Is Connor Hellebuyck tracking to be a HHOFer?

[SmytheKing]

Feels like goalies need a "story" or a "moment" to get in early. He doesn't have that yet, and while I think it's silly, seems like that would be a huge boost for him. Tracking though? Sure. Numbers will be there by the time he's done.

 

[I am not exposed]

He is miles better than Fleury. So he should be an automatic lock.

 

[wetcoast]

Joseph is not in

Wins isn't exactly the best metric to judge goalies on is it?

Either way Joseph was never as dominant as Helly for as long as peak prime okay for goalies is more important than something like wins.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

It is an interesting thought but I think Hellebuyck has a pretty good case for being the best goalie of his generation. His Vezina placements have to be up there.

Obviously, he doesn't have the team success of the Tampa Bay Lightning

 

[Jumptheshark]

No. Take a look at the goalies not in the hall. Con smythe winner cup winners

 

[tarheelhockey]

not sure about that. A much higher proportion of goalies are in vs skaters, so not sure how one could conclude it’s harder for them

I count 44 goalies out of 299 skaters, or 14.7%. If one out of every six inductees were goalies, that would be 16.7%. So goalies are in fact underrepresented relative to skaters.

And the numbers above are the result of a correction over the past few years. Vachon in 2016 was a sign of change, and since then 6/25 inductees have been goalies, so even the underrepresented number is actually a full percentage-point higher than it was a decade ago.

As a specific example of what this difficulty means in practice, look at last year’s class. Lundqvist and Barrasso were voted the best player at their position 5 times each. Mike Vernon, who is one of the weakest goalies in the HHOF, was voted a top-5 goalie three times, and was the #1 goalie on two Cup teams, winning the Smythe on one of them. Then there’s Pierre Turgeon, not even an especially weak inductee as a skater, who never once in his career was voted a top-5 player at his position, and never came anywhere near a Cup or a statistical award. Basically, longtime top-10 centers get in but longtime top-10 goalies do not. It’s a clear bias in the selection process.

 

[ScaredStreit]

I think he's on the right track. For whatever reason it's much easier to get in as a skater than a goaltender though.

 

[Voight]

If they're going to induct someone like MAF... then hell yeah he is.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

If they're going to induct someone like MAF... then hell yeah he is.

This.

if MAF is considered some golden lock for the HOF then Hellebuyck is a lock.

edit: and before the "Cups" crowd shows up, Hellebuyck would've won more behind Crosby-Malkin-Letang than MAF did

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Nah he’s mid

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Vezina #2 this year?

If he continues to be this good, he'll get in.

 

[Toby91ca]

I count 44 goalies out of 299 skaters, or 14.7%. If one out of every six inductees were goalies, that would be 16.7%. So goalies are in fact underrepresented relative to skaters.

Why are you doing a 1/6 calc to get 16.7%? Because there is 1 goalie and 5 skaters on the ice? That's just one shift though....there are another 13 skaters on the bench waiting for their shifts. I'd suggest you shouldn't really look at 2 goalies as the population because can't look at starters and backups the same, but you could say the same about 4 line players vs. 1 line players I guess. So, generally a team is going to start a game with 2 goalies and 18 skaters. So 2/18 = 11.1%....but 14.4% of the members of the HHOF are goalies by your calc. To me, that doesn't suggest under representation.....it's not the simple, but that's the starting point I always consider.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

 

[STLegend]

Hello Mr. HHOF

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Famously, the most important criterion for HHOF induction is surface level statistical performance over a player's most recent six playoff games.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Why are you doing a 1/6 calc to get 16.7%? Because there is 1 goalie and 5 skaters on the ice? That's just one shift though....there are another 13 skaters on the bench waiting for their shifts. I'd suggest you shouldn't really look at 2 goalies as the population because can't look at starters and backups the same, but you could say the same about 4 line players vs. 1 line players I guess. So, generally a team is going to start a game with 2 goalies and 18 skaters. So 2/18 = 11.1%....but 14.4% of the members of the HHOF are goalies by your calc. To me, that doesn't suggest under representation.....it's not the simple, but that's the starting point I always consider.

This is basically saying that the most underrepresented group in the HHOF is shitty players. It’s… not wrong.

But I don’t think it’s a meaningful way to think about “representation” in this context. The number of players sitting on the bench is immaterial to the question of who the best players are.

Say we lived in an alternate timeline where NHL teams had only 2 lines/pairings and were allowed to carry 3 backup goalies. When it came time to pick awards, would goalies be “better represented”? No, we’d still be picking one guy for the Vezina and two for All Star positions, same as now. Likewise, the HHOF would still be choosing from a pool where the ratio of first-line skaters to #1 goalies is 5:1, same as now. The bench players and backup goalies are just a big pile of ineligibles — the representation of positions on the ice remains constant.

That’s why, all else being neutral, there should be a 3:2:1 relationship between top forwards:defensemen:goalies. If that’s not happening, then something is not neutral in the selection process.

 

[Bobby9]

Crazy stats. Goalies seems to be huge head cases. They can go god mode or just collapse.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Famously, the most important criterion for HHOF induction is surface level statistical performance over a player's most recent six playoff games.

Famously, HHOF worthy players usually win stuff.

 

[rangersfansince08]

Heard him described as the best goalie in the game (when Shesterkin is .928 in the playoffs vs Connor's .914)

 

[Gm0ney]

Anything can happen in small samples.

Also, Hellebuyck should get a difficulty factor multiplier for having to play behind Neal Pionk. I'm sure Rangers fans will agree...

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Famously, HHOF worthy players usually win stuff.

Other than Adin Hill, how many active NHL goaltenders have won a Cup in their last six playoff games?

 

[geebster]

The HOF goalie he most compares to is Luongo and Luongo had a Finals appearance and the gold medal and backstopped a better team. He didnt win a Vezina like Helle did, but he did get nominated and also got nominated for a Hart coming second to Crosby.

On that basis I wouldnt put him in right now, but he is pretty close. He almost certainly has the Vezina this year giving him two. I would say a single deep playoff run where he factors in strongly would be enough really. Or a gold medal

 

[Icarium]

Other than Adin Hill, how many active NHL goaltenders have won a Cup in their last six playoff games?

Darcy Kuemper says hi.

 

[Xerloris]

This.

if MAF is considered some golden lock for the HOF then Hellebuyck is a lock.

edit: and before the "Cups" crowd shows up, Hellebuyck would've won more behind Crosby-Malkin-Letang than MAF did

I'm not a huge MAF fan but 3 cups, 4 finals appearances, 2nd all time in wins. Ya that's HHOF worthy.

Yea, Hellebuyck could have had more wins behind those guys than MAF but he didn't.

Never seen anything more HHOF worthy in my life.

 

[Gm0ney]

I'm not a huge MAF fan but 3 cups, 4 finals appearances, 2nd all time in wins. Ya that's HHOF worthy.

Yea, Hellebuyck could have had more wins behind those guys than MAF but he didn't.


Never seen anything more HHOF worthy in my life.

Fleury wasn't even the best goalie on his team for 2 of those 3 Cups...