defensive center with size and a 55.6% FO% over the last 3 years.

I’ve always said that, no matter what I think of Bastian vs McLeod, McLeod clearly has more value as a true centerman. (And no one would dare question my love of Bastian.)

If a bottom six guy isn’t a center or doesn’t also score a bunch of goals, no one gives a shit about them no matter how good their defense is. Just about every notable bottom six defensive guy is a C or W/C.

We’ve now drafted a bottom six wingers twice with a very early pick and the center position is still a giant empty void in our organization.

Maybe this guy has more offense than I think. If he lacks higher end physical tools, and didn’t track as a guy who drove play, I worry that his production in Liiga was bit illusory and meaningless in terms of projection. I just dislike passing over guys with more high-end middle six impact.

Hameenaho is a guy whom front office hockey guys could love. This is to say, he just does everything right out there, and he's so quick to anticipate play. He really stands out for his smarts. But no, he's never going to score a lot at the highest level with his physical limitations.

I agree with the complaint about using early picks on bottom 6 wingers and avoiding the center position. I would've been fine with a high-upside wing at #58, but that didn't happen either as we passed on a few of those types, especially Heidt.

IRT our center depth issue...

How often do prospect for prospect swaps happen in the NHL? I think it's putting it lightly when I say that we have a glut of defensive prospects and limited opportunities for them at the NHL level. Are there teams out there that are strong up the middle in their systems that would swap a C prospect for a D prospect or is that just not a possibility?

Almost never, unfortunately. But yes, a Seamus Casey for Marco Kasper trade makes sense for both sides.

 

[OmNomNom]

delete

 

[StevenToddIves]

Btw @StevenToddIves do you have an overall ranking list for this draft? Or perhaps just who do you consider steals of the draft and who as reaches or possibly mistakes?

No, sorry.

Rankings are really hard. They take a ton of time, especially when, like me, you go really deep. What did I do, a top 100 last year?

The other thing to keep in mind is that I put in hundreds of hours -- quite possibly thousands -- over the past years watching prospects and then trying to give you guys detailed write-ups. I'm not sure people realize that the reason I get mad when people in the draft community slag a Jake Sanderson or a Jiri Kulich or an Owen Beck after looking at their stats on eliteprospects.com once is because I probably watched those players in 30-40 games each. It sounds absurd, but it's true.

Anyway, I had to slow down because there was no money in it, and I still hadn't achieved major life goals of publishing a novel or owning a bar and this was literally taking up 1/2 of my time.

That being said, I still love hockey and all things prospects, so I probably watched this years prospects in a few games each, plus the major tournaments so I probably have more insight than most.

I'd say these are the biggest reaches in the 2023 draft from the first two rounds:
12 ARI LW Daniil But
17 DET LD Axel Sandin-Pelikka
28 TOR RW Easton Cowan
29 STL LD Theo Lindstien
39 BUF C Anton Wahlberg
58 NJ RW Lenni Hameenaho
59 ANH C Casey Terrance

People will argue with me on Sandin-Pelikka, I know, but his best NHL comparable is Ty Smith and we all know how that worked out. I just don't think you win with small, good-but-not-great offensive defensemen.

As far as steals? The two biggest where actually -- and strangely -- in the top 15.
Matvei Michkov at #7 overall was an insane steal by Philadelphia. The kid could rewrite the record book for the Flyers. Zach Benson at #13 for Buffalo is a close second. My closest comparable for Benson would be Kiril Kaprizov, and that's no joke. Other steals:

19 CHI C Oliver Moore
20 SEA W Eduard Sale
27 COL C Calum Ritchie
34 CLB F Gavin Brindley
43 NSH C Felix Nilsson
45 BUF RD Maxim Strbak
49 NYI C Danny Nelson
52 SEA C Oscar Fisker-Molgaard
63 FLA C Gracyn Sawcyn
64 MIN C Riley Heidt

And to speed it up, I'll give my biggest steal from every later round:

3rd Round: LW Nick Lardis (CHI) or C Jonathan Castagna (ARI)
4th Round: C Joey Willis (NSH)
5th Round: LD Rodwin Dionicio (ANH)
6th Round: LD Daniil Karpovich (NJ)
7th Round: RW Aiden Fink (NSH)

Im not going to go in depth about them all because time. If anyone asks about a specific player, I'll write back a response, of course.

