News Article: Is this the start of the downward slope for the Sedins?

[God]

everybody should probably take a step back and realize point scoring around the league is down as a whole

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

The start of a downward slope? Jeez. That ship has long sailed. Statistically the prime of an NHL forwards career is from 26 to 29. And guess what, the last time the Sedins were over a point per game was, 29! Anybody denying that they aren’t declining players is fooling themselves. They’re going on 34 years old (prior to the start of next season). There are typically something like 30 players in the entire NHL older than 35 years of age. So yeah, this is the age where the majority of players go into STEEP decline.

That said, those who cite Torts and injuries (which, by the way, also a product of age), as reasons why they had bad years, aren’t totally offbase either. I think they will probably have a better year than they did last year. But I have my doubts they’ll ever be point per game players again. It’s just unlikely that they regain that form at age 34 or 35. I’d say the most we can hope for are a couple of 70 point players. Which is pretty damn good. In two years though, I think you’ll probably be looking at 50 to 60 point guys. That’s just what happens at 36+ years old.

While not PPG, both Sedins scored 35 points in 41 games last season, when we were doing well. The fact Daniel was posting those numbers flies directly in the face of all this rhetorically he is finished as an impact player. We will find out just what effect Torts had, but I suspect it was more than many people realize.

 

[Alflives*]

While not PPG, both Sedins scored 35 points in 41 games last season, when we were doing well. The fact Daniel was posting those numbers flies directly in the face of all this rhetorically he is finished as an impact player. We will find out just what effect Torts had, but I suspect it was more than many people realize.

Hope you're right, because unless Daniel is putting points, there is little else he offers on the ice. Our captain does a lot of other things out there, so if he drops some in numbers, he can help in those other things.

 

[y2kcanucks]

While not PPG, both Sedins scored 35 points in 41 games last season, when we were doing well. The fact Daniel was posting those numbers flies directly in the face of all this rhetorically he is finished as an impact player. We will find out just what effect Torts had, but I suspect it was more than many people realize.

You keep saying this and I keep responding that it doesn't matter what they did in the first 41 games. If you want to arbitrarily change your time period, let's break that down even further. In the first 15 games, for example, Henrik was slightly above a PPG. Then Henrik proceeded to score 17 points over his next 26 games, for a 0.65PPG average. Daniel scored a PPG in October, and then scored 20 points in 26 games in November/December (0.77PPG)

You can try to hide that fact all you want but that doesn't change anything, they simply weren't very good last year. They had a great October (to the levels that most people think they can still play over a full season...I'm not one of those people) and they weren't close to what we need them to be over the rest of the season.

 

[Fat Tony]

everybody should probably take a step back and realize point scoring around the league is down as a whole

League-wide, offense was the highest it's been since 2012. The Canucks have decreased each season in that time.

 

[denkiteki]

No doubt they are past their primes but last year was likely an off year for them so they'll likely have a bounce back year. They won't be leading the league in scoring (at least not likely) but should still be solid PPG players.

Basically they are over the hill but not a very steep downward slope and for the most part, the slope might be a straight line (as in i doubt their production will drop far from PPG pace for the next few years). If nothing else, considering the contract MG signed them to, we better hope they still produce close to a PPG pace, otherwise we' have a few long years ahead of us...

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

You keep saying this and I keep responding that it doesn't matter what they did in the first 41 games. If you want to arbitrarily change your time period, let's break that down even further. In the first 15 games, for example, Henrik was slightly above a PPG. Then Henrik proceeded to score 17 points over his next 26 games, for a 0.65PPG average. Daniel scored a PPG in October, and then scored 20 points in 26 games in November/December (0.77PPG)

You can try to hide that fact all you want but that doesn't change anything, they simply weren't very good last year. They had a great October (to the levels that most people think they can still play over a full season...I'm not one of those people) and they weren't close to what we need them to be over the rest of the season.

I never said they were necessarily good, just better than some have insinuated. What those stats demonstrate is a trend the entire team struggled with. After Christmas we went from mid-tier playoff contender to putrid and everyone looked utterly exhausted - a testament numerous Ranger fans said would happen. In fact, one of the biggest criticizes to Torts as a coach is his tendency to wear down his players be over utilizing them. The Sedins and Kesler played more minutes than they ever had in their respective careers.

Your averages correlate with a normal cooling off period after a hot start. It is rather uncommon players score at essentially a PPG pace for half the season than completely fall off a cliff for the second half. This is not Toronto's season we're talking about.

While 80+ points is likely behind them at this stretch, I certainly believe both can net more than the 50 points you estimate they'll reach.

 

[Wilch]

Typically forwards peak between 26~29.

But I do question this average, as more often than not, we'll see players with poor durability due to how physically demanding NHL hockey is. Plenty of players either develop chronic injuries or get knocked out by career ending injuries well before they're 30.

Another thing to consider is that there are also plenty of players who rely heavily on their physical tools to excel in this league; and they typically see a sharp decline once they're past their physical prime.

While the Sedins are indeed declining, I don't think it's fair to claim they're declining sharply, as they've been durable (Henrik in particular) and are players who do not rely on speed and power to create offense. They are the type of players who will have longevity to their careers, and will decline at a relatively slower rate compared to other players.

If they don't get knocked down from a cheap shot and stay relatively healthy, scoring at a 70-80 point pace is not out of the question for them.

