Is the Jets Development side broken?

[Mud Turtle]

I was looking through the recent Jets draft picks as well as the last couple Thrashers years to see how the "future stars" had turned out. It's not a pretty sight.

We've drafted some incredibly talented players and one pattern seems to stick out... so many of these players started very strong in their first year, showed flashed of brilliance, and then either stalled in their development, or in many cases regressed.

Of course it's too early to tell on some of the recent players, but see if you agree with me that the following players flashed their talent early and then somehow just lost it to varying degrees.

Evander Kane
Zach Bogosian
Zach Redmond
Paul Postma
Adam Lowry
Alexander Burmistrov
Jacob Trouba

That's a pretty big list of players that we had very high hopes for who never really developed further and never reached what we expected after their early success.

Then you have players like the following who we've already had to dramatically lower our expectations of after stalling out even before they hit the NHL...

Scott Kosmachuk
Carl Klingberg
Patrice Cormier
Josh Morrissey

The good news is there are a couple players that we've drafted who seem to have bucked the trend so far and followed the proper development curve. Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck.

While it's way too early to tell about Nikolaj Ehlers, he also looked like a world class talent when he broke onto the scene but his game has changed lately. (Yes I know, tiny sample). But it begs the question...Are the Jets trying to fit players into a system where their natural talents aren't being developed properly?

This is a worrying long-term trend and I think the Jets need to really take a hard look at their development strategy.

Click to read more...

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I think it's way too early to make a blanket statement about the future of the Jets prospects, and I think this thread is an over-reaction based on the current situation with the Jets.

If the Jets had one 2 or 3 of the 5 they've lost, would we be talking about this?

 

[QuietContrarian]

I think that 7-0 loss has led to a few overreactions..

 

[Mud Turtle]

I think it's way too early to make a blanket statement about the future of the Jets prospects, and I think this thread is an over-reaction based on the current situation with the Jets.

If the Jets had one 2 or 3 of the 5 they've lost, would we be talking about this?

I'm not basing it on team results at all. It's based on individual results and precipitated by the play of Jets players such as Trouba, Lowry, Burmistrov, as well as AHL prospects like Morrissey and Kosmachuk.

I don't think anyone can argue that we're not disappointed with the play of these players.

Just asking the question...is what we're seeing early on in these players' careers just a continuation of what we've seen other years in this organization?

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I'm not basing it on team results at all. It's based on individual results and precipitated by the play of Jets players such as Trouba, Lowry, Burmistrov, as well as AHL prospects like Morrissey and Kosmachuk.

I don't think anyone can argue that we're not disappointed with the play of these players.

Just asking the question...is what we're seeing early on in these players' careers just a continuation of what we've seen other years in this organization?

Sure we can.

Trouba and Lowry had very good years last year. The team is going through a tough period, where almost all players look poor / the systems seem to not be working.

Do we discount Lowry and Trouba's last year as an anomaly?

Morrissey is a notoriously slow starter - he appears to be turning things around in the AHL again. He also had a very good run in the playoffs a couple of years ago with the IceCaps. Do we discount that?

Etc.

I do believe this is an over-reaction to a general problem with the parent clubs most recent woes. I'm more concerned with what I'm seeing in the Jets play than I am any of our prospects or the development of such - they're good prospects.

 

[KingBogo]

I was looking through the recent Jets draft picks as well as the last couple Thrashers years to see how the "future stars" had turned out. It's not a pretty sight.

We've drafted some incredibly talented players and one pattern seems to stick out... so many of these players started very strong in their first year, showed flashed of brilliance, and then either stalled in their development, or in many cases regressed.

Of course it's too early to tell on some of the recent players, but see if you agree with me that the following players flashed their talent early and then somehow just lost it to varying degrees.

Evander Kane
Zach Bogosian
Zach Redmond
Paul Postma
Adam Lowry
Alexander Burmistrov
Jacob Trouba

That's a pretty big list of players that we had very high hopes for who never really developed further and never reached what we expected after their early success.

Then you have players like the following who we've already had to dramatically lower our expectations of after stalling out even before they hit the NHL...

Scott Kosmachuk
Carl Klingberg
Patrice Cormier
Josh Morrissey

The good news is there are a couple players that we've drafted who seem to have bucked the trend so far and followed the proper development curve. Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck.

