Implications of cap going down?

[briererocks]

According to rumours (see below) cap may be going down by 4 million next year. What are the implications vis a vis resigning our rfas and the ufa market.

I think if it is going down the flyers may be forced to buyout both Umberger and MacDonald. It also may force alot of older players out of the league. In the case of the flyers, you may have young players making the cap minimum on the team. Leier and Alt may be on the team due to cap considerations.

Thoughts?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-11/the-loonie-is-driving-nhl-players-crazy

Jimmy Murphy @MurphysLaw74
Told by an NHL & NHLPA source that 2016-17 cap could go down as much as $4 million. If true, interested in what that does to trade deadline
3:56 PM - 12 Feb 2016
123 123 Retweets 40 40 likes

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[Hurricane28]

You would see probably no deals at all if its going down. Nobody would give Stamkos 10 mil either

 

[briererocks]

You would see probably no deals at all if its going down. Nobody would give Stamkos 10 mil either

Buffalo and Toronto might pay for stamkos but your point is spot on. Ladd and most other ufas will not get paid.

 

[GKJ]

I think Andrew MacDonald better learn to love Allentown.

 

[briererocks]

I think Andrew MacDonald better learn to love Allentown.

We cannot afford to bury him there with the cap going down. We only save 1 mil in cap space with him there. I think the only option would be a buyout of MacDonald. Umberger is a no brainer.

 

[Hurricane28]

If it went down by 4 mil would it be possible that they give a team a buyout with a limited penalty because of how much it is going down?

 

[GKJ]

Buffalo and Toronto might pay for stamkos but your point is spot on. Ladd and most other ufas will not get paid.

You already saw that market dry up last year as well.

If it went down by 4 mil would it be possible that they give a team a buyout with a limited penalty because of how much it is going down?

Doubtful. That only ever happens when a new CBA is put in place.

 

[klutch]

I'm confused, I thought there was talk of 'upping' the cap by 2 million or something like that

 

[briererocks]

I'm confused, I thought there was talk of 'upping' the cap by 2 million or something like that

Something like 33 to 40 percent of revenue comes from the Canadian teams and the Canadian dollar is getting hammered due to cheap oil.

In Canadian dollars I doubt the Canadian teams are suffering a revenue loss. But the revenue loss in dollars for the league is huge.

 

[Flyers Faithful]

I think Andrew MacDonald better learn to love Allentown.

It's a shame with MacDonald really. He's had a good year down in Lehigh. Think he'd rather make 2.5 mil a year and be back in the NHL or make his 5 mil a year and play the rest of his career in the AHL?

 

[David St Hubbins]

First thing, deals signed by FAs will need to be smaller. The players will react with shorter term deals, avoiding being locked into what they feel is a substandard contract for too long.

For the Flyers, forget moving anyone with term unless you retain, which we can't do at the deadline. Streit, Schultz, Read stay, Medvedev & other pending FAs go. McDonald's deal keeps him in Philly

The upside for us could be that Schultz and Streit are attractive at the draft, with 1 and 2.5 million retained respectively. 1year deals cost controlled and cheap could be very attractive

Come the draft

 

[1865]

We cannot afford to bury him there with the cap going down. We only save 1 mil in cap space with him there. I think the only option would be a buyout of MacDonald. Umberger is a no brainer.

Yep, we become a much better team by moving Schultz somehow and recalling MacDonald.

 

[Appleyard]

Voracek ($8.25m) -- Giroux ($8.275m) -- Simmonds ($3.975m)
Raffl ($2m) -- Couturier ($4.33m) -- Schenn ($4.2m)
Laughton ($0.863m) -- Cousins ($0.9m) -- Read ($3.625m)
Leier ($0.780m) -- Bellemare ($0.713m) -- VandeVelde ($0.713m)
xxxxx (~$0.7m)

Del Zotto ($3.875m) -- Gostisbehere ($0.925m)
Schultz ($2.25m) -- Streit ($5.25m)
Provorov ($0.925m) -- Gudas ($3m)
MacDonald ($5m)

Mason ($4.1m)
Neuvirth ($1.625m)

Umberger buyout ($1.6m)

Overall cap: ~$67.9m

And that is without trading Streit, Schultz or Read at deadline or in summer...

