GDT: It's Beginning To Look A lot Like Hockey Season. STL vs DAL. Don't make me break out the trains.

[taylord22]

The top line is good, but I am not sure about they middle 6. Maybe the just need time to gel, but it’s a bit of an odd collection of parts this game.

That's how I saw it, as well. There were forced passes by all of the top line, but they also created a lot of high danger chances — and, perhaps most importantly — were disruptive in the defensive zone against the Seguin/Benn line(s) for 2 periods. I would've liked to see more chances, but..."Heiskanen" ... he was the best skater on the ice.

Schenn had a good game, and Saad had some good moments, but there weren't many looks from the middle-6 players. I would like to see Kap/Vrana switch spots for some shifts. Kap just wasn't in scoring position when 10/20 did have possession, and while Vrana does technically add some much needed speed to the Hayes/Blais line, he's not a straight line player.

The 4th line showed a lot of promise. They were effective against Dallas which bodes well about them causing a lot more chaos against lesser teams.

What disappointed me the most about last night was:
1.) Bottom 9 forwards passing up shots to make the extra pass - especially when big bodies were around the net.

2.) Puck keep-ins. We were bad last year. We were terrible, last night. The defense has to start making better plays under pressure at the line, and being in better position to stop the puck from coming out. If the forwards don't stop the puck at the half-wall, it's nearly automatic that the puck is coming out. OZ possession is not the sole responsibility of the forwards. It felt like 3 on 5 when the Thomas line did get an established OZ possession.

3.) Faceoffs — unsurprised Dallas got the better of us -they get the better of most teams- but that was extremely slanted.

 

[Frenzy31]

The top line is good, but I am not sure about they middle 6. Maybe the just need time to gel, but it’s a bit of an odd collection of parts this game.

I think the Hayes line has potential and they looked to create a bit last night. But the other line really has no puck carries on it. May need to move JK down to it and maybe Saad up with Thomas. Not ideal, but

 

[Thallis]

The good:
- We played very well in the 2nd after the goal.
- Defensive structure was obviously better.
- Binnington got dialed in as the game went on.
- Top Line got chances off the rush

The Bad:
- Despite the box + 1, still gave up a ton of shots from the house
- This team sucks at forechecking and I'm not sure if that will vibe long term with a box + 1 offensively.
- PP forced passes through skates, & I don't like the personnel set up.

The ugly:
- 3 shots in the 3rd of a tie game.
- Jamie Rivers is repetitive and says things that are straight up wrong on the regular.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

3.) Faceoffs — unsurprised Dallas got the better of us -they get the better of most teams- but that was extremely slanted.

Dallas won 52.5% against our 47.5% that's much closer to even than extremely slanted. Unless you are talking about everyone not named Thomas or Hayes who won 57% and 60% respectfully.

Edit. They won 3 more Faceoffs than we did.

 

[Brian39]

I really liked Tucker's game. He was making quicker/smarter decisions with the puck under pressure than he did last year and I thought he did a better job getting to contested pucks with positioning to actually make a play. He only got 13 minutes, but I thought he had a number of 'plus' plays in that limited time. I hope his night earned him a couple more minutes on Saturday.

Great opening night for Binner. Just like last year. And the year before. In fact, that marks the 5th straight season where he has been really good and won his 1st game of the year. He's only been below .920 once in those 5 games and that was a .906 against Colorado (the eventual Cup champs) where we were pretty badly out-chanced. Binner shows up to work with his A game every year. A rested Binner is a top 15 NHL goalie. Can we please, please, please start proactively managing his workload early in the season to keep him rested instead of waiting to rest him until he starts to show signs of wear?

Dallas is a damn good team that took over in the last 15 minutes. But I thought that it was a pretty damn even game for 45 minutes before that. Even though Dallas created a big shot gap in the first 10-15 minutes, I thought we did a great job keeping them to the outside and holding them to very low percentage shots. And then the few looks we got in the 1st were much higher quality. We had a really good 2nd period too. Binner stood tall, but I wouldn't say this was a game where we were 'lucky' to get to OT.

For as much as we got outplayed in the 3rd and couldn't get/maintain control, it was refreshing to see us with something still resembling defensive structure in the home plate area. The coverage was far from perfect, but last year's team would have fallen apart completely and allowed multiple tic-tac-toe back door tap ins instead of simply allowing a number of high danger looks. I don't think this group is ever going to be amazing defensively, but that looked like an NHL D group last night.

