Value of: Igor Shesterkin's next contract

[StreetHawk]

Player decline happens sooner than 34-36.

it can start around 29 or so. What you re referencing is called recency or survivor bias by just looking at those who made it to 34+ and ignoring those who dropped out at 29+

the thing is…it’s not easy predicting when the drop occurs.

unless the player is the type to drive ticket/ gate revenue at 30+, you don’t give contracts to last more than 3 years.

The better players are still getting their contracts even when they begin at 28 for maximum term.

It's the way the CBA is setup. Top free agents do not sign for 3-4 year terms around age 30. The push for the 6-8 years to take them to 36-38.

Are the NYR developing another option after Shesh? Lindblom, whom they drafted in 2018 in R2, was in the ECHL for basically all of last season. So, this has to be an NHL year for him if he has any future in the NHL.

 

[Detroit Knights]

If New York isn’t going to pay him, send him to San Jose and we’ll sign him long term and pay him handsomely.

He’s still young enough to rise with the upcoming core. (Plus next coupe years of high end draft picks)

be careful....florida had the same ideas with bobrovsky

(no i don't think they are the same skill level)

 

[Habs Halifax]

Player decline happens sooner than 34-36.

it can start around 29 or so. What you re referencing is called recency or survivor bias by just looking at those who made it to 34+ and ignoring those who dropped out at 29+

the thing is…it’s not easy predicting when the drop occurs.

unless the player is the type to drive ticket/ gate revenue at 30+, you don’t give contracts to last more than 3 years.

Different levels of decline. It's modest from 30-35 ish for most of the top level players. It's not easy to nail down for each player so the smart managers look at their usage. With goalies, usage is a huge factor. With forwards and defense, I tend to look at their skating. For a guy like Gallagher, you kind of new he would not have good 30+ years with his average at best skating level. Same can be said for Lucic. Perry is another example.

 

[StreetHawk]

Igor plays for NYR. It's a premium destination team. If he likes it there, I think both sides will work something out. Plus, in 2025, which team's goalie will be off the books to lineup perfectly to try to get him?

 

[Stickpucker]

NYR don't give him what he thinks he's worth and he will give a big middle finger and sign with NJ or Carolina.

 

[Kupo]

NYR don't give him what he thinks he's worth and he will give a big middle finger and sign with NJ or Carolina.

OMG SO WE BETTER GIVE HIM EVERYTHING HE WANTS OR ELSE WE'ER DOOMED!

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How can you possibly sign mercenary bums like Trouba and Panarin to huge overpays and then claim you are too poor to pay your best player?

If we don’t pay him, this is a hopeless franchise. He deserves every cent. As a fan of the team you hope it’s as low as possible, but like with Fox’s contract, you can’t really complain too much when it comes to locking up your superstars. If you get a chance to do it, you have to. You simply hope they want to give a discount. If not, you are at their mercy.

 

[Kupo]

How can you possibly sign mercenary bums like Trouba and Panarin to huge overpays and then claim you are too poor to pay your best player?

If we don’t pay him, this is a hopeless franchise. He deserves every cent. As a fan of the team you hope it’s as low as possible, but like with Fox’s contract, you can’t really complain too much when it comes to locking up your superstars. If you get a chance to do it, you have to. You simply hope they want to give a discount. If not, you are at their mercy.

Mercenary bums? Trouba's only played for 1 other franchise in his career, and Panarin 2. Neither player is your traditional mercenary. Both signed their extensions before the Covid collapse.

If it's a reasonable extension you do it. If he wants 10+ though?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Mercenary bums? Trouba's only played for 1 other franchise in his career, and Panarin 2. Neither player is your traditional mercenary. Both signed their extensions before the Covid collapse.

If it's a reasonable extension you do it. If he wants 10+ though?

They both came here for the money or NY lifestyle after they were with other franchises. They aren’t here because they are lifelong NYR fans and wanted to give us a discount.

If he wants 10, you do it, and get rid of others. I wouldn’t think twice about it. It must be done.

 

[Kupo]

They both came here for the money or NY lifestyle after they were with other franchises. They aren’t here because they are lifelong NYR fans and wanted to give us a discount.

If he wants 10, you do it, and get rid of others. I wouldn’t think twice about it. It must be done.

How many players in the league are life long fans playing for their favorite team?

Answer: Not many.

Worth noting that Panarin had higher offers but chose to play here, so he didn't chase the biggest dollar amount.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How many players in the league are life long fans playing for their favorite team?

Answer: Not many.

Worth noting that Panarin had higher offers but chose to play here, so he didn't chase the biggest dollar amount.

I think it’s important in the NHL to sign your drafted/traded for and developed guys that have been with you from the beginning or close to it.

I think UFA’s or big contract traded for players are not a good way to build a team.

 

[DJN21]

He turns 28 and 29 this contract. He turns 30 a couple months into his new contract season. Just doesnt seem smart to pay a ridiculous amount of money. I guess it will depend where NYR see their prospects. Panarin's and Kreider's contract will be coming to an end shortly after. Zibanejad will be 2 years older.


He doesn't have to be ready. It's 2 seasons away. I think it'll come down to how well our prospects take off.

Laf and Kakko blast off!!!...oh wait

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him move to NJ if the rags don't want to extend him.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I love Igor, but I'm not here for the decline contract that becomes disgusting 3 years in. His next contract will have him turn 30 a few months in. 7 years at 9ish just doesn’t sound good.