While it's way too early to tell about Nikolaj Ehlers, he also looked like a world class talent when he broke onto the scene but his game has changed lately. (Yes I know, tiny sample). But it begs the question...Are the Jets trying to fit players into a system where their natural talents aren't being developed properly?

This is a worrying long-term trend and I think the Jets need to really take a hard look at their development strategy.

Actually the Jets have a pretty lengthy list of picks that have played some role at the NHL level. Most teams have more misses than that. I'd pin it more on unreasonable expectations. We have yet to draft a true star, which hurts. I'm hopeful with Ehlers but he is just getting his feet wet.

 

[Channelcat]

Actually the Jets have a pretty lengthy list of picks that have played some role at the NHL level. Most teams have more misses than that. I'd pin it more on unreasonable expectations. We have yet to draft a true star, which hurts. I'm hopeful with Ehlers but he is just getting his feet wet.

That is 100% what it is.

 

[Sweech]

Still too early and it would seem like the expectations are too high.

 

[koth]

This is a ridiculous thread. It's like you're expecting every single draft pick to be an elite level talent and if they don't, it's a disappointment and dagnamit someone has to be held responsible!

What were you really expecting from Redmond and Postma? They were both drafted in the 7th round! Redmond isn't even good enough to play on the Avs on a full time basis. I'd say both are right about where they should be. The fact that defencemen drafted in the 7th round have even stuck around an NHL roster for a few seasons is an accomplishment in itself.

Adam Lowry is in his SECOND SEASON! Give him a ****ing break before pulling the plug.

Klingberg and Cormier have never been good enough to play in the NHL, so where did they flash their NHL-level talent exactly? Both were Thrashers draft picks.

Josh Morrissey was the top defenceman at the World Junior Championship last season. He's a 20 year old D.

These melodramatic threads are so annoying.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

The whole draft and develop thing is always way overblown and our abilities way overstated. News flash. Every team does it. Every team has some successes and some failures. I don't see any evidence that we are significantly better or worse than middle of the pack here.

The bigger issue we have is getting something back for true NHL assets that leave for whatever reason. That's where we fail badly. It is really showing this year.

 

[JC Numminen]

I think that 7-0 loss has led to a few overreactions..

Oh yeah.

This team was bound to go on a four game slide at some point, right? Happens to every team. It's just because there have been a few lopsided games. And after this huge slide? They are only 1 point back of the playoffs. I'm not really worried yet.

As for the thread question, it is to early. But it was also unrealistic for us to think they would all turn out to be world beaters. Everyone loves Trouba but then hits a slump? He will be fine.

Give it time.

 

[Whileee]

The whole draft and develop thing is always way overblown and our abilities way overstated. News flash. Every team does it. Every team has some successes and some failures. I don't see any evidence that we are significantly better or worse than middle of the pack here.

The bigger issue we have is getting something back for true NHL assets that leave for whatever reason. That's where we fail badly. It is really showing this year.

Frolik...

Maybe Hainsey...

Which other "true NHL assets" have left the Jets without compensation?

(Remember that this doesn't count players like Stemp and Tlusty who were acquired at the trade deadline as UFA rentals, and really had no asset value when the season was over).

I would have been happy for them to trade Frolik last season before the trade deadline, though it probably would have killed their playoff chances.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I was looking through the recent Jets draft picks as well as the last couple Thrashers years to see how the "future stars" had turned out. It's not a pretty sight.

We've drafted some incredibly talented players and one pattern seems to stick out... so many of these players started very strong in their first year, showed flashed of brilliance, and then either stalled in their development, or in many cases regressed.

Of course it's too early to tell on some of the recent players, but see if you agree with me that the following players flashed their talent early and then somehow just lost it to varying degrees.

Evander Kane
Zach Bogosian
Zach Redmond
Paul Postma
Adam Lowry
Alexander Burmistrov
Jacob Trouba

That's a pretty big list of players that we had very high hopes for who never really developed further and never reached what we expected after their early success.

Then you have players like the following who we've already had to dramatically lower our expectations of after stalling out even before they hit the NHL...

Scott Kosmachuk
Carl Klingberg
Patrice Cormier
Josh Morrissey

The good news is there are a couple players that we've drafted who seem to have bucked the trend so far and followed the proper development curve. Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck.

While it's way too early to tell about Nikolaj Ehlers, he also looked like a world class talent when he broke onto the scene but his game has changed lately. (Yes I know, tiny sample). But it begs the question...Are the Jets trying to fit players into a system where their natural talents aren't being developed properly?

