Speculation: II. 2014 Stars Offseason Thread: Tomahawk Steaks For Everyone

[BigG44]

Glennie article from Mark Stepneski

“I think this year he has played his best. He’s had some injury problems, but he’s played through them. In the playoffs, he has really taken another step,” said Dallas Stars assistant GM Les Jackson. “He’s earned the trust of the coaches and he gets a lot of opportunity to play. This has been his best season as a pro. It’s positive for Scotty.”

None of the quotes focuses too much on his future .... chances of playing in Dallas next year, but this post season run is very positive for him.

I think you just have to look at waiver status and Nill's comment on the importance of playoff performance to him to get the idea this guy will be around in Dallas next year even if it's a reduced, Kevin Connauton type role.

 

[BigG44]

This is the power Doug Wilson lacks with Joe Thorton:

Renaud Lavoie ‏@renlavoietva

#senators gm Bryan Murray said that Jason Spezza requested a trade. He still likes him on his team.

No reasonable person buys this threat from the SJ Sharks. If the rumor is accurate, they clearly want a culture change and they want him gone ... likely reducing his value. He's not just flirting with the idea of what can I get for him.

On the other hand, Murray really is in a strong position even though Spezza has less term (which is actually better for some teams). It makes sense that they don't have any need to rush and move him. His value now is likely similar to what it would be at the trade deadline. Last year could have been the start of a trend of declining prices, but I'd like to see it happen again before I buy into that idea.

Not trading Thornton only apparently hurts SJ ... that's a tough bluff to give up when negotiating trades. Their only way to potentially still get very good value from him is to hope he'd open up the possibility of waiving for multiple teams, and then those teams have mutual interest and a strong need. If MTL, DAL, and say CHI and/or ANA got in a bidding way, SJ could still potentially get fair value for him. I'd say the chances of that happening are fairly low with so many other centers on the market.

On the other hand, I do believe Ottawa probably gets a premium payment for Spezza. It's just a matter of now or during the season.

 

[BigG44]

This is very likely a stretch, but could this be translated as, "Maybe a crazed hockey market might not be my 1st choice, and going somewhere where I don't have to be the lead dog would be nice?"

Bruce Garrioch ‏@SunGarrioch

Murray told me Spezza wants out because he's blamed too often when the club doesn't win. #Sens

I honestly would love a guy like Spezza in Dallas ... or even Statsny or whoever. I might be pessimistic about the reality of that happening because let's face it the odds are really not overwhelming in any single team's favor to land one particular player usually. You usually have to get lucky as much as be smart.

Anyway ... it probably is just wishful thinking and trying to manipulate that statement to fit Dallas' situation ... or maybe there's a chance a city like Dallas would be very attractive, and a team like the Stars would allow him to just be a great player rather than the franchise player. A half a dozen or more locations offer similar advantages (although all wouldn't be realistic destinations).

 

[Mr Misty]

This is the power Doug Wilson lacks with Joe Thorton:



No reasonable person buys this threat from the SJ Sharks. If the rumor is accurate, they clearly want a culture change and they want him gone ... likely reducing his value. He's not just flirting with the idea of what can I get for him.

On the other hand, Murray really is in a strong position even though Spezza has less term (which is actually better for some teams). It makes sense that they don't have any need to rush and move him. His value now is likely similar to what it would be at the trade deadline. Last year could have been the start of a trend of declining prices, but I'd like to see it happen again before I buy into that idea.

Not trading Thornton only apparently hurts SJ ... that's a tough bluff to give up when negotiating trades. Their only way to potentially still get very good value from him is to hope he'd open up the possibility of waiving for multiple teams, and then those teams have mutual interest and a strong need. If MTL, DAL, and say CHI and/or ANA got in a bidding way, SJ could still potentially get fair value for him. I'd say the chances of that happening are fairly low with so many other centers on the market.

On the other hand, I do believe Ottawa probably gets a premium payment for Spezza. It's just a matter of now or during the season.

I'd be surprised if he gets what the rumored asking price is with Kesler, Thornton, and one of the Montreal centers potentially available. No teams are going to trade for Spezza during the season and send back NHL assets, which IMO is the reason the prices were so low on Vanek, Moulson, Gaborik, etc this year.

 

[usefulfiction]

This is very likely a stretch, but could this be translated as, "Maybe a crazed hockey market might not be my 1st choice, and going somewhere where I don't have to be the lead dog would be nice?"



