- Dec 20, 2018
- 21,877
- 47,324
It's always tough to detach yourself from a draft for long enough to analyze it so soon after the fact. In the past, my recaps have nailed it with many players from Bratt to Gritsyuk to Mercer, but I also graded a couple guys too low, like Vilen and Schmid. The 2023 draft was interesting, as it was the first Devils draft in years where the future of the team is less important than the present -- right now, New Jersey has all the makings of a legit Stanley Cup contender in 2024. So, onto the picks:
2nd Round (58): RW Lenni Hameenaho, Assat FIN
Hameenaho is probably the most unique prospect the Devils have drafted in the past two years. I can't remember ever seeing such a discrepancy between a player's mental and physical sides to their game. This is to say, Hameenaho's hockey IQ is off the charts -- absolutely elite. He anticipates plays on both sides of the puck as well as any player out of Finland in a half decade. He's always in position and not only never makes a dumb play, but I don't think I've ever seen Hameenaho make a not-extremely-smart play. He's just so mature, poised, and adept at the mental part of the game. He's also a heart-and-soul kid -- willing to pay the price in the dirty areas, always battling. He's basically a coaches dream every time on he's on the ice.
However, he's just not a physically gifted athlete in any sense of the word. Although he offers good size at 6'1-185, Hameenaho offers no plus tools. He's not gifted in passing vision, his shot his meh, he's not particularly strong. Most concerning is Hameenaho's skating. I don't want to be down on such a likable player, but the cold, hard fact is Hameenaho is not a "below-average" skater; he's downright sluggish. I'd go so far to say that Hameenaho might be the slowest skating forward taken in the entire 2023 draft. This is going to be a big-time impediment to overcome if Hameenaho is going to make the NHL.
I'd say Hameenaho's upside -- IF he can improve his skating to at least near-average -- is a bottom six forward for this reason. Despite being one of the 3 or 4 smartest players in the entire 2023 class, he just possesses no physical tools which pop, and one huge red flag in skating. For this reason, I'd say Hameenaho would have made a good enough pick in the 4th or 5th round, but certainly not in the 2nd round for a team with no 1st round pick. That's where you swing for the fences, but the Devils chose to sacrifice bunt.
My pick here would have been Riley Heidt, a physical forward with big time offensive upside who should have gone top 20, but wound up going #64 to Minnesota. Though Hameenaho's intelligence gives him a solid floor which belies his athletic limitations, there were at least 50 forwards with more upside available with this pick, and that's no exaggeration. Do I like Hameenaho? Yes. Do I like him as the #58 pick for New Jersey? No. The Devils needed centers and high-upside wingers, and Hameenaho's ultimate ceiling is an NHL bottom 6 RW.
Grade: C-
4th Round (122): RW Cam Squires, Cape Breton QMJHL
Cam Squires is an interesting selection. Though he is also a RW who needs work on his skating, he is not *slow* like Hameenaho, and his calling card is also a high hockey IQ. Squires is also a very slick passer with plus vision. He's a skinny kid at 6'0-160 who will need to work on his core strength to improve his play in puck battles, his skating burst, and his shot which, despite a slick release and very good accuracy, lacks any mustard.
Ultimately, Squires is a project with some upside, which is perfectly fine when drafting in the 120s. He was nearly a PPG player with 64 points in 67 games, and it's safe to expect a big jump in those numbers next season. I like the pick, but ultimately Squires' NHL future will hinge upon his ability to improve his strength and speed to compete in professional hockey.
Grade: B-
5th Round (154): RD Chase Cheslock, Omaha USHL
The Tom Fitzgerald-era Devils seem to be outstanding at drafting defensemen, and Cheslock is the latest great pick at the position. Most of the season, the 6'3-210 rearguard absolutely dominated the Minnesota high school ranks at Rogers HS, scoring at over a PPG clip while being the most dominant defender in USHS hockey. Defense is Cheslock's calling card, after all. He's advanced in his positioning and gaps, especially for a player on his level. This is to say most high school defensemen with draft aspirations dominate at such a level that they leave their positional play behind to strut their stuff. Cheslock is the opposite, just a stifling defensive presence.
