Son Goku
henlo u stinky egg
"Mikita after 30? Crosby has 0 points in his 30's"
Mostly that's because he's not 30 yet..
Is Crosby one of the top Five NHL players of the last 50 years?
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"Mikita after 30? Crosby has 0 points in his 30's"
Mostly that's because he's not 30 yet..
OK, let's try to agree on some basic things.
Do you think that 60g+40a stat line is better than 40g+60a stat line? Forget about Crosby and Bossy, imagine something neutral, like McDavid posting 70g+30a this year instead of 30g+70a. Still 100 points, or 70g+30a is wow!, and 30g+70a is more bland in comparison?
My personal feeling is that 60g+40a>40g+60a, and I think many people will agree with that. There are numerous examples from Hart voting that are consistent with that, there are many players that are higher on the all-time list than their point finishes would warrant, the History board is often using goals as a tie-breaker.
So, goals are not an arbitrary tie-breaker. It is not like using assists, or hits, or plus-minus as a tie-breaker. Goals actually make sense.
And again, I would not compare Bossy and Jagr on goals, because Jagr is so much ahead in points production. But Crosby is not ahead of Bossy in this department, so there we go.
Let's try to show that, shall we? While being consistent in our criteria: i.e., if you value playoffs a lot, you can argue Crosby>Dionne, but then you have to accept Bossy>Crosby, you cannot turn on a dime and say Crosby>Bossy because longevity - if you value longevity that much, then Dionne>Crosby.
Another sign of consistency could be that if you argue Crosby>Dionne because of the playoffs, try finding another pair with similar differences in regular season results and playoff resumes and see if a similar comparison would be sensible. They don't have to be generational players, you can go Thornton vs. Toews or Justin Williams vs. Thomas Vanek (I have not looked into these particular pairs, just examples).
You seem to be placing a lot of emphasis on longevity rather than the quality of one's prime/peak. The list becomes very short in terms of players who have put up more top end seasons than Crosby. Only members of the Big Four have more Top 3 Art and Top 3 Hart finishes.
Two of the Big Four are lacking longevity. Crosby has already played as many games as Orr and Mario did when they secured their place in history. And without a doubt, both players get consideration for time missed due to injury.
Sens Rule
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Orr and Mario were far more dominant than Crosby was. It isn't close either. Which is why they are in the big 4 and Crosby is debated as to whether he might be top 10.
Hockey Outsider
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I thought I had responded to this exact point in another thread, but I can't find the reply.
Yes, by the "top three in Hart and Art Ross finishes" metric, Crosby is (marginally) ahead of Jagr, and behind only Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux. In fact, I was the one who pointed out that out in the first place.
But that's one of many ways of looking at the data. If we're using a binary approach (did he win the Hart or Art Ross, or not?), Crosby falls behind Orr, Jagr, Hull, Mikita, Esposito, Lafleur and Morenz. If the cut-off is top five or top ten, he'd still be behind most of those players, not to mention players like Beliveau, Richard, etc.
The point is - there are a bunch of ways of analyzing the data. Instead of focusing on the one approach that puts Crosby in the best possible light, consider all the different ways to break down the data. Overall I'm comfortable saying Crosby is in the same rink as Beliveau, Jagr, Messier, etc., which is truly remarkable given that he's only 29. But I have a hard time saying that he`s passed any of them since their peak accomplishments are very similar, and he`s so far behind in terms of longevity.
As I said before, Jagr has more seasons as a top twenty scorer than Crosby has seasons, period (and that doesn't even consider the unfortunate reality that Crosby already has four seasons where he missed significant time due to injuries). That matters to me. Perhaps it doesn`t to you, and that`s fine, but that`s how I see things.
I haven't looked at these "where does Sid rank in history" threads in a while, but I'm glad I did, because Hockey Outsider is giving the most honest, knowledgable, and academic assessment of Sid's ranking I've ever seen. Just remarkable for a message board, really!
The key fact is acknowledging that there are many different methodologies for assessing / evaluating a player comparable rank, even without trying to factor in cross era comparisons. Most of the posters on either side of the debate focus on one or two methodologies that support their position, and ignore the others without any justification. HO seems to genuinely want to debate the question without bias, and it's an astounding sight!
The key fact is acknowledging that there are many different methodologies for assessing / evaluating a player comparable rank, even without trying to factor in cross era comparisons. Most of the posters on either side of the debate focus on one or two methodologies that support their position, and ignore the others without any justification. HO seems to genuinely want to debate the question without bias, and it's an astounding sight!
