Buffalo Bills It's the Off-Season. Go.

[truthbluth]

Me now seeing the Bills rumored to trade up:

The rumor isba trade up targeting BTJ or Worthy. Not sure it means a huge package.

 

[Husko]

Legette is intriguing to me because of the wide range of opinions. Joe Marino has him as WR4 ahead of BTJ.

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And I am really interested in the late in the process smoke about the Bills liking Worthy. As soon as he blistered the 40 at the combine, I wondered what the offense could look like if he turns into a DJax-esque burner on the outside.

Yeah he's got to be the biggest enigma in terms of range. For example, Brugler has him WR14 with a 3rd round grade:

For me, there's the top 3 (or 4 if you want to include BTJ), then McConkey and Mitchell, then a group of like 10 guys you could put in any order.

 

[Husko]

Me now seeing the Bills rumored to trade up:

Ok, but Schefter's metric has an inherent flaw. It says second contract "with the team that drafted them." That would mean Edmunds counts as a miss which is silly. Center is so high, for example, because it's such a cheap position to reup. A better metric would be percent of players to earn second contracts above a certain percent of market value at their position.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Franklin's build/strength actually never bothered me.

My issue was that I didn't think he was a natural hands catcher, he really lets the ball get into his body A LOT on tape. And when you have a QB like Allen that really whips the ball in tight spaces and over the middle, body catchers are going to struggle big time trying to grab some of those passes.

Regarding type of receiver, I try not to delineate too much between boundary vs slot. With jet motions, cheat motions, tight formations, trips alignments, etc, I think the receiver position is more positionless now more than ever before. I'm in the same boat as Matt Harmon, give me a dude that can separate and has good hands and I think a coordinator can put together a good offense. For that reason I'm higher on guys like Wilson, Pearsall, and McConkey.

I respect your opinions in these threads more than most. And you make good points here - so I'll just disagree politely.

But regarding the bolded... Beane himself recently said that having different body types, skill sets, etc was important. I don't think this was any type of 'smoke' either. It was a sincere comment.

While I'll never come close to fully agreeing with @Ace & some of his bonkers takes... One thing he's right about in his post above - you can't go into the season with Mack Hollins as your best boundary receiver.

That's why some of these guys are off the list for me.

Wilson's separation at the senior bowl was noteworthy, but I'm pretty sure the RP profile says he didn't do it that much in games.
Pearsall and McConkey firmly in the conversation for me at 28. I'd add Legette. Those three. If it's not going to happen at 28, I'm skeptical any of those three are around with even a modest trade back.
At 60, I' looking at Javon Baker, Jermaine Burton, Ja'Lynn Polk, Troy Franklin, and yes, Keon Coleman who I believe is worth the risk in the back of the 2nd.

There's a scenario where the Bills pass on WR at 28, and then there's a run, and nobody of valuenis there at 60. That's why, IMO, if the Bills stand pat at 28, they HAVE to draft a WR. Or, they have to plan a trade up in the 2nd.

I think there will be guys available at #60 - but if you want to secure your first or second choice from that tier - you're moving up from #60 to #40ish.

My dream scenario would be coming away with a guy like DeJean at #28 & a Franklin or Legette early day 2.

I really think Legette is going to go earlier than he should though.

NFL Draft prospects I'm higher or lower on than most: Why Drake Maye makes me nervous

Maye and two Georgia prospects are among those who have me scratching my head, while I love a UCLA pass rusher and Clemson cornerback.

theathletic.com

Vaki is one of those guys that should be no surprise if the Bills take him on day 3 of the draft.

Unless we draft DeJean - I'm firmly on the Ainias Smith train sometime during day 3 to be the returner.

 

[Husko]

2024 HF Bills Big Board 36

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

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Please vote in our penultimate poll! Final poll will be up this afternoon!

 

[truthbluth]

Unless we draft DeJean - I'm firmly on the Ainias Smith train sometime during day 3 to be the returner.

Yes!!

 

[Fezzy126]

I respect your opinions in these threads more than most. And you make good points here - so I'll just disagree politely.

But regarding the bolded... Beane himself recently said that having different body types, skill sets, etc was important. I don't think this was any type of 'smoke' either. It was a sincere comment.

While I'll never come close to fully agreeing with @Ace & some of his bonkers takes... One thing he's right about in his post above - you can't go into the season with Mack Hollins as your best boundary receiver.

That's why some of these guys are off the list for me.

I appreciate the polite disagreement (also the respect flies both ways), but we're here for the discussion and debates, it's how we expand our minds and grow! Plus, I'm not exactly Bill Walsh, just an opinionated fan that likes to read a lot and watch a bunch of football, so if everyone agreed with me I'd be pretty scared

Regarding WR usage, I see a lot similarities in modern passing offense with the old run and shoot teams (Oiler and Falcons in the 90's). Those offenses featured a bunch of smallish, quick and speedy WRs (Haywood Jeffries was probably the only exception) and really were innovative with presnap motion and option routes to scheme guys open.