My big draft winners are Chicago, Columbus and Philadelphia.

Obviously Chicago got Bedard, but Moore skates like a Hughes brother and is also a terrific player. They also made a couple great mid-round picks with Lardis and Kantserov.

Columbus won the day when Fantilli fell in their laps at #3, and won even bigger when his U of Michigan teammate Brindley fell to them in the 2nd round. I had Brindley in my top 20, probably. Pinelli and Peddle were terrific later round values and Whitelaw has huge upside if he can get over his off-ice problems.

Philadelphia got a generational player at #7 overall, which is absurd. Michkov is arguable top 5 of players drafted this century. I was hoping Arizona or San Jose would grab him, but those are two not-smart organizations, especially Arizona. Philly also hit big on mid-round picks of Barkey, Knuble, and Ciernik.

My big draft losers were Montreal and Arizona.

As much as I love Reinbacher, you don't pass on a rare talent like Michkov for this year's version of Brock Faber -- and that's coming from the biggest Brock Faber fan in draft-writing history. It didn't help that the Canadiens then whiffed big-time on every other pick. If it weren't for all the Josh Anderson-to-the-Devils-for-Dawson-Mercer-and-Luke-Hughes trade proposals, I'd almost feel bad for their fans.

As for Arizona? Just erase that franchise from existence. They also passed on Michkov for an outstanding defenseman, so no knock on Simashev, but Michkov is absolutely generational and the Coyotes have never had a star of his talents. Inexcusable for a team desperate for goals, wins and fans alike. Taking Daniil But over Zach Benson at #12 was almost laughable. Make no mistake, Benson is better than But at absolutely every facet of the game at the same LW position, and it's not close. But -- of course -- Benson is 5'9 and But is 6'5, and this in a draft where Arizona drafted big with every single pick. Unfortunately for Arizona, Benson is this year's Kaprizov -- he plays like he's 6'5 -- while But is softest 6'5 you'll ever see. Benson was my #5 overall, and would have likely been my #1 overall if he were eligible in the 2022 draft, the kid is absolutely amazing at hockey. In Arizona's defense, they also made one of my favorite picks in the draft with the ultra-competitive, big/fast/skilled Castagna in the 3rd round.

If you have any follow-up questions, just ask. Great to hear from you again on here, buddy.

 

[My3Sons]

No, sorry.

Rankings are really hard. They take a ton of time, especially when, like me, you go really deep. What did I do, a top 100 last year?

The other thing to keep in mind is that I put in hundreds of hours -- quite possibly thousands -- over the past years watching prospects and then trying to give you guys detailed write-ups. I'm not sure people realize that the reason I get mad when people in the draft community slag a Jake Sanderson or a Jiri Kulich or an Owen Beck after looking at their stats on eliteprospects.com once is because I probably watched those players in 30-40 games each. It sounds absurd, but it's true.

Anyway, I had to slow down because there was no money in it, and I still hadn't achieved major life goals of publishing a novel or owning a bar and this was literally taking up 1/2 of my time.

That being said, I still love hockey and all things prospects, so I probably watched this years prospects in a few games each, plus the major tournaments so I probably have more insight than most.

I'd say these are the biggest reaches in the 2023 draft from the first two rounds:
12 ARI LW Daniil But
17 DET LD Axel Sandin-Pelikka
28 TOR RW Easton Cowan
29 STL LD Theo Lindstien
39 BUF C Anton Wahlberg
58 NJ RW Lenni Hameenaho
59 ANH C Casey Terrance

People will argue with me on Sandin-Pelikka, I know, but his best NHL comparable is Ty Smith and we all know how that worked out. I just don't think you win with small, good-but-not-great offensive defensemen.

