In Soviet Russia, Ryan O'Reilly signs you.

[Foppa2118]

O'Ry's agent can, and has, put together a case that identifies him as one of the premiere defensive players of the past 20 years... statistically speaking. Given the offensive production increase as well that those players(and other players he is compared to) achieved, he has a really strong case. Sherman appears to be a hell of a negotiator though. As far as I know, only Jones had easy negotiations, but I don't know all of them.

Statistically speaking, and even from observing his game, one could make a very strong case for him being one of the best two way players (purely two way, not Datsyuk level with PPG level offense). The problem lies in his age, and only one good offensive season with the rookie of the year, to hold out for a long term deal. He very well may deserve it, and I personally believe his offense won't dip much if any, but it's unreasonable for them to ignore the aspects that I just mentioned and refuse a short term deal.

Is it fair to say that at this point, or even at any point, he doesn't want to sign a similar or the exact deal that Duchene did? Whether it's one or two years?

 

[hockeyfish]

Just heard live minutes ago on Hockey Central at Noon, interview with Don Meehan when asked about O'Rielly and if the two sides were close:

"People from our office were talking with GM Greg Sherman last night and have been in constant communication with the Avalanche (assuming since MOU)".

He wouldn't say whether the two sides were close or not.

Earlier in the interview, when asked the same question about Subban, he definitely said the two sides were NOT close.

There you go.

Holy crap, you mean to say there could be something positive to report. It may not be 100% bad. No way!

 

[Drij]

On hockey central at noon radio show on sportsnet they just had player agent Don Meehan on and they asked him about O'Reilly.

Don Meehan said the Sherman has been talking with 2 lawyers about O'Reilly and they had discussion with him yesterday.

 

[Taak19]

Well.. sure glad I opted for a Landeskog jersey for my birthday rather than a Radar one.

 

[henchman21]

Statistically speaking, and even from observing his game, one could make a very strong case for him being one of the best two way players (purely two way, not Datsyuk level with PPG level offense). The problem lies in his age, and only one good offensive season with the rookie of the year, to hold out for a long term deal. He very well may deserve it, and I personally believe his offense won't dip much if any, but it's unreasonable for them to ignore the aspects that I just mentioned and refuse a short term deal.

Is it fair to say that at this point, or even at any point, he doesn't want to sign a similar or the exact deal that Duchene did? Whether it's one or two years?

Yes. His deal in the KHL pretty much proves that.

I'd love to be optimistic about this, but each day that passes it looks worse and worse for him staying long-term. Hopefully this is resolved soon and all parties can start the mending process.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

My favorite poster has returned! TPS I really appreciate the insight you provide us, hope to hear more from you in the future.

Headed out to California on Friday, back on Monday so I'll miss Saturday's game against the Wild.

I'll be back more often now, though. The drinking binges with the boys are done.

 

[AdamCalderHero]

If O'Reilly does get traded I will be absolutely gutted. But thats doesn't stop me being a little bit excited about the shiny new defenseman we get playing next to EJ

 

[henchman21]

If O'Reilly does get traded I will be absolutely gutted. But thats doesn't stop me being a little bit excited about the shiny new defenseman we get playing next to EJ

I think a lot of us will be. It will hurt worse than losing Lappy.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

TPS, any idea what his contract in Russia is? Lots of rumors out there.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

And didn't someone say that the Avs are one of the teams with the most "loose" interpretation of a takeaway, i.e. it's easier to rack up good numbers while playing in Denver.

EDIT: Oooh, beaten to it.

I have no idea how to check that, but if someone here can post the distribution of NHL takeaways by home teams (i.e. the amount of takeaways credited to both teams in total), that might tell us something. As would knowing how those 101 O'Reilly takeaways were distributed to home/away games.

Naturally all the games are not equal and just like with points and wins, it is very possible that teams/players are better at home. Is O'Reilly? I have no idea.

 

[RockLobster]

Headed out to California on Friday, back on Monday so I'll miss Saturday's game against the Wild.

I'll be back more often now, though. The drinking binges with the boys are done.

TPS, if you'll indulge me, as well as most of the other posters out there...

You said that you'd be surprised if Ryan plays another game in an Avs jersey. Could you/Can you elaborate on that? Do you personally feel that he'll be traded or just left in the KHL? Does Ryan feel that he'll be traded or just left in the KHL?

I don't want to pry too much, because these guys deserve their privacy as well.

I'm just curious if we should be expecting a trade or expecting nothing?

 

[Foppa2118]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=57624753&postcount=986

@Foppa2118

I think the situations between Foppa/Foote and ROR are comparble all 3 players wanted more money but they're just using different ways of getting it. It maybe be taboo of O'rielly to go and sign with in Russia but it shouldn't be. We also don't know if the avs are indeed trying to lowball Ryan, so it's hard to say.

I fundamentally disagree based on the UFA, HOF, Hart trophy, CBA, and cap constriction reasons I mentioned previously, but that's ok.

I think the differences in those situations are so vast, that even the Russian contract factor lies behind them in terms of importance.