 

[God]

League-wide, offense was the highest it's been since 2012. The Canucks have decreased each season in that time.

for individual players it isn't

teams are more reliant on depth for scoring than their top lines

 

[Fat Tony]

for individual players it isn't

teams are more reliant on depth for scoring than their top lines

What on earth did you mean by "point scoring around the league is down as a whole", then? And do you not count depth players as individuals?

 

[Royal Canuck]

This slope started a year ago if you ask me.

 

[Verviticus]

I just don't get how you can understand how good their possession numbers were in one sentence… and then call him a shell of himself in the other sentence. There is so much bias in how you're looking at those numbers… I'm trying to find out where it comes from. Shooting percentage is a variable year to year for everyone.

burrows looks like burrows but hes not getting results, daniel doesnt look like daniel sedin. when daniel got results, he still doesn't look like daniel sedin.

they both had a terrible year in terms of boxcar stats. i would put money on burrows being more likely to recover (to full) than daniel. theres obviously a reality where daniel does and burrows doesnt, and a reality where they both recover, but i think the most likely conclusion is that daniel isn't going to get back to where he was three years ago relative to henrik

accusing someone of racism is a pretty ****** way to say "i dont understand why a and not b"

 

[wholesickcrew]

What on earth did you mean by "point scoring around the league is down as a whole", then? And do you not count depth players as individuals?

It's pretty clear that he meant upper-end scoring by individuals is down...

 

[Hardyvan123]

everybody should probably take a step back and realize point scoring around the league is down as a whole

sure it is but here is a set of numbers (Hank's adjusted point totals)

81
82
84
119
101
90
85
55

Seems to be a decline pretty plain and simple there isn't it?

some people just have a hard time admitting the truth and that all players age even their hometown favorites.

 

[Fat Tony]

It's pretty clear that he meant upper-end scoring by individuals is down...

It's pretty clear after he moved the goalpost (while again providing no backing). He said "point scoring around the league is down as a whole." If you can read that as meaning "upper-end scoring" and not the league "as a whole", then your mind-reading is better than mine.

 

[Verviticus]

in a discussion about sedins i think its reasonable to assume he meant "the subset of players that include the sedins with context to the argument hes making" which i inferred as 'scoring by stars'

 

[Fat Tony]

More mind-reading.

In 2012, the Sedins were top 30 in league scoring. Last season, they didn't crack the top 90. That bucks any kind of trend one cares to bring up, league-wide or among "top scorers".

 

[DennisReynolds]

Here's a list of players that had >0.9 PPG seasons at the age of 29 or higher after the lockout to see more comparable players such as the Sedins. At least, I thought this was a fair way to find similar players to the Sedins.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

burrows looks like burrows but hes not getting results, daniel doesnt look like daniel sedin. when daniel got results, he still doesn't look like daniel sedin.

they both had a terrible year in terms of boxcar stats. i would put money on burrows being more likely to recover (to full) than daniel. theres obviously a reality where daniel does and burrows doesnt, and a reality where they both recover, but i think the most likely conclusion is that daniel isn't going to get back to where he was three years ago relative to henrik

accusing someone of racism is a pretty ****** way to say "i dont understand why a and not b"

Im late to this so sorry if its been covered, but...

last season Burrows was asked to play like Burrows, and so he looked like Burrows. Daniel was asked to play like Burrows, and looked like mold... (The fact he produced better then Burrows means something?) Also Henrik was asked to play like (Toews?) and did ok but not good... But both guys bit off more then they could chew, and will be honest enough to say that the experiment failed, and get back to playing they were successful (with a better winger fingers crossed)

we also do not have all the info on the Sedins last season

 

[Verviticus]

More mind-reading.

i think it was a pretty trivial inference

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

No secret they aren't 100+ points anymore but I'd like to see anyone take the Tortorella year and try and sell me on that the Sedins are 50 point players now.

Because that is not true.

 

[Scurr]

burrows looks like burrows but hes not getting results, daniel doesnt look like daniel sedin. when daniel got results, he still doesn't look like daniel sedin.

they both had a terrible year in terms of boxcar stats. i would put money on burrows being more likely to recover (to full) than daniel. theres obviously a reality where daniel does and burrows doesnt, and a reality where they both recover, but i think the most likely conclusion is that daniel isn't going to get back to where he was three years ago relative to henrik

accusing someone of racism is a pretty ****** way to say "i dont understand why a and not b"

So you think Burrows is more likely to score 30 then Daniel? I'll take that bet.

I didn't accuse you of anything, I asked you a question. I still think that argument is very, very weak.

 

[turkulad]

No secret they aren't 100+ points anymore but I'd like to see anyone take the Tortorella year and try and sell me on that the Sedins are 50 point players now.

Because that is not true.

QFT. Also, I do think Daniel's slope has been more steep and that's why it'd be beneficial for the team to start playing in separate lines on even strength. Henrik can carry two players on his back if the chemistry clicks (see: Burrows, Jensen) while Daniel should be installed to the second line with Bonino and Vrbata/Kassian.

 

[wholesickcrew]

It's pretty clear after he moved the goalpost (while again providing no backing). He said "point scoring around the league is down as a whole." If you can read that as meaning "upper-end scoring" and not the league "as a whole", then your mind-reading is better than mine.

He clarified in a later post what he meant, and yet you insist on sticking to the original post arguing semantics and ignoring context. Have fun with that.

 

[Fat Tony]

He clarified in a later post what he meant, and yet you insist on sticking to the original post arguing semantics and ignoring context. Have fun with that.

....

In 2012, the Sedins were top 30 in league scoring. Last season, they didn't crack the top 90. That bucks any kind of trend one cares to bring up, league-wide or among "top scorers".