I honestly would love a guy like Spezza in Dallas ... or even Statsny or whoever. I might be pessimistic about the reality of that happening because let's face it the odds are really not overwhelming in any single team's favor to land one particular player usually. You usually have to get lucky as much as be smart.

Anyway ... it probably is just wishful thinking and trying to manipulate that statement to fit Dallas' situation ... or maybe there's a chance a city like Dallas would be very attractive, and a team like the Stars would allow him to just be a great player rather than the franchise player. A half a dozen or more locations offer similar advantages (although all wouldn't be realistic destinations).

That was my first reaction as well.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

The surprising thing is Cole. He did say, "I think,' or, "it seems," like they want to keep him. I honestly assumed he'd want out after sitting some playoff games ... justifiably IMO. That said, he never looked right after his late season injury so maybe even he accepted that he was off. If they keep him though that's $4 million and a $4.5 million cap hit. There were moments he justified that contract last year, but like Horcoff they were brief. Hopefully both can have a more consistent year. I'd honestly say Cole probably had a better year, and people aren't on Horcoff right now mainly because his success was more recent and during a significant portion of the season.

Before I was OK with having Cole around for another year, but looking ahead there is just so many bodies now I'm not sure. It would be nice if all three could be bought-out and replaced with Glennie, McKenzie, and player(s) through UFA/Trade.

 

[Zrhutch]

You can get a mid round pick for Cole if you shop him around, possibly with money retained. No sense buying him out if you can get something for him.

 

[Stars99Lobo37]

Has there been any talk with Ranford from Texas getting a contract with the big club? I've only watched him during this playoff run, but he's been fantastic and is only 22.

 

[Zrhutch]

I believe Lile had an article about the topic yesterday on DBD

 

[piqued]

I'm not convinced Ranford has done enough to earn an ELC, but if he gets one it would certainly be a better investment than in the Tristan Kings of the world. His play away from the puck leaves a lot to be desired and I'm not sure I see a lot of projectability beyond the AHL level. He does have a nice spark to his game in the O-zone though.

 

[BigG44]

I wouldn't be surprised if his AHL playoff performance forced their hand to sign Ranford. Look at a guy like Roussel. He'd done less in his AHL career, and Dallas signed him away from Vancouver. He'd been with Boston as well but I can't remember if it was with their AHL team, ECHL, or both.

Point is ... he's very young for an AHL undrafted free agent, and his goal scoring blossomed in the playoffs when it mattered most. I think the fact is he's earned an ELC, and the only question is will Dallas sign him before a different team moves in.

As an undrafted free agent, him playing for Texas has no special benefit for Dallas under the rules of the CBA. He's 100% free and clear to sign anywhere. That said even without a rule giving them a leg up, I'd say Dallas has the edge to sign him just because of the opportunity they gave him with Texas ... that's still no certainty.

 

[BigG44]

I missed this pretty interesting quote from two weeks ago.

Nill wasn’t tipping his hand, but if you read between the lines, this team would like more right-handed defensemen. Ruff helped put together Canada’s defense for the Olympics and there four lefties and four righties. He is on the record saying he prefers and even split.

Nill acknowledged that.

“It’s something we need,” Nill said. “We’re lucky that we have Klingberg coming along, but whether he’s ready or not for next year, we’ll have to find out. But those guys are very valuable, they’re hard to find, and that’s something we need to add.”

This leaves me a bit torn honestly. I want to add guy like Stralman or Fayne via free agency, but I also know Nill wasn't that enamored with the field. He called the entire class secondary ... but that's honestly a reasonable description for those guys. They aren't top end talent, they likely won't require top end salary, and they still fill a need.

At the same time, every conversation about Daley or Goligoski from Nill would make you think it's reasonable to assume they're going no where this off-season, IMO. Nill's not a guy I believe is in the business of making lateral moves .... subtracting one of them for a guy like Fayne or Stralman would be just that. However, adding one of those players to those two would make the team better.

It'll be interesting to see how they move forward. Will they keep Daley and Goligoski together? Can those two physically hold up to 82 games playing mostly bigger Western Conference teams? Do they choose to nothing which honestly isn't an awful strategy? It's a boring one though that might mean another year of mediocre defense.

 

[glovesave_35]

If you subtract a LD and add a RD and both are roughly equal players, it sounds like Nill and Ruff would view that as an improvement, not a lateral move.

The other thing is that it's possible to read that quote about Klingberg as an endorsement that he has a very good chance of starting the year in Dallas if he is fully healthy. It didn't sound like he was saying "ready" to play in the NHL, it sounded like a GM talking about an injured player. It's obviously possible he didn't communicate that tidbit as effectively as he intended but that's what I take away from that comment.