As far as steals? The two biggest where actually -- and strangely -- in the top 15.
Matvei Michkov at #7 overall was an insane steal by Philadelphia. The kid could rewrite the record book for the Flyers. Zach Benson at #13 for Buffalo is a close second. My closest comparable for Benson would be Kiril Kaprizov, and that's no joke. Other steals:

19 CHI C Oliver Moore
20 SEA W Eduard Sale
27 COL C Calum Ritchie
34 CLB F Gavin Brindley
43 NSH C Felix Nilsson
45 BUF RD Maxim Strbak
49 NYI C Danny Nelson
52 SEA C Oscar Fisker-Molgaard
63 FLA C Gracyn Sawcyn
64 MIN C Riley Heidt

And to speed it up, I'll give my biggest steal from every later round:

3rd Round: LW Nick Lardis (CHI) or C Jonathan Castagna (ARI)
4th Round: C Joey Willis (NSH)
5th Round: LD Rodwin Dionicio (ANH)
6th Round: LD Daniil Karpovich (NJ)
7th Round: RW Aiden Fink (NSH)

Im not going to go in depth about them all because time. If anyone asks about a specific player, I'll write back a response, of course.

My big draft winners are Chicago, Columbus and Philadelphia.

Obviously Chicago got Bedard, but Moore skates like a Hughes brother and is also a terrific player. They also made a couple great mid-round picks with Lardis and Kantserov.

Columbus won the day when Fantilli fell in their laps at #3, and won even bigger when his U of Michigan teammate Brindley fell to them in the 2nd round. I had Brindley in my top 20, probably. Pinelli and Peddle were terrific later round values and Whitelaw has huge upside if he can get over his off-ice problems.

Philadelphia got a generational player at #7 overall, which is absurd. Michkov is arguable top 5 of players drafted this century. I was hoping Arizona or San Jose would grab him, but those are two not-smart organizations, especially Arizona. Philly also hit big on mid-round picks of Barkey, Knuble, and Ciernik.

My big draft losers were Montreal and Arizona.

As much as I love Reinbacher, you don't pass on a rare talent like Michkov for this year's version of Brock Faber -- and that's coming from the biggest Brock Faber fan in draft-writing history. It didn't help that the Canadiens then whiffed big-time on every other pick. If it weren't for all the Josh Anderson-to-the-Devils-for-Dawson-Mercer-and-Luke-Hughes trade proposals, I'd almost feel bad for their fans.

As for Arizona? Just erase that franchise from existence. They also passed on Michkov for an outstanding defenseman, so no knock on Simashev, but Michkov is absolutely generational and the Coyotes have never had a star of his talents. Inexcusable for a team desperate for goals, wins and fans alike. Taking Daniil But over Zach Benson at #12 was almost laughable. Make no mistake, Benson is better than But at absolutely every facet of the game at the same LW position, and it's not close. But -- of course -- Benson is 5'9 and But is 6'5, and this in a draft where Arizona drafted big with every single pick. Unfortunately for Arizona, Benson is this year's Kaprizov -- he plays like he's 6'5 -- while But is softest 6'5 you'll ever see. Benson was my #5 overall, and would have likely been my #1 overall if he were eligible in the 2022 draft, the kid is absolutely amazing at hockey. In Arizona's defense, they also made one of my favorite picks in the draft with the ultra-competitive, big/fast/skilled Castagna in the 3rd round.

If you have any follow-up questions, just ask. Great to hear from you again on here, buddy.

If you need a test reader for the novel, let me know. I'd be happy to help.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If you need a test reader for the novel, let me know. I'd be happy to help.

Novels. Three in the can and a fourth in the works.

Plus 15 screenplays, a stage play (which did surprisingly well off-Broadway back in '05-'06), a ton of sports writing on multiple websites, a bazillion works of short fiction/poetry, and issues 6-10 of Wonder Woman for DC comics back in 2006. I'm pretty prolific. I'm basically a more sociable Emily Dickinson.

 

[My3Sons]

Novels. Three in the can and a fourth in the works.

Plus 15 screenplays, a stage play (which did surprisingly well off-Broadway back in '05-'06), a ton of sports writing on multiple websites, a bazillion works of short fiction/poetry, and issues 6-10 of Wonder Woman for DC comics back in 2006. I'm pretty prolific. I'm basically a more sociable Emily Dickinson.

