Blue Jays Discussion: Is That LaCava or AA? Estrada re-signs (2/26M)

[Discoverer]

That's a lot of value especially when one considers Leonys Martin (who's 2013 and 2014 are quite comparable with Pillar's 2015) fetched a decent (not great) reliever.

If Pillar follows up this season with a replacement-level 2016 where he's among the worst offensive players in baseball, his value would take a major hit too. He also has two additional years of control at league minimum.

 

[Canada4Gold]

That's a lot of value especially when one considers Leonys Martin (who's 2013 and 2014 are quite comparable with Pillar's 2015) fetched a decent (not great) reliever.

If a Hendricks or McHugh for Pillar based trade was offered to me, I'd scream yes into the phone, block the opposing GM's number so he couldn't change his mind, send someone to pick up Pillar is southern California and have him delivered to the doorstep of Wrigley/MM park.

I think if Pillar came out next year and had a 0.5 fWAR season his value would diminish. Martin just had a 50 wRC+ season.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I disagree wholeheartedly with your valuations, but to each their own.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I disagree wholeheartedly with your valuations, but to each their own.

you don't think if Pillar came out next year with a 0.5 fWAR and a 50 wRC+ that he'd have less value than he has now?

I mean I'm not saying he has lots of value now, but he'd have 1 less year on control, 1 less year of pre-arb, and basically not even be starters level(which is what we thought he was entering last year, a 4th outfielder).

If you think Pillar has the value of someone who just came off that bad of a season then I think you're undervaluing him.

Both of Martin's 2 years were both slightly worse than Pillar across the board as well. Not a great difference, but pretty much a little bit worse in every category except walks, and in turn OBP. Since he repeated it twice would could call them equal had Martin been traded last offseason before he had such a horrible year.

 

[Eyedea]

That's a lot of value especially when one considers Leonys Martin (who's 2013 and 2014 are quite comparable with Pillar's 2015) fetched a decent (not great) reliever.

If a Hendricks or McHugh for Pillar based trade was offered to me, I'd scream yes into the phone, block the opposing GM's number so he couldn't change his mind, send someone to pick up Pillar is southern California and have him delivered to the doorstep of Wrigley/MM park.

Well as the others said, Leonys Martin completely destroyed his value this season. He also refused to go to instructs for rehab and basically abandoned the organization. He's also expected to command close to 4M in arbitration whereas Pillar is getting league min.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

you don't think if Pillar came out next year with a 0.5 fWAR and a 50 wRC+ that he'd have less value than he has now?

I mean I'm not saying he has lots of value now, but he'd have 1 less year on control, 1 less year of pre-arb, and basically not even be starters level(which is what we thought he was entering last year, a 4th outfielder).

If you think Pillar has the value of someone who just came off that bad of a season then I think you're undervaluing him.

I never said he was worth a reliever, my valuation was a Hellickson level starter in trade value.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Well as the others said, Leonys Martin completely destroyed his value this season. He also refused to go to instructs for rehab and basically abandoned the organization. He's also expected to command close to 4M in arbitration whereas Pillar is getting league min.

Ok. Noted.

If you could, explain how a pair (using Hendricks and McHugh) of starters with 4 and 5 years of control left are hypothetically acquired with a CF who's perceived value relies so heavily on defensive metrics.

Kevin is tangibly very clearly good defensively, but I can't for the life of me remember a starter of that calibre and value being traded for such a player.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I never said he was worth a reliever, my valuation was a Hellickson level starter in trade value.

you compared him to Martin who destroyed his value this past year with a brutal season. Had Martin been traded for a reliever last offseason you would have had a point. However that trade is pretty meaningless now since Martin destroyed his value.

a ~6 million 1 year pitcher who hasn't had an ERA better than 4.52 in the past 3 years and best FIP for a full season in his career is 4.22. Yeah I'll take the CF who's cheap and under control for 5 years with elite defense and borderline offense, and I'd take said player as a bench player before I'd take Hellickson.

 

[Discoverer]

I never said he was worth a reliever, my valuation was a Hellickson level starter in trade value.

Maybe you're just overvaluing Hellickson? He's not very good, he's relatively expensive, and he's under control for one year.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Maybe you're just overvaluing Hellickson? He's not very good, he's relatively expensive, and he's under control for one year.

exactly, saying I wouldn't take him for free would probably be an unfair statement, especially since I haven't followed him much for the past couple years, but I'm not sure I'd take him free. I probably should, but only because of the lack of starters we have.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

you compared him to Martin who destroyed his value this past year with a brutal season. Had Martin been traded for a reliever last offseason you would have had a point. However that trade is pretty meaningless now since Martin destroyed his value.

a ~6 million 1 year pitcher who hasn't had an ERA better than 4.52 in the past 3 years and best FIP for a full season in his career is 4.22. Yeah I'll take the CF who's cheap and under control for 5 years with elite defense and borderline offense, and I'd take said player as a bench player before I'd take Hellickson.

This whole thing started because I said I'd rather keep Kevin because of what he provides, the team control, and how affordable he is. The idea of a filling a starting position with a pre-arb player holds more value than the marginal starter he'd return in trade.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Maybe you're just overvaluing Hellickson? He's not very good, he's relatively expensive, and he's under control for one year.

No, I'm well aware Jeremy Hellickson is a #5 starter, at best. Lacks team control, and have a ballpark figure of what he'll receive in arb.

My valuation of him is quite sound. Where I and the three of you differ is Kevin Pillar's value.

 

[Discoverer]

No, I'm well aware Jeremy Hellickson is a #5 starter, at best. Lacks team control, and have a ballpark figure of what he'll receive in arb.

My valuation of him is quite sound. Where I and the three of you differ is Kevin Pillar's value.

I don't think Pillar's value is all that high, which is why I don't see the point in trading him. But, knowing all those things about Hellickson, doesn't it seem like his value sits somewhere around zero? Unless you think more highly of him, I don't see how that compares to Pillar.