I'm not exactly saying I don't want a guy that can be considered a true X or boundary receiver, I really just don't want to pass up guys like Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, or Josh Downs to chase a body type like, say for example Quentin Johnston.

Also, I think the term boundary and X receiver are too often conflated, we can draft someone like Worthy and use him as a traditional Z i.e. an off the ball boundary receiver. It's exactly how guys like Desean Jackson and Tyreke Hill have been used historically, and they don't fit the traditional "Boundary Receiver" body type.

 

[Jim Bob]

PFF Analytics 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Seven quarterbacks go in the first round, including J.J. McCarthy to the Giants, Bo Nix to the Broncos | NFL Draft | PFF

What if we lived in a world where teams avoided analytically unsound decisions in the draft? Well, this is exactly what this mock aims to achieve, as it reflects how teams should approach their picks from an analytical point of view.

www.pff.com

28. BUFFALO BILLS: WR XAVIER WORTHY, TEXAS​

Worthy will not be the only receiver the Bills pick during this draft. What can I say? He is fast, and Josh Allen can throw it far. Sometimes, football is simple.

I love an analytics mock that has the Bills pick as a guy that [checks notes] ran a ridiculous 40 at the combine.



I will not be upset if Worthy is their guy. Although, he is that one guy that I have been afraid to fall in love with because of the questions about his drops. And this is an Al Davis pick if there ever was one.

2024 NFL Draft: One prediction for all 32 NFL teams | NFL Draft | PFF

Surprise picks, huge trades and expected outcomes will all be part of the 2024 NFL Draft, and we do our best here to predict them.

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BUFFALO BILLS: MAKE AN AGGRESSIVE MOVE FOR A WIDE RECEIVER​

After trading away Stefon Diggs, who saw 74 more targets than any other player on the Bills' roster in the regular season and playoffs last year, it wouldn’t be shocking if Buffalo is aggressive in adding a replacement. That could come in the form of a trade for a veteran, a small jump up to land a player like LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. or an even bigger move to land one of the draft's top receivers.

This would be the least surprising outcome of the draft.

 

[Zman5778]

Hard agree. 60 is off the table. That pick is a day one starter. Next year's first is fine, but 60 is a non-starter.

IMO, the only way I include 60 in a draft-day trade to go get one of the big 3 is if the team I'm trading with also sends back an early-to-mid 3rd this year. That likely still keeps us in the mix for a safety that could start or maybe possibly an edge rusher.

So something like 28, 60, 2025 1st plus a kick-in or two for a higher 1st and a 3rd.

Would Odunze or Nabers or MHJ be worth the package we'd have to send? Boy, that's debateable to me.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

1/2 Predictions everyone ?

McConkey and a safety for me.

Do not see Beane moving up very high, but 2-8 spots perhaps if Thomas is there and the return makes sense.

 

[TehDoak]

1/2 Predictions everyone ?

McConkey and a safety for me.

Do not see Beane moving up very high, but 2-8 spots perhaps if Thomas is there and the return makes sense.

Trade back, pick up a 3rd

Draft one of Legette/McConkey/Franklin with our 1st pick

A safety at the 2nd seems reasonable as well

 

[Zman5778]

1/2 Predictions everyone ?

Beane does Beane. Trades up into the early 20s if BTJ is there. If not, trades up for the WR he likes best after that.

Round 2? Best safety or edge left on their board.

 

[Husko]

1/2 Predictions everyone ?

McConkey and a safety for me.

Do not see Beane moving up very high, but 2-8 spots perhaps if Thomas is there and the return makes sense.

Trades up a few spots for a tier 2 WR

 

[Selanne00008]

Others have mentioned it. Myself and I think it was Husko.

But, without trading up earlier this week, boy it could be hard to convince a team to trade out of the top 10 all the way down to 28. Would have been much easier to get to 19-22 first, and then trade up again like how we did for JA17. Maybe it could be done with Chicago at 9? It's not HIGH into the top 10, and they could use multiple picks later in the draft on top of having #1 overall.

I just don't see the Titans or someone like that moving alll the way down.

Eitherway, I'm not a big fan of the classic Beane move where we give up a 4th to move up a couple spots. Sit at 28 and let whoever you're interested in come to you, move all the way up for your high end ferrari, or possibly trade back slightly. (then trade UP into the 3rd).

