Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
- 55,860
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I know I said I wouldn't comment on the Crouse discussion again, but since this thread is at 1000 posts and likely will be closed soon, it's not like I'm disrupting much more prospect chatter...
I'll focus on this part of your post because it's the one I want to respond to, but also sort of touches on the other stuff anyway.
Here's the thing. Everything you've said is actually correct. Simmonds, Lucic, etc. ARE the exception. Many big guys who are selected don't pan out and instead go the Tyler Biggs route. The problem I have with that argument against Crouse is that that applies to ALL kinds of players, not just projected powerforwards.
Guys like Marner, Barzal, etc. would also have to become the exception rather than the rule in order for them to pan out. For every top five pick like Patrick Kane, there's a Pierre Marc Bouchard, Nikita Filatov, and Sam Gagner. For every Claude Giroux, there's a tonne of undersized former CHL 100-point guys who never made it past the AHL level. All one has to do is look at the past 10 seasons and scan the 100-point scorers in each CHL league and see where the vast majority of them are today.
That's my issue with the "exception to the rule" argument. Because while you are correct in what you wrote, the issue is it can be applied to any prospect type.
Bottom line, Crouse currently looks like he could be a similar type of player at the NHL level as the guys I mentioned prior. That could change. His development could plateau. He could stagnate. But based on how he looks right now, he projects favorably to the guys who did pan out. Which was my point all along. And yes, the odds are working against him. But no more so than any other type of prospect.
I'll focus on this part of your post because it's the one I want to respond to, but also sort of touches on the other stuff anyway.
Here's the thing. Everything you've said is actually correct. Simmonds, Lucic, etc. ARE the exception. Many big guys who are selected don't pan out and instead go the Tyler Biggs route. The problem I have with that argument against Crouse is that that applies to ALL kinds of players, not just projected powerforwards.
Guys like Marner, Barzal, etc. would also have to become the exception rather than the rule in order for them to pan out. For every top five pick like Patrick Kane, there's a Pierre Marc Bouchard, Nikita Filatov, and Sam Gagner. For every Claude Giroux, there's a tonne of undersized former CHL 100-point guys who never made it past the AHL level. All one has to do is look at the past 10 seasons and scan the 100-point scorers in each CHL league and see where the vast majority of them are today.
That's my issue with the "exception to the rule" argument. Because while you are correct in what you wrote, the issue is it can be applied to any prospect type.
Bottom line, Crouse currently looks like he could be a similar type of player at the NHL level as the guys I mentioned prior. That could change. His development could plateau. He could stagnate. But based on how he looks right now, he projects favorably to the guys who did pan out. Which was my point all along. And yes, the odds are working against him. But no more so than any other type of prospect.