This is a worrying long-term trend and I think the Jets need to really take a hard look at their development strategy.

You are making something out of nothing. What we see in your lists is a perfectly normal distribution of outcomes. If you are being disappointed by some of the results it may be that your expectations were too high.

Evander Kane - Rushed to the NHL by the Thrashers & he is EK9
Zach Bogosian - Rushed to the NHL, injury problems, has been OK
Zach Redmond - 7th rd pick, has exceeded expectations
Paul Postma - 7th rd pick, has exceeded expectations
Adam Lowry - 3rd round pick, has exceeded expectations, doing fine
Alexander Burmistrov - bad pick, rushed to NHL
Jacob Trouba - going through a rough patch

Scott Kosmachuk - 3rd round pick, on track
Carl Klingberg - 2nd rd bust, we expect some of those
Patrice Cormier - 2nd rd bust, we expect some of those
Josh Morrissey - Developing on track

Klingberg, Cormier, Sutter, Petan, Lemieux, we have done very poorly with 2nd round picks. Now there is a disturbing trend, if Petan & Lemieux don't work out. Maybe Chevy should just trade them all away.

 

[Whileee]

You are making something out of nothing. What we see in your lists is a perfectly normal distribution of outcomes. If you are being disappointed by some of the results it may be that your expectations were too high.

Evander Kane - Rushed to the NHL by the Thrashers & he is EK9
Zach Bogosian - Rushed to the NHL, injury problems, has been OK
Zach Redmond - 7th rd pick, has exceeded expectations
Paul Postma - 7th rd pick, has exceeded expectations
Adam Lowry - 3rd round pick, has exceeded expectations, doing fine
Alexander Burmistrov - bad pick, rushed to NHL
Jacob Trouba - going through a rough patch

Scott Kosmachuk - 3rd round pick, on track
Carl Klingberg - 2nd rd bust, we expect some of those
Patrice Cormier - 2nd rd bust, we expect some of those
Josh Morrissey - Developing on track

Klingberg, Cormier, Sutter, Petan, Lemieux, we have done very poorly with 2nd round picks. Now there is a disturbing trend, if Petan & Lemieux don't work out. Maybe Chevy should just trade them all away.

Klingberg and Cormier were Thrashers picks. Lemieux was picked by the Sabres.

Comrie looks like a decent 2nd rounder.

Jets 2.0 2nd round picks:

Sutter (epic failure... scout most responsible for this pick should be gone)
Petan (still like this pick... has a chance to contribute in the NHL)
Comrie (still on track to get a shot in the NHL... fine pick at the end of the 2nd)
Harkins (jury still out)

 

[scelaton]

Klingberg, Cormier, Sutter, Petan, Lemieux, we have done very poorly with 2nd round picks. Now there is a disturbing trend, if Petan & Lemieux don't work out. Maybe Chevy should just trade them all away.

Remember Setoguchi? We can't even trade them away successfully!

 

[BigZ65]

I don't believe the development side is broken. I believe that the Jets are over-reliant and too willing to give a raw rookie a roster spot without them earning it. It's kind of funny too because I distinctly recall people from this management group complaining about the Atlanta group rushing prospects.

There are obviously exceptions (8 & 55 are a couple), but the vast majority of prospects need some time in the AHL. The best "draft and develop" team in the last 3 decades follows that model. I wish we would more. And if a guy like Petan came in gangbusters and actually forced a tough decision, awesome, but saying thanks, but no thanks to any legitimate 15-16 NHLers to hold a roster spot for him was a huge mistake in this realm.

The whole construction of the roster is a mistake obviously. There's no competition at forward. You can't sit a Burmistrov or Lowry for a game when they are having major struggles for weeks. There's nobody behind them.

 

[Whileee]

I don't believe the development side is broken. I believe that the Jets are over-reliant and too willing to give a raw rookie a roster spot without them earning it. It's kind of funny too because I distinctly recall people from this management group complaining about the Atlanta group rushing prospects.

There are obviously exceptions (8 & 55 are a couple), but the vast majority of prospects need some time in the AHL. The best "draft and develop" team in the last 3 decades follows that model. I wish we would more. And if a guy like Petan came in gangbusters and actually forced a tough decision, awesome, but saying thanks, but no thanks to any legitimate 15-16 NHLers to hold a roster spot for him was a huge mistake in this realm.