 

[Ace]

Do you think Beane looks at the cost of top WR contracts and wishes he’d have taken the future of the position at all seriously since he got here? Or is he too busy dreaming of depth pass rushers who don’t get stops in the playoffs?

 

[Selanne00008]

Do you think Beane looks at the cost of top WR contracts and wishes he’d have taken the future of the position at all seriously since he got here? Or is he too busy dreaming of depth pass rushers who don’t get stops in the playoffs?

My thought that somewhat answers is, there's gonna be 10-15 WRs that are most likely going to be productive right off the bat after this draft. Some will bust or have a limited roll, but more than usual will probly get starting roles.

So, why pay ultra premium for an Aiyuk or a Diggs when the supply is going way up and the demand stays the same across the league. Which sorta of lends to me why would he trade up when there's going to be productive rookies later in the draft.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I appreciate the polite disagreement (also the respect flies both ways), but we're here for the discussion and debates, it's how we expand our minds and grow! Plus, I'm not exactly Bill Walsh, just an opinionated fan that likes to read a lot and watch a bunch of football, so if everyone agreed with me I'd be pretty scared

Regarding WR usage, I see a lot similarities in modern passing offense with the old run and shoot teams (Oiler and Falcons in the 90's). Those offenses featured a bunch of smallish, quick and speedy WRs (Haywood Jeffries was probably the only exception) and really were innovative with presnap motion and option routes to scheme guys open.

I'm not exactly saying I don't want a guy that can be considered a true X or boundary receiver, I really just don't want to pass up guys like Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, or Josh Downs to chase a body type like, say for example Quentin Johnston.

Also, I think the term boundary and X receiver are too often conflated, we can draft someone like Worthy and use him as a traditional Z i.e. an off the ball boundary receiver. It's exactly how guys like Desean Jackson and Tyreke Hill have been used historically, and they don't fit the traditional "Boundary Receiver" body type.

I think you're reading a little too much into the 'body type' comment. Although i would prefer a bigger guy for obvious reasons - I'm warming to Franklin & he doesn't have that prototypical size. My worries with Worthy aren't due to his size either.

I just don't see guys like McConkey, Pearsall & certainly Wilson as being able to play the role effectively. Square pegs in round holes. Maybe Shakir or Samuel could... But i think they are better suited to other roles.

Since I've only been following this game for a relatively short time - i can't really comment on the 90s teams you refer to. I guess the best response i could make is that few current successful teams have that prototypical alpha/#1 boundary receiver at all - which many fans clamour for. But many do have a legitimate vertical threat as part of their arsenal. This team currently doesn't have that.

 

[Husko]

I think you're reading a little too much into the 'body type' comment. Although i would prefer a bigger guy for obvious reasons - I'm warming to Franklin & he doesn't have that prototypical size. My worries with Worthy aren't due to his size either.

I just don't see guys like McConkey, Pearsall & certainly Wilson as being able to play the role effectively. Square pegs in round holes. Maybe Shakir or Samuel could... But i think they are better suited to other roles.

Since I've only been following this game for a relatively short time - i can't really comment on the 90s teams you refer to. I guess the best response i could make is that few current successful teams have that prototypical alpha/#1 boundary receiver at all - which many fans clamour for. But many do have a legitimate vertical threat as part of their arsenal. This team currently doesn't have that.

What role/function specifically are you referring to?

While I have concerns about someone like Wilson's ability to play outside, McConkey I think could step right into Diggs now-gaping hole.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Nice to see that a few of you guys have come around on the need to add a safety.

Who do you like - assuming DeJean is off limits?

I'm still thinking Kinchens could be a great pick if he falls. Also like Javon Bullard as a poor man's DeJean.

Another guy l like is Cole Bishop - but I'm not sure he meshes so well with what they already have on the roster & what's typically asked of safeties in McD's scheme.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

What role/function specifically are you referring to?

While I have concerns about someone like Wilson's ability to play outside, McConkey I think could step right into Diggs now-gaping hole.

If we're basing it on last year - the 'Davis' role.

This is what I'm by far most concerned about replacing.

I think the 'Diggs' role gets 'replaced' by committee. Samuel, improvement from Kincaid, improvement from Shakir, etc.

Diggs former role under Daboll/Dorsey should now be considered redundant on this team.

They do still need a legitimate deep threat even if it's used as a deterrent to opposing defenses more often than not. I hate to keep bringing up KC as a blueprint - but the way they used MVS in recent years would be their comparable.

 

[Selanne00008]

I think you're reading a little too much into the 'body type' comment. Although i would prefer a bigger guy for obvious reasons - I'm warming to Franklin & he doesn't have that prototypical size. My worries with Worthy aren't due to his size either.

I just don't see guys like McConkey, Pearsall & certainly Wilson as being able to play the role effectively. Square pegs in round holes. Maybe Shakir or Samuel could... But i think they are better suited to other roles.