Lol, what are you getting at? We have a pretty large sample size with Crosby injured and we saw Malkin totally destroy the league.
Hint: 2011-2012
Which universe are you living in? Jag was THE SUPERSTAR 1997 and up to his debacle in Capitals (And was amazing again in 2006). Some even argued that Jagr was the better player the year before Lemieux retired the first time.
If you didn't actually witnessed that era, which I seriously doubt, you shouldn't say things like this.
Yeah, how many points did an already old Jagr score that season? And who won the Lindsey award?
I said that using goal as ONLY decisive factor is stupid.As it would be to use ONLY assists. Look at the big picture.
I value reg season, playoffs, peak,prime,longevity,down seasons,injuries,ppg,goals,assists etc etc. Of course playoffs are a major thing especially if you are playing in a contender year in year out. In the end, the winning matters. But we need to consider everything, we shouldnt leave out stuff that isnt favoring our favorite players.
Bossy vs Sid is close, but as Sids career is progressing he is separating himself from Bossy. Both have quite similar playoff record, and as your stats showed, they are quite on same level with the reg season point finishes. Both proven winners.
As for longevity, I can assure you that Sid will play in high level until his career ends. Lets just enjoy the ride and see in 10years where he is with the numbers etc.
Laineux
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Some of the very best players in the world were Soviets back in the day. It stands to reason that there was lesser competition in the NHL, as all of the best players in the world didn't play there.
Just look at how dominant Sidney Crosby is if you remove his Russian competition. The best competition would be Kane, Thornton, Stamkos...?
Just look at how dominant Sidney Crosby is if you remove his Russian competition. The best competition would be Kane, Thornton, Stamkos...?
Gretzky
Orr
Lemieux
Lafleur
Yzerman
Messier
are all better and then there are goalies...
Dryden
Roy
Hasek
No, Crosby does not belong in the top 5.
Orr
Lemieux
Lafleur
Yzerman
Messier
are all better and then there are goalies...
Dryden
Roy
Hasek
No, Crosby does not belong in the top 5.
Well, I can't say whether you agree with 60g+40a>40g+60a due to goals being more important than assists, but if you do, how can one potentially use assists as a tie-breaker? If two players have similar points, but one has more assists, then the other has more goals, and thus his offensive production is better. Using goals is a more direct way of doing the same thing
As for other things, sure, there are other things. So let's put it down for the record: Bossy's regular season offensive production is better than Crosby's during their primes. That does not mean that Crosby cannot pass Bossy in other ways - for example, he can outlast Bossy by turning in more top10 finishes.
Two other things usually deemed important, playoffs and peak, are so far in Bossy's favor as well. Right now, the History board is doing top40 playoff performers project - Bossy is already in top20, and Crosby is out of top25. If you ask me, the project is a dynasty lovefest, but probably I just do not have the taste for this kind of thing.
Peak also seems to go in Bossy's favor:
Bossy, 3 best seasons, % lead over #10 in points
39-38-16
Bossy, same seasons, % lead over #10 in goals
73-28-42
Crosby, 3 best seasons, % lead over #10 in points
32-27-26
Crosby, same seasons, % lead over #10 in goals
6-46-(-10)
In addition to the offensive production in the three seasons being slightly better for Bossy, Bossy has a better best season, plus his three best seasons happened within four years, and Crosby's best three (06/07, 09/10, 13/14) were separated by 2-3 year gaps (unfortunate, but that's what happened).
So I am not sure what else one can use to say that Crosby>Bossy given his career so far. Trophy counting? We know that Bossy was going against peak Gretzky, peak Lafleur, and peak Trottier, so of course his trophy case is not as full. And of course he did not have the highest ppg in the league for whatever time span, because see the guys above.
But I would agree that Crosby can pass Bossy if his career continues well. I cannot guarantee you that, as you are trying to do, because a lot of things happen to players after 30, and Crosby is 30.
It is just so far, Crosby's career has not surpassed Bossy's career. So probably threads like this one are premature.
Yeah, I was a bit too eager on the Sid>Bossy, but its close still and case could be made for either one.
Would you have the adjusted point totals per season for Bossy vs Sid?
Jordan Belfort
Registered User
This is an embarrassing post. This is why we can't have discussions with Nostalgia bias when you put Joe Sakic ahead of Crosby. Crosby is top 5 all time
Adjusted points are terrible, I once did adjusted points and found out Ovechkin>Bobby Hull. Better adjusted ppg, better adjusted gpg before 30. As much as I love Ovechkin, that was tough to swallow.