Aren't takeaways one of those stats that vary wildly based upon the locale and scorekeeper?

He's obviously a fantastic defender, as we've all seen by his play. But is it possible this particular stat doesn't always compare well?

I think you're right, but from watching O'Reilly every night, you can clearly see he's one of the best in the league without having a stat to back it up.

Give aways are the stat that to me is completely meaningless for lots of reasons.

Just heard live minutes ago on Hockey Central at Noon, interview with Don Meehan when asked about O'Rielly and if the two sides were close:

"People from our office were talking with GM Greg Sherman last night and have been in constant communication with the Avalanche (assuming since MOU)".

He wouldn't say whether the two sides were close or not.

Earlier in the interview, when asked the same question about Subban, he definitely said the two sides were NOT close.

There you go.

Well that's somewhat optimistic, but I think the extreme delicacy of O'Reilly's situation, and that every agent and GM knows the Avs will not tolerate negotiating through the media, means that he's more likely to just make boring we're still talking comments on his situation, as opposed to putting a little more pressure on Suban's negotiations. Just a thought.

 

[TatteredTornNFrayed]

Avs seems to be strong believes in short second contracts and then pay for UFA years in the third contract. Most players have bought in and O'Reilly is the first that really didn't. Stastny is excluded because it was a different GM and a different time.

Not only was it a different time, different cap, different GM, but no Av's player negotiating for a contract has come even close to Stastny's early production level either. (including the recent Stastny) (0.96 PPG the 3 years prior to his contract, and .98 the 1st season after the contract).

 

[Freudian]

Patrice Bergeron, who is a good comparison defensively but has a higher offensive upside got a second deal of 5 years at $4.75M/year cap hit.

I don't think if O'Reilly asks for $4M/year for 5 years it is unreasonable. If he asks for $5M/year, I'd probably want him to stay in Russia for another 18 months and then trade him after that. You can't instantly reward getting blackmailed by agents by trading him now. O'Reilly made his bed here. He is squeezing Avs and have to accept there is some risk associated with that.

Hopefully both sides come to their senses and realize it's in the best interest of everyone to sign a reasonable deal and move on. I don't think there are any hard feelings between Doughty and Kings.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

Is it fair to say that at this point, or even at any point, he doesn't want to sign a similar or the exact deal that Duchene did? Whether it's one or two years?

Duchene signs that kind of deals because on his contract season he was unproven and injury prone along with having special feelings for Avalanche (his favorite team since being a kid). I really don't think O'Reilly should agree to something like that.

 

[Foppa2118]

Yes. His deal in the KHL pretty much proves that.

I'd love to be optimistic about this, but each day that passes it looks worse and worse for him staying long-term. Hopefully this is resolved soon and all parties can start the mending process.

Most likely true, but that wouldn't have prevented him from signing it late in the summer, and then playing in a European league with a regular out clause.

Duchene signs that kind of deals because on his contract season he was unproven and injury prone along with having special feelings for Avalanche (his favorite team since being a kid). I really don't think O'Reilly should agree to something like that.

IMO, the unproven nature of both, and the early offense from a 3rd overall pick that dipped in the third year, versus a 2nd round defensive player whose offense picked up in the third year, makes their contractual demands almost identical.

Both players have question marks long term in where their game will end up, they just come from different angles. I think from O'rReilly's standpoint, signing a one or two year deal at $3.5M would almost be more acceptable, than a guy like Duchene. I think Duchene had a better case to ask for $4-$4.5M. That's just the benefit of being the more offensive player, with higher point totals.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

TPS, if you'll indulge me, as well as most of the other posters out there...

You said that you'd be surprised if Ryan plays another game in an Avs jersey. Could you/Can you elaborate on that? Do you personally feel that he'll be traded or just left in the KHL? Does Ryan feel that he'll be traded or just left in the KHL?

I don't want to pry too much, because these guys deserve their privacy as well.

I'm just curious if we should be expecting a trade or expecting nothing?

I don't know much about whether he's being traded soon or anything like that... again, I don't know scouts or GMs or agents. Just players. All I know is that when things were close, the Avs started pointing out major deficiencies in O'Ry... the response was that he's one of the best defensive players of the past 25 years and a bigger leader/means more than $6.6 Paul or $3.5 Matty.

I mentioned last year how much this guy cares about anything, he's a passionate person and that comes from his mom. Some of the things said have really strained the relationship between O'Reilly and the Avs.

If they can hash this stuff out, all the better and I will be happy to be wrong. As of now, the relationship is very poor. Intermediaries for discussions, etc. It's ugly.

 

[TatteredTornNFrayed]

Just heard live minutes ago on Hockey Central at Noon, interview with Don Meehan when asked about O'Rielly and if the two sides were close:

"People from our office were talking with GM Greg Sherman last night and have been in constant communication with the Avalanche (assuming since MOU)".

He wouldn't say whether the two sides were close or not.

Earlier in the interview, when asked the same question about Subban, he definitely said the two sides were NOT close.

There you go.