Since I've only been following this game for a relatively short time - i can't really comment on the 90s teams you refer to. I guess the best response i could make is that few current successful teams have that prototypical alpha/#1 boundary receiver at all - which many fans clamour for. But many do have a legitimate vertical threat as part of their arsenal. This team currently doesn't have that.

When it coms to WR and looks, IDGAF. I'm very moneyball with that. Tyreek Hill is how big? He can lineup anywhere. Can the WR catch the ball? Can they create solid separation? Are they productive? If that's the case, and they've lined up anywhere, they could be 5'7" for all I care.

The big body/lengthy WRs tend to slow down faster anyways as they age obviously.

 

[Husko]

If we're basing it on last year - the 'Davis' role.

This is what I'm by far most concerned about replacing.

I think the 'Diggs' role gets 'replaced' by committee. Samuel, improvement from Kincaid, improvement from Shakir, etc.

Diggs former role under Daboll/Dorsey should now be considered redundant on this team.

They do still need a legitimate deep threat even if it's used as a deterrent to opposing defenses more often than not. I hate to keep bringing up KC as a blueprint - but the way they used MVS in recent years would be their comparable.

So the Davis role, I see two key attributes/functions:
-Bigger body that can block down, play on the LOS, and in theory beat a press (though Davis was very bad at that)
-Field stretcher

The first part, Mack was obviously brought in for blocking. I don't know enough about Samuel to know his capacity playing on the LOS and beating a press. Shakir we can't say because Davis never left the field, he played mostly in the slot.

The second part, Samuel was obviously brought in for his ability to stretch the field. That component can also be partly filled by someone playing Diggs Z position.


So I guess the biggest disconnect is I don't see Samuel/Shakir as filling the Diggs role or as redundant with someone like McConkey. More than anything what I still see a big need for is an elite separator. It's what plagued us down the offense down the stretch each of the last two seasons and while it's something Samuel is good at, I don't think that's enough. The offense was at its best when it had 3 plus separators in Diggs, Brown, and Beasley.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Speculation: Steelers have restructured Highsmith, apparently to open up cap space for possible trade for Aiyuk perhaps.

 

[Husko]

Nice to see that a few of you guys have come around on the need to add a safety.

Who do you like - assuming DeJean is off limits?

I'm still thinking Kinchens could be a great pick if he falls. Also like Javon Bullard as a poor man's DeJean.

Another guy l like is Cole Bishop - but I'm not sure he meshes so well with what they already have on the roster & what's typically asked of safeties in McD's scheme.

They absolutely need to take a safety somewhere. I don't know anything about the class after Dejean and Hicks though. I think it's one of the hardest positions for us amatuers to evaluate because it's so much what's between the ears.

Looking at Brugler's writeup, I wonder if Bullard would be a good fit:

A two-year starter at Georgia, Bullard played the field safety role in head coach Kirby Smart’s 3 -3-5 base scheme, and he also saw reps in the box and slot. The lowest-ranked recruit in Smart’s 2021 recruiting class, he played the “STAR” nickel position i n 2022 before moving to free safety. He didn’t allow atouchdown in coverage during the 2023 season. With his swagger fitting up the run, Bullard is assignment sound as a down safe ty, where he can quickly diagnose,drive and make plays at the football. He has the eye balance to rapidly read routes, although his timing will need to be pristine to cover NFL receivers and tight end s.Overall, Bullard doesn’t have ideal size or length, but he is ultra-instinctive and makes his presence felt at all three levels of the field. His skill set fits best as a hybrid nickel defender who can handle box duties, disguise his intentions and drop into space.

So he's played FS, box, and slot. Instinctual player with lacking physical traits. Good production. sounds like a sort of perfect fit for what McDermott wants.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

When it coms to WR and looks, IDGAF. I'm very moneyball with that. Tyreek Hill is how big? He can lineup anywhere. Can the WR catch the ball? Can they create solid separation? Are they productive? If that's the case, and they've lined up anywhere, they could be 5'7" for all I care.

The big body/lengthy WRs tend to slow down faster anyways as they age obviously.

Hill is a truly unique player. How many teams have tried to draft 'the next Hill' only for them to bust? It's besides the point anyway - this team doesn't need to find 'the next Hill'. While he's a great player - KC haven't missed a beat without him & Miami haven't won anything with him. Just goes further to prove the theory that a #1/alpha receiver is simply not the necessity that many believe it to be....

If a player is productive playing in a certain role or within a certain scheme - it is absolutely fair to question how & why that production is happening. You then project that into how you see this offence coming together, how that meshes with current players on the roster, etc. It's not like playing Madden in rookie mode...