In particular, adjusted points sell short all Original Six players (because third-liners back then were better than ever due to talent concentration), sell short everyone in the 80s (because the increase in scoring in the 80s affected third-liners more than stars) and then overvalue DPE-era stars (who played 25 minutes per game).
Frankly, the whole idea of benchmarking stars to the average player's production seems pretty bizarre, and that's what adjusted points are about.
History board's favorite VsX measure benchmarks players to 2nd-best player each season, and I find it much better, though tilted towards Original Six era somewhat
Here are points: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=130701727&postcount=2
Here are goals: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=130701879&postcount=6
Hockey Outsider generously did it using the 10th player instead of the 2nd player when I asked in another thread:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=132211315&postcount=612
For Bossy vs. Crosby, the difference was rather big, Bossy is almost 10% behind Crosby in points if benchmarked against #2 and roughly tied with Crosby if benchmarked against #10. #2 in Bossy's days were very tough guys to keep up with (three years of Dionne (tied with Gretzky once), one year of Lemieux, one year of Coffey, one year of Trottier, one year of Stastny, one year of Kurri fed by Gretzky).
Obviously this looking strictly at regular season offensive production. I feel their needs to be some distinction between seasons where Jagr was not in his prime/peak and three of the four partial seasons for Crosby where an Art Ross was a given in two, and a possibility in a third.
Mainly it feels like a complete dismissal of those four seasons when there obviously was some value to them, especially 2013 when he finished 2nd in Hart voting. Where Crosby's injuries come into to play is they kept him from putting up one or two legacy seasons when he appeared to be playing at his absolute peak.
IMO, Jagr's 1999 season is the only one that is clearly ahead of Crosby's best full season, all things considered. Jagr's Top 20 finishes are nice but are we prepared to say that Jagr pre 1994/95 was better than Crosby from 2010 - 2013?
Let's look at their best 8 year stretches:
Jagr - 94/95 to 01/02:
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...20012002&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points
Easily first in points, PPG of 1.49, the other Top 20 scorers sees 3 players at 1.20 or above PPG and a total of 14 players at a PPG or above.
Crosby's best 8 year stretch:
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...mesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,gamesPlayed
2nd in points despite missing 25% of his games. Easily first in points, PPG of 1.49, the other Top 20 scorers sees 1 players at 1.20 or above PPG and a total of 10 players at a PPG or above.
They are very close on a per game basis, obviously the nod has to go to Jagr for putting up the points.
Stretch this out their best 12 year stretches, and we get Jagr (93/94 - 05/06) with a PPG of 1.37 which is 41% better than the average PPG of the other Top 20 scorers and Crosby (05/06 - 16/17) with a PPG of 1.31 which is 38% better than the average PPG of the other Top 20 scorers.
Very close again on a per game basis, with Jagr getting the nod again for being the top point getter. We start adding in variables such linemates/teammates, all around play, playoffs, leadership, international performances etc... and I can see where Crosby is pretty close to Jagr all-time, and arguably ahead.
Hockey Outsider
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This is probably going to be my last post on Crosby vs Jagr, since I feel like the discussion, which has been great, is now going in circles.
Absolutely, Crosby's best seven/ten/twelve years match up well against Jagr's best seven/ten/twelve years. But Jagr has another 11-16 years worth of mostly good to great performances on top of that. In order to offset Jagr`s massive advantage in longevity, Crosby would need to have a decisively better peak/prime, and I don't think anybody has (or can) make that argument.
Nathaniel Skywalker
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Dr Jan Itor
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Hockey Outsider
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I'd already rank Crosby ahead of Bossy (based solely on what he's actually accomplished - no future projections involved).
Regular season offence
We can't simply compare top three or top five finishes, because Gretzky (and his linemates) were such outliers. Instead, let's compare the players to the NHL's 10th-place scorer each year. Here`s how they stack up:
Bossy: +39%, +38%, +17%, +16%, +15%, +13%, +12%, +5%
Crosby: +32%, +27%, +26%, +19%, +17%, +15%, +14%, +10%, +10%
It`s close in terms of regular season offense. Bossy has the higher two-year peak, but Crosby has nine years playing at least 10% above the tenth-place scorer, Bossy only has seven. Over their best ten years, Bossy was 13% ahead of the 10th-place scorer on average, Crosby was 16% ahead. Yes, Bossy was a better goal-scorer, but in terms of overall offensive contributions, I`m going to call this virtually even.