There you go, giving us hope again. ;-)

But seriously, thanks for the update.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Yup, I was absolutely shocked at the hometown discount JayMac took, turning down a better offer from us before FA started and other teams' offers after FA started.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong here as well!

To be fair and perhaps clarify with us, have you heard that O'Reilly himself supports and is fully aware of what is going on? I can see an agent going for the moon every time in negotiations, but if O'Reilly agrees with the move and thinks he has earned an absurd contract I will be very disappointed in him.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

Patrice Bergeron, who is a good comparison defensively but has a higher offensive upside got a second deal of 5 years at $4.75M/year cap hit.

I don't think if O'Reilly asks for $4M/year for 5 years it is unreasonable. If he asks for $5M/year, I'd probably want him to stay in Russia for another 18 months and then trade him after that. You can't instantly reward getting blackmailed by agents by trading him now. O'Reilly made his bed here. He is squeezing Avs and have to accept there is some risk associated with that.

Hopefully both sides come to their senses and realize it's in the best interest of everyone to sign a reasonable deal and move on. I don't think there are any hard feelings between Doughty and Kings.

There's a reason why Kings is the defending champion while Avs have not exactly made serious Cup runs on this decade. Kings understands that when you have the best players, it costs money. For Avs the idea is that when you have the best players, the right reaction is "We need to save to sign our young key players".

 

[RockLobster]

To be fair and perhaps clarify with us, have you heard that O'Reilly himself supports and is fully aware of what is going on? I can see an agent going for the moon every time in negotiations, but if O'Reilly agrees with the move and thinks he has earned an absurd contract I will be very disappointed in him.

I think if we can "read between the lines" so to speak w/ what TPS is saying. He's told us that the sides were real close, and when that happend, the Avs started pointing out deficiencies in O'Reilly's game. If Ryan is as passionate as TPS has told us that he is, when it comes to playing Hockey, I can see that causing a BIG strain on the negotiations.

At this point, I feel that Ryan is in control of the sitauation he's in with regards to Russia. It appears that he agrees with the move and whatnot...

Then again I could be totally off.

 

[henchman21]

It is probably over, best prepare yourselves now. If ROR plays again for the Avs, I don't expect it to be long term. It is like Deja vu with the Drury situation all over again.

 

[Kshahdoo]

TPS, any idea what his contract in Russia is? Lots of rumors out there.

It can be anything. Even relatively small. I very doubt any Russian team would give 4M to 21 year old canadian. Look at Kane and his statistics in Minsk.

Why then did ROR agree to play in Magnitogorsk? Well, first, there wasn't any NHL hockey back then. And many were saying there wouldn't. Second, he could play with his brother first time in his life. And third, it could be a pretty good negotiation tactics. Actually, it already looks like a very good negotiation tactics with all those rumors about big milions O'Reilly is getting in Russia.

In any cases he won't lose. He's playing hockey, having fun, and will get his money anyway. And there is a good chance he'll get more than his money.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don't know much about whether he's being traded soon or anything like that... again, I don't know scouts or GMs or agents. Just players. All I know is that when things were close, the Avs started pointing out major deficiencies in O'Ry... the response was that he's one of the best defensive players of the past 25 years and a bigger leader/means more than $6.6 Paul or $3.5 Matty.

I mentioned last year how much this guy cares about anything, he's a passionate person and that comes from his mom. Some of the things said have really strained the relationship between O'Reilly and the Avs.

If they can hash this stuff out, all the better and I will be happy to be wrong. As of now, the relationship is very poor. Intermediaries for discussions, etc. It's ugly.

This sounds like an arbitration process, but that plays out that way because the team has to say it in front of the player. I blame his agent for taking his stance, and then telling O'Reilly everything that the team says in response.

For him to take the ridiculously subjective, and unprovable stance of him being the best in the last 25 years, of course the Avalanche are going to counter with reasons from the other end of the spectrum as to why he's not the best, and question marks in his game and his role on the team.

For him to let O'Reilly take that personally and to heart is a problem. He as an agent is approaching this from a business standpoint, and so are the Avs, and he's then using their stance to enpassion his client into taking the hardline stance he wants to. I'm sure Mark Guy isn't taking it personally, he just needs O'Reilly to in order for him not to cave.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

It can be anything. Even relatively small. I very doubt any Russian team would give 4M to 21 year old canadian. Look at Kane and his statistics in Minsk.

Why then did ROR agree to play in Magnitogorsk? Well, first, there weren't any NHL hockey back then. And many were saying there wouldn't. Second, he could play with his brother first time in his life. And third, it could be a pretty good negotiation tactics. Actually, it already looks like a very good negotiation tactics with all those rumors about big milions O'Reilly is getting in Russia.

In any cases he won't lose. He's playing hockey, having fun, and will get his money anyway. And there is a good chance he'll get more than his money.

Also, from a view of player development I think playing in KHL is a great move. Big minutes and new view to the game will help him. Some Tim Thomas came to Finland as a neverheard and came back to NHL to dominate the league.