Is Henrik Lundqvist An HOFer?

[Michael Farkas]

Yeah, Price playing great in the first round was a direct result of Thomas' inability to be consistent, apparently.

Are you seriously trying to claim that the guy with a career 0.933 save percentage in the playoffs is a bad playoff goalie?

At 1st: Huh? Who is talking about Carey Price?

At 2nd: Did I try to claim that? I don't believe so. I'm just speaking of reputation. i.e. look at another post below mine, struggling to come up with why Lundqvist isn't any good in the playoffs but Thomas gets a free pass because he had one decent one. It's the career perception thing that I'm talking about it. You keep wanting to throw numbers at the problem to make it go away but it has nothing to do with that.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Of course you haven't, they aren't there yet. The cut-off is TWO seasons of note, not one. They're half way there!

Anytime before Julien basically. Including the decade or more that he wasn't good enough to play in the NHL.

Once again, neither Elliott nor Anderson has had a Vezina or even Vezina nominated season. So compared to what Thomas did twice, they stand at 0. Meaning they are 0% of the way there.

Lundqvist, with one Vezina season, is half way there. As I said earlier, I don't think Lundqvist is Hall ready at this moment. But I believe he will be if his career continues on a normal path. I don't think Thomas is Hall ready either, but that doesn't mean I don't think he was as good or better than Lundqvist up to this point.

As for Thomas not being good enough to play in the NHL, I'd say that had more to do with the way he was viewed as a goaltender. That being, the way you view him. He wasn't given a chance. When given the chance he seemed quite capable. I understand that he is an oddity in the way he plays the position, but he always seemed to get the job done, from college to Finland to the AHL to the NHL.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Once again, neither Elliott nor Anderson has had a Vezina or even Vezina nominated season. So compared to what Thomas did twice, they stand at 0. Meaning they are 0% of the way there.

Lundqvist, with one Vezina season, is half way there. As I said earlier, I don't think Lundqvist is Hall ready at this moment. But I believe he will be if his career continues on a normal path. I don't think Thomas is Hall ready either, but that doesn't mean I don't think he was as good or better than Lundqvist up to this point.

As for Thomas not being good enough to play in the NHL, I'd say that had more to do with the way he was viewed as a goaltender. That being, the way you view him. He wasn't given a chance. When given the chance he seemed quite capable. I understand that he is an oddity in the way he plays the position, but he always seemed to get the job done, from college to Finland to the AHL to the NHL.

I'm not really sure how Lundqvist can be viewed as having an inferior career to Thomas.

Thomas was drafted, left unsigned. He got invite(s) to training camps, wasn't deemed good enough. Was scouted by other clubs, deemed not good enough. Came into the NHL, wasn't good enough. Then Claude Julien came into the picture and all of a sudden he's amazing. And then he quit on his teammates.

I'm sure he did fine against low level competition. But it's not an accident or a mistake that he didn't play in the league for as long as he did and that his only NHL success is behind Julien/Chara.

 

[quoipourquoi]

I'm not really sure how Lundqvist can be viewed as having an inferior career to Thomas.

Because you put more stock in your personal evaluation of style than the actual successes of the goaltenders themselves, and rather than consider the points being made against your inflexible and narrow viewpoint, you seem content to repeat a cycle of describing Thomas' 2011 playoffs as "unremarkable" and growing increasingly confused as to why we don't agree with you.

Two days ago, you said there was no doubt who was better between the lockouts. Should I point you in the direction of the 27-man panel that agreed that there was doubt?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I'm not really sure how Lundqvist can be viewed as having an inferior career to Thomas.

Thomas was drafted, left unsigned. He got invite(s) to training camps, wasn't deemed good enough. Was scouted by other clubs, deemed not good enough. Came into the NHL, wasn't good enough. Then Claude Julien came into the picture and all of a sudden he's amazing. And then he quit on his teammates.

I'm sure he did fine against low level competition. But it's not an accident or a mistake that he didn't play in the league for as long as he did and that his only NHL success is behind Julien/Chara.

Lundqvist has played 1 more NHL season than Thomas.

He has accomplished less.

