Discussion in 'Montreal Canadiens' started by Domi a favor, Feb 14, 2013.
That's simply not true. He had a lot of very nice snipes.
I'd be interested to see some underlying metrics for Max this year. He's consistently a player who drives play to the offensive end of the ice. I don't think much has changed in that regard.
A bit of a slow start, a bit snake bitten, a bit hurt. With patches work ethic I give him the benefit of the doubt. No one trains harder. Between him and Subban I think they put too much work in to fail imo.
He'll be back, patches deserves our patience.
I am cutting Max slack due to his surgery. I think he will rebound. Unlike Cole who was enjoying family time and old in the tooth, Max is still hungry.
Absolutely not weak, just not elite like most people here seem to think. He's a good top 6 LW, can play 1st line on MANY teams, but he's not Iginla.
Did anyone say he was?
He's playing a very atypical style of game for him, somewhat similar to before he got called up the second time and dominated into pwfd extraordinaire. Only diff is that expectations are wayyyyy higher now and that he does have the skills like his skating, but is not using the other ones very well. (Driving to the net, pretty good shot, good reading of a play, decent hands.)
I am very disappointed with him so far, but the onus is on him. Seriously, no excuses. He has a contract, he needs to live up to it cuz we need the goals and wins, particularly this upcoming week.
He's not the quality shots generating machine he was last season. I don't think that's debatable.
Max has been OK. He hasn't been good, but he hasn't been horrible either.
When he was drafted he said he modeled his game after Jed Ortmeyer...
Let's hope he's still not modeling his game after Jed Ortmeyer.
Maybe Bob Gainey should go for a walk with him to get him to turn his game around?
Is underlying numbers are still terrific. He consistently drives puck possession and creates chances at a tremdous rate. His line hasn't created as much as it did last year but is also giving up far less so it comes out about equal.
Concern about his lack of goals is the same as Kessel. He's well positioned to start scoring in bunches when he inevitably starts hitting the back of the net again. Pacioretty is rarely going to get no goals on 28 shots. He should be at about 3 right now but the mathamatics of goal scoring favour random streaks being the norm.
^^That’s^^ roughly how I see it; the panic button is light-years away.
That said, he does look weak in his 1 vs 1 battles and he often shoot right in the goalie’s chest. Also, he seems to have lost his "killer instinct" when he enters the slot.
Even though he didn;t have any goals pre-surgery, he was playing well. Post surgery has been a bit concerning, but I'm sure he will rebound.
Patches and Cole both are shying away from driving to the net this year. Cole has started to do it recently, and Patches needs to do the same. Their size, and powerful skating is what makes their line dynamic. That threat also opens up other options for them.
Its probably just a mental block that will be lifted once some good things start to happen for him.
Shooting into the chest and killer instinct are exactly the same things we always see/hear about for a good goal scorer going through a temporary slump. Those things are temporary, its the ability to create chances that is king.
About lacking killer instinct, shooting at the goalie's chest, timing etc. I think a lot of that is confidence, and nothing creates confidence like success. I'm fairly certain that when one goes in many more will follow. You see that a lot with goal scorers.
I do not think Pacioretty's problem is shooting in the chest. It's creating chances and generating shots that is. He's not generating quality shots and chances like he was the last year and a half.
Last year after 9 games he had 39 shots. And IMO, there was also a much higher percentage of his shots which were quality ones and harder to save.
Advanced stats are useful, but in this case they are not telling the whole truth. Guys like Gionta and Gomez look good with advanced stats but all Gionta does is shoot from everywhere with no screen, and all Gomez does is skate himself into corners.
I'm not just talking shots here, scoring chances are also something that gets tracked (see here http://enattendantlesnordiques.blogspot.ca/) and Pacioretty is doing fantastic there as well. His chances for are down from last year by quite a bit but his chances against are down by way morelot. I honestly think you'd remember the quality of his chances a lot better if a couple of his ones went in.