Cheslock is abetted not only by his size, but by the fact he features above-average 4-way mobility and excellent athleticism to go along with his freakish strength. He is effectively physical without going out of his way to seek out the big hit. His puck skills also impress -- he passes and shoots well, although sometimes he can bobble pucks. If he has a weakness it's his hands, but it's not any sort of red flag of note.
After his high school season, Cheslock went on to the USHL, where he skated for the Omaha Lancers. It is a very tough transition to go from a regular high school league to a brutally structured, defensive league with 19-20 year olds, but Cheslock barely skipped a beat. He was, in fact, quite good for Omaha in a short, end-season stint.
Cheslock's upside is likely as a third-pairing compliment to an offensive LD with the ability to kill penalties and slot up the roster in case of injury. His size, mobility and solid puck play give him a very reasonable floor as a key AHLer who can fill in capably at the NHL level. This is a very good pick for the 5th round, especially since there might be untapped upside in this type of player, and I might be underselling him. We'll know a lot more about Cheslock after he skates a full season with Omaha in 2023-24.
Grade: A-
6th Round (164): LW Cole Brown, Hamilton OHL
I think the Devils were hoping for a Filmon-type pick with Brown, a rangy 6'3-180 LW with some intriguing skills, notably a plus shot and some nice hands and passing vision. All the tools are there except for the skating, which I'd call average at best. It's safe to say the Devils did not put a premium on skating ability for forwards at the 2023 draft.
Still, for a 6th round pick it's tough to complain about a 6'3 winger with skill and upside who plays a heady and hard-working game. Due to his mental attributes and intangibles, he should be able to carve out a bottom 6 role even if he does not blossom into more of a scorer with increased responsibility next year with the Hamilton Bulldogs. Though he's not nearly as good a player right now as Hameenaho or Squires, his upside might be highest of the three due to his superior athleticism -- but again, this is a player Devils fans will have to be patient with.
Grade: B+
6th Round (186): LD Daniil Karpovich, Yekaterinburg MHL
Typical of the Devils, they waited until the 6th round to get a borderline 1st round value.
Simply put, Karpovich was one of the top 5 or so defensemen for the entire 2023 draft class. Anyone who chooses to debate me on this needs to find me another extremely mobile 6'3-210 blueliner with high end offensive capability both 5x5 and on the PP and a bomb of a shot. Karpovich is a plus puck handler and passer who is excellent at getting pucks on net through traffic and creating offense from the point. He still needs work defensively, but that is not to say he's not a good defender. While Karpovich clearly needs work on (very fixable) problems of gaps and positioning, he's still a plus defender due to his ability to win puck battles, clear creases, and make smart, accurate outlet passes to get his team out of trouble.
It is for these reasons that Karpovich's upside is, well... huge. Had I ranked this year, he probably would have cracked the end of my first round. The kid from Belarus is also a beast when motivated. Though normally he prefers a more finesse-oriented, puck possession game, I watched a couple MHL contests where an opposing forward got under his skin and Karpovich sent them literally flying. He's a big, strong and athletic kid. Certainly, there's a lot of development in store for him, but it's not unreasonable to envision a future stalwart NHLer who can be a two-way beast for a middle pairing.
How can such a player fall to Round 6, you ask? Well, as myself and the extremely prescient @Guadana have lamented at length in recent years, many NHL teams are extremely lax in scouting the MHL, and many draft-writers don't watch MHL hockey at all. It's an outstanding league, just below the CHL and far more competitive than the Swedish or Finnish junior circuits. And Karpovich dominated with an otherworldly 35 points in 47 games on defense while playing far better physically and defensively than most offense-first defenders at the same age.
Also simply put, Daniil Karpovich is potentially the pick which will positively define the New Jersey Devils 2023 draft.
Grade: A+
Look who it is!
Excellent work!