That’s a great catalogue. I’m jealous. Seriously. I’ve written thousands and thousands of pages over the past thirty years and none of them were anything I enjoyed.

 

[Guadana]

That’s a great catalogue. I’m jealous. Seriously. I’ve written thousands and thousands of pages over the past thirty years and none of them were anything I enjoyed.

Hope your clients did at least.

Novels. Three in the can and a fourth in the works.

Plus 15 screenplays, a stage play (which did surprisingly well off-Broadway back in '05-'06), a ton of sports writing on multiple websites, a bazillion works of short fiction/poetry, and issues 6-10 of Wonder Woman for DC comics back in 2006. I'm pretty prolific. I'm basically a more sociable Emily Dickinson.

what's the name of your imaginary dog?

 

[My3Sons]

Hope your clients did at least.

Some yes some no some indifferent. All necessary though. Sigh.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Hope your clients did at least.


what's the name of your imaginary dog?

I've substituted an imaginary dog with two actual cats. They're (pretentiously) named Simone de Beauvoir and Zora Neale Hurston.

 

[nugg]

Yeah, I couldn't agree more on the NJ need for center depth which was ignored in this draft.

[...]

C
1 Bardakov
2 Bowers
3 Pitlik
4 Shlaine

I think we can say with confidence that this ranks 32 out of 32 NHL teams. It's just awful. Bardakov can certainly be a solid NHL bottom 6er. Bowers has 4th line upside, Pitlik still has time to establish himself as a 4th line type C, and Shlaine is a very remote long shot.

[...]

That is horrendous! If they had picked what I would consider BPA, I'd understand it more, but their picks don't scream that, whatsoever, certainly not in upside! Injuries can always wipe out your center depth, and there isn't ANY here.

After reading Guadana's post right before, it makes me wonder if the draft was looked at this year as an afterthought. Like the bare minimum effort was given. I hope I'm wrong, but yeah, not impressed this year. He's doing a great job in the other areas as GM though, and last year's draft was quite good. I feel a little guilty complaining.

 

[Lou Bloom]

That is horrendous! If they had picked what I would consider BPA, I'd understand it more, but their picks don't scream that, whatsoever, certainly not in upside! Injuries can always wipe out your center depth, and there isn't ANY here.

After reading Guadana's post right before, it makes me wonder if the draft was looked at this year as an afterthought. Like the bare minimum effort was given. I hope I'm wrong, but yeah, not impressed this year. He's doing a great job in the other areas as GM though, and last year's draft was quite good. I feel a little guilty complaining.

What you consider BPA and what the Devils or any other team or scouting outlet considers BPA is going to be wildly different. There were players I liked more at their draft picks but that doesn't mean I can't see the reason they liked the players they drafted and understand the logic behind the pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That is horrendous! If they had picked what I would consider BPA, I'd understand it more, but their picks don't scream that, whatsoever, certainly not in upside! Injuries can always wipe out your center depth, and there isn't ANY here.

After reading Guadana's post right before, it makes me wonder if the draft was looked at this year as an afterthought. Like the bare minimum effort was given. I hope I'm wrong, but yeah, not impressed this year. He's doing a great job in the other areas as GM though, and last year's draft was quite good. I feel a little guilty complaining.

It's tough to draft when you only have one pick in the top 120 picks, so it's tough to evaluate the Devils 2023 draft.

My disappointment is that the one pick in the top 60 was used on a low-upside/decent-floor player in Hameenaho. It sure sounds like the scouting staff loved Hameenaho, but that's concerning too because if you have a 1st-round-type ranking for a forward with decidedly below-average skating, the priorities of the scouting staff for forwards sorely need to be reevaluated.

The Devils have turned the corner in the rebuild, and might even find themselves the Eastern Conference favorites among many pundits going into next season. But this does not mean the draft is no longer crucial.

Again, this draft was not *bad* by any means for what it was. The Devils went high-upside with two defensemen in Karpovich and Cheslock, and none of the forwards were *wasted* picks like the Devils made in years past with names like Baumgartner, Shlaine and Salminen.