 

[NFKappaB]

I missed this pretty interesting quote from two weeks ago.



This leaves me a bit torn honestly. I want to add guy like Stralman or Fayne via free agency, but I also know Nill wasn't that enamored with the field. He called the entire class secondary ... but that's honestly a reasonable description for those guys. They aren't top end talent, they likely won't require top end salary, and they still fill a need.

At the same time, every conversation about Daley or Goligoski from Nill would make you think it's reasonable to assume they're going no where this off-season, IMO. Nill's not a guy I believe is in the business of making lateral moves .... subtracting one of them for a guy like Fayne or Stralman would be just that. However, adding one of those players to those two would make the team better.

It'll be interesting to see how they move forward. Will they keep Daley and Goligoski together? Can those two physically hold up to 82 games playing mostly bigger Western Conference teams? Do they choose to nothing which honestly isn't an awful strategy? It's a boring one though that might mean another year of mediocre defense.

It seems we have such a logjam at D right now....will be interesting to see what happens this summer.

Nemeth
Daley
Goligoski
Gonchar (trade?)
Connaughton (trade?)
Dillon
Rome (buyout?)
Benn

With Oleksiak and Klingberg on the doorstep.

 

[glovesave_35]

It seems we have such a logjam at D right now....will be interesting to see what happens this summer.

Nemeth
Daley
Goligoski
Gonchar (trade?)
Connaughton (trade?)
Dillon
Rome (buyout?)
Benn

With Oleksiak and Klingberg on the doorstep.

I can't say I've ever heard much of anything positive from Nill about Connauton. He hasn't trashed him but I can't think of a single time he really gave him an endorsement of any kind. I think the chances of at least two of Gonchar, Connauton, and Rome will be gone this summer. Then there isn't much of a log jam.

 

[BigG44]

If you subtract a LD and add a RD and both are roughly equal players, it sounds like Nill and Ruff would view that as an improvement, not a lateral move.

If the LD is Gonchar and the RD is one of those guys yes, but most have already penciled him out of the lineup. Otherwise ... it's not. Quality players trump handedness.

A group of Benn, Connauton, Daley, Dillon, Nemeth + say Stralman is not slightly worse than Benn, Daley, Dillon, Goligoski, Nemeth and Stralman. There's a big gap in talent and depth between those two. I still honestly have some faith in Connauton's development, but I don't think he or anyone of the other prospects is so close they deserve to be penciled in. Even as a group, I don't know that anyone should be confident to say that without a doubt one of those guys will be NHL ready in October. It just doesn't make much sense to me to start subtracting guys too soon.

If and when Connauton, Oleksiak and Klingberg are ready you can easily start moving those guys. Defensemen are valuable and always needed, and we're not even close to talking about bad contracts. Let someone force your hand at this point rather than just hoping it works out. None of these guys are playing like Ritchie ... or even Dillon a year ago and Nemeth now ... to make you really believe they're beating down the door.

IMO ... I think it's a stretch to say he's only talking about health with Klingberg FWIW. He's talented, but just look at a guy like Rundblad or any one of Dallas' recent European defenders. Rundblad destroyed the SHL ... even more so than Klingberg. There's an adjustment to the North American game that doesn't often begin in the NHL. I'm not saying lets be pessimistic or anything .. it's being realistic. He's a great player, and most European defenders ... hell most defenders ... are almost always better off starting in the AHL. I don't think you plan for the exception.

 

[BigG44]

I can't say I've ever heard much of anything positive from Nill about Connauton. He hasn't trashed him but I can't think of a single time he really gave him an endorsement of any kind. I think the chances of at least two of Gonchar, Connauton, and Rome will be gone this summer. Then there isn't much of a log jam.

Assuming Gonchar and Rome are gone, the only way moving Connauton makes much of any sense is if they add two defenders. He's honestly a perfect 7 because of his contract and he's still young with some upside.

He'd be relatively easy to move if a guy like Klingberg or Oleksiak forced their way into the Top 6 ... forcing a guy like Benn down to 7 which might be a pretty tall order.

I'd be pretty surprised if Dallas added two defenders though.

 

[Johno]

As I view it, replacing any of our Dmen (excl. Dillon and maybe Nemeth) with Strålman would not be a lateral move, IMO.
Strålman with his skill and right-handedness is an improvement.
Fayne, maybe not so much. He doesn't likely replace the overall play of Daley or Goose.

That said, if our top four looks like the following, I wouldn't mind if it was Gonchar on the 3rd pair.