All in all, I'd give this game an A-. Tons of positives and we got a point against a damn good team that outscored us 10-3 last year. In terms of 'projecting the future,' I will take a 2-1 shootout loss over a 5-4 win.

 

[TurgPavs]

Kyrou is never ever going to buy into the system that Berube is playing.
I get the fact that he is a 30-40 goal and 60+ point guy, however so was Tarasenko.
Kyrou makes Tarasenko look like a frigging Selke candidate.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Kyrou is never ever going to buy into the system that Berube is playing.
I get the fact that he is a 30-40 goal and 60+ point guy, however so was Tarasenko.
Kyrou makes Tarasenko look like a frigging Selke candidate.

What did he flub on defense yesterday?

 

[Majorityof1]

Kyrou is never ever going to buy into the system that Berube is playing.
I get the fact that he is a 30-40 goal and 60+ point guy, however so was Tarasenko.
Kyrou makes Tarasenko look like a frigging Selke candidate.

Kyrou is a 70+ point guy. Those 10 points matter as that puts him on a different level of offense. He has 80 point potential, which is something Tarasenko achieved once in his career..

And why will he never buy in? Do you know him personally? This just seems like you don't like the guy, which is fine. But that doesn't make what you are saying true.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I just realized why Vrana seemed so invisible last night. He had the 2nd lowest TOI of any player with less than 12 minutes of Ice Time.

 

[Reality Czech]

The top line is good, but I am not sure about they middle 6. Maybe the just need time to gel, but it’s a bit of an odd collection of parts this game.

This is why I would put either Buch or Kyrou on another line so the scoring is more balanced. Schenn, Saad and Kap should be fairly responsible and hard working but not terribly offensive. More like a checking line than scoring line. With Buch Thomas Vrana and Saad Schenn Kyrou you've got two solid scoring lines and two competent bottom 6 lines. Nothing against Hayes, but I also think we'd get the most out of Vrana if he's playing with Thomas. And maybe playing with Schenn will help Kyrou raise his intensity level. Schenn and Saad would be good influences for him.

If they insist on keeping the big three together, my choice would be to switch Kap/Vrana. Not sure why Kapanen deserves more 5on5 ice time than Vrana.

I thought the 4th line played pretty well overall and did their job. Sunny sure looked rejuvenated and Torpo was hitting everything. Neighbours didn't do that much but was solid for the most part. Nice to see him get a bit of PK time. I bet he's the kind of guy that will take on any role he's asked to.

 

[Blueston]

I just realized why Vrana seemed so invisible last night. He had the 2nd lowest TOI of any player with less than 12 minutes of Ice Time.

did he even touch the puck? presumably he must have as he got an assist, but i don't recall him doing anything to merit more ice time.

 

[Majorityof1]

did he even touch the puck? presumably he must have as he got an assist, but i don't recall him doing anything to merit more ice time.

He had a nice assist on Tucker's goal, a scoring chance and a takeaway. He had the best CF%, GF%, xGF% on the team that game. Very small sample size, but he looked good to my eye test too. Not sure why he got so little ice time. The whole 3rd line which I think looked good, got less 5v5 ice time than their 4th line counterpart.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I think I may have been watching a different game then a lot of you last night. I think we were solid for about 10-12 minutes in the second period, and other then that, we were badly outplayed by the Stars (Who were missing their top C btw).

By the numbers (All 5v5 unless otherwise noted):

The Good- The Parayko/Leddy pairing - these guys were basically the lone bright spot on D last night, controlling around 53% of shot attempts, 60% of scoring chances, with an xGF% of 65%. Really really solid night for that pairing.

Binnington - everyone with eyes could see that he was sharp last night. The goal that got called back was a tip from 2 feet in front of the net (God Rivers is f***ing trash compared to Pang, didn't even notice it at all and call it out whereas I'm used to that from Pang as second nature) and the Benn goal went off Tucker's stick and then off the bar. Please for the love of god rest him so he doesn't turn into a pumpkin again.

The third line of Hayes/Blais/Vrana - by the numbers they were BY FAR our best line last night, controlling upwards of 90% of shot attempts (Vrana) and both Vrana and Blais having an over 85% xGF%. They should have gotten more 5v5 TOI.