 

[My3Sons]

It's tough to draft when you only have one pick in the top 120 picks, so it's tough to evaluate the Devils 2023 draft.

My disappointment is that the one pick in the top 60 was used on a low-upside/decent-floor player in Hameenaho. It sure sounds like the scouting staff loved Hameenaho, but that's concerning too because if you have a 1st-round-type ranking for a forward with decidedly below-average skating, the priorities of the scouting staff for forwards sorely need to be reevaluated.

The Devils have turned the corner in the rebuild, and might even find themselves the Eastern Conference favorites among many pundits going into next season. But this does not mean the draft is no longer crucial.

Again, this draft was not *bad* by any means for what it was. The Devils went high-upside with two defensemen in Karpovich and Cheslock, and none of the forwards were *wasted* picks like the Devils made in years past with names like Baumgartner, Shlaine and Salminen.

The picks may not look obviously bad right now but the poor skating is major cause for concern heading into D+1 if it isn’t an area of intense work.

 

[Guttersniped]

No, sorry.

Rankings are really hard. They take a ton of time, especially when, like me, you go really deep. What did I do, a top 100 last year?

The other thing to keep in mind is that I put in hundreds of hours -- quite possibly thousands -- over the past years watching prospects and then trying to give you guys detailed write-ups. I'm not sure people realize that the reason I get mad when people in the draft community slag a Jake Sanderson or a Jiri Kulich or an Owen Beck after looking at their stats on eliteprospects.com once is because I probably watched those players in 30-40 games each. It sounds absurd, but it's true.

Anyway, I had to slow down because there was no money in it, and I still hadn't achieved major life goals of publishing a novel or owning a bar and this was literally taking up 1/2 of my time.

That being said, I still love hockey and all things prospects, so I probably watched this years prospects in a few games each, plus the major tournaments so I probably have more insight than most.

I'd say these are the biggest reaches in the 2023 draft from the first two rounds:
12 ARI LW Daniil But
17 DET LD Axel Sandin-Pelikka
28 TOR RW Easton Cowan
29 STL LD Theo Lindstien
39 BUF C Anton Wahlberg
58 NJ RW Lenni Hameenaho
59 ANH C Casey Terrance

People will argue with me on Sandin-Pelikka, I know, but his best NHL comparable is Ty Smith and we all know how that worked out. I just don't think you win with small, good-but-not-great offensive defensemen.

As far as steals? The two biggest where actually -- and strangely -- in the top 15.
Matvei Michkov at #7 overall was an insane steal by Philadelphia. The kid could rewrite the record book for the Flyers. Zach Benson at #13 for Buffalo is a close second. My closest comparable for Benson would be Kiril Kaprizov, and that's no joke. Other steals:

19 CHI C Oliver Moore
20 SEA W Eduard Sale
27 COL C Calum Ritchie
34 CLB F Gavin Brindley
43 NSH C Felix Nilsson
45 BUF RD Maxim Strbak
49 NYI C Danny Nelson
52 SEA C Oscar Fisker-Molgaard
63 FLA C Gracyn Sawcyn
64 MIN C Riley Heidt

And to speed it up, I'll give my biggest steal from every later round:

3rd Round: LW Nick Lardis (CHI) or C Jonathan Castagna (ARI)
4th Round: C Joey Willis (NSH)
5th Round: LD Rodwin Dionicio (ANH)
6th Round: LD Daniil Karpovich (NJ)
7th Round: RW Aiden Fink (NSH)

Im not going to go in depth about them all because time. If anyone asks about a specific player, I'll write back a response, of course.

My big draft winners are Chicago, Columbus and Philadelphia.

Obviously Chicago got Bedard, but Moore skates like a Hughes brother and is also a terrific player. They also made a couple great mid-round picks with Lardis and Kantserov.

Columbus won the day when Fantilli fell in their laps at #3, and won even bigger when his U of Michigan teammate Brindley fell to them in the 2nd round. I had Brindley in my top 20, probably. Pinelli and Peddle were terrific later round values and Whitelaw has huge upside if he can get over his off-ice problems.