Just that simple.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Any comparison between Thomas and Lundqvist must obviously consider that Thomas didn't break into the league truly until he was 31. Lunqvist turned 31 a few months ago and has 8 very good NHL seasons under his belt (I'd grant Thomas 6 very good seasons). If Lundqvist has another very good 3-4 years he would easily have surpassed Thomas just on *extended* excellence.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Lundqvist has played 1 more NHL season than Thomas.

He has accomplished less.

Just that simple.

So it was that most recent season that he packed in 130 more games?

 

[Hardyvan123]

Will he last that long though Hv? The way the positions
played, prone to injury, crease crashing, bit iffy yes?

He is 31 next year and the Goalie position is much less prone to injury than say forwards or Dmen.

400 is a very very safe bet.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

So it was that most recent season that he packed in 130 more games?

Is my statement incorrect?

If not, what's your point?

 

[quoipourquoi]

So it was that most recent season that he packed in 130 more games?

We can give Lundqvist another 130 games, and it doesn't guarantee he'll win two save percentage titles, a Conn Smythe, or another Vezina/1st Team All-Star. And yes, those are bigger accomplishments than 15 extra GP each season.

Lundqvist will eventually have a better career than Tim Thomas, but let us wait until he accomplishes more than Thomas before we try to justify such claims with Games Played.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Because you put more stock in your personal evaluation of style than the actual successes of the goaltenders themselves, and rather than consider the points being made against your inflexible and narrow viewpoint, you seem content to repeat a cycle of describing Thomas' 2011 playoffs as "unremarkable" and growing increasingly confused as to why we don't agree with you.

Two days ago, you said there was no doubt who was better between the lockouts. Should I point you in the direction of the 27-man panel that agreed that there was doubt?

Negative. Mischaracterized. I'm just not led around by the [nose] by statistics that aren't keeping up with the changes of the game.

Obviously, not enough people have taken notice of the changes in the game yet. Thus, this little exchange. As these anomalistic spikes continue, maybe we'll continue to blissfully ignore them because they don't fit the "inflexible" and "narrow" general point of view.

I've said it a thousand times: Stats can follow the storyline, they don't create one.

 

[Canadiens1958]

The Henrik Lundqvist Storyline

The Henrik Lundqvist storyline reflects a solid NHL goalie with an eight year career, still in search of definition:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lundqhe01.html

The stats are very paradoxical. The SV% is identical for the RS and the PO yet the W/L is not, strong positive during the RS with a strong negative during the play-offs. The shutouts to GP ratio favours the playoffs. If some wish to interpret this as a roller coaster effort, combined with a .03 higher PO GAA, so be it.

If we are looking at a HHOF career then it is only fair to ask if the player is close to a complete package? If there are shortcomings then what are the consequences?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Negative. Mischaracterized. I'm just not led around by the [nose] by statistics that aren't keeping up with the changes of the game.

Obviously, not enough people have taken notice of the changes in the game yet. Thus, this little exchange. As these anomalistic spikes continue, maybe we'll continue to blissfully ignore them because they don't fit the "inflexible" and "narrow" general point of view.

I've said it a thousand times: Stats can follow the storyline, they don't create one.

So when exactly did these changes occur and why do they cause these spikes?

 

[Sonny Lamateena]

We can give Lundqvist another 130 games, and it doesn't guarantee he'll win two save percentage titles, a Conn Smythe, or another Vezina/1st Team All-Star. And yes, those are bigger accomplishments than 15 extra GP each season.

Lundqvist will eventually have a better career than Tim Thomas, but let us wait until he accomplishes more than Thomas before we try to justify such claims with Games Played.

In 7 Head to Head Seasons:

Tim Thomas beat Henrik Lundqvist in Vezina and Post Season All-Star voting twice, Henrik Lundqvist beat Tim Thomas 5 times.

Tim Thomas has had a better regular season Sv% than Henrik Lundqvist 3 times, Henrik Lundqvist has had a better regular season Sv% than Tim Thomas 4 times.

Thomas definitely has a better post season resume but Lundqvist has already has the superior regular season record.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

Negative. Mischaracterized. I'm just not led around by the [nose] by statistics that aren't keeping up with the changes of the game.

Obviously, not enough people have taken notice of the changes in the game yet. Thus, this little exchange. As these anomalistic spikes continue, maybe we'll continue to blissfully ignore them because they don't fit the "inflexible" and "narrow" general point of view.