Defense
I`d give Crosby a slight edge. Bossy was remarkably average defensively. He wasn`t the soft, one-dimensinal player he was sometimes portrated as, but he wasn`t nearly as good as his plus/minus would suggest. Crosby has been above average over the course of his career (he improved a lot over time, of course, but on balance that`s how I`d rank him).
Playoffs
This is pretty even. Both have a Conn Smythe, but Bossy was far more dominant the year he won his. Crosby`s Smythe was fairly weak by historical standards. Advantage Bossy.
Over the span of his career, Bossy was 3rd in playoff PPG (minimum 50 games - excluding Gretzky and his linemates to make it a fairer comparison). As of this moment (ie before Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals is played), Crosby is in sole possession of first place. Advantage Crosby.
Bossy made it to the conference finals five times (all consecutive) and was a major part in all of them. Crosby also made the conference finals five times. He was poor in 2013 but was strong in all other years. Still, I`d give Bossy the edge here.
Overall Bossy scored 1.24 PPG in the playoffs, and Crosby scored 1.11. Bossy scored about 12% more in an era that featured something like 20% more offense. Advantage Crosby.
Bossy has finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 5th in playoff scoring. Crosby has finished 1st, 2nd, and will almost certainly finish in the top five again this year, even if he doesn't play another game. Still, Bossy gets the edge.
Bossy only led his team in scoring in the playoffs three times. Crosby has already done so four times. He also contributed a bigger share of his team`s offense (30.2% for Bossy, 35.8% for Crosby - through 2016 only). Advantage Crosby.
International play
Bossy played in three major international tournaments. In the 1979 Challenge Cup, he was dominant for the first four periods of the three-game match, then invisible the rest of the way as Canada was upset. In the 1981 Canada Cup, he led the tournament in goals, and was tied for second (behind Gretzky) in points. He was named to the tournament all-star team. In the 1984 Canada Cup, he was very good but not great.
I won't re-hash Crosby's international resume since I assume anyone reading this would be familiar with it. On balance they're pretty even.
Longevity
Bossy is one of the very few upper echelon players in history that Crosby has an advantage on in terms of longevity. Bossy had nine full seasons and one injury-shortened season (maybe eight and two, depending on how to categorise 1984). Crosby has eight full seasons and four shortened seasons. Overall Crosby has played exactly 30 more regular season games and, entering tonight`s game, 13 more playoff games. This is an advantage for Crosby, but it`s a small one.
Recognition as the best player in the league
It`s been close so far, but this is where Crosby decisively pulls away.
Crosby has won two Hart trophies. He was a finalist (top three) six times. Even if you remove Gretzky, Bossy only placed third or higher in Hart voting twice - 1981 and 1982. That`s a huge disparity, and, in my opinion, that ruins the argument that Bossy was the better player. The voters aren't always right, of course, but a 6-2 lead, after accounting for Gretzky, is too big to ignore.
Here`s another way of looking at it. During Bossy`s career, his linemate Bryan Trottier earned 178 adjusted Hart trophy votes (adjusted so that each year is worth the same) - second only to Gretzky. His teammate Denis Potvin, a defenseman, a position that`s traditionally short-changed when it comes to the Hart, earned 30 votes. Bossy only earned 28. A lot of fans don`t realize this today, but Bossy was probably only the third best player on his own team.
Over the course of his career, Crosby is far ahead of Malkin in Hart voting. Through the end of 2016, Crosby is behind only Ovechkin, but I strongly suspect that after the 2017 results are released, he`ll move into first place. He`s close to doubling Malkin`s voting record.
Not to over-simplify, but Crosby is at worst the second best player of this generation in terms of Hart trophy voting. Bossy was only the third best member of his team.
The only counter-argument is Bossy was named the best player at his position more often (five-time FAST, three-time SAST). But it's a narrow lead (assuming Crosby is the second-team all-star this year, which I think is highly likely, he'll be a four-time FAST, three-time SAST). A small edge for Bossy, but not enough to overcome Crosby's much bigger advantage with the more significant trophy.
Conclusion
This turned into a much longer post than I intended. Although it was close up until the end, I think Crosby has already surpassed Mike Bossy.
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NickyFotiu
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Im not saying Bossy was better than Sid. That is a toss up but Bossy was not the 3rd best on that team. Originally people gave Trots too much credit and Bossy not enough credit but as Trottier declined it began to show Bossy was actually the driving force. People did respect Trottiers defense. Trotts was also very hard to knock over. Bossy was not a great defensive player early on but he became very good. Al Arbor pretty much demanded that of his players. The edge Crosby has over Bossy is Crosby plays with more of a physical edge.