Philadelphia got a generational player at #7 overall, which is absurd. Michkov is arguable top 5 of players drafted this century. I was hoping Arizona or San Jose would grab him, but those are two not-smart organizations, especially Arizona. Philly also hit big on mid-round picks of Barkey, Knuble, and Ciernik.

My big draft losers were Montreal and Arizona.

As much as I love Reinbacher, you don't pass on a rare talent like Michkov for this year's version of Brock Faber -- and that's coming from the biggest Brock Faber fan in draft-writing history. It didn't help that the Canadiens then whiffed big-time on every other pick. If it weren't for all the Josh Anderson-to-the-Devils-for-Dawson-Mercer-and-Luke-Hughes trade proposals, I'd almost feel bad for their fans.

As for Arizona? Just erase that franchise from existence. They also passed on Michkov for an outstanding defenseman, so no knock on Simashev, but Michkov is absolutely generational and the Coyotes have never had a star of his talents. Inexcusable for a team desperate for goals, wins and fans alike. Taking Daniil But over Zach Benson at #12 was almost laughable. Make no mistake, Benson is better than But at absolutely every facet of the game at the same LW position, and it's not close. But -- of course -- Benson is 5'9 and But is 6'5, and this in a draft where Arizona drafted big with every single pick. Unfortunately for Arizona, Benson is this year's Kaprizov -- he plays like he's 6'5 -- while But is softest 6'5 you'll ever see. Benson was my #5 overall, and would have likely been my #1 overall if he were eligible in the 2022 draft, the kid is absolutely amazing at hockey. In Arizona's defense, they also made one of my favorite picks in the draft with the ultra-competitive, big/fast/skilled Castagna in the 3rd round.

If you have any follow-up questions, just ask. Great to hear from you again on here, buddy.

“3rd Round: LW Nick Lardis (CHI)”
*sob*

 

[Guttersniped]

No, sorry.

Rankings are really hard. They take a ton of time, especially when, like me, you go really deep. What did I do, a top 100 last year?

The other thing to keep in mind is that I put in hundreds of hours -- quite possibly thousands -- over the past years watching prospects and then trying to give you guys detailed write-ups. I'm not sure people realize that the reason I get mad when people in the draft community slag a Jake Sanderson or a Jiri Kulich or an Owen Beck after looking at their stats on eliteprospects.com once is because I probably watched those players in 30-40 games each. It sounds absurd, but it's true.

Anyway, I had to slow down because there was no money in it, and I still hadn't achieved major life goals of publishing a novel or owning a bar and this was literally taking up 1/2 of my time.

That being said, I still love hockey and all things prospects, so I probably watched this years prospects in a few games each, plus the major tournaments so I probably have more insight than most.

I'd say these are the biggest reaches in the 2023 draft from the first two rounds:
12 ARI LW Daniil But
17 DET LD Axel Sandin-Pelikka
28 TOR RW Easton Cowan
29 STL LD Theo Lindstien
39 BUF C Anton Wahlberg
58 NJ RW Lenni Hameenaho
59 ANH C Casey Terrance

People will argue with me on Sandin-Pelikka, I know, but his best NHL comparable is Ty Smith and we all know how that worked out. I just don't think you win with small, good-but-not-great offensive defensemen.

As far as steals? The two biggest where actually -- and strangely -- in the top 15.
Matvei Michkov at #7 overall was an insane steal by Philadelphia. The kid could rewrite the record book for the Flyers. Zach Benson at #13 for Buffalo is a close second. My closest comparable for Benson would be Kiril Kaprizov, and that's no joke. Other steals:

19 CHI C Oliver Moore
20 SEA W Eduard Sale
27 COL C Calum Ritchie
34 CLB F Gavin Brindley
43 NSH C Felix Nilsson
45 BUF RD Maxim Strbak
49 NYI C Danny Nelson
52 SEA C Oscar Fisker-Molgaard
63 FLA C Gracyn Sawcyn
64 MIN C Riley Heidt

And to speed it up, I'll give my biggest steal from every later round:

3rd Round: LW Nick Lardis (CHI) or C Jonathan Castagna (ARI)
4th Round: C Joey Willis (NSH)
5th Round: LD Rodwin Dionicio (ANH)
6th Round: LD Daniil Karpovich (NJ)
7th Round: RW Aiden Fink (NSH)

Im not going to go in depth about them all because time. If anyone asks about a specific player, I'll write back a response, of course.