I've said it a thousand times: Stats can follow the storyline, they don't create one.

And that's the thing isn't it? I've been noticing for the past couple of years that the usual statistical measures used to rate goaltenders isn't always matching up with reality anymore.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Negative. Mischaracterized. I'm just not led around by the [nose] by statistics that aren't keeping up with the changes of the game.

Obviously, not enough people have taken notice of the changes in the game yet. Thus, this little exchange. As these anomalistic spikes continue, maybe we'll continue to blissfully ignore them because they don't fit the "inflexible" and "narrow" general point of view.

I've said it a thousand times: Stats can follow the storyline, they don't create one.

There is a Tim Thomas storyline leading up to his peak seasons.


http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=58758101&postcount=391

Providence Bruins' Tim Thomas has been named the AHL's Goaltender of the Month for December.

Thomas posted a 10-4-0 record with a 1.68 goals-against average and a .941 save percentage in 14 games. The veteran netminder is the team's all-time leader with 11 shutouts. His latest award proves, once more, just how good he is.

"I'm having fun and I'm enjoying my teammates," he said. "Obviously things are easier around the rink when you're winning. But, it's nice to be recognized."

Thomas left a pretty sweet deal playing in Finland to resign with the Bruins during training camp this season. But, he was assigned to Providence at the end of camp and was clearly disappointed.

For the last six weeks, however, he has been playing like the Tim Thomas of old and the P-Bruins are benefiting.

"When you have success and you win, you have fun," said P-Bruins coach Scott Gordon. "He's really turned his game around in a short amount of time."

Thomas, who started his ninth straight game, said he's getting his feet under him to the point where it's not such an emotional roller coaster.

''Now that I've had a few more games, I'm actually settling into it, and every win isn't like you just won the Stanley Cup," he said. ''You've just got to keep it flat.

''It's starting to feel like it did in the AHL where you're just playing hockey instead of some special event every time. That's where you need to be as a player. If you're in awe of the game, it's hard to play."

Although he enjoyed Finland and felt it was the best option for him at the time, he said he's enjoying every second of his second chance here.

''I made peace with the fact that I wasn't going to play in the NHL," he said. ''I was happy to end out my career in Finland. Signing this year, getting sent down [to Providence] wasn't in my plans, but getting called back up, it was like awakening an old dream that you'd forgotten about.

''It's actually even better that way. I know how much luck it actually takes to get here. I needed two goalies to get hurt but also how much hard work you put in over the years, so you appreciate it more."

For much of his run, goalie Tim Thomas has been part spark plug, part superhero as he has helped the Bruins climb up the Eastern Conference standings.

Thomas, now 16-8-2, already has four more wins than he recorded last year, when he went 12-13-10 following his emergency January recall -- via recallable waivers -- from Providence (AHL). Following his tepid 1-2-1 start this season, when his goals-against mark was 3.33 and his save percentage a pedestrian .899, he has gone an impressive 15-6-1, trimmed his GAA to 2.92, and boosted his save percentage to .909. In his three recent wins, he has stopped 94 of 98 shots, for a stellar .959 save percentage.

"Personally, I don't think I ever really got behind the 8-ball this year," said Thomas, his low point that 1-2-1 mark while the Bruins plummeted to a troublesome 4-7-2 out of the chute the first month of the season. "We all looked bad opening night in Florida, but some of their goals were just incredible, coming off back-door plays and banging in off skates. I didn't think that was such a bad game. My next start, we lost in St. Louis after giving up that two-goal lead, but to be honest, I didn't fault myself for either of the two goals in the third period."

With the Bruins now on the verge of slipping into playoff territory in the Eastern Conference, all of that seems ancient history. Also put to rest has been the issue of finding a No. 1 goalie, a hunt that briefly had general manager Peter Chiarelli inquiring around the league for possible trades.

When the new season dawned, Thomas and Toivonen were slated to battle one another for the job. But Toivonen's slow start, followed by an ankle injury during a short tuneup in Providence, set the stage once more for Thomas to stake his claim as the starter.

"I watched Carey play against the Leafs (Tuesday) and it never looked like he was ever out of control. And I see a lot of the same things in Tuukka that I see in Carey. He's the real deal, for sure.

"It's funny, but all three of us are doing well."