 

[Psuhockey]

Voracek ($8.25m) -- Giroux ($8.275m) -- Simmonds ($3.975m)
Raffl ($2m) -- Couturier ($4.33m) -- Schenn ($4.2m)
Laughton ($0.863m) -- Cousins ($0.9m) -- Read ($3.625m)
Leier ($0.780m) -- Bellemare ($0.713m) -- VandeVelde ($0.713m)
xxxxx (~$0.7m)

Del Zotto ($3.875m) -- Gostisbehere ($0.925m)
Schultz ($2.25m) -- Streit ($5.25m)
Provorov ($0.925m) -- Gudas ($3m)
MacDonald ($5m)

Mason ($4.1m)
Neuvirth ($1.625m)

Umberger buyout ($1.6m)

Overall cap: ~$67.9m

And that is without trading Streit, Schultz or Read at deadline or in summer...

That's probably the roster next. Not much of an improvement but I think Hextall has one more year of mediocrity before management and the fans start getting restless.

I wonder if it is really worth resigning Gudas at this point at that number. He was great in the beginning of the season but his play and discipline really fell off.

 

[Juicy Pop]

I'm so damn happy that we have Hextall running the show. I don't even want to think about how sick I would feel if the team had to literally give assets away just to dip under the cap.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I wouldn't worry until something happens. I've seen similar reports saying it could go up $3 million. The GMs likely have a handle on it.

 

[Appleyard]

That's probably the roster next. Not much of an improvement but I think Hextall has one more year of mediocrity before management and the fans start getting restless.

I wonder if it is really worth resigning Gudas at this point at that number. He was great in the beginning of the season but his play and discipline really fell off.

Paying him $3m in todays market is pretty much paying him to be a low end #4 to good #5. There are going to be ~110-115 Dmen on more than that next season.

I kind of trust Gudas to be a good #5 going forward. But any more than ~$3m and I would not be too happy.

 

[Pantokrator]

I think the cap going down will be a windfall for the lower teams. The top teams will have to make deals to get under the cap.

The Flyers are in good shape. Aside from B. Schenn and Gudas, there really aren't any players we need to keep. Plus, buying out Umberger will help some.

I think if the cap went down 4 mil, the league would do something to help. The Pens would already be at the Cap and still have like 10 roster spots to fill. I think the chaos that would ensue would cause the league to do something - make temporary exemptions or the like.

 

[Prongo]

We hear this every year. It won't go down. It will stagnate and just level off at the same place it is now.

We just have to hope the CD rebounds to better levels. I think we see a very modest bump like 1 million or so.

 

[deadhead]

My suspicion is they'd maneuver to avoid the cap declining, maybe taking money out of future years, so the more likely scenario is a 2-3 year cap set at current levels (i.e. a negotiated longer term freeze rather than a decline).

But it does suggest that salary negotiations should be predicated on a flat cap for the next few years, and a slow increase afterwards. ESPN is starting to feel the pain, and I think the days of mega-sports TV contract increases is about over - the cow has been milked dry.

 

[lancer247]

I don't see the CD improving much anytime soon. That being said if it were going to go down $4MM I think the league would give owners a heads up.

If it is true Teams will need young cheap talent so you can probably forget getting a 2nd for someone like Medvedev.

 

[Appleyard]

I don't see the CD improving much anytime soon. That being said if it were going to go down $4MM I think the league would give owners a heads up.

If it is true Teams will need young cheap talent so you can probably forget getting a 2nd for someone like Medvedev.

Should not affect upcoming UFA's at the deadline really though... if Medvedev is traded at deadline the cap next year is not really going to play into a teams valuation of him.

 

[Curufinwe]

I think Andrew MacDonald better learn to love Allentown.

You only save $950,000 on the cap by keeping him in the AHL and any of the D prospects make about that much so at best you could save about $300,000 by giving his roster spot to an unskilled plug making minimum wage.

 

[GKJ]

You only save $950,000 on the cap by keeping him in the AHL and any of the D prospects make about that much so at best you could save about $300,000 by giving his roster spot to an unskilled plug making minimum wage.

Every penny counts. He might have a roommate in Nick Schultz.

Things may change if they can move Streit, but I don't think they'd do that specifically to make room for MacDonald. Of course, now it would be harder to move Streit as well.

Regardless, while it seems that it is the time that it could definitely happen, there have been urban legends of the imminent decrease of the cap as well. We'll see what tricks both sides have up their sleeves as it is a bad situation for everybody.

 

[Curufinwe]

Flyers management love Nick Schultz. And there's plenty of cap room as Appleyard showed.

Paying him $3m in todays market is pretty much paying him to be a low end #4 to good #5. There are going to be ~110-115 Dmen on more than that next season.

I kind of trust Gudas to be a good #5 going forward. But any more than ~$3m and I would not be too happy.

Hextall should use his lack of points, suspension(s), the stagnating cap and his RFA status to get him down to 2.75 or even 2.5.