Kapenen - used his speed well to generate some chances. Controlled 55% of shot attempts and had an xGF% of 68. Solid game from him.

Our PK - we didn't give up a back door tap in so I'm happy.

The Bad - Sunny/Neighbors/Toro - This trio was 100% caved in last night, controlling at best 26% (Toro) and at worst 17% (Neighbors) of shot attempts.....yet they all had an xGF% of over 60%....that's gotta be one of the strangest stat lines I've seen.

The Ugly - Our Top 6, Krug/Faulk, and the PP.

Zero shots on goal in three PP tries. Oof.

Thomas/Buch/Kyrou and Schenn/Saad were caved in at 5v5, controlling sub 40% of shot attempts and having xGF of no higher then 36. I don't even want to post the Krug/Faulk numbers b/c they make my eyes hurt.

Long story short - 5 of our top 6 forwards and 2 of our top 4 D got absolutely destroyed last night by a Stars team that was missing it's top Center. Obviously it's one game, but we were lucky to get even a point last night, and that was basically 100% thanks to Binnington playing out of his mind.

It's going to be a long season if this is what we can expect from our top forwards.

 

[Xerloris]

The Good- The Parayko/Leddy pairing - these guys were basically the lone bright spot on D last night

I think out D was pretty decent overall. Nothing spectacular but after last year, not being complete trash is a drastic improvement.

Please for the love of god rest him so he doesn't turn into a pumpkin again.

I think he can handle more than 1 game in a row but I agree, let's make sure he gets a rest at least 2 our of 10 games.

The Bad - Sunny/Neighbors/Toro

I assume you mean as a total line but Sunny was pretty great. It was awesome seeing him play for us again.

The Ugly - Our Top 6, Krug/Faulk, and the PP.

Krug and faulk were not bad, I don't get why you think they were? Is it because they weren't amazing? There's a large middle ground between amazing and shit.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I think out D was pretty decent overall. Nothing spectacular but after last year, not being complete trash is a drastic improvement.

I think he can handle more than 1 game in a row but I agree, let's make sure he gets a rest at least 2 our of 10 games.

I assume you mean as a total line but Sunny was pretty great. It was awesome seeing him play for us again.

Krug and faulk were not bad, I don't get why you think they were? Is it because they weren't amazing? There's a large middle ground between amazing and shit.

Screen cap of Krug/Faulk's advanced stats last night:

Now I sorted by xGF%, but no matter what stat you sort by, they are at the bottom of the list and it's ugly.

Sunny's numbers were pretty ass too. This is why the eye test is in many ways misleading. I get it with Sunny though, he's a fan favorite and he's back so we're all happy about that. But make no mistake, he was statistically pretty terrible last night.

 

[TK 421]

I want Vrana up with Thomas/Kyrou, move Buch to help Saad/Schenn. Kapanen with Hayes/Blais.

 

[GoldenSeal]

D looked decent. Forwards looked ok. Binny showed up. It could have gotten ugly really quick many times throughout the game but the team reacted pretty well, I feel, and rolled along. Was happy with the result and I too would like Vrana moved around the lines abit, which I'm sure Chief will do. Thomas + Kyrou + Vrana could be a very effective line.

So far, so good.

 

[Thallis]

Screen cap of Krug/Faulk's advanced stats last night:

View attachment 752353

Now I sorted by xGF%, but no matter what stat you sort by, they are at the bottom of the list and it's ugly.

Sunny's numbers were pretty ass too. This is why the eye test is in many ways misleading. I get it with Sunny though, he's a fan favorite and he's back so we're all happy about that. But make no mistake, he was statistically pretty terrible last night.

The system we're running is going to lead to some pretty extreme xGF stats against in public models, speaking as someone who has used it as a baseline in the past (and also is extremely skeptical on potential success of of the box+1 for us long term). Keep in mind that this is the same defense Vegas ran all season last year and the public xGF didn't look good for them either. The big thing we need to be looking for is east/west passes that connect in the slot and inner slot shots. We did give up a decent number of them last night, so there is something to these in this instance, but it's not as simple as reading public xGF.

 

[Majorityof1]

Screen cap of Krug/Faulk's advanced stats last night:

View attachment 752353

Now I sorted by xGF%, but no matter what stat you sort by, they are at the bottom of the list and it's ugly.