In the case of Thomas, that is an understatement.

While Price is flourishing with the Habs and Rask is adapting to hockey life in North America with the Boston Bruins' AHL team in Providence, Thomas once again has clawed his way to the Bruins starter's job.

Seventeen months ago the Bruins dealt former rookie-of-the-year Andrew Raycroft to the Leafs for Rask, a gangly Finn who was voted the top goalie at the 2006 world junior in Vancouver.

This past summer came another goalie, former Minnesota Wild goalie Manny Fernandez, who was acquired via trade in order to, in the minds of many, be the Bruins' starter.

With Fernandez as the goalie of the present and Rask in the role of goalie of the future, there did not seem to be much room for Thomas. But when Fernandez got off to a rocky start, partially because his past knee ailment flared up, Thomas stepped in.

He has not looked back.

Going into tonight's game against the Leafs, Thomas sits second in the league in save percentage (.950) and fifth in goals-against average (1.65), allowing the offensively challenged Bruins to be close almost every night.

"I think I've proven I can be No. 1," he said. "I just think the chance came quicker than many expected. I'm happy with my start. I don't want too much credit when we win because I don't want credit when we lose."

And the story continues into those seasons where he posts those statistics that supposedly "aren't keeping up with the changes of the game" but were still reflected by the Bruins' success and Thomas' two Vezina/All-Star selections and Conn Smythe.

 

[quoipourquoi]

In 7 Head to Head Seasons:

Tim Thomas beat Henrik Lundqvist in Vezina and Post Season All-Star voting twice, Henrik Lundqvist beat Tim Thomas 5 times.

Tim Thomas has had a better regular season Sv% than Henrik Lundqvist 3 times, Henrik Lundqvist has had a better regular season Sv% than Tim Thomas 4 times.

Thomas definitely has a better post season resume but Lundqvist has already has the superior regular season record.

That's a bad way to measure players, and I'll give you an example as to why: Old Teemu Selanne bested Alex Ovechkin three times in six seasons in terms of points or points-per-game in the years leading into the most recent lockout. All of those victories of Selanne's were marginal: Beat Ovechkin by 2 points in 2007, 1 point in 2012, .002 points-per-game in 2011. Ovechkin, of course, cleaned Selanne's clock in the other three years when he was winning Pearson trophies, and arguably had a better three year stretch of value in those seasons than the value of Selanne's entire career. But if you compare those six seasons in a binary Player A Wins or Player B Wins, count 'em up game, they look equal.


Tim Thomas beat Henrik Lundqvist in the comparative years by save percentages of .009, .015, and .017.

Henrik Lundqvist beat Tim Thomas in the comparative years by save percentages of .005, .006, .010, and .012.

Hence, Thomas having the better statistical overlap in the regular season, the two save percentage titles, and the additional Vezina.

 

[Sonny Lamateena]

That's a bad way to measure players, and I'll give you an example as to why: Old Teemu Selanne bested Alex Ovechkin three times in six seasons in terms of points or points-per-game in the years leading into the most recent lockout. All of those victories of Selanne's were marginal: Beat Ovechkin by 2 points in 2007, 1 point in 2012, .002 points-per-game in 2011. Ovechkin, of course, cleaned Selanne's clock in the other three years when he was winning Pearson trophies, and arguably had a better three year stretch of value in those seasons than the value of Selanne's entire career. But if you compare those six seasons in a binary Player A Wins or Player B Wins, count 'em up game, they look equal.


Tim Thomas beat Henrik Lundqvist in the comparative years by save percentages of .009, .015, and .017.

Henrik Lundqvist beat Tim Thomas in the comparative years by save percentages of .005, .006, .010, and .012.

Hence, Thomas having the better statistical overlap in the regular season, the two save percentage titles, and the additional Vezina.

Ok then wouldn't comparing number of Vezina wins and 1st All-Star team finishes be equally flawed? It's [pretty clear that when it comes to Vezina voting and All Star finishes, the gap between Thomas and Lundqvist in years when Thomas finished higher is much smaller than in years when Lundqvist beat Thomas.