Well a top 5 goalie in the NHL

Sorokin Saros Helle Vasi & Shesterkin my #1 tier no ranking between them as a FYI

I can guarantee The Rangers are not letting that go and not letting any team on the hunt for a high-end goalie to snag him up. You might as well say good bye to the Rangers cup aspirations with that move. I can see 9.5 to 10.5 with the cap increase.

I saw a poster say Sarokin cap%. That seems fair for 7 years.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I'd say there's a slight possibility he's dealt. Obvious it determines how the Rangers do, but they're getting older and the players that should be taking the mantle are failing.

That said, he probably gets 10 at 5, maybe 6 years.

 

[Kupo]

I think it’s important in the NHL to sign your drafted/traded for and developed guys that have been with you from the beginning or close to it.

I think UFA’s or big contract traded for players are not a good way to build a team.

I don't disagree. We did that with our last superstar netminder. We didn't have the talent around him that we have around Shesty now though so I'm not in full disagreement. I'm not too worried about re-signing Shesterkin to a 7/8 year deal as a 30 year old because he doesn't have the same amount of mileage that Lundqvist had at that same age. Lundqvist must have had around 500+ NHL games around 30, whereas Igor will be around the 320~ range.

A bigger concern to me is a 10M+ cap hit to a 30 year old goalie who has had a bit of history with injuries. The Cap hit and term have to make sense. My two favorite players were Richter and Lundqvist and I myself played goalie so I'm admittingly very biased when it comes to the importance of goaltending, but that doesn't mean I'll agree to handing him a blank check.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don't disagree. We did that with our last superstar netminder. We didn't have the talent around him that we have around Shesty now though so I'm not in full disagreement. I'm not too worried about re-signing Shesterkin to a 7/8 year deal as a 30 year old because he doesn't have the same amount of mileage that Lundqvist had at that same age. Lundqvist must have had around 500+ NHL games around 30, whereas Igor will be around the 320~ range.

A bigger concern to me is a 10M+ cap hit to a 30 year old goalie who has had a bit of history with injuries. The Cap hit and term have to make sense. My two favorite players were Richter and Lundqvist and I myself played goalie so I'm admittingly very biased when it comes to the importance of goaltending, but that doesn't mean I'll agree to handing him a blank check.

If he wants 4M more than he’s worth, sure. There’s some limit to everything. There’s not too many players who have completely unrealistic asks for contracts, so I assume it won’t be that. I just feel like the discussion has become one where a lot of people don’t want to pay him anything resembling fair value. A lot will point to Hank not winning a Cup. They think we shouldn’t try that strategy again of committing a lot of money to a goalie.

I think the people that point to Hank not winning a Cup are missing the point. He got to a Cup final, was a nail biter in a game 7 of the ECF from another, and also won a President’s Trophy. There’s only 1 winner each year. We were probably the best team of Hank’s era to not win the Cup. It has to be someone that has that honor. I don’t think it has anything to do with his salary or how that allowed the team to be built around him. I think it’s variance that didn’t work in our favor. I’d build the team around the goalie again.

 

[TGWL]

Laf and Kakko blast off!!!...oh wait

I meant full picture on prospect and not just those guys.

 

[seafoam]

He’ll take a similar contract to Sorokin.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I'd guess a bit more than Sorokin, but the next two seasons will have a lot to say about it.


7 years would be age 29-36 (Dec birthdate). Hellebuyck was just signed from age 31-37 at $8.5M. It's the cost of doing business. The major question is how much milage does Shesterkin have and is it like Price? Price played huge minutes most if not all of his career and just was not the same at 30+. Is Vasi going to go through age 30+ injuries as well? He's got lots of milage on him too.

Igor didn't play in the NHL until what, like 4 seasons ago and under Gallant had light workloads. Too light if you ask me. I don't think he has that much mileage on him.

 

[Stephen]

Carey Price had over 550 games played by the time he signed his big contract that started in 2018-19 at age 32. Shesterkin has 161 NHL games played to date won't be anywhere near the same games played totals even if he plays 60 games per year over the next 4. But if the Rangers were to prematurely bail on Shesterkin that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world either.

 

[VanillaCoke]

9.55

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

He could easily get 10+ on a 6 or 7 year deal. But I could see him taking less than that too, maybe something like 8x8.5

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Whether in NY or elsewhere, he will get paid + deserves it.

Sanderson + Pinto + cap dump Tara
for
Shesty + Jones + elc Perrault

Sandy on last elc yr, then extension kicks in, so above deal to be ballpark cap compliant manageable
Sens can be given permission to discuss $$ extension if nec
They can flip Korpi to a G desperate team

Rs will gamble on Garand, who does not have to match Shesty day 1, just be good enuf as he learns.
Rs stabilizing D going forward
Sanderson-Fox
KAM - Schneider
is a huge +.

8 yrs + of Sandman at 8 -- which looks good later on in that term -- = same you would have to pay for Shesty -- makes sense.

Sens are moving a foundation piece but Vez quality add for next 6-8 yrs helps win many games.
If Igor will not extend, can still get a ransom from multiple suitors

The Sens are not trading away one of their players that they view as a cornerstone piece for a goalie hitting the backside years of his career. Your proposals are always the same for the opposing team, trading off their future stars for the Rangers older players. Sorry, but this makes no sense for the Sens.

 

[AirGut]

I think the only question is what the length would be.
I could see 6 years at 9M being a good middle-ground