Dillon - Green
Nemeth - Strålman

 

[BigG44]

As I view it, replacing any of our Dmen (excl. Dillon and maybe Nemeth) with Strålman would not be a lateral move, IMO.
Strålman with his skill and right-handedness is an improvement.
Fayne, maybe not so much. He doesn't likely replace the overall play of Daley or Goose.

That said, if our top four looks like the following, I wouldn't mind if it was Gonchar on the 3rd pair.
n

How would it not be? You still have a below average 3rd pair with Gonchar versus adding a great piece like Stralman and thus "upgrading" your 3rd pair with a guy like Daley or Goligoski.

I'm confused a bit ... like I'm missing something glove and you might be saying.

Why is more depth and talent a bad thing pushing out inferior players rather than just swapping good players for good players?

 

[BigG44]

Basically .... what's more beneficial to this D:

Daley-Stralman
Benn-Dillon
Connauton-Nemeth

OR say ... hmm this is ugly keeping Goligoski ... I can't even figure out something reasonable.

Benn-Dillon
Goligoski-Nemeth
Connauton-Stralman

VS a much stronger lineup of

Goligoski-Daley
Benn-Dillon
Nemeth-Stralman

Pretty much any night you could likely rearrange those pairs label as 1, 2, or 3, and you don't have much of a weakness. They're not great by any stretch, but they're much better.

 

[BigG44]

I don't claim to have extensive knowledge of advanced stats, but I'm no Brian Burke either.

I thought this article about Stralman did an excellent job of explaining some of the stats to someone that might not be as familiar with them. Some of the articles out there might not be as easy to read.

The other thing worth mentioning is the article shows that Stralman continues to duplicate his success with the Rangers. He's been one of their best in the regular season, another article came out demonstrating that was the case so far in the playoffs, and now this article shows him out performing his peers in the Cup Final.

The guy was an afterthought for me like most people, but paying attention to the facts .. and then now focusing on him when he's on the ice has been pretty revealing.

 

[BigG44]

I saw the story last night on my phone, but Buffalo wants to trade back into the first round if at all possible. I didn't post this in the draft thread because I think it's unlikely Dallas would take two of 31, 39, or 49 for 14th. That said .... 31 and 39 might be enough for Nill ... I just doubt it.

Don't know anything about this guy, but Michael Pachla (Hockey Buzz) speculated in a different story that these players might be available.

The player list might include F, Luke Adam, G, Matt Hackett, as well as defensemen D, Chad Ruwhedel who are all restricted free agents. Young roster players like F Marcus Foligno and D Jamie McBain, who are also RFA's, and G, Jhonas Enroth could be on the move as well.

None of the aforementioned would get you into the first round alone, but packaged with a second-rounder or two, it might be enough to get you into the mid-lower portion of it.

Probably the most interesting name floating around is that of veteran defenseman Christian Ehrhoff. There may be at least a team or two that would take a long, hard look at acquiring him as well. Ehrhoff with a second rounder or two would have the most value for a move up.

 

[Chaos]

I dont think 31 and 39 would be enough for 14. But if someone doesnt fall to 14, I wouldnt be opposed to maybe even trading down twice. If you could pull it off, trade back with St. Louis for 21 and 33, then trade back again from 21 to 31 and 39.

Still very unlikely, but with there seeming to be a big glob of 20-40 similar type players after the top tier, something like that would give you the best chance at grabbing four similar guys and hoping to really hit it big with one of them.

 

[Henderson33]

Here's some more news on Spezza

#Sens GM Murray on Spezza 'I don't want to trade the guy, really, and I know I likely won't get the value I should get for him'.

I wonder if he means he won't get what he has been rumored to be asking for (1st, roster player and a prospect) or if he means he could be getting more than that, but won't be able to.

 

[BigG44]

I dont think 31 and 39 would be enough for 14. But if someone doesnt fall to 14, I wouldnt be opposed to maybe even trading down twice. If you could pull it off, trade back with St. Louis for 21 and 33, then trade back again from 21 to 31 and 39.

Still very unlikely, but with there seeming to be a big glob of 20-40 similar type players after the top tier, something like that would give you the best chance at grabbing four similar guys and hoping to really hit it big with one of them.

I think if you're trading down with Buffalo, a player is involved which is why I posted that list. I'm very skeptical that Ehrhoff would be packaged with a 2nd round pick for a 1st, but if that was the case .... I think it's a no brainier .... potentially even if it's 49 + Ehrhoff for 14.