Sunny's numbers were pretty ass too. This is why the eye test is in many ways misleading. I get it with Sunny though, he's a fan favorite and he's back so we're all happy about that. But make no mistake, he was statistically pretty terrible last night.

Eye test is misleading, but so can advanced stats be. Especially with only 10 or so minutes of ice time for a player. The numbers you are looking at are on-ice #s that reflect the whole team's performance when the player is one-ice. Over 10 minutes when you are with the same 2 wings the whole time, it can really effect your stats. Sunqvist had bad team #s but was Sunny ass, or was Neighbours and Torop?

Sunny led the team in HD scoring chances with 2, was 2nd on the team with 3 total scoring chances, drew a penalty, and PK'd for 1:42 without giving up a single Corsi event against and having 2 scoring chances For (including having an individual HD chance himself). Sunny was really good, 5v5 on-ice advanced stats be damned.

 

[GoldenSeal]

The system we're running is going to lead to some pretty extreme xGF stats against in public models, speaking as someone who has used it as a baseline in the past (and also is extremely skeptical on potential success of it long term). Keep in mind that this is the same defense Vegas ran all season last year and the public xGF didn't look good for them either. The big thing we need to be looking for is east/west passes that connect in the slot and inner slot shots. We did give up a decent number of them last night, so there is something to these in this instance, but it's not as simple as reading public xGF.

Yup, I think this season this team will be more an 'eye test' team than analyzing all those stats. Don't care if they look bad if the D is doing what coaching is running and we win.

 

[Xerloris]

Screen cap of Krug/Faulk's advanced stats last night:

View attachment 752353

Now I sorted by xGF%, but no matter what stat you sort by, they are at the bottom of the list and it's ugly.

Sunny's numbers were pretty ass too. This is why the eye test is in many ways misleading. I get it with Sunny though, he's a fan favorite and he's back so we're all happy about that. But make no mistake, he was statistically pretty terrible last night.

I understand your desire to used advanced stats to determine how a game went but I rely more on my eye test and Faulk and Krug were not getting caved in nearly as bad as "being at the bottom" of the advanced stats would suggest.

 

[TK 421]

Eye test is misleading, but so can advanced stats be. Especially with only 10 or so minutes of ice time for a player. The numbers you are looking at are on-ice #s that reflect the whole team's performance when the player is one-ice. Over 10 minutes when you are with the same 2 wings the whole time, it can really effect your stats. Sunqvist had bad team #s but was Sunny ass, or was Neighbours and Torop?

Sunny led the team in HD scoring chances with 2, was 2nd on the team with 3 total scoring chances, drew a penalty, and PK'd for 1:42 without giving up a single Corsi event against and having 2 scoring chances For (including having an individual HD chance himself). Sunny was really good, 5v5 on-ice advanced stats be damned.

Slight correction: Sunny drew two calls last night so 2 of our 3 PP's.

 

[Thallis]

Yup, I think this season this team will be more an 'eye test' team than analyzing all those stats. Don't care if they look bad if the D is doing what coaching is running and we win.

The problem is the system we're running is one of the most basic possible d zone schemes. It relies on ceding the edges of the zone and behind the net to protect the middle, which can lead to a LOT of zone time against if you struggle with retrievals. It also can stifle your team offensively if you get hemmed in a lot and aren't strong on the forecheck or through the neutral zone. Volume absolutely matters and there's a very real chance that we're trading offense for fewer chances against only to lose a ton of games 3-1 and 4-2

 

[Blueston]

Eye test is misleading, but so can advanced stats be. Especially with only 10 or so minutes of ice time for a player. The numbers you are looking at are on-ice #s that reflect the whole team's performance when the player is one-ice. Over 10 minutes when you are with the same 2 wings the whole time, it can really effect your stats. Sunqvist had bad team #s but was Sunny ass, or was Neighbours and Torop?

Sunny led the team in HD scoring chances with 2, was 2nd on the team with 3 total scoring chances, drew a penalty, and PK'd for 1:42 without giving up a single Corsi event against and having 2 scoring chances For (including having an individual HD chance himself). Sunny was really good, 5v5 on-ice advanced stats be damned.

I question how much we can learn from advanced stats for one game. Way too much noise, bc doesn’t distinguish among linemates, quality of opposition, or just randomness.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Meh


Game 1 of 82