The advanced numbers on Gionta will tell you that he's a terrific ES player that tends to outshoot his opennents. Low and behold, he also consistently has a positive goal differential, has solid ES point totals (especially on goals, his closest comparable in ES goal scoring is a little known winger called Zetterberg), and the best goal differential of any major forward in the Habs current roster over the previous 3 seasons.
the guy had a career year because the team was dead last. The whole line got a lot of points after guys like Cammalleri & Kostitsyn left.
We only had these guys for production...
Now we got other players that can produce so its gonna be harder for them. Desharnais will get exposed and Pacioretty might not live up to his contract.
So you're confirming that he's not generating chances and shots as he was last year. That's all I really said. You don't need advanced stats to tell you that, it's as plain as day.
Also, I don't care that chances against are down. That can be due to many things, things that might not have much to do with Pacioretty anyway. But even if it is because of Pacioretty, all this means is that he's playing better defensively. I haven't claimed otherwise.
Yes, the human mind tends to see patterns where there aren't, and tends to make up narratives to fit their own bias, etc. I'm well aware.
But some people are more adept than others at synthesis and have a good eye for evaluating performance. Not saying I'm one of them but it's annoying to see advanced stats gurus spit the same lines thinking no one can evaluate talent with the naked eye. These comebacks just feel so condescending to me. No, I'd not think differently if Pacioretty had 3 fluke goals right now. Or even if Pacioretty had sniped 3 beauties. He'd still not be generating as many shots, and as many scoring chances as he was in the last year and a half. He's not playing as well offensively. You say he has a better impact defensively ? Eh, maybe. I haven't seen it, but I'd be inclined to believe the stats there if you say that's where they point.
Bottom line is that advanced stats are a tool. You have to use that tool to help you make the difference between two close calls. Advanced stats help when it's time to determine which player is the best between two players who appear to be equal at first sight.
Ah yes, that is where advanced stats lie and that is why I brought up Gomez and Gionta. All the advanced stats gurus will tell you that both players are amazing puck possession players who have positive impacts on the game.
Gionta is not as good as these stats say however.
The problem with advanced stats is that the whole philosophy is entirely based on the concept that out-shooting the opposition means puck possession.
When you see Gomez skate through the zone and make the same predictable play every time, passing the puck back to Gionta who trails at the blue line, and Gionta who takes the same predictable 30 foot wrist shot... yeah they got a lot of shots on net and the opponent didn't but the play is dead there and a goal will seldom be scored that way. Gionta almost never scores when he does that. He scores when he goes to the net and gets rebounds or deflects a shot.
Gionta scores at a below 10% shooting percentage. Yeah he scores his 25 goals but really, how many opportunities are wasted for him to get his garbage shots on net all year ?
IMO, that's where advanced stats can lie. In most cases it's true that getting more shots on net typically means your team had the puck more and had more chances, but it's not ALWAYS true.
The whole concept of advanced stats is a bit flawed because the premise is only mostly true, not 100% true. And a lot of people just throw common sense to the wind and use advanced stats to let it shape their opinion regardless of what their eyes tell them.
It also makes hockey discussions impossible because inevitably they will bring up some condescending argument about how you are letting results or lack of results influence your opinion of their play.
He has been pretty bad all year even before the surgery. But he shouldn't even be playing right now. That's why I can't be too critical of him. He will get it going in the next week I am sure of it
His scoring slump is over... what a nice goal!
He looked so relieved! What’s the saying in English... a monkey off his back?
^^on the bench after his weird first goal of the season!^^
10 points in 11 games.. I'm not really worried. :
At least he is involved in 90% of his shifts in some sort of fashion, unlike that putz Cole.
Pacioretty can produce points and be relevant even without scoring/ playing well. That's usually a sign of a good player.
Was about to say this...
Even when slumping Patches will help the team win (unlike Cole) by putting up pts on the board.
10 pts in 11 games!
Turns out he just needed to start taking shots from the red line I guess?
He is taking less shots, I believe he's on a pace that has him taking 50 less shots than last year.
There was three ways Max scored goal in last year, being set up by teammates, garbage goals, or big snipes. He is shooting less than last year, and his linemates aren't playing as well either. It's normal to see him be affected.
But he still has 10pts in 11gp, so I have no problem being patient.
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