The whole construction of the roster is a mistake obviously. There's no competition at forward. You can't sit a Burmistrov or Lowry for a game when they are having major struggles for weeks. There's nobody behind them.

Do you mean the Red Wings?

They hit home runs with Datsyuk and Zetterberg and Kronwall, but that was 15 and more years ago that they were drafted. They've carried that franchise for the past decade. The Red Wings haven't drafted and developed a top-end defenseman since Kronwall, 15 years ago (unless you're a big fan of Quincey or Kindl).

Over the past couple of years, it's easy to argue that the Jets are the better team.

 

[BigZ65]

Do you mean the Red Wings?

They hit home runs with Datsyuk and Zetterberg and Kronwall, but that was 15 and more years ago that they were drafted. They've carried that franchise for the past decade. The Red Wings haven't drafted and developed a top-end defenseman since Kronwall, 15 years ago (unless you're a big fan of Quincey or Kindl).

Over the past couple of years, it's easy to argue that the Jets are the better team.

They are DEEP though, and 99% of that is homegrown. We're happy about Lowry and they have a dozen of those guys, some of them can score too. You could argue objectively that the Jets haven't drafted and developed a top-end defenseman since Enstrom with Trouba at a crossroads.

Makes me shudder a bit to think about where our franchise would be if Chicago didn't have to dump salary a couple times.

 

[alchemyindex]

I haven't lost any faith in Morrissey.

 

[Whileee]

They are DEEP though, and 99% of that is homegrown. We're happy about Lowry and they have a dozen of those guys, some of them can score too. You could argue objectively that the Jets haven't drafted and developed a top-end defenseman since Enstrom with Trouba at a crossroads.

Makes me shudder a bit to think about where our franchise would be if Chicago didn't have to dump salary a couple times.

They are deep with 3rd liners, but not so much with high end talent or on D.

If Larkin wasn't such a star prospect, they'd look pretty weak on the youth front, and they can't take any credit for "developing" him - he spent 1 year with Red Berenson and then straight to the NHL roster.

 

[Say What]

WOW!!

We're losing control of this 'Big Rig' careening down an icy road. We're going sideways (7-0 spanking), we're gripping the wheel tight (calling for changes) and we're scared of the impending doom (crashing to 'lotto' levels).

It's time to 'pump' the brakes.......regain some control (rational thinking) and steer out of this avoidable disaster (season is still young). Just PUMP THE BRAKES.....it works!!

No need to put our foot through the floor boards (panic) and send ourselves spinning into sure disaster (bad trades, firings and demotions).

Breathe in.....Breathe out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Klingberg and Cormier were Thrashers picks. Lemieux was picked by the Sabres.

Comrie looks like a decent 2nd rounder.

Jets 2.0 2nd round picks:

Sutter (epic failure... scout most responsible for this pick should be gone)
Petan (still like this pick... has a chance to contribute in the NHL)
Comrie (still on track to get a shot in the NHL... fine pick at the end of the 2nd)
Harkins (jury still out)

Your taking that facetious comment too seriously. We don't have a facetious emoji. Sorry. Doesn't matter who drafted them for my facetious comment. Forgot about Comrie and Harkins and still happy with Petan.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't believe the development side is broken. I believe that the Jets are over-reliant and too willing to give a raw rookie a roster spot without them earning it. It's kind of funny too because I distinctly recall people from this management group complaining about the Atlanta group rushing prospects.

There are obviously exceptions (8 & 55 are a couple), but the vast majority of prospects need some time in the AHL. The best "draft and develop" team in the last 3 decades follows that model. I wish we would more. And if a guy like Petan came in gangbusters and actually forced a tough decision, awesome, but saying thanks, but no thanks to any legitimate 15-16 NHLers to hold a roster spot for him was a huge mistake in this realm.

The whole construction of the roster is a mistake obviously. There's no competition at forward. You can't sit a Burmistrov or Lowry for a game when they are having major struggles for weeks. There's nobody behind them.

You are right there. The 13 and 14th men should be players trying to get a starting job not specialists. Especially if their speciality is obsolete.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Deleted the off-topic "we lost these players for nothing" tangent that every thread seems to devolve into.

 

[WaveRaven]

Well if your gifting jobs to prospects then I think there are issues.