My big draft winners are Chicago, Columbus and Philadelphia.

Obviously Chicago got Bedard, but Moore skates like a Hughes brother and is also a terrific player. They also made a couple great mid-round picks with Lardis and Kantserov.

Columbus won the day when Fantilli fell in their laps at #3, and won even bigger when his U of Michigan teammate Brindley fell to them in the 2nd round. I had Brindley in my top 20, probably. Pinelli and Peddle were terrific later round values and Whitelaw has huge upside if he can get over his off-ice problems.

Philadelphia got a generational player at #7 overall, which is absurd. Michkov is arguable top 5 of players drafted this century. I was hoping Arizona or San Jose would grab him, but those are two not-smart organizations, especially Arizona. Philly also hit big on mid-round picks of Barkey, Knuble, and Ciernik.

My big draft losers were Montreal and Arizona.

As much as I love Reinbacher, you don't pass on a rare talent like Michkov for this year's version of Brock Faber -- and that's coming from the biggest Brock Faber fan in draft-writing history. It didn't help that the Canadiens then whiffed big-time on every other pick. If it weren't for all the Josh Anderson-to-the-Devils-for-Dawson-Mercer-and-Luke-Hughes trade proposals, I'd almost feel bad for their fans.

As for Arizona? Just erase that franchise from existence. They also passed on Michkov for an outstanding defenseman, so no knock on Simashev, but Michkov is absolutely generational and the Coyotes have never had a star of his talents. Inexcusable for a team desperate for goals, wins and fans alike. Taking Daniil But over Zach Benson at #12 was almost laughable. Make no mistake, Benson is better than But at absolutely every facet of the game at the same LW position, and it's not close. But -- of course -- Benson is 5'9 and But is 6'5, and this in a draft where Arizona drafted big with every single pick. Unfortunately for Arizona, Benson is this year's Kaprizov -- he plays like he's 6'5 -- while But is softest 6'5 you'll ever see. Benson was my #5 overall, and would have likely been my #1 overall if he were eligible in the 2022 draft, the kid is absolutely amazing at hockey. In Arizona's defense, they also made one of my favorite picks in the draft with the ultra-competitive, big/fast/skilled Castagna in the 3rd round.

If you have any follow-up questions, just ask. Great to hear from you again on here, buddy.

“And to speed it up, I'll give my biggest steal from every later round:
7th Round: RW Aiden Fink (NSH)”

Nashville got the steal of the 7th Round with our pick !?!?


Fitz:

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

We can always draft centers next year. We should have our 1st round pick and that would be ideal if their is a good center to be taken where we pick. Right now we have Nico , Hughes , Haula , McLeod , Boqvist and even Mercer if need be up the middle. Yeah centers and another goalie will be a need for next year's draft but thankfully the big club is the opposite of the prospect pool when it comes to centers. Not worried one bit about that position for the next 3 to 5 years.

 

[Guttersniped]

We can always draft centers next year. We should have our 1st round pick and that would be ideal if their is a good center to be taken where we pick. Right now we have Nico , Hughes , Haula , McLeod , Boqvist and even Mercer if need be up the middle. Yeah centers and another goalie will be a need for next year's draft but thankfully the big club is the opposite of the prospect pool when it comes to centers. Not worried one bit about that position for the next 3 to 5 years.

You draft based on deficiencies in your prospect pool, not your roster, particularly outside of the 1st round.

No one we drafted was getting here in the next 3 years and the deficiency at center is definitely going to be a problem in future, or even arguably now since we have almost no center depth in Utica. (And no good center depth there.)

And true centers are the most value trade chip, along with RHD. We’ve done a pretty shitty job of getting draft value out of our picks under Fitz. It’s annoying.

 

[njdevils1982]

That’s a great catalogue. I’m jealous. Seriously. I’ve written thousands and thousands of pages over the past thirty years and none of them were anything I enjoyed.

i hear that in groucho marx voice