Vezina
06 Lundqvist (3rd), Thomas (No Votes)
07 Lundqvist (3rd), Thomas (No Votes)
08 Lundqvist (3rd), Thomas (9th)
09 Thomas (1st). Lundqvist (6th)
10 Lundqvist (6th), Thomas (No Votes)
11 Thomas (1st), Lundqvist (4th)
12 Lundqvist (1st), Thomas (No Votes)

All-Star Voting
06 Lundqvist (3rd), Thomas (No Votes)
07 Lundqvist (7th), Thomas (No Votes)
08 Lundqvist (4th), Thomas (10th)
09 Thomas (1st). Lundqvist (9th)
10 Lundqvist (9th), Thomas (No Votes)
11 Thomas (1st), Lundqvist (5th)
12 Lundqvist (1st), Thomas (No Votes)

 

[tjcurrie]

There's no revisionist history, we're only talking about MAF's 2 performances, and how he did his part good enough for his team to be in the position to win 2 Cups.

Whether he did or didn't, do you know how much player history we can change if we went through and did that for everyone?

Fleury will never get in the HOF. Not even close.

Tim Thomas will not get in.

Lunqvist is highly questionable and if I'm betting I'm saying no.

 

[Michael Farkas]

So when exactly did these changes occur and why do they cause these spikes?

They've evolved in recent times along with the position of goaltender. The proliferation of defense and goaltending is the reaction to the offense-happy 70's and 80's. This is the reflex back. The evolution of goaltender (all encompassing) is a little more obvious. The evolution and changes of defensive tactics are, obviously, a little less obvious.

Spikes are occurring when new defensive schemes meet quality rosters (especially defenses) meet disciplined coaches that demand a lot from their players. Fortunately or unfortunately, this type of coach has a short shelf life usually.

Look at Ken Hitchcock with Brian Elliott. Dave Tippett with Mike Smith recently.

Only sustainable if adjustments are made and/or players actually enjoy the stifling lack of creativity, etc.

 

[Michael Farkas]

And that's the thing isn't it? I've been noticing for the past couple of years that the usual statistical measures used to rate goaltenders isn't always matching up with reality anymore.

Yes sir, people are slowly starting to realize. Change is tough to accept sometimes, especially if it's not understood. Must have a fundamental understanding of the game to properly evaluate it. No chance otherwise.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

They've evolved in recent times along with the position of goaltender. The proliferation of defense and goaltending is the reaction to the offense-happy 70's and 80's. This is the reflex back. The evolution of goaltender (all encompassing) is a little more obvious. The evolution and changes of defensive tactics are, obviously, a little less obvious.

Spikes are occurring when new defensive schemes meet quality rosters (especially defenses) meet disciplined coaches that demand a lot from their players. Fortunately or unfortunately, this type of coach has a short shelf life usually.

Look at Ken Hitchcock with Brian Elliott. Dave Tippett with Mike Smith recently.

Only sustainable if adjustments are made and/or players actually enjoy the stifling lack of creativity, etc.

Is it correct to say that Lundqvist won his Vezina when he had exactly that kind of coach?

 

[Michael Farkas]

Is it correct to say that Lundqvist won his Vezina when he had exactly that kind of coach?

Very much so.

 

[Hot Water Bottle]

I think it helps Lundquist's case that he has been one of the faces of the league with a big personality, who is well known to casual fans ... and he may be helping to "build" the sport more so than some nondescript player with similar numbers.

I never saw Ed Giacomin play but it seems like a similar case in many ways... he seems to have had a similar type of career and also was a well liked hockey icon to the general public. Dunno if that's "right" but I think it is a factor for the HOF.

 

[bigbuffalo313]

That's a bad way to measure players, and I'll give you an example as to why: Old Teemu Selanne bested Alex Ovechkin three times in six seasons in terms of points or points-per-game in the years leading into the most recent lockout. All of those victories of Selanne's were marginal: Beat Ovechkin by 2 points in 2007, 1 point in 2012, .002 points-per-game in 2011. Ovechkin, of course, cleaned Selanne's clock in the other three years when he was winning Pearson trophies, and arguably had a better three year stretch of value in those seasons than the value of Selanne's entire career. But if you compare those six seasons in a binary Player A Wins or Player B Wins, count 'em up game, they look equal.

Except it is the only way to measure it since Thomas has only played those years. He was a rookie when he was 31. Selanne has been playing since the mid 90s, and OV since 06, so